Karl Whelan
@karlwhelan.bsky.social
Professor of Economics, University College Dublin. www.karlwhelan.com has research, teaching materials, stuff on the ECB and even a few old blog posts. Remember them? Currently doing research on betting and prediction markets and some macro things.
Pinned
Karl Whelan
@karlwhelan.bsky.social
· Nov 20
Karl Whelan | Economist, University College Dublin
karlwhelan.com
You can find out more about me at karlwhelan.com
My research is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
Teaching materials on macroeconomics and money and banking at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
My work on ECB monetary policy for the European Parliament is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
My research is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
Teaching materials on macroeconomics and money and banking at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
My work on ECB monetary policy for the European Parliament is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...
5 radical things to do about housing, none of which would get a single house built. Comical.
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
Lorcan Sirr: The five things Ireland must do to help fix housing
Introduce a residency requirement, change the legal definition of ‘rent’ and start counting bed spaces
www.irishtimes.com
October 4, 2025 at 11:17 AM
5 radical things to do about housing, none of which would get a single house built. Comical.
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
Ireland's VAT cut for hospitality business is a great example of how politics and lobbying triumphs over economics. Never something anyone considered before Covid, but once they saw it could be done, the restaurant sector fought like hell to get it brought back.
www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
Paschal Donohoe confirms no personal tax changes to be made in budget
Minister for Finance says focus will be on tax measures that keep jobs in the country and enhance Ireland’s competitiveness
www.irishtimes.com
October 3, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Ireland's VAT cut for hospitality business is a great example of how politics and lobbying triumphs over economics. Never something anyone considered before Covid, but once they saw it could be done, the restaurant sector fought like hell to get it brought back.
www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Karl Whelan
Routine for every class now:
- sign out previous person who used the system
- sign in to AV system computer
- verify sign-in with authenticator on phone
- wait for phone face ID to recognize
- wait for AV system computer to load
- kill Microsoft Teams auto-launch
- sign in to course system web page
- sign out previous person who used the system
- sign in to AV system computer
- verify sign-in with authenticator on phone
- wait for phone face ID to recognize
- wait for AV system computer to load
- kill Microsoft Teams auto-launch
- sign in to course system web page
September 25, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Routine for every class now:
- sign out previous person who used the system
- sign in to AV system computer
- verify sign-in with authenticator on phone
- wait for phone face ID to recognize
- wait for AV system computer to load
- kill Microsoft Teams auto-launch
- sign in to course system web page
- sign out previous person who used the system
- sign in to AV system computer
- verify sign-in with authenticator on phone
- wait for phone face ID to recognize
- wait for AV system computer to load
- kill Microsoft Teams auto-launch
- sign in to course system web page
"The appointment is expected to be well received internally at the IMF"
Funny.
Funny.
Being a co-founder of a global macro fund with no less a personage than Stephen Miran gets you in the door to be deputy managing director of the IMF these days I see. www.ft.com/content/1209...
Scott Bessent’s chief of staff set to move to IMF
Dan Katz expected to become second to fund chief Kristalina Georgieva
www.ft.com
September 17, 2025 at 5:15 PM
"The appointment is expected to be well received internally at the IMF"
Funny.
Funny.
The real policy issue here is left to the final sentence. There is no monetary policy rationale to pay interest on all reserves to banks. Tiering works perfectly well. Whatever the rationale for their current approach is, it's not about the need to set short-term market rates appropriately.
it's Monday, another day when Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, enjoys fiscal powers nobody gave him, and uses them against the government
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Bank of England urged to slow bond-selling plan to help cut record UK borrowing costs
Ex-MPC members say ‘quantitative tightening’ should be scaled back or halted entirely, saving the Treasury up to £10bn a year
www.theguardian.com
September 15, 2025 at 10:45 AM
The real policy issue here is left to the final sentence. There is no monetary policy rationale to pay interest on all reserves to banks. Tiering works perfectly well. Whatever the rationale for their current approach is, it's not about the need to set short-term market rates appropriately.
