Joseph Cotterill
@jsphctrl.ft.com
Emerging Markets correspondent at the Financial Times.
Qatar has long been a neutral or mediatory space for things Venezuelan, but more importantly it would be even tougher to enforce there as a foreign judgment creditor. www.semafor.com/article/01/1...
Exclusive: US gets first $500 million Venezuelan oil deal, holding some proceeds in Qatar
The details shared with Semafor mark an initial milestone in the administration’s plan following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro.
www.semafor.com
January 15, 2026 at 11:59 AM
Qatar has long been a neutral or mediatory space for things Venezuelan, but more importantly it would be even tougher to enforce there as a foreign judgment creditor. www.semafor.com/article/01/1...
“I’m also very nervous about whether AI demand is real. I have to invest up to US$56bn this year, and if we didn’t do it carefully, it would be a disaster for TSMC.” (The CEO of the dominant stock in the EM benchmark is confident that US demand is there btw) www.ft.com/content/a3b4...
TSMC to boost capital spending as demand for AI chips surges
Taiwanese chipmaker beats own guidance on revenue and gross profit margin
www.ft.com
January 15, 2026 at 11:46 AM
“I’m also very nervous about whether AI demand is real. I have to invest up to US$56bn this year, and if we didn’t do it carefully, it would be a disaster for TSMC.” (The CEO of the dominant stock in the EM benchmark is confident that US demand is there btw) www.ft.com/content/a3b4...
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
Iran: "Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an economist at Virginia Tech, estimated Iran’s total capital flight last year at between $10 billion and $20 billion, creating what he called “a bad situation that does not seem tenable.” www.wsj.com/world/middle...
The Obscure Bank Collapse That Sent Iran Into a Tailspin
Bad loans to regime cronies brought down Ayandeh Bank, accelerating a long-running financial crisis.
www.wsj.com
January 14, 2026 at 12:07 PM
Iran: "Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an economist at Virginia Tech, estimated Iran’s total capital flight last year at between $10 billion and $20 billion, creating what he called “a bad situation that does not seem tenable.” www.wsj.com/world/middle...
“A degree of calm has since set in across the streets of Tehran, at least by day… However, state hospitals are operating at full capacity, while police and intelligence services have warned families to keep young people off the streets.” www.ft.com/content/fdc3...
Dispatch from Tehran: the week Iranians revolted against the regime
Cut off from the outside world, Iran has been convulsed by some of the worst violence since the 1979 Islamic revolution
www.ft.com
January 13, 2026 at 7:37 PM
“A degree of calm has since set in across the streets of Tehran, at least by day… However, state hospitals are operating at full capacity, while police and intelligence services have warned families to keep young people off the streets.” www.ft.com/content/fdc3...
Korean prosecutors have demanded the death penalty for ex-President Yoon over his insurrection charges. First call for a former Korean leader to face a death sentence since Chun Doo-hwan in 1996 (he was sentenced, later commuted to life imprisonment, then pardoned). en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN2026...
January 13, 2026 at 1:20 PM
Korean prosecutors have demanded the death penalty for ex-President Yoon over his insurrection charges. First call for a former Korean leader to face a death sentence since Chun Doo-hwan in 1996 (he was sentenced, later commuted to life imprisonment, then pardoned). en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN2026...
Interesting that Games Workshop is similar to DC in comics in setting firm guidance against generative AI. (Both have highly creator-driven readers and collectors I think)
The Games Workshop results are interesting (and very honest) on AI and tariffs.
AI: not that exciting. Tariffs: much more manageable than expected.
images.ctfassets.net/ost7hseic9hc...
AI: not that exciting. Tariffs: much more manageable than expected.
images.ctfassets.net/ost7hseic9hc...
January 13, 2026 at 12:14 PM
Interesting that Games Workshop is similar to DC in comics in setting firm guidance against generative AI. (Both have highly creator-driven readers and collectors I think)
Governors of two emerging-market central banks, the Banco Central do Brasil and Bank of Korea, are among the 11 central banking institutions that have expressed “full solidarity” with Jerome Powell and the Fed: www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/dat...
International central bankers on the statement by Federal Reserve Chair Powell on 11 January 2026
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the purch...
www.ecb.europa.eu
January 13, 2026 at 10:46 AM
Governors of two emerging-market central banks, the Banco Central do Brasil and Bank of Korea, are among the 11 central banking institutions that have expressed “full solidarity” with Jerome Powell and the Fed: www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/dat...
