Kevin Carey
@kevincareywb.bsky.social
World Bank
Macro / Climate
Opinions are mine and not WB
X: Kevin_Carey_WB
Macro / Climate
Opinions are mine and not WB
X: Kevin_Carey_WB
"Thailand's military has restricted the movement of all fuel supplies through the Chong Mek border crossing into Laos after receiving intelligence that these were being routed to Cambodian troops, said Thai defence ministry spokesperson Rear Admiral Surasant Kongsiri." www.msn.com/en-ca/news/w...
MSN
www.msn.com
December 15, 2025 at 8:51 PM
"Thailand's military has restricted the movement of all fuel supplies through the Chong Mek border crossing into Laos after receiving intelligence that these were being routed to Cambodian troops, said Thai defence ministry spokesperson Rear Admiral Surasant Kongsiri." www.msn.com/en-ca/news/w...
Philippines / IMF Art IV staff report. Interesting case of big miss in growth projection between preparation of staff report & Board discussion, necessitating a 1 page update. Combination of severe typhoon season + gummed up public investment due to corruption scandals. www.imf.org/en/publicati...
December 15, 2025 at 2:54 AM
Philippines / IMF Art IV staff report. Interesting case of big miss in growth projection between preparation of staff report & Board discussion, necessitating a 1 page update. Combination of severe typhoon season + gummed up public investment due to corruption scandals. www.imf.org/en/publicati...
Senegal / FinDev Lab blog post by Martin Kessler on what was missed in the Senegal public debt statistics, detective work using WB data. One takeaway: the loan commitment data was generally accurate, albeit with a big miss in 2023, but tracking of disbursements was seriously deficient ...
December 13, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Senegal / FinDev Lab blog post by Martin Kessler on what was missed in the Senegal public debt statistics, detective work using WB data. One takeaway: the loan commitment data was generally accurate, albeit with a big miss in 2023, but tracking of disbursements was seriously deficient ...
This is a big loss. I haven't look at Jamaica macro the same way since reading Peter's analysis of the country's fiscal consolidation, and the broader lessons that he drew from it.
Very sad to hear that Peter Doyle has died. May he rest in peace. He was an all-too-rare iconoclastic voice in international macro. Do read @gabrielsterne.bsky.social and @generaltheorist.bsky.social's tribute to him: open.substack.com/pub/moneyins...
Peter Doyle
Tribute to a good salty man
open.substack.com
December 13, 2025 at 6:58 PM
This is a big loss. I haven't look at Jamaica macro the same way since reading Peter's analysis of the country's fiscal consolidation, and the broader lessons that he drew from it.
“Anyone who isn’t in a home with four walls and a roof, which is most people in Gaza, are exposed,” said Shira Efron, a senior fellow at the Rand think tank and a former adviser to the U.N. on Gaza." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Gazans Living Among Ruins Now Contend With Floods, Overflowing Sewage
Foul weather has worsened conditions among the more than one million people lacking adequate shelter.
www.wsj.com
December 13, 2025 at 2:25 PM
“Anyone who isn’t in a home with four walls and a roof, which is most people in Gaza, are exposed,” said Shira Efron, a senior fellow at the Rand think tank and a former adviser to the U.N. on Gaza." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Iran: "But cheap [gasoline] provides an opportunity for employment for the country. There are 25 million vehicles, including 3 million public and government-affiliated cars, as well as 6 million motorbikes in the Islamic Republic ..."
December 13, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Iran: "But cheap [gasoline] provides an opportunity for employment for the country. There are 25 million vehicles, including 3 million public and government-affiliated cars, as well as 6 million motorbikes in the Islamic Republic ..."
"On the main road that passes through Aceh Tamiang, AFP journalists saw a long line of trucks & private cars distributing food, water & other supplies. Many of the residents in nearby towns were camping outside in temporary structures, their homes filled with mud." sg.news.yahoo.com/indonesia-fl...
Indonesia flood death toll passes 1,000 as authorities ramp up aid
Devastating floods and landslides have killed 1,006 people in Indonesia, rescuers said Saturday as the Southeast Asian nation grapples with the huge scale of relief efforts.- Frustration grows -
Frust...
sg.news.yahoo.com
December 13, 2025 at 1:53 PM
"On the main road that passes through Aceh Tamiang, AFP journalists saw a long line of trucks & private cars distributing food, water & other supplies. Many of the residents in nearby towns were camping outside in temporary structures, their homes filled with mud." sg.news.yahoo.com/indonesia-fl...
"Innocent Batsani-Ncube, an associate professor of African politics at Queen Mary University of London and author of the book China and African Parliaments, said what China was doing as a major global power was not fundamentally different from other powers, ..."
December 13, 2025 at 1:50 PM
"Innocent Batsani-Ncube, an associate professor of African politics at Queen Mary University of London and author of the book China and African Parliaments, said what China was doing as a major global power was not fundamentally different from other powers, ..."