So guys selling donuts & hotdogs outside a shopping centre is "prohibiting the making of a space dedicated to pedestrians and the general public” and stops it acting "as a distinct focal point" Planning-person brain on steroids. No wonder nothing ever gets done
www.irishtimes.com/business/202...
www.irishtimes.com/business/202...
Dundrum Town Centre owners appeal council refusal for outdoor food concessions
Local residents cited concerns around fire safety as well as ‘serious health, hygiene, and safety risks'
www.irishtimes.com
August 18, 2025 at 8:49 PM
So guys selling donuts & hotdogs outside a shopping centre is "prohibiting the making of a space dedicated to pedestrians and the general public” and stops it acting "as a distinct focal point" Planning-person brain on steroids. No wonder nothing ever gets done
www.irishtimes.com/business/202...
www.irishtimes.com/business/202...
Reposted by Karl Whelan
1/Kevin Hassett had long ago discredited himself as a scholar by parroting claims about the economy he knew to be false. Even so, parroting the lie about rigged statistics, is a new low. The academy should ostracize him the same way a fabricator of research should be ostracized.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett defends President Trump’s decision to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as well as the president’s claim that weaker-than-expected jobs reports were “rigged,” but failed to produce any evidence to support Trump’s claim.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett defends Trump's firing of labor statistics head
In an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press," Hassett called for a "fresh set of eyes" at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
nbcnews.to
August 3, 2025 at 7:55 PM
1/Kevin Hassett had long ago discredited himself as a scholar by parroting claims about the economy he knew to be false. Even so, parroting the lie about rigged statistics, is a new low. The academy should ostracize him the same way a fabricator of research should be ostracized.
Jenkins’s relentless commitment to being the worst Guardian columnist of all time gets taken to new levels. Airs of “Sure Adolf might be a bit of a rum bloke but look at the lovely architecture…”
In which Simon Jenkins praises that rare aesthetic sensitivity of Donald Trump!
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
He may talk rubbish but Trump has an eye for beauty, and that is a breath of fresh air | Simon Jenkins
The US president promotes classical architecture and loathes ‘ugly’ wind turbines. Keir Starmer would dismiss him as a nimby, but on this Trump has a point, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins
www.theguardian.com
August 2, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Jenkins’s relentless commitment to being the worst Guardian columnist of all time gets taken to new levels. Airs of “Sure Adolf might be a bit of a rum bloke but look at the lovely architecture…”
Ah, look, my university has decided to get a scary AI robot to tell me that doing research, admin and teaching preparation from home (which I've done forever) is apparently a "hybrid" arrangement that I need to fill out a form to get approval for.
www.ucd.ie/hr/a-z/hybri...
www.ucd.ie/hr/a-z/hybri...
Faculty - UCD Human Resources
UCD Hybrid Working Policy, Overview of hybrid working for faculty. A summary of the Policy, definitions and key principles, a process outline and FAQ.
www.ucd.ie
August 1, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Ah, look, my university has decided to get a scary AI robot to tell me that doing research, admin and teaching preparation from home (which I've done forever) is apparently a "hybrid" arrangement that I need to fill out a form to get approval for.
www.ucd.ie/hr/a-z/hybri...
www.ucd.ie/hr/a-z/hybri...
Lately, I've been working on betting and prediction markets. Here's a working paper on this topic written with two UCD colleagues -- it is (AFAIK) the only systematic analysis of the prices on the Kalshi prediction market. We're still in pre-submission mode so comments\critiques welcome.
www.ucd.ie
July 19, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Lately, I've been working on betting and prediction markets. Here's a working paper on this topic written with two UCD colleagues -- it is (AFAIK) the only systematic analysis of the prices on the Kalshi prediction market. We're still in pre-submission mode so comments\critiques welcome.
3 points on this.
1. Eurosystem made profits due to bond buying for years because there was generally a positive spread between the bond yields and the rate it paid on reserves (which was negative for years). You can't look at losses without factoring in profits.
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
1. Eurosystem made profits due to bond buying for years because there was generally a positive spread between the bond yields and the rate it paid on reserves (which was negative for years). You can't look at losses without factoring in profits.
