Matt "Winter is here"
@mattrobb.bsky.social
Politics, Education, Strategy, LFC and FF
No conspiracists, anti-vax, QAnon etc please.
No conspiracists, anti-vax, QAnon etc please.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Distributional analysis published alongside the Budget shows that the poorest will benefit most from the measures - particularly due to welfare and public service improvements.
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
November 26, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Distributional analysis published alongside the Budget shows that the poorest will benefit most from the measures - particularly due to welfare and public service improvements.
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Cost of extending the fuel duty cut plus cancelled uprating next year: £2.4 billion.
Cost of freezing rail fares next year: £145 million.
Sixteen times more expensive to maintain the fuel duty cut/freeze than to freeze rail fares
Imagine how much fares could be *cut* by ending car fuel subsidies.
Cost of freezing rail fares next year: £145 million.
Sixteen times more expensive to maintain the fuel duty cut/freeze than to freeze rail fares
Imagine how much fares could be *cut* by ending car fuel subsidies.
November 26, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Cost of extending the fuel duty cut plus cancelled uprating next year: £2.4 billion.
Cost of freezing rail fares next year: £145 million.
Sixteen times more expensive to maintain the fuel duty cut/freeze than to freeze rail fares
Imagine how much fares could be *cut* by ending car fuel subsidies.
Cost of freezing rail fares next year: £145 million.
Sixteen times more expensive to maintain the fuel duty cut/freeze than to freeze rail fares
Imagine how much fares could be *cut* by ending car fuel subsidies.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
New: @theins.press saw the Witkoff-Dmitriev plan six months ago in draft form—except it was all Dmitriev. Bloomberg reports now Dmitriev told Ushakov he’d pass along a Russian plan and the Americans “can present it as their own”: theins.press/en/politics/...
Made in Moscow: The “U.S. peace plan” for Ukraine was substantially formulated months ago by Kremlin operative Kirill Dmitriev
Since it was first published on Nov. 20, the much-discussed 28-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine has borne all the signs of a Kremlin information operation. In fact, many of its most controvers...
theins.press
November 26, 2025 at 1:19 PM
New: @theins.press saw the Witkoff-Dmitriev plan six months ago in draft form—except it was all Dmitriev. Bloomberg reports now Dmitriev told Ushakov he’d pass along a Russian plan and the Americans “can present it as their own”: theins.press/en/politics/...
Central point
The FT has hit on the biggest point in the OBR forecast.
NGDP is higher. That is the key to the finances being stable. www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
NGDP is higher. That is the key to the finances being stable. www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
November 26, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Central point
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
There's an interesting political economy angle to the fact that, with basically every single tax parameter frozen in cash terms (and personal tax thresholds now frozen to 2031), inflation is extremely beneficial for the public finances.
Rachel Reeves can count herself (at least a bit) lucky. OBR productivity downgrade would have knocked £16 billion off tax receipts. But she was saved by £32 billion of *extra* receipts from higher inflation and a shift to more tax-rich growth (lower profits, higher wages).
November 26, 2025 at 1:31 PM
There's an interesting political economy angle to the fact that, with basically every single tax parameter frozen in cash terms (and personal tax thresholds now frozen to 2031), inflation is extremely beneficial for the public finances.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
you don't have to squint very hard to see the effect of that Truss interlude on this country. If she was responsible for half of that gap with the G7 average, that turns into tens of billions of debt interest. It could be ... 0.8% of GDP less? £24bn less?
November 26, 2025 at 1:35 PM
you don't have to squint very hard to see the effect of that Truss interlude on this country. If she was responsible for half of that gap with the G7 average, that turns into tens of billions of debt interest. It could be ... 0.8% of GDP less? £24bn less?
Useful summary
Is runaway welfare spending to blame for the Chancellor's fiscal challenges?
Hear from @alexclegg.bsky.social on why any claims that the Chancellor could avoid raising in the Budget could by cutting welfare should be scrutinised.
