Karl Whelan
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karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan
@karlwhelan.bsky.social
1.9K followers 670 following 190 posts

Professor of Economics, University College Dublin. www.karlwhelan.com has research, teaching materials, stuff on the ECB and even a few old blog posts. Remember them? Currently doing research on betting and prediction markets and some macro things. .. more

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karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Nov 20
You can find out more about me at karlwhelan.com

My research is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...

Teaching materials on macroeconomics and money and banking at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...

My work on ECB monetary policy for the European Parliament is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
Karl Whelan | Economist, University College Dublin
karlwhelan.com

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Menzie Chinn, Steven S. Smith , and 2 more

justinwolfers.bsky.social
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 3d
This chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 5d
"I didn't want to hurt this person's feelings by outright rejecting their invitation to go for a drink. But I decided to write about it in the Guardian."

Reposted by Karl Whelan

theguardian.com
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 5d
Want to avoid an invitation? Try the 'soft no' | Polly Hudson
Want to avoid an invitation? Try the 'soft no' | Polly Hudson
I didn’t know how to refuse the offer of a drink without causing offence – until I learned how to kindly demur, writes Polly Hudson
www.theguardian.com

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 6d
Reporting always focuses on outrage rather than benefits. I lived in this area from 2007-15 and know it well. Those golf "amenities" (driving range and pitch and putt) are of limited use to most locals. But they could make for many homes in a nice part of Dublin.

www.irishtimes.com/ireland/dubl...
‘How dare you’: South Dublin residents vent at plan to redesignate golf amenities for housing
Majority of objections to council proposals relate to Stepaside driving range and Jamestown pitch and putt
www.irishtimes.com

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 8d
And you if you’ve never heard Liz Fraser sing it, do yourself a favour and take 3 minutes now.

youtu.be/HFWKJ2FUiAQ?...
This Mortal Coil - Song To The Siren (Official Video)
YouTube video by 4AD
youtu.be

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 8d
If you guys all know about this before and didn’t tell me, I’ll be super annoyed!

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 8d
Somehow I had never seen this before. Tim Buckley singing Song to the Siren on a Monkees TV special in 1968. Incredible.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaa2...
Tim Buckley - Song to the Siren (The Monkees '68) Remastered HD
YouTube video by TheRightEarOfNash
www.youtube.com

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 9d
Some material for Chairman-designate Warsh to study. Most of my undergraduates can figure this stuff out so I reckon he can get on top of it before his hearings.

www.karlwhelan.com/IMB/part11.pdf
www.karlwhelan.com

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 9d
He's a spoofer.

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 9d
Would love to be a fly on the wall at the cat-on-mat ample reserves briefings. Some old colleagues of mine working super hard to be as professional as possible while telling the unvarnished truths.

Reposted by David M. Farrell

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 9d
Shorter answer. I don't see a Trump majority FOMC during his (current ....) term.

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 9d
Warsh will likely replace Miran. Powell will likely quit and be replaced. I think the rest of the board of Governors have terms beyond Trump term. FOMC has the 7 Governors and 5 regional bank presidents, who are appointed by their boards (with BoG approval).

Reposted by David M. Farrell

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 9d
Not that anyone asked me but, yes, Warsh is obviously an unqualified hack. In terms of the impact he could have on policy, however, there aren't enough Trump appointees on the current FOMC for the commitee to be pursuaded by Chairman Warsh on policy. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-bad-heir...
A Bad Heir Day at the Fed
No, Kevin Warsh isn’t qualified
paulkrugman.substack.com

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 9d
Jo, I think the one thing we don't need to worry about is that Warsh can somehow jawbone the FOMC into reversing the ample reserves policy. Not only will the rest of the committee not go along but the staff will give him cat-on-mat briefings about it and he will almost certainly drop it.

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 20d
Skip the word trade in the headline and you're closer to the truth.

www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
European leaders hope to avoid Greenland dispute escalating into trade war
Macron likely to propose first ever use of bloc’s ‘bazooka’ emergency power to increase its negotiating leverage
www.irishtimes.com

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Dec 2
Seeing a journalist lose their mind on X, I remember when they misunderstood something to do with solvency/liquidity of banks a few years ago. Attempts to explain were dismissed as "mansplaining". Someone even recommeded my lecture notes! Certainty you're never wrong + social media leads to madness.