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
www.reuters.com
June 24, 2025 at 7:50 AM
3 points on this.
1. Eurosystem made profits due to bond buying for years because there was generally a positive spread between the bond yields and the rate it paid on reserves (which was negative for years). You can't look at losses without factoring in profits.
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
1. Eurosystem made profits due to bond buying for years because there was generally a positive spread between the bond yields and the rate it paid on reserves (which was negative for years). You can't look at losses without factoring in profits.
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
I continue to be glad I cancelled my @financialtimes.com
subscription over their Trump\Musk coverage.
Witness this heap of rubbish from Edward Luce.
To summarise ... Nazis are bad so it's best if they win so they don't get violent when they don't.
Really?
subscription over their Trump\Musk coverage.
Witness this heap of rubbish from Edward Luce.
To summarise ... Nazis are bad so it's best if they win so they don't get violent when they don't.
Really?
June 1, 2025 at 2:04 PM
I continue to be glad I cancelled my @financialtimes.com
subscription over their Trump\Musk coverage.
Witness this heap of rubbish from Edward Luce.
To summarise ... Nazis are bad so it's best if they win so they don't get violent when they don't.
Really?
subscription over their Trump\Musk coverage.
Witness this heap of rubbish from Edward Luce.
To summarise ... Nazis are bad so it's best if they win so they don't get violent when they don't.
Really?
Incredible that it took a backbench rebellion to make this happen. Good for those who forced it but is this how they plan to govern for the next 4 years? Tory-in-disguise policies until rebellions get rid of them. Aren't they just better off to get rid of Starmer? It's not like he's popular.
Keir Starmer backs end of two child benefit cap and tells Treasury to find the money - my story for @theobserveruk.bsky.social observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
Starmer to scrap two-child benefit cap as Treasury told to find money | The Observer
Policy change following concern among cabinet MPs will lift hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty
observer.co.uk
May 24, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Incredible that it took a backbench rebellion to make this happen. Good for those who forced it but is this how they plan to govern for the next 4 years? Tory-in-disguise policies until rebellions get rid of them. Aren't they just better off to get rid of Starmer? It's not like he's popular.
Sorry @jenoconnell.bsky.social but how is not wanting to talk to people you don’t want to talk to a violation of free speech? Are people not free to choose who they speak to? Whose freedom are you defending?
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
Jennifer O’Connell: Ruth Coppinger seems to think free speech applies only to views she likes
Do you believe in free speech? Do you believe in it for views and people you loathe? Unless you answer ‘yes’ to both questions, you don’t believe in it
www.irishtimes.com
May 18, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Sorry @jenoconnell.bsky.social but how is not wanting to talk to people you don’t want to talk to a violation of free speech? Are people not free to choose who they speak to? Whose freedom are you defending?
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
Reposted by Karl Whelan
New post: Starmer’s Disgraceful and Damaging Remarks
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/star...
As with austerity in the 2010s, if none of the main parties can be honest about immigration then the public debate will be equally dishonest.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/star...
As with austerity in the 2010s, if none of the main parties can be honest about immigration then the public debate will be equally dishonest.
Starmer’s Disgraceful and Damaging Remarks
I’m on holiday, and wasn’t going to write a blog post this week. But after a splendid day out on the Northumbrian coast I made the mistake...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
May 13, 2025 at 7:52 AM
New post: Starmer’s Disgraceful and Damaging Remarks
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/star...
As with austerity in the 2010s, if none of the main parties can be honest about immigration then the public debate will be equally dishonest.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/star...
As with austerity in the 2010s, if none of the main parties can be honest about immigration then the public debate will be equally dishonest.
This stuff is hilarious.
Ah yes bring the best and brightest to Irish universities! Meanwhile the same government makes it impossible to recruit people on proper permanent contracts due to an Employment Control Framework introduced 15 years ago.
Meanwhile, funding per student is pitifully low.
Ah yes bring the best and brightest to Irish universities! Meanwhile the same government makes it impossible to recruit people on proper permanent contracts due to an Employment Control Framework introduced 15 years ago.