Hear from @alexclegg.bsky.social on why any claims that the Chancellor could avoid raising in the Budget could by cutting welfare should be scrutinised.
November 26, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Useful summary
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
The BBC is reporting details from Shumeet Banerji's resignation letter from the BBC Board.
Pretty obvious implication is that Samir Shah has been running the board incompetently, and not defending executives against Robbie Gibb and chums.
Pretty obvious implication is that Samir Shah has been running the board incompetently, and not defending executives against Robbie Gibb and chums.
November 25, 2025 at 10:59 PM
The BBC is reporting details from Shumeet Banerji's resignation letter from the BBC Board.
Pretty obvious implication is that Samir Shah has been running the board incompetently, and not defending executives against Robbie Gibb and chums.
Pretty obvious implication is that Samir Shah has been running the board incompetently, and not defending executives against Robbie Gibb and chums.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Bruun Larsen isn't a sure starter for a relegation candidate, whilst Mitoma likely played through injury. Falling below -1.5 standard deviations should always raise concerns. Without making judgments on why this is, I think it's safe to say there are unique circumstances behind this.
Follow up from last month. This time with a more narrow focus on wide attackers for a more fair positional comparison. Salah is a great player but it's not quite working right now. Unusual territory.
November 26, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Bruun Larsen isn't a sure starter for a relegation candidate, whilst Mitoma likely played through injury. Falling below -1.5 standard deviations should always raise concerns. Without making judgments on why this is, I think it's safe to say there are unique circumstances behind this.
Well worth reading
tl;dr Whilst LLMs are useful, deployed well, they are nothing like 'general intelligence'.
tl;dr Whilst LLMs are useful, deployed well, they are nothing like 'general intelligence'.
I’ve been running around asking tech execs and academics if language was the same as intelligence for over a year now - and, well, it isn’t. @benjaminjriley.bsky.social explains how the bubble is built on ignoring cutting-edge research into the science of thought www.theverge.com/ai-artificia...
November 26, 2025 at 6:57 AM
Well worth reading
tl;dr Whilst LLMs are useful, deployed well, they are nothing like 'general intelligence'.
tl;dr Whilst LLMs are useful, deployed well, they are nothing like 'general intelligence'.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Why the two-child limit has to go, in a chart.
November 25, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Why the two-child limit has to go, in a chart.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
I’m increasingly convinced by the argument China’s decade-long investment to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, and particularly imports, is not only creating a new electrified model that other South countries can benefit from, but is leaving the West behind because it can’t ditch fossil fuels.
July 26, 2025 at 11:42 PM
I’m increasingly convinced by the argument China’s decade-long investment to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, and particularly imports, is not only creating a new electrified model that other South countries can benefit from, but is leaving the West behind because it can’t ditch fossil fuels.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
And note this about the Reith Lectures - it is not about news reporting
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 12:15 PM
And note this about the Reith Lectures - it is not about news reporting
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
It’s especially ironic because the lecture is exactly about the ‘paralyzing cowardice’ of today’s elites.
About universities, corporations and media networks bending the knee to authoritarianism. /4
About universities, corporations and media networks bending the knee to authoritarianism. /4
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
It’s especially ironic because the lecture is exactly about the ‘paralyzing cowardice’ of today’s elites.
About universities, corporations and media networks bending the knee to authoritarianism. /4
About universities, corporations and media networks bending the knee to authoritarianism. /4
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
Kazakh route to sanctions-busting Russian imports looks to be closing...
...this is very big news if true
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-x3b...
...this is very big news if true
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-x3b...
Russia suffers the biggest logistical shutdown since the beginning of the war
YouTube video by RFU News — Reporting from Ukraine
www.youtube.com
November 24, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Kazakh route to sanctions-busting Russian imports looks to be closing...
...this is very big news if true
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-x3b...
...this is very big news if true
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-x3b...
