Joseph Cotterill
@jsphctrl.ft.com
Emerging Markets correspondent at the Financial Times.
The photographer and reporter - so polite to the old! - are gone less than a minute before I throw off wig, purple pullover and cravat through six cavernous rooms to a secret, seventh vestibule. “Yes, comrade,” I tell the figure on a wall-sized screen. “We continue to accelerate the contradictions.”
November 29, 2025 at 10:17 AM
The photographer and reporter - so polite to the old! - are gone less than a minute before I throw off wig, purple pullover and cravat through six cavernous rooms to a secret, seventh vestibule. “Yes, comrade,” I tell the figure on a wall-sized screen. “We continue to accelerate the contradictions.”
‘“Ukrainians have fought heroically for their independence,” said Witkoff, who has tried to inspire Ukrainian officials with the idea of soldiers disarming to earn Silicon Valley-scale salaries operating American built AI data centers’ www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Make Money Not War: Trump’s Real Plan for Peace in Ukraine
The Kremlin pitched the White House on peace through business. To Europe’s dismay, the president and his envoy are on board.
www.wsj.com
November 29, 2025 at 8:53 AM
‘“Ukrainians have fought heroically for their independence,” said Witkoff, who has tried to inspire Ukrainian officials with the idea of soldiers disarming to earn Silicon Valley-scale salaries operating American built AI data centers’ www.wsj.com/world/russia...
This piece was written by Monica Mark, our Southern Africa bureau chief for two years now who is always based in Johannesburg. Just as I was based there in that position for seven years. Tourism journalism, not likely.
See the FT is continuing its "tourism journalism", commmenting on stuff they have stumbled on whilst at the G20.
Which of course they would never have dreamed of writing about otherwise.
Which of course they would never have dreamed of writing about otherwise.
November 28, 2025 at 7:34 PM
This piece was written by Monica Mark, our Southern Africa bureau chief for two years now who is always based in Johannesburg. Just as I was based there in that position for seven years. Tourism journalism, not likely.
Zuma-Sambudla “is nothing but a pampered princess who has been a wrecking ball in the MK since its formation... treating the party as the family fiefdom in which she can do as she pleases because she has the ears of her father.” www.ft.com/content/70e6...
The ‘pampered princess’ accused of trafficking South Africans to Russia
Allegations against Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, heir apparent to her father Jacob Zuma’s political dynasty, have shocked the nation
www.ft.com
November 28, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Zuma-Sambudla “is nothing but a pampered princess who has been a wrecking ball in the MK since its formation... treating the party as the family fiefdom in which she can do as she pleases because she has the ears of her father.” www.ft.com/content/70e6...
“Brutal competition among models as the cost to compete goes down leading to an outcome like solar in the 2010s: the consumer wins, the producers do not.” (By @alexbhturnbull.bsky.social) syncretica.substack.com/p/ai-bubble-...
AI Bubble or Not
Getting specific about what bubble
syncretica.substack.com
November 28, 2025 at 2:01 PM
“Brutal competition among models as the cost to compete goes down leading to an outcome like solar in the 2010s: the consumer wins, the producers do not.” (By @alexbhturnbull.bsky.social) syncretica.substack.com/p/ai-bubble-...
The (in)famous 2061 gilt trades at a fat 26p on the pound in comparison (and still at a decent premium in spread terms to the 2060...)
Non-defaulted govt bond trades at 2.65 cents on the euro.
on.ft.com/3M5Yux0
on.ft.com/3M5Yux0
Almost total bondholder wipeout
Austrian centurions: from hero to (almost) zero
on.ft.com
November 28, 2025 at 12:00 PM
The (in)famous 2061 gilt trades at a fat 26p on the pound in comparison (and still at a decent premium in spread terms to the 2060...)
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
It's pretty astounding how wide the error bars around load growth over the next 5 years look.
heatmap.news/am/georgia-d...
heatmap.news/am/georgia-d...
November 28, 2025 at 11:32 AM
It's pretty astounding how wide the error bars around load growth over the next 5 years look.
heatmap.news/am/georgia-d...
heatmap.news/am/georgia-d...
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
This is ridiculous. All G20 members are always invited.The point of the organization is to bring together all major countries regardless of disagreements. Not attending the G20 was dumb. Trying to block a member when we host is a diplomatic train wreck. Hosting G20 is an opportunity. Were blowing it
Another shameful Trump act. South Africa has serious problems but it remains exemplary both in its peaceful democratic transition from a racist regime and in its more recent bounce back from corrupt populism. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...
Trump Says South Africa Is Not Invited to G20 Summit in U.S. in 2026
www.nytimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 3:52 PM
This is ridiculous. All G20 members are always invited.The point of the organization is to bring together all major countries regardless of disagreements. Not attending the G20 was dumb. Trying to block a member when we host is a diplomatic train wreck. Hosting G20 is an opportunity. Were blowing it
Early OBR release was bad in this instance because it's a terrible way to treat price sensitive material, and if it happened at a listed company it would get the investor relations team liquidated.
