Kevin Carey
@kevincareywb.bsky.social
World Bank
Macro / Climate
Opinions are mine and not WB
X: Kevin_Carey_WB
Macro / Climate
Opinions are mine and not WB
X: Kevin_Carey_WB
Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD) / NBER Development Economics Program Meeting Friday December 5. Paper "Public R&D Meets Economic Development: Embrapa and Brazil’s Agricultural Revolution" by Akerman, Moscona, Pellegrina, Sastry. Motivating question: ...
December 2, 2025 at 1:22 AM
Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD) / NBER Development Economics Program Meeting Friday December 5. Paper "Public R&D Meets Economic Development: Embrapa and Brazil’s Agricultural Revolution" by Akerman, Moscona, Pellegrina, Sastry. Motivating question: ...
"Much of Asia is in its [] monsoon season, which often brings heavy rain, triggering landslides & flash floods. But the flooding that hit Indonesia, Thailand & Malaysia was also exacerbated by a rare tropical storm that dumped heavy rain on Sumatra in particular." sg.news.yahoo.com/militaries-c...
Asia floods toll tops 1,000 as military aid survivors
The toll in deadly flooding and landslides across parts of Asia climbed past 1,000 on Monday as hardest-hit Sri Lanka and Indonesia deployed military personnel to help survivors.- Sri Lanka seeks aid ...
sg.news.yahoo.com
December 1, 2025 at 8:03 PM
"Much of Asia is in its [] monsoon season, which often brings heavy rain, triggering landslides & flash floods. But the flooding that hit Indonesia, Thailand & Malaysia was also exacerbated by a rare tropical storm that dumped heavy rain on Sumatra in particular." sg.news.yahoo.com/militaries-c...
Ukraine / launch of exchange offer for the $3.24bn GDP-linked bonds, along with proposal for amendments to the securities. Negotiations continuing in parallel on unresolved issues with the bondholders. (via regulatory announcement to Irish Stock Exchange).
December 1, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Ukraine / launch of exchange offer for the $3.24bn GDP-linked bonds, along with proposal for amendments to the securities. Negotiations continuing in parallel on unresolved issues with the bondholders. (via regulatory announcement to Irish Stock Exchange).
"In this round, it isn’t Credit Suisse’s lending in question, but how it handled payments coming into a Credit Suisse client account from Mozambique’s Finance Ministry." www.wsj.com/finance/ubs-...
UBS Charged in Switzerland Over Credit Suisse ‘Tuna Bonds’ Scandal
The charges are the latest in a saga that started around 2013, when Credit Suisse arranged debt deals for state-owned companies in Mozambique.
www.wsj.com
December 1, 2025 at 1:48 PM
"In this round, it isn’t Credit Suisse’s lending in question, but how it handled payments coming into a Credit Suisse client account from Mozambique’s Finance Ministry." www.wsj.com/finance/ubs-...
India: "Unions organised demonstrations in several states as well as in New Delhi after the government suddenly enacted four new legislative codes, compressing and updating 29 laws — some of which date back to the colonial era — late last month." www.ft.com/content/2f8f...
India gets to grips with biggest labour law shake-up in decades
New regulations seek to formalise gig economy but some workers argue it makes it easier to be fired
www.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 1:31 PM
India: "Unions organised demonstrations in several states as well as in New Delhi after the government suddenly enacted four new legislative codes, compressing and updating 29 laws — some of which date back to the colonial era — late last month." www.ft.com/content/2f8f...
"Zillow’s own research has found that homes with high fire and flood risk scores were less likely to sell than homes with medium or low scores, though it did not attribute the sales trends to the climate risk scores."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings
www.nytimes.com
December 1, 2025 at 1:22 AM
"Zillow’s own research has found that homes with high fire and flood risk scores were less likely to sell than homes with medium or low scores, though it did not attribute the sales trends to the climate risk scores."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
"But zero coupon bonds (and the clue here is in the name) have no coupons." www.ft.com/content/7fb9...
Almost total bondholder wipeout
Austrian centurions: from hero to (almost) zero
www.ft.com
November 29, 2025 at 2:59 PM
"But zero coupon bonds (and the clue here is in the name) have no coupons." www.ft.com/content/7fb9...
Sri Lanka: "Officials said about a third of the country was without electricity or running water because power lines had collapsed and water purification facilities were inundated. Internet connections were also disrupted." #ditwah sg.news.yahoo.com/sri-lanka-se...
Sri Lanka declares emergency as toll from floods, mudslides hits 153
Sri Lanka declared a state of emergency on Saturday and appealed for international assistance as the death toll from floods and mudslides triggered by Cyclone Ditwah rose to 153, with another 191 peop...
sg.news.yahoo.com
November 29, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Sri Lanka: "Officials said about a third of the country was without electricity or running water because power lines had collapsed and water purification facilities were inundated. Internet connections were also disrupted." #ditwah sg.news.yahoo.com/sri-lanka-se...