Finance minister, not a central banker, but for me the EM analogy to Trump-Powell is the saga of Jacob Zuma versus Pravin Gordhan in South Africa, 2016-17. Gordhan was charged, then charges were dropped, then he was sacked anyway. But ultimately SA's core public finance institutions survived.
January 12, 2026 at 11:40 AM
Finance minister, not a central banker, but for me the EM analogy to Trump-Powell is the saga of Jacob Zuma versus Pravin Gordhan in South Africa, 2016-17. Gordhan was charged, then charges were dropped, then he was sacked anyway. But ultimately SA's core public finance institutions survived.
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
Just saying, I spent twenty years in Emerging Markets watching countries pull this sort of thing with their Central Banks and am available for lucrative consulting gigs.
January 12, 2026 at 8:34 AM
Just saying, I spent twenty years in Emerging Markets watching countries pull this sort of thing with their Central Banks and am available for lucrative consulting gigs.
The US has confirmed that creditors won’t be able to attach revenue from Venezuelan oil that lands in US Treasury accounts. Which would have been a very bold holdout strategy anyway. In other words another sign that recovery will await a restructuring. www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
January 10, 2026 at 8:40 PM
The US has confirmed that creditors won’t be able to attach revenue from Venezuelan oil that lands in US Treasury accounts. Which would have been a very bold holdout strategy anyway. In other words another sign that recovery will await a restructuring. www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
“Central bank data shows Argentina increased its debt with “international organisations” by roughly the same amount as the figure repaid to the US Treasury in the week before the repayment in December.” www.ft.com/content/b721...
Argentina repays US financial lifeline as Milei emerges from market crisis
Buenos Aires hands back $2.5bn it drew under swap line ahead of pivotal election in October
www.ft.com
January 9, 2026 at 5:41 PM
“Central bank data shows Argentina increased its debt with “international organisations” by roughly the same amount as the figure repaid to the US Treasury in the week before the repayment in December.” www.ft.com/content/b721...
The Venezuela Creditor Committee (probably the biggest bondholder group) reminds everyone it exists and “stands ready to initiate a negotiated process, when authorised.“ www.einnews.com/pr_news/8816...
Venezuela Creditor Committee Stands Ready to Initiate Prospective Debt Restructuring
The Venezuela Creditor Committee (“VCC”) is a representative and diverse group of US and allied international investors in debt obligations of the Venezuela
www.einnews.com
January 9, 2026 at 3:56 PM
The Venezuela Creditor Committee (probably the biggest bondholder group) reminds everyone it exists and “stands ready to initiate a negotiated process, when authorised.“ www.einnews.com/pr_news/8816...
This is quite a story, and not unimportant for Cuba, which needs export earnings more than ever... halfwheel.com/american-san...
January 9, 2026 at 11:59 AM
This is quite a story, and not unimportant for Cuba, which needs export earnings more than ever... halfwheel.com/american-san...
Oil for Food II?
US Dept of Energy statement on Venezuela: "All proceeds from the sale of Venezuelan crude oil and oil products will first settle in U.S. controlled accounts at globally recognized banks to guarantee the legitimacy and integrity of the ultimate distribution of proceeds ..."
January 7, 2026 at 8:05 PM
Oil for Food II?
With the rally in Venezuela’s bonds already quite advanced, investors have been trying to buy up its more exotic debts - arbitration awards, receivables and other legal claims- to get in the creditor queue for an eventual restructuring. www.ft.com/content/2c04...
Hedge funds hunt for Venezuela’s unpaid financial claims
US capture of Nicolás Maduro lifts hopes that country will make good on some debt
www.ft.com
January 7, 2026 at 9:41 AM
With the rally in Venezuela’s bonds already quite advanced, investors have been trying to buy up its more exotic debts - arbitration awards, receivables and other legal claims- to get in the creditor queue for an eventual restructuring. www.ft.com/content/2c04...
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
South African stonks have absolutely crushed over the past year or so. Some specific contributors: Naspers (13% weight) owns 23% of Chinese digital conglomerate Tencent (ADR TCHEY). Plus Anglogold, Gold Fields, and Valterra Platinum are a bit more than a quarter of the index by weight.
January 6, 2026 at 2:51 PM
South African stonks have absolutely crushed over the past year or so. Some specific contributors: Naspers (13% weight) owns 23% of Chinese digital conglomerate Tencent (ADR TCHEY). Plus Anglogold, Gold Fields, and Valterra Platinum are a bit more than a quarter of the index by weight.
Venezuela's bondholders naturally not so keen on the Iraq 'wipe out the creditors' analogy. Keener on the 'oil production comeback' part of the Iraq analogy, oddly enough www.ft.com/content/8736...