Yet if it became the rule (with proper process), it might be better and more productive than now.
Yet if it became the rule (with proper process), it might be better and more productive than now.
November 27, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Early OBR release was bad in this instance because it's a terrible way to treat price sensitive material, and if it happened at a listed company it would get the investor relations team liquidated.
Yet if it became the rule (with proper process), it might be better and more productive than now.
Yet if it became the rule (with proper process), it might be better and more productive than now.
IMF has an outline of a new $8bn bailout for Ukraine, subject to (European) financing assurances. “Prompt action by donors is indispensable to assist Ukraine in managing its large fiscal and external financing needs, and to avoid liquidity strains.” www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
IMF and Ukrainian authorities reach Staff-Level Agreement on a new US$8.2 billion 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mr. Gavin Gray held discussions with the Ukrainian authorities during November 17-21 in response to their request for a new Extended Fund Facility (EFF...
www.imf.org
November 26, 2025 at 7:53 PM
IMF has an outline of a new $8bn bailout for Ukraine, subject to (European) financing assurances. “Prompt action by donors is indispensable to assist Ukraine in managing its large fiscal and external financing needs, and to avoid liquidity strains.” www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
“So what is the product, in the future, that China would like to buy from the rest of the world?”
(FX?)
www.ft.com/content/f294...
(FX?)
www.ft.com/content/f294...
China is making trade impossible
Europe has nothing to offer and difficult decisions to make
www.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:29 PM
“So what is the product, in the future, that China would like to buy from the rest of the world?”
(FX?)
www.ft.com/content/f294...
(FX?)
www.ft.com/content/f294...
The stamp duty holiday on new share listings means the UK Budget is doing its own little bit for the cause of getting frontier market funds to buy a piece of Uzbekistan's state assets. These will IPO in London likely next year. www.gov.uk/government/p...
Stamp Duty Reserve Tax — UK Listing Relief
www.gov.uk
November 26, 2025 at 3:15 PM
The stamp duty holiday on new share listings means the UK Budget is doing its own little bit for the cause of getting frontier market funds to buy a piece of Uzbekistan's state assets. These will IPO in London likely next year. www.gov.uk/government/p...
SA’s National Treasury also then releases all budget documentation as soon as the finance minister starts speaking, and then after that the minister, deputy minister, and civil servants are usually available to press and investors. Quite different to the UK’s leaky accountability sink approach.
South Africa keeps its Budget very under wraps and the finance minister refuses to discuss anything substantive about it ahead of time.
I've only been here for one finance minister so far, but it does feel like a more "serious" process, which is of course itself a political choice.
I've only been here for one finance minister so far, but it does feel like a more "serious" process, which is of course itself a political choice.
I don't think we should know even one thing about the Budget until the chancellor gets to the despatch box on the day, surprise us
November 26, 2025 at 12:12 PM
SA’s National Treasury also then releases all budget documentation as soon as the finance minister starts speaking, and then after that the minister, deputy minister, and civil servants are usually available to press and investors. Quite different to the UK’s leaky accountability sink approach.
His Majesty’s Government stays defeated by the type of people who can change the months in PDF hyperlinks to find out stuff
November 26, 2025 at 12:01 PM
His Majesty’s Government stays defeated by the type of people who can change the months in PDF hyperlinks to find out stuff
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
One interesting thing that has yet to trickle through data center politics yet: these things could shoulder HUGE property taxes. If the bit-watt spread remains really wide, developers are going to care a LOT more about getting the project done than the tax expense (similar to eg electricity supply).
new: people across Wisconsin are increasingly standing up to AI data centers. at the old Foxconn site, citizens are thankful for Microsoft, but they said no to a new Microsoft data center 20 miles away. worries range from a loss of open land to meager tax payments www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/m...
Why rural Wisconsin is blocking the AI data center boom: 'Horses are skittish'
Tech giants are increasingly facing community backlash as they select places to build mammoth AI data centers.
www.cnbc.com
November 26, 2025 at 10:56 AM
One interesting thing that has yet to trickle through data center politics yet: these things could shoulder HUGE property taxes. If the bit-watt spread remains really wide, developers are going to care a LOT more about getting the project done than the tax expense (similar to eg electricity supply).
Nigeria's stock market is moving from T+3 to T+2, which would make it one of very few African countries to offer this. Waemu's shared bourse is apparently next. www.thisdaylive.com/2025/11/24/e...
Capital Market Stakeholders Elated as T+2 Settlement Timeline Commences – THISDAYLIVE
www.thisdaylive.com
November 26, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Nigeria's stock market is moving from T+3 to T+2, which would make it one of very few African countries to offer this. Waemu's shared bourse is apparently next. www.thisdaylive.com/2025/11/24/e...