Jordan / IMF program reviews (EFF $130m, RSF $110m). "Efforts to maintain the long-term financial sustainability of the pension system & improve the efficiency & financial viability of public utilities are crucial."
Note: that pension system is a big holder of govt debt.
www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
Note: that pension system is a big holder of govt debt.
www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
IMF Executive Board Completes the Fourth Review under the Extended Fund Facility and First Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangements for Jordan
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the fourth review of the arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the first review of the Resilience and Sust...
www.imf.org
December 12, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Jordan / IMF program reviews (EFF $130m, RSF $110m). "Efforts to maintain the long-term financial sustainability of the pension system & improve the efficiency & financial viability of public utilities are crucial."
Note: that pension system is a big holder of govt debt.
www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
Note: that pension system is a big holder of govt debt.
www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
"Environmentalists say widespread forest loss has worsened floods and landslides, stripping the land of tree cover that normally stabilises soil and absorbs rainfall. Indonesia consistently ranks among the countries with the highest annual deforestation rates." sg.news.yahoo.com/nowhere-pray...
Nowhere to pray as logs choke flood-hit Indonesian mosque
Almost two weeks on from devastating floods, Muslim worshippers in Indonesia's Sumatra who gathered at their local mosque on Friday for prayers were blocked from entering by a huge pile of thousands o...
sg.news.yahoo.com
December 12, 2025 at 2:24 PM
"Environmentalists say widespread forest loss has worsened floods and landslides, stripping the land of tree cover that normally stabilises soil and absorbs rainfall. Indonesia consistently ranks among the countries with the highest annual deforestation rates." sg.news.yahoo.com/nowhere-pray...
Key points about tendency to overestimate persistence of negative shocks & lagging revisions to national accounts that extend beyond UK context. I think an additional sociological factor is annual cycle starting with Davos & concluding with Bank-Fund AMs that incentives overweighting downside risks.
Obviously, people will say this is Panglossian nonsense…
.. I prefer, “factual”
as.ft.com/r/f040c3e5-9... The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told
.. I prefer, “factual”
as.ft.com/r/f040c3e5-9... The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told
The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told
[FREE TO READ] A huge pessimistic bias in our national accounts leads us to doom and gloom which turns out to be nonsense
as.ft.com
December 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Key points about tendency to overestimate persistence of negative shocks & lagging revisions to national accounts that extend beyond UK context. I think an additional sociological factor is annual cycle starting with Davos & concluding with Bank-Fund AMs that incentives overweighting downside risks.
"Senegal's euro-denominated loans maturing as early as February are being discussed in the market currently at or below 80 cents on the euro, the sources said. As a result, the country is more reliant on commercial loans and domestic debt.:" www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
MSN
www.msn.com
December 12, 2025 at 12:22 PM
"Senegal's euro-denominated loans maturing as early as February are being discussed in the market currently at or below 80 cents on the euro, the sources said. As a result, the country is more reliant on commercial loans and domestic debt.:" www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
Thailand's Prime Minister dissolved parliament on Friday after three months in office, a royal decree showed, paving the way for general elections early next year. The move comes earlier than expected & during renewed deadly clashes [with] Cambodia []." sg.news.yahoo.com/thai-pm-diss...
Thai PM dissolves parliament, paving way for national elections
Thailand's Prime Minister dissolved parliament on Friday after three months in office, a royal decree showed, paving the way for general elections early next year."The House of Representatives is diss...
sg.news.yahoo.com
December 12, 2025 at 2:41 AM
Thailand's Prime Minister dissolved parliament on Friday after three months in office, a royal decree showed, paving the way for general elections early next year. The move comes earlier than expected & during renewed deadly clashes [with] Cambodia []." sg.news.yahoo.com/thai-pm-diss...
Nepal: "In terms of total physical damage, the committee estimates the loss to be equivalent to 84 arab 45 crore 77 lakh rupees ($586 million)," the statement said. The report said that damage to government and public buildings accounted for half of the amount." sg.news.yahoo.com/nepal-estima...
Nepal estimates millions in damages from September protests
Nepal on Thursday estimated that the country suffered losses of about $586 million in September's deadly anti-corruption protests that ousted the government."In terms of total physical damage, the com...
sg.news.yahoo.com
December 12, 2025 at 2:38 AM
Nepal: "In terms of total physical damage, the committee estimates the loss to be equivalent to 84 arab 45 crore 77 lakh rupees ($586 million)," the statement said. The report said that damage to government and public buildings accounted for half of the amount." sg.news.yahoo.com/nepal-estima...
Cambodia / WB Economic Update. Lots of near-contemporaneous detail on how the economy has dealt with the impact of of returnees & displaced from border conflict with Thailand. Notes the surge in reported job creation in qualified investment projects (QIPs) outside SEZs.
December 11, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Cambodia / WB Economic Update. Lots of near-contemporaneous detail on how the economy has dealt with the impact of of returnees & displaced from border conflict with Thailand. Notes the surge in reported job creation in qualified investment projects (QIPs) outside SEZs.
