Menzie Chinn
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mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
5.5K followers 720 following 1.1K posts
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.
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mchinn.bsky.social
EJ Antoni on reserves held by Fed, in $ #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 21, 2025 at 10:22 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Manufacturing employment, hours in September - where's the manufacturing renaissance I was promised? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 21, 2025 at 8:49 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
No October CPI for you (ever), but nice hole in the ground where the East Wing used to be -- thinking about "essential" during a shutdown. Hope you don't have any TIPS #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Michigan consumer sentiment near all-time low (which was in June 2025). Using EJ Antoni definition, we're in a recession #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 21, 2025 at 5:52 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
See orange line here:
November 21, 2025 at 3:58 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
EJ Antoni identifies a vast conspiracy at BLS - "edged up" are fightin' words #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 20, 2025 at 11:22 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
UPDATE: Mild upside surprise on NFP, private NFP (given August numbers downwardly revised) #EconSky
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November 20, 2025 at 6:19 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Nowcasted GDP (4.2% q/q AR) and predicted employment growth diverge; nowcasted GDP and "core GDP" aren't back to pre-Trump trends #EconSky @AtlantaFed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 20, 2025 at 3:42 AM
mchinn.bsky.social
S&P500, BTC and VIX; are we past peak? #EconSky
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November 18, 2025 at 10:10 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Were per square foot housing prices constant in real terms 1978-2020? #EconSky

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November 18, 2025 at 8:47 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Some time series on "house affordability" for the skeptical #EconSky
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November 17, 2025 at 11:31 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
How far apart is Miran from Taylor? #EconSky
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November 17, 2025 at 6:35 AM
mchinn.bsky.social
AIER Everyday Price Index trajectory vs. 2024 stochastic trend #EconSky
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November 16, 2025 at 10:10 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
On coffee, little respite and mostly talk re: grocery-related tariff relief #EconSky

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November 16, 2025 at 1:33 AM
mchinn.bsky.social
How to detect "wag the dog" behavior: Epstein/Venezuela edition #EconSky
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November 15, 2025 at 8:49 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
What about deportations/removals as well as tariffs in housing costs? #EconSky
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November 14, 2025 at 9:51 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
EJ Antoni (who thought a parameter was small -- when it's actually big -- because he put a percentage variable in decimal form on the LHS, and percentage point variable on the RHS) proposes improvements to the BLS - yeesh #EconSky
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November 14, 2025 at 6:39 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
@nber.org Bus Cycle Dating Cmte key indicators - some guesses and last available observation points #EconSky

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November 13, 2025 at 8:38 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Ground coffee in September up 30% since January (graph below uses log scales) #Econsky
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November 13, 2025 at 7:39 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
No October CPI or employment release for you! #EconSky

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November 12, 2025 at 9:37 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
This announcement on X gave me the biggest guffaw in *years*! Thanks to EJ Antoni #EconSky (and can anybody tell me if Truflation is using Pasche updated every year, or some weird Fisher ideal index?)
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 11, 2025 at 10:46 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Torsten Slok's CAPE/Buffett Indicator + Ed Yardeni's Mag-7 fwd PE ratio #EconSky my Q: will consumption be sustained if there's a crash?
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 11, 2025 at 8:22 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
Up, up and away (instantaneous core inflation per @janeeckhout.bsky.social not coming down, contra Hasset, Bessent #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 11, 2025 at 7:32 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
NFP in October: Up or Down (relative to August)? Some guesses #ADP #GoldmanSachs #RevelioLabs #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
November 11, 2025 at 5:47 PM
mchinn.bsky.social
@calculatedrisk.bsky.social on negative equity #EconSky
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November 11, 2025 at 2:09 AM