Menzie Chinn
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mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
5.5K followers 720 following 1.1K posts
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.
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Reposted by Menzie Chinn
duffelblog.com
NEW: Saudi crown prince gifts Trump solid gold bone saw www.duffelblog.com/saudi-crown-...
Saudi crown prince gifts Trump solid gold bone saw
Kingdom's sharp diplomatic gesture cuts through red tape and flesh
www.duffelblog.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:33 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
EJ Antoni identifies a vast conspiracy at BLS - "edged up" are fightin' words #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 20, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
josephpolitano.bsky.social
A picture of Brazilian President Lula De Silva with the caption “Do Nothing. Win”
November 20, 2025 at 11:16 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
UPDATE: Mild upside surprise on NFP, private NFP (given August numbers downwardly revised) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 20, 2025 at 6:19 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Nowcasted GDP (4.2% q/q AR) and predicted employment growth diverge; nowcasted GDP and "core GDP" aren't back to pre-Trump trends #EconSky @AtlantaFed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 20, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
erikamcentarfer.bsky.social
BLS confirms that October jobs report will not be released, but that October payroll numbers will be published with the November report
November 19, 2025 at 5:46 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
S&P500, BTC and VIX; are we past peak? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 18, 2025 at 10:10 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Were per square foot housing prices constant in real terms 1978-2020? #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 18, 2025 at 8:47 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Some time series on "house affordability" for the skeptical #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 17, 2025 at 11:31 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
How far apart is Miran from Taylor? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 17, 2025 at 6:35 AM
mchinn.bsky.social
AIER Everyday Price Index trajectory vs. 2024 stochastic trend #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 16, 2025 at 10:10 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
On coffee, little respite and mostly talk re: grocery-related tariff relief #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 16, 2025 at 1:33 AM
mchinn.bsky.social
How to detect "wag the dog" behavior: Epstein/Venezuela edition #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 15, 2025 at 8:49 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
What about deportations/removals as well as tariffs in housing costs? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 14, 2025 at 9:51 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
EJ Antoni (who thought a parameter was small -- when it's actually big -- because he put a percentage variable in decimal form on the LHS, and percentage point variable on the RHS) proposes improvements to the BLS - yeesh #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 14, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
benzipperer.org
Deportations actually _increase_ housing prices because they shrink the construction industry.

The reduction in new houses being built swamps effects from lower demand
Figure 9 from a paper by Troup Howard, Mengqi Wang, and Dayin Zhang showing the house price response to the Secure Communities immigration enforcement policy
November 13, 2025 at 10:52 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
@nber.org Bus Cycle Dating Cmte key indicators - some guesses and last available observation points #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 13, 2025 at 8:38 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Ground coffee in September up 30% since January (graph below uses log scales) #Econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 13, 2025 at 7:39 PM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
erikamcentarfer.bsky.social
All of BLS has been furloughed since October 1st. That means no one was collecting data in Oct. You can’t just walk into a Costco in mid-November and find out what the price of a good was in October. That’s why an October CPI isn’t possible.
November 12, 2025 at 8:25 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
No October CPI or employment release for you! #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 12, 2025 at 9:37 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
This announcement on X gave me the biggest guffaw in *years*! Thanks to EJ Antoni #EconSky (and can anybody tell me if Truflation is using Pasche updated every year, or some weird Fisher ideal index?)
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 11, 2025 at 10:46 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Torsten Slok's CAPE/Buffett Indicator + Ed Yardeni's Mag-7 fwd PE ratio #EconSky my Q: will consumption be sustained if there's a crash?
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 11, 2025 at 8:22 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Up, up and away (instantaneous core inflation per @janeeckhout.bsky.social not coming down, contra Hasset, Bessent #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 11, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
justinwolfers.bsky.social
He campaigned on cutting the cost of living, but he has governed to raise it: regressive tariffs, immigration, fiddling with the Fed, cutting renewable energy, and firing the person whose job was to measure all of this.
November 11, 2025 at 5:46 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
NFP in October: Up or Down (relative to August)? Some guesses #ADP #GoldmanSachs #RevelioLabs #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 11, 2025 at 5:47 PM