Pakistan / IMF EFF program (EFF+RSF) reviews staff report. "Further progress has been made in securing financing committed ahead of the EFF request, including from the Saudi Development Fund and China EXIM ..."
December 11, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Pakistan / IMF EFF program (EFF+RSF) reviews staff report. "Further progress has been made in securing financing committed ahead of the EFF request, including from the Saudi Development Fund and China EXIM ..."
China / World Bank Economic Update. Chart illustrates ample liquidity and muted credit appetite; govt bond purchases strong but bank loan growth low.
www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
December 11, 2025 at 2:58 PM
China / World Bank Economic Update. Chart illustrates ample liquidity and muted credit appetite; govt bond purchases strong but bank loan growth low.
www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
"Gabriel Caamaño, an economist at Argentine financial consultancy Outlier, said the domestic debt sale was an effort by Caputo “to quiet the whispers about currency controls” ...
December 10, 2025 at 8:50 PM
"Gabriel Caamaño, an economist at Argentine financial consultancy Outlier, said the domestic debt sale was an effort by Caputo “to quiet the whispers about currency controls” ...
Ethiopia / IMF ECF 4th review staff level agreement: "Available indicators point to accelerating growth since mid-2024, supported by strong gold, electricity, and agricultural production ... Continued action will be needed to enhance competition and improve efficiency in the foreign exchange ..."
December 10, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Ethiopia / IMF ECF 4th review staff level agreement: "Available indicators point to accelerating growth since mid-2024, supported by strong gold, electricity, and agricultural production ... Continued action will be needed to enhance competition and improve efficiency in the foreign exchange ..."
Nepal: "Remittance inflows surged between mid-September and mid-October, crossing 200 billion Nepali rupees ($1.4 billion) in a single month for the first time. Remittances make up the equivalent of around a third of Nepal's gross domestic product." www.yahoo.com/news/article...
Nepal faces economic fallout of September protest
When Nepal's government was toppled in September after deadly youth-led protests against economic stagnation and corruption, many in the impoverished country hoped for a period of meaningful political...
www.yahoo.com
December 10, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Nepal: "Remittance inflows surged between mid-September and mid-October, crossing 200 billion Nepali rupees ($1.4 billion) in a single month for the first time. Remittances make up the equivalent of around a third of Nepal's gross domestic product." www.yahoo.com/news/article...
Malawi / WB Public Finance Review. Striking long-term perspective on growth, fiscal, exchange rate, SOEs -- and recurrent policy changes and reversals. Chart illustrates the frequent changes in tax policy. www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
December 10, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Malawi / WB Public Finance Review. Striking long-term perspective on growth, fiscal, exchange rate, SOEs -- and recurrent policy changes and reversals. Chart illustrates the frequent changes in tax policy. www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
"According to Agarwal [Emirates NBD Capital], average Asian allocation in Gulf debt issues now ranged between 15% and 20%, up from 5% to 7% in early 2024. He said that while the majority of investors were not from mainland China, ..."
December 10, 2025 at 12:24 PM
"According to Agarwal [Emirates NBD Capital], average Asian allocation in Gulf debt issues now ranged between 15% and 20%, up from 5% to 7% in early 2024. He said that while the majority of investors were not from mainland China, ..."
Yemen: "It’s a game-changer,” said Ahmed Nagi, a Yemeni analyst at the Crisis Group think-tank. “The key question is to what extent the two countries are able to find common ground and understanding. If not, I’m afraid we are heading to a new crisis in the Gulf.” www.ft.com/content/09a3...
Saudi-UAE tensions rise over Yemen clashes
Advance by UAE-backed separatist group heightens differences between Gulf powers
www.ft.com
December 10, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Yemen: "It’s a game-changer,” said Ahmed Nagi, a Yemeni analyst at the Crisis Group think-tank. “The key question is to what extent the two countries are able to find common ground and understanding. If not, I’m afraid we are heading to a new crisis in the Gulf.” www.ft.com/content/09a3...
China / IMF Article IV mission concluding statement. Can't remember the last time an A4 mission had both the Managing Director and First Deputy Managing Director present for parts of it. www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Mission to the People's Republic of China
IMF staff projects China’s economy to grow by 5.0 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026. These projections reflect an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the ...
www.imf.org
December 10, 2025 at 11:58 AM
China / IMF Article IV mission concluding statement. Can't remember the last time an A4 mission had both the Managing Director and First Deputy Managing Director present for parts of it. www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
Martin Wolf: "Let us assume then that the US is going to promote the use of lightly regulated stablecoins, partly in order to enhance the dominant role of the US dollar and so help finance its huge fiscal deficits. What should other countries do?"
Why the world should worry about stablecoins on.ft.com/4rJihma | opinion
Why the world should worry about stablecoins
Dollar-based digital currencies offer benefits for the US, but Britain and the EU are better off resisting them
on.ft.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Martin Wolf: "Let us assume then that the US is going to promote the use of lightly regulated stablecoins, partly in order to enhance the dominant role of the US dollar and so help finance its huge fiscal deficits. What should other countries do?"