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
We are not yet a year into Trump’s second term and already DOGE has been mothballed, MTG has bailed from Congress, the administration tried and failed to present a Russian plan to end the war, and the ‘Secretary of War’ is trying to court-martial a US Senator. Time for a reminder of this I think…
November 24, 2025 at 8:20 PM
We are not yet a year into Trump’s second term and already DOGE has been mothballed, MTG has bailed from Congress, the administration tried and failed to present a Russian plan to end the war, and the ‘Secretary of War’ is trying to court-martial a US Senator. Time for a reminder of this I think…
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
@fireeyebooks.bsky.social
@coko.bsky.social
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@whatifisaidit.bsky.social
@allie-froglegs.bsky.social
@markymark757.bsky.social
@abbarsha.bsky.social
@bm1970.bsky.social
@still-leslie.bsky.social
@crankyoldcrackpot.bsky.social
@6j1.bsky.social
@nastazia.bsky.social
@coko.bsky.social
@kingresist.bsky.social
@whatifisaidit.bsky.social
@allie-froglegs.bsky.social
@markymark757.bsky.social
@abbarsha.bsky.social
@bm1970.bsky.social
@still-leslie.bsky.social
@crankyoldcrackpot.bsky.social
@6j1.bsky.social
@nastazia.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 10:14 PM
The f*cking babies on this thread are incredible.
Landlords, grocery store owners and security guards, etc. are all forcing me to work. If I can't live without money, then I am forced to work. Not by "capitalism" as some abstract force, but by all the people who greatly benefit from it while the rest of us toil for their wealth.
November 24, 2025 at 8:57 PM
The f*cking babies on this thread are incredible.
The replies to this show just how lacking the country is in basic economic knowledge.
So many people wandering around with just bonkers ideas in their heads.
So many people wandering around with just bonkers ideas in their heads.
Also, capitalism doesn't force you to
You choose to do a job that requires that because it pays more. That's you responding to economic incentives. Your choice. Capitalism isn't forcing you, it's giving you the choice.
You choose to do a job that requires that because it pays more. That's you responding to economic incentives. Your choice. Capitalism isn't forcing you, it's giving you the choice.
November 24, 2025 at 2:51 PM
The replies to this show just how lacking the country is in basic economic knowledge.
So many people wandering around with just bonkers ideas in their heads.
So many people wandering around with just bonkers ideas in their heads.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
It's not going away
November 24, 2025 at 7:30 AM
It's not going away
Thread
This is all well known (though valuable to read) because *it's what f*cking happened last time, you morons*
This is all well known (though valuable to read) because *it's what f*cking happened last time, you morons*
The foolishness of re-nationalisation in a post.
I'm traveling from Oxford to Durham today, by train, to give a lecture. I could have hired a car, but decided to do this so as to write.
/1
I'm traveling from Oxford to Durham today, by train, to give a lecture. I could have hired a car, but decided to do this so as to write.
/1
Train fares frozen: not happened for decades.
Bringing rail back into public ownership means we can take action on fares.
Bringing rail back into public ownership means we can take action on fares.
November 24, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Thread
This is all well known (though valuable to read) because *it's what f*cking happened last time, you morons*
This is all well known (though valuable to read) because *it's what f*cking happened last time, you morons*
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
This is one of the big accounts boosting Tommy Robinson, Farage and Reform and ‘English Patriots’.
It’s Russian.
It’s Russian.
November 24, 2025 at 9:29 AM
This is one of the big accounts boosting Tommy Robinson, Farage and Reform and ‘English Patriots’.
It’s Russian.
It’s Russian.
Reposted by Matt "Winter is here"
Hmmm - so tacking hard right on immigration led the Danish equivalent of Labour to lose the capital city for the first time in a century to a “Green-Left” party?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?
November 22, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Hmmm - so tacking hard right on immigration led the Danish equivalent of Labour to lose the capital city for the first time in a century to a “Green-Left” party?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?