"Richard Nugee, a retired lieutenant-general in the British Army and a national climate and security adviser, was among nine experts at a briefing in London this week to warn about the consequences of climate change ..."
November 28, 2025 at 9:44 PM
"Richard Nugee, a retired lieutenant-general in the British Army and a national climate and security adviser, was among nine experts at a briefing in London this week to warn about the consequences of climate change ..."
Joint report by Bloomberg NEF, Dubai Financial Services Authority, Hong Kong Monetary Authority on EM sustainable finance instruments in MENA & Asia Pacific. A basic takeaway: labeled debt in the two regions heavily skewed towards USD issuance (link at end of this page): www.dfsa.ae/news/dfsa-an...
November 28, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Joint report by Bloomberg NEF, Dubai Financial Services Authority, Hong Kong Monetary Authority on EM sustainable finance instruments in MENA & Asia Pacific. A basic takeaway: labeled debt in the two regions heavily skewed towards USD issuance (link at end of this page): www.dfsa.ae/news/dfsa-an...
"If NYSE’s New Jersey data center goes down, “all the other people just keep on trading,” said James Angel, a finance professor at Georgetown University. But on the futures side, “the concentration in CME becomes a single point of failure.” www.wsj.com/finance/cme-...
A Chicago Data Center Overheated—and Shut Down Trade in Key Markets Across the Globe
The outage, which lasted for 10 hours, hit CME’s equity, bond and commodity futures. It also offered a warning.
www.wsj.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:11 PM
"If NYSE’s New Jersey data center goes down, “all the other people just keep on trading,” said James Angel, a finance professor at Georgetown University. But on the futures side, “the concentration in CME becomes a single point of failure.” www.wsj.com/finance/cme-...
"A previous version of ZKP’s terms of service gave its legal name as Braxova Ltd, a Samoan business whose address is listed as being at an offshore business consultancy based in a two-storey building in the capital, Apia. The reference was subsequently removed." www.ft.com/content/9fb4...
FC Barcelona’s tie-up with Samoa-based crypto start-up sparks backlash
Heavily indebted club faces accusations of desperation over sponsorship deal with little-known firm Zero-Knowledge Proof
www.ft.com
November 28, 2025 at 7:47 PM
"A previous version of ZKP’s terms of service gave its legal name as Braxova Ltd, a Samoan business whose address is listed as being at an offshore business consultancy based in a two-storey building in the capital, Apia. The reference was subsequently removed." www.ft.com/content/9fb4...
"Sri Lanka is in its northeast monsoon season, but rainfall has intensified because of Cyclone Ditwah, the DMC said. [LKA] depends on [monsoon] rains for irrigation & hydroelectricity but experts have warned [LKA] faces more frequent floods due to climate change." sg.news.yahoo.com/sri-lanka-de...
Sri Lanka deploys troops as floodwaters rise, death toll hits 69
Sri Lankan troops were racing to rescue hundreds of people marooned by rising floodwaters on Friday as weather-related deaths rose to 69, with another 34 people declared missing.This week's weather-re...
sg.news.yahoo.com
November 28, 2025 at 7:42 PM
"Sri Lanka is in its northeast monsoon season, but rainfall has intensified because of Cyclone Ditwah, the DMC said. [LKA] depends on [monsoon] rains for irrigation & hydroelectricity but experts have warned [LKA] faces more frequent floods due to climate change." sg.news.yahoo.com/sri-lanka-de...
Iran / Hezbollah transfers (via WSJ): "Earnings derived from oil sales are sent to Iran-linked exchange shops, private companies, businessmen and couriers in Dubai, who move them to Hezbollah in Lebanon via the Hawala method, ..."
November 28, 2025 at 5:57 PM
Iran / Hezbollah transfers (via WSJ): "Earnings derived from oil sales are sent to Iran-linked exchange shops, private companies, businessmen and couriers in Dubai, who move them to Hezbollah in Lebanon via the Hawala method, ..."
Guinea-Bissau: "On Friday, N'Tam [interim leader] appointed current Finance Minister Ilidio Vieira Te as prime minister. He retains the finance portfolio." sg.news.yahoo.com/guinea-bissa...
Guinea-Bissau capital inches back to normal after coup
Life returned to a semblance of normality in the capital of Guinea-Bissau on Friday, two days after a military coup that saw elections suspended and the president flee into exile.Senegalese President ...
sg.news.yahoo.com
November 28, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Guinea-Bissau: "On Friday, N'Tam [interim leader] appointed current Finance Minister Ilidio Vieira Te as prime minister. He retains the finance portfolio." sg.news.yahoo.com/guinea-bissa...
Kenya / Mombasa to western Kenya transport corridor: "One phase of the highway project will cost $863 million and see China Road and Bridge Corporation partner with Kenya's state pension fund NSSF to expand two existing stretches of a single-lane, 139-kilometre (86-mile) highway ..."