A four-letter word that spells doom for Venezuela’s creditors
Bondholders could get Bakerised
www.ft.com
January 6, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Venezuela's bondholders naturally not so keen on the Iraq 'wipe out the creditors' analogy. Keener on the 'oil production comeback' part of the Iraq analogy, oddly enough www.ft.com/content/8736...
“The question is, will it work? I think Delcy is going to dance the tango with Team Trump and then she’s going to be stabbed in the back by Diosdado and Padrino López, and then Trump will be back in a kinetic sense.” www.ft.com/content/4b87...
The woman with Donald Trump’s nod to lead Venezuela
Washington has built its transition plans around vice-president Delcy Rodríguez, a canny operator close to the oil industry
www.ft.com
January 5, 2026 at 6:20 PM
“The question is, will it work? I think Delcy is going to dance the tango with Team Trump and then she’s going to be stabbed in the back by Diosdado and Padrino López, and then Trump will be back in a kinetic sense.” www.ft.com/content/4b87...
First problem for any Venezuelan debt restructuring and why it may be months off at best is that Delcy Rodriguez, as interim leader, remains on the US sanctions list. Which would make it difficult to invite US investors or creditors to Caracas. sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/Details.aspx...
Sanctions List Search
sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov
January 5, 2026 at 4:15 PM
First problem for any Venezuelan debt restructuring and why it may be months off at best is that Delcy Rodriguez, as interim leader, remains on the US sanctions list. Which would make it difficult to invite US investors or creditors to Caracas. sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/Details.aspx...
Shares in Gold Reserve have opened up more than 100%. Canada-listed gold miner, but maybe more importantly... a significant creditor to Venezuela.
January 5, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Shares in Gold Reserve have opened up more than 100%. Canada-listed gold miner, but maybe more importantly... a significant creditor to Venezuela.
Venezuela bonds opened up 7 to 8 points or so in early (and thin) London trading, or up a quarter on Friday prices. Waiting for the US to get in.
Venezuelan bonds are generally expected to open up a lot (from 33 or so cents) in Monday markets. The bigger question in the background will be working out the up to date size of Venezuela’s overall debt. It is shaping up to be one of the biggest sovereign debt restructurings in history anyway.
January 5, 2026 at 10:45 AM
Venezuela bonds opened up 7 to 8 points or so in early (and thin) London trading, or up a quarter on Friday prices. Waiting for the US to get in.
Venezuelan bonds are generally expected to open up a lot (from 33 or so cents) in Monday markets. The bigger question in the background will be working out the up to date size of Venezuela’s overall debt. It is shaping up to be one of the biggest sovereign debt restructurings in history anyway.
January 5, 2026 at 7:30 AM
Venezuelan bonds are generally expected to open up a lot (from 33 or so cents) in Monday markets. The bigger question in the background will be working out the up to date size of Venezuela’s overall debt. It is shaping up to be one of the biggest sovereign debt restructurings in history anyway.
Saturday afternoon in Caracas: www.ft.com/content/a0e1...
January 4, 2026 at 11:48 AM
Saturday afternoon in Caracas: www.ft.com/content/a0e1...
Trump referred to Rodriguez being leader post-Maduro and in communication with Marco Rubio so it is looking more like the below is the plan. At least for now.
With all this uncertainty about who ‘runs’ any Venezuelan transition, Reuters reports Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Moscow. Creditors have thought that she and her brother Jorge (in Caracas) might oversee a transition and have channels to the US. www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Venezuela vice president Rodriguez in Russia, four sources say
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Russia, four sources familiar with her movements said on Saturday, after President Donald Trump said President Nicolas Maduro had been by U.S. forces af...
www.reuters.com
January 3, 2026 at 6:11 PM
Trump referred to Rodriguez being leader post-Maduro and in communication with Marco Rubio so it is looking more like the below is the plan. At least for now.
With all this uncertainty about who ‘runs’ any Venezuelan transition, Reuters reports Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Moscow. Creditors have thought that she and her brother Jorge (in Caracas) might oversee a transition and have channels to the US. www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Venezuela vice president Rodriguez in Russia, four sources say
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Russia, four sources familiar with her movements said on Saturday, after President Donald Trump said President Nicolas Maduro had been by U.S. forces af...
www.reuters.com
January 3, 2026 at 5:02 PM
With all this uncertainty about who ‘runs’ any Venezuelan transition, Reuters reports Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Moscow. Creditors have thought that she and her brother Jorge (in Caracas) might oversee a transition and have channels to the US. www.reuters.com/world/americ...