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Nov 30
Judge says they do not tend to quash things on the basis of “mere technicalities” as he quashes a much needed 221 bed student accommodation building over a "defective newspaper notice" and not erecting a changed site notice because these impacted the right of this one guy to object to it.
Planning approval overturned for 221-bed student accommodation in north Dublin
Courts do not quash things on ‘mere technicalities’, says judge following decision on Santry development
www.irishtimes.com

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Nov 25
Well, the good news for you is that you get to live in a country that works the way you want it to. But perhaps you can understand why people who want to see important and widely-beneficial infrastructure projects get done are frustrated with that system.

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Nov 25
It's 20 people versus the biggest infrastructure project in the country. Yes, I'm comfortable with that.

Other parts of the world manage to get things built while maintaning democracy. There are clearly many better and faster ways to build infrastructure without endless JRs.

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Nov 25
Or perhaps a legal system so complex that all those officials, consultants and planners can't manage to meet every single box ticking requirement.

Either way, claims that "this is democracy" are undermined by it being clear the vast majority of people just want to get on with projects like this.

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Nov 25
Bye bye!

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Nov 25
Can't rely on hope any more. Those grown-ups have a long track record of taking forever to reach decisions and rescinding major projects completely, putting them back to square one.

The government should pass legislation saying the Metro project as passed through planning is legal & not reviewable.

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Nov 25
Whatever the benefits of these reviews, it's not about democracy. There is a huge democratic mandate for this project.

Every system has tradeoffs. If there's a technical error in the planning process, so be it. It's been debated enough.

Time to actually get things done.

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Nov 25
Supporters of Ireland's planning system say it is wonderfully democratic. But here is a major project supported by repeated democratically-elected governments and put through a rigorous planning process (including plenty of public input) being stopped by 20 people. That's not democracy. It's chaos.
Dublin’s €10 billion MetroLink to face legal challenge from group of 20 Ranelagh residents
Judicial review could delay planned 18.8km line running from Swords to Dublin Airport and through city centre
www.irishtimes.com

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Oct 4
5 radical things to do about housing, none of which would get a single house built. Comical.

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
Lorcan Sirr: The five things Ireland must do to help fix housing
Introduce a residency requirement, change the legal definition of ‘rent’ and start counting bed spaces
www.irishtimes.com

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Oct 3
Now it's being framed as "saving jobs". The country is at full employment. Letting restaurants earn bigger profits won't create a single new job - if they more hire people, they will just take them from elsewhere. And the measure is hugely expensive. An awful policy. And I suspect Paschal knows it.

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Oct 3
Ireland's VAT cut for hospitality business is a great example of how politics and lobbying triumphs over economics. Never something anyone considered before Covid, but once they saw it could be done, the restaurant sector fought like hell to get it brought back.

www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
Paschal Donohoe confirms no personal tax changes to be made in budget
Minister for Finance says focus will be on tax measures that keep jobs in the country and enhance Ireland’s competitiveness
www.irishtimes.com

Reposted by Karl Whelan

bellmanequation.bsky.social
Noah Williams @bellmanequation.bsky.social · Sep 25
Routine for every class now:
- sign out previous person who used the system
- sign in to AV system computer
- verify sign-in with authenticator on phone
- wait for phone face ID to recognize
- wait for AV system computer to load
- kill Microsoft Teams auto-launch
- sign in to course system web page

karlwhelan.bsky.social
Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Sep 17
"The appointment is expected to be well received internally at the IMF"

Funny.
jsphctrl.ft.com Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · Sep 17
Being a co-founder of a global macro fund with no less a personage than Stephen Miran gets you in the door to be deputy managing director of the IMF these days I see. www.ft.com/content/1209...
Scott Bessent’s chief of staff set to move to IMF
Dan Katz expected to become second to fund chief Kristalina Georgieva
www.ft.com

Reposted by Karl Whelan

jsphctrl.ft.com
Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · Sep 17
Being a co-founder of a global macro fund with no less a personage than Stephen Miran gets you in the door to be deputy managing director of the IMF these days I see. www.ft.com/content/1209...
Scott Bessent’s chief of staff set to move to IMF
Dan Katz expected to become second to fund chief Kristalina Georgieva
www.ft.com