November 28, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Kenya / Mombasa to western Kenya transport corridor: "One phase of the highway project will cost $863 million and see China Road and Bridge Corporation partner with Kenya's state pension fund NSSF to expand two existing stretches of a single-lane, 139-kilometre (86-mile) highway ..."
Senegal: "Finance Minister Cheikh Diba told parliament that Senegal needed a "very large amount" of financing totalling 6,000 billion CFA francs ($10.60 billion) annually on average ..."
November 28, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Senegal: "Finance Minister Cheikh Diba told parliament that Senegal needed a "very large amount" of financing totalling 6,000 billion CFA francs ($10.60 billion) annually on average ..."
"The coup and past ones in Guinea-Bissau are tied to “how much (state) institutions have been undermined and weakened,” said Beverly Ochieng, a senior security analyst at the consultancy Control Risks ..."
November 27, 2025 at 9:03 PM
"The coup and past ones in Guinea-Bissau are tied to “how much (state) institutions have been undermined and weakened,” said Beverly Ochieng, a senior security analyst at the consultancy Control Risks ..."
"This is a coup aimed at preventing the opposition candidate, Fernando Dias, from seizing power," a west African researcher and specialist in Guinea-Bissau told AFP on condition of anonymity ..."
November 27, 2025 at 7:58 PM
"This is a coup aimed at preventing the opposition candidate, Fernando Dias, from seizing power," a west African researcher and specialist in Guinea-Bissau told AFP on condition of anonymity ..."
With today's still unclear news from Guinea-Bissau, worth keeping in mind an IMF staff-level agreement on the 9th program (ECF) review 6 weeks ago, with proceeding to Board dependent on prior actions not listed. A delay could bring incipient liquidity stress to the fore. www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement with Guinea-Bissau on the Ninth Review of Extended Credit Facility Arrangement
A team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Niko Hobdari, Mission Chief for Guinea-Bissau, held meetings in Bissau during September 23 – October 3, 2025 to discuss macroeconomic policies...
www.imf.org
November 27, 2025 at 2:45 AM
With today's still unclear news from Guinea-Bissau, worth keeping in mind an IMF staff-level agreement on the 9th program (ECF) review 6 weeks ago, with proceeding to Board dependent on prior actions not listed. A delay could bring incipient liquidity stress to the fore. www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
Ukraine / IMF staff-level agreement on new EFF ($8.2bn): "Recent developments underline the importance of resolutely tackling corruption, improving governance, and continuing with reforms to state-owned enterprises (SOE) ..."
November 26, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Ukraine / IMF staff-level agreement on new EFF ($8.2bn): "Recent developments underline the importance of resolutely tackling corruption, improving governance, and continuing with reforms to state-owned enterprises (SOE) ..."
Thailand & Malaysia floods: "One resident of the city told the Thai public broadcaster that the whole lower level of his building was submerged, with water reaching about three and a half metres (11.5 feet) at its highest point." sg.news.yahoo.com/floods-thail...
Floods in Thailand, Malaysia kill over 30, displace thousands
Tens of thousands of people in Thailand and neighbouring Malaysia were displaced by widespread flooding, with streets submerged, homes inundated and at least 34 dead, officials said Wednesday.- Strand...
sg.news.yahoo.com
November 26, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Thailand & Malaysia floods: "One resident of the city told the Thai public broadcaster that the whole lower level of his building was submerged, with water reaching about three and a half metres (11.5 feet) at its highest point." sg.news.yahoo.com/floods-thail...
Senegal: "In October, the government revised its projected debt repayments for 2026 upwards by 11% to 5.49 trillion CFA, and said more big payments will fall due in the following two years ..."
November 26, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Senegal: "In October, the government revised its projected debt repayments for 2026 upwards by 11% to 5.49 trillion CFA, and said more big payments will fall due in the following two years ..."
"Senegal's GDP recalculation, published on Tuesday by the country's National Agency for Statistics and Demography, updates the base year from 2014 to 2021. The new 2021 GDP figure is 17,316 billion CFA francs, up 13.5% from the previous estimate, ..."
November 26, 2025 at 3:20 PM
"Senegal's GDP recalculation, published on Tuesday by the country's National Agency for Statistics and Demography, updates the base year from 2014 to 2021. The new 2021 GDP figure is 17,316 billion CFA francs, up 13.5% from the previous estimate, ..."
Tunisia / WB Economic Update with special topic of non-contributory social assistance program. Key elements of macro storyline: role of the "offshore" mechanical & electrical industry in sustaining the current account + increased reliance on domestic debt.
www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
November 26, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Tunisia / WB Economic Update with special topic of non-contributory social assistance program. Key elements of macro storyline: role of the "offshore" mechanical & electrical industry in sustaining the current account + increased reliance on domestic debt.
www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...