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
Ever wonder what Liz Truss is up to these days? Well:
- she’s fronting a plan by Robert Tchenguiz to turn the ex MI5 HQ into a co-working space for the ultra-rich
- Truss is tasked with finding 700 founding members, each to lend half a mil
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
- she’s fronting a plan by Robert Tchenguiz to turn the ex MI5 HQ into a co-working space for the ultra-rich
- Truss is tasked with finding 700 founding members, each to lend half a mil
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Truss Is Back With an Investment Opportunity for the Super-Rich
This week, a selection of billionaires, diplomats and royalty will see a black lacquered box land on their desks. When opened, a tablet embedded in the lid plays a video from none other than Liz Truss...
www.bloomberg.com
November 26, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Ever wonder what Liz Truss is up to these days? Well:
- she’s fronting a plan by Robert Tchenguiz to turn the ex MI5 HQ into a co-working space for the ultra-rich
- Truss is tasked with finding 700 founding members, each to lend half a mil
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
- she’s fronting a plan by Robert Tchenguiz to turn the ex MI5 HQ into a co-working space for the ultra-rich
- Truss is tasked with finding 700 founding members, each to lend half a mil
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Zhu Ying headed up China's approach to sovereign debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework, such as Zambia. So if he has been detained... that's a big deal.
Caixin: "Exim Bank is under growing financial strain. Its 2024 annual report showed assets of 6.4 trillion yuan, but revenue fell 55.8% year-on-year to 10.3 billion yuan, and net profit plunged 66.9% to 2.9 billion yuan," (i.e an ROA of 0.05%).
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-25/t...
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-25/t...
Top Sovereign Lending Official at Exim Bank Under Investigation
Zhu Ying, a key figure in African debt restructuring, is at the center of a corruption investigation
www.caixinglobal.com
November 25, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Zhu Ying headed up China's approach to sovereign debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework, such as Zambia. So if he has been detained... that's a big deal.
Ghost of Yōtei photo mode: still good
November 24, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Ghost of Yōtei photo mode: still good
People in developed economies hugely underestimate young, highly online, highly globalised, but also economically precarious people in developing economies. And that’s my main thought on the X locations thing but also on many other services exports to come from EMs in the years ahead.
November 24, 2025 at 6:06 PM
People in developed economies hugely underestimate young, highly online, highly globalised, but also economically precarious people in developing economies. And that’s my main thought on the X locations thing but also on many other services exports to come from EMs in the years ahead.
Ukraine’s dollar debts - geared to a post-war recovery - are trading like this peace plan will move forward. Ukraine’s 2029 bonds are now 72 cents on the dollar, or highest since the last big Trump peace trade in February; Ukraine’s GDP warrants are at a new post-invasion high of 91 cents.
November 24, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Ukraine’s dollar debts - geared to a post-war recovery - are trading like this peace plan will move forward. Ukraine’s 2029 bonds are now 72 cents on the dollar, or highest since the last big Trump peace trade in February; Ukraine’s GDP warrants are at a new post-invasion high of 91 cents.
Newspaper that said it wasn’t worth half a billion pounds is magically now worth half a billion pounds www.ft.com/content/cd8e...
Daily Mail owner strikes £500mn deal for Telegraph
Tie-up would create one of the most powerful right-leaning media groups in Britain
www.ft.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Newspaper that said it wasn’t worth half a billion pounds is magically now worth half a billion pounds www.ft.com/content/cd8e...
In the grim darkness of the media future, only the correspondents with emerging markets experience will have a way to get in touch with the guy who knows the guy who knows the guy who knows the president’s Yahoo email address.
One of the things that has made journalism much harder in the past decade is that more and more organisations list absolutely no contact details for anyone on their websites. I assume this is to block spam, but like, how are we meant to reach people? Bring back paper phonebacks?
November 21, 2025 at 7:16 PM
In the grim darkness of the media future, only the correspondents with emerging markets experience will have a way to get in touch with the guy who knows the guy who knows the guy who knows the president’s Yahoo email address.
I'm inevitably coming at this from a sovereign finance angle, but it's interesting that the new US-Russia plan on Ukraine would encumber $100bn in frozen Russian assets in reconstruction (with US getting half the profit) just as the EU was close to attaching them for the reparation loan.
November 21, 2025 at 2:29 PM
I'm inevitably coming at this from a sovereign finance angle, but it's interesting that the new US-Russia plan on Ukraine would encumber $100bn in frozen Russian assets in reconstruction (with US getting half the profit) just as the EU was close to attaching them for the reparation loan.
Slightly boring addition to the explanations for the sell-off, but one offered by EM managers is - it's close to year-end, many assets such as in EM had a (crazily?) unexpectedly good year, and before the holidays/lower liquidity no one wants to take much more risk on that until the new year.
November 21, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Slightly boring addition to the explanations for the sell-off, but one offered by EM managers is - it's close to year-end, many assets such as in EM had a (crazily?) unexpectedly good year, and before the holidays/lower liquidity no one wants to take much more risk on that until the new year.