Meanwhile, funding per student is pitifully low.
www.theguardian.com
May 13, 2025 at 2:17 PM
This stuff is hilarious.
Ah yes bring the best and brightest to Irish universities! Meanwhile the same government makes it impossible to recruit people on proper permanent contracts due to an Employment Control Framework introduced 15 years ago.
Meanwhile, funding per student is pitifully low.
Ah yes bring the best and brightest to Irish universities! Meanwhile the same government makes it impossible to recruit people on proper permanent contracts due to an Employment Control Framework introduced 15 years ago.
Meanwhile, funding per student is pitifully low.
At almost 30 years remove from living in Boston and not caring a jot about the NBA, my reaction to the news about the Celtics blowing two 20 point leads in a row in the playoffs to the Knicks was still a visceral oh my Jesus No.
May 8, 2025 at 11:57 PM
At almost 30 years remove from living in Boston and not caring a jot about the NBA, my reaction to the news about the Celtics blowing two 20 point leads in a row in the playoffs to the Knicks was still a visceral oh my Jesus No.
Reposted by Karl Whelan
REPORTER: But we're seeing as a result that ports here in the US, the traffic has really slowed and now thousands of dockworkers are truck drivers are worried about their jobs
TRUMP: That means we lose less money ... when you say it slowed down, that's a good thing, not a bad thing
TRUMP: That means we lose less money ... when you say it slowed down, that's a good thing, not a bad thing
May 8, 2025 at 3:31 PM
REPORTER: But we're seeing as a result that ports here in the US, the traffic has really slowed and now thousands of dockworkers are truck drivers are worried about their jobs
TRUMP: That means we lose less money ... when you say it slowed down, that's a good thing, not a bad thing
TRUMP: That means we lose less money ... when you say it slowed down, that's a good thing, not a bad thing
Reposted by Karl Whelan
Is this bad? I'm no international shipping expert, but this sounds bad.
May 4, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Is this bad? I'm no international shipping expert, but this sounds bad.
Reposted by Karl Whelan
"It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet": Container ships from China fell by a third in April. By late May or early June, Americans may find less on the shelves. @anaswanson.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/b...
A Tidal Wave of Change Is Headed for the U.S. Economy
American consumers are not yet seeing much evidence of the drastic changes President Trump has made on trade. But they are on their way.
www.nytimes.com
May 4, 2025 at 4:33 PM
"It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet": Container ships from China fell by a third in April. By late May or early June, Americans may find less on the shelves. @anaswanson.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/b...
Reposted by Karl Whelan
Outlook is undeniably bleak. bsky.app/profile/sean...
Another Financial Times fun factoid from hell: Container bookings from China to the United States are nosediving #EconSky
April 29, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Outlook is undeniably bleak. bsky.app/profile/sean...
Reposted by Karl Whelan
BESSENT SAYS NOT WORRIED ABOUT EMPTY SHELVES BESSENT SAYS WE'LL SEE ELASTICITIES, WE'LL SEE REPLACEMENTS
April 28, 2025 at 12:23 PM
BESSENT SAYS NOT WORRIED ABOUT EMPTY SHELVES BESSENT SAYS WE'LL SEE ELASTICITIES, WE'LL SEE REPLACEMENTS
This has a very pre-Covid feel about it. I remember telling my family the world was about to utterly change in late February 2020 and they thought I was mad. The consequences of almost no Chinese imports on US shelves or available as inputs to firms are likely to be enormous. And it's coming soon.
The trade war's wave of retail shortages will hit U.S. consumers in stages. Here's when
Major retailers are warning about empty shelves as a result of President Trump's tariffs on China and wider trade war. How concerned should consumers be?
www.cnbc.com
April 28, 2025 at 8:18 PM
This has a very pre-Covid feel about it. I remember telling my family the world was about to utterly change in late February 2020 and they thought I was mad. The consequences of almost no Chinese imports on US shelves or available as inputs to firms are likely to be enormous. And it's coming soon.