Claudia Sahm
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claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm
@claudia-sahm.bsky.social
24K followers 400 following 470 posts

macro, fiscal, Fed. creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator. Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Substack.

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Claudia Rae Sahm is an American economist, currently serving as Chief Economist for New Century Advisors. She is also the founder of Sahm Consulting. Claudia was formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, where she worked in various capacities from 2007 to 2019. Sahm specializes in macroeconomics and household finance. She is best known for the development of the Sahm rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) indicator for identifying recessions in real-time. .. more

Economics 57%
Business 32%
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claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 18h
Context. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-08/hassett-says-irresponsible-to-specify-six-month-fed-rate-plan?srnd=homepage-americas The many efforts to undermine the credibility of the current Fed are what's irresponsible.
Hassett Says ‘Irresponsible’ to Specify Six-Month Fed Rate Plan
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said it would be irresponsible for the Federal Reserve to lay out a plan for where it aims to take interest rates over the next six months,...
bloomberg.com

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 18h
When has the Fed ever specified a "six month plan?"

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 1d
Another ‘star’ of the disgrace post.

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 1d
Goodness, give Harald what he wants. He's earned it.
florianederer.bsky.social Florian Ederer @florianederer.bsky.social · 1d
Amazing things happening on X

Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Richard S.J. Tol, Silvia Secchi

florianederer.bsky.social
Florian Ederer @florianederer.bsky.social · 1d
Amazing things happening on X

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

cheesles.bsky.social
Cheesles @cheesles.bsky.social · 3d
A helpful and informative read from @claudia-sahm.bsky.social . So go get helped and informed.

#econsky
#finsky

www.imf.org/en/publicati...
Alternative Data and Monetary Policy
Central bankers are tapping nontraditional data sources for a more complete picture of the economy
www.imf.org

Substack
The Future of Data

Today should have been Jobs Day, with the November employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but the federal statistical agencies are still working through delays due to the 43-day government shutdown that ended last month. Instead, this week offered another raft of private-sector and administrative data on the labor ma…

Reposts 3 3d

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 3d
If President can remove Cook, he can remove any Governor, including Chair. It puts Fed under direct control of White House.

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 3d
Without a majority of the Board, the Bank Presidents are 'safe' ... again the Supreme Court case is critical.

Reposted by Paul Davies, Trevon D. Logan, Aaron Sojourner , and 1 more

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 3d
I have participated in the 'Fed Chair sweepstakes' like any good Fed watcher. It matters. But **absolutely pivotal** for next year is the Supreme Court decision on Lisa Cook. If the President can remove members of the Board without review, it's game over for Fed independence.
claudia-sahm.bsky.social Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 3d
“Big changes that could happen at the Fed, in terms of the Supreme Court allowing the president to remove a Fed governor,” said Claudia Sahm. “I think at the end of the day, the economy’s going to drive where rates go. But it could be a pretty uncomfortable ride.” www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
Federal funds rate predicted to go lower in 2026
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates next week as predicted, and Kevin Hassett becomes Fed Chair, where will rates be at this time next year?
www.marketplace.org

Reposted by Paul Davies, Scott A. Imberman

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 3d
“Big changes that could happen at the Fed, in terms of the Supreme Court allowing the president to remove a Fed governor,” said Claudia Sahm. “I think at the end of the day, the economy’s going to drive where rates go. But it could be a pretty uncomfortable ride.” www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
Federal funds rate predicted to go lower in 2026
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates next week as predicted, and Kevin Hassett becomes Fed Chair, where will rates be at this time next year?
www.marketplace.org

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 3d
To be clear, that's a bit of data release humor. OMB makes the final call on the release schedule, so ask Russ.

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 3d
In honor of the missing employment report ...
ivanthek.bsky.social Ivan the K ™☑️ @ivanthek.bsky.social · 3d
Why is Sept PCE a 10am release instead of 8:30am?

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

ivanthek.bsky.social
Ivan the K ™☑️ @ivanthek.bsky.social · 3d
Why is Sept PCE a 10am release instead of 8:30am?

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 4d
It’s good that inflation haven’t been an issue for decades.

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 4d
Agree. it’s clear something is not right. then it’s a bit like a doctor trying to diagnose when I patient says they're unwell.

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 4d
Hard to craft policy solutions on emotions//vibes.

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 4d
It’s good we were out of practice.

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 4d
I have tried to think a lot about what it is that's driving the intense focus on prices. The increase in prices over the past five years is notable and has continued to build, even as one-year inflation has improved.

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 4d
There's some economics in here, but a whole lotta politics, too. I am very worried that we are going to get some very bad policies in response.

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 4d
Not making light of this sentiment, but isn't "the cost of living" almost *every* year the worst ever? Prices keep rising.
carlquintanilla.bsky.social Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 4d
POLITICO: “.. Almost half — 46 percent — say the cost of living in the U.S. is the worst they can ever remember it being, a view held by 37 percent of 2024 Trump voters.”

@politico.com
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...

Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Scott A. Imberman

carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 4d
POLITICO: “.. Almost half — 46 percent — say the cost of living in the U.S. is the worst they can ever remember it being, a view held by 37 percent of 2024 Trump voters.”

@politico.com
www.politico.com/news/2025/12...

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 4d
The five-year review of Reserve Bank Presidents occurs early next year, well before the Chair turns over. It's very hard to see a majority of the current Board pushing forward Bessent's idea.