Matt "Winter is here"
@mattrobb.bsky.social
Politics, Education, Strategy, LFC and FF
No conspiracists, anti-vax, QAnon etc please.
No conspiracists, anti-vax, QAnon etc please.
You might not care at all, which is on you.
But it might help you to think: a single govt act has - in this example - wiped out 1/3 of the value of the house they can live in.
But if you don't care, so be it.
But it might help you to think: a single govt act has - in this example - wiped out 1/3 of the value of the house they can live in.
But if you don't care, so be it.
November 27, 2025 at 9:10 AM
You might not care at all, which is on you.
But it might help you to think: a single govt act has - in this example - wiped out 1/3 of the value of the house they can live in.
But if you don't care, so be it.
But it might help you to think: a single govt act has - in this example - wiped out 1/3 of the value of the house they can live in.
But if you don't care, so be it.
And you've lost lots of capital, had to move your family to a cheaper/worse home
Easy for you to tell them it's trivial and they should shut up
Easy for you to tell them it's trivial and they should shut up
November 27, 2025 at 8:32 AM
And you've lost lots of capital, had to move your family to a cheaper/worse home
Easy for you to tell them it's trivial and they should shut up
Easy for you to tell them it's trivial and they should shut up
Most will
But you said 'just move'. If someone had to move, it's a pretty serious undertaking.
In practice, I believe that they can defer to sale (which will presumably be at non-commercial rates) which is the more likely option
But you said 'just move'. If someone had to move, it's a pretty serious undertaking.
In practice, I believe that they can defer to sale (which will presumably be at non-commercial rates) which is the more likely option
November 27, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Most will
But you said 'just move'. If someone had to move, it's a pretty serious undertaking.
In practice, I believe that they can defer to sale (which will presumably be at non-commercial rates) which is the more likely option
But you said 'just move'. If someone had to move, it's a pretty serious undertaking.
In practice, I believe that they can defer to sale (which will presumably be at non-commercial rates) which is the more likely option
Most people with £1.5M houses have £1M mortgages. You seem to think that they have £1.5M of equity, which is obviously false.
November 27, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Most people with £1.5M houses have £1M mortgages. You seem to think that they have £1.5M of equity, which is obviously false.
Obviously. But that's on you.
November 27, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Obviously. But that's on you.
Maybe that's where they live... access to jobs, schools their kids are at etc
If govt introduces a tax that means you've got to live in a 25% less valuable place, it's a pretty dramatic change
If govt introduces a tax that means you've got to live in a 25% less valuable place, it's a pretty dramatic change
November 27, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Maybe that's where they live... access to jobs, schools their kids are at etc
If govt introduces a tax that means you've got to live in a 25% less valuable place, it's a pretty dramatic change
If govt introduces a tax that means you've got to live in a 25% less valuable place, it's a pretty dramatic change
Which, if you've got £2M equity in the house is pretty painful. But it you've only got £1M and the rest is mortgage, is 15% of the total value of the house you own
It's not trivial, even if these folks aren't destitute
It's not trivial, even if these folks aren't destitute
November 27, 2025 at 7:26 AM
Which, if you've got £2M equity in the house is pretty painful. But it you've only got £1M and the rest is mortgage, is 15% of the total value of the house you own
It's not trivial, even if these folks aren't destitute
It's not trivial, even if these folks aren't destitute
Without wanting to make more of this than there is, selling up when your house has just fallen in value due to the tax by ~£50k and if you buy a slightly smaller home at £1.5M you need to find ~£100K of stamp duty
It's just cost you £150K in cash.
1/
It's just cost you £150K in cash.
1/
November 27, 2025 at 7:26 AM
Without wanting to make more of this than there is, selling up when your house has just fallen in value due to the tax by ~£50k and if you buy a slightly smaller home at £1.5M you need to find ~£100K of stamp duty
It's just cost you £150K in cash.
1/
It's just cost you £150K in cash.
1/
Not yet. But form is relegation
Apart from Real, who were bad, have we played well yet this season? Major problems with recruiting, tactics, performance levels, player integration.... it's pretty much an omnishambles.
E.g. this is completely inexplicable on Salah
bsky.app/profile/chri...
Apart from Real, who were bad, have we played well yet this season? Major problems with recruiting, tactics, performance levels, player integration.... it's pretty much an omnishambles.
E.g. this is completely inexplicable on Salah
bsky.app/profile/chri...
Bruun Larsen isn't a sure starter for a relegation candidate, whilst Mitoma likely played through injury. Falling below -1.5 standard deviations should always raise concerns. Without making judgments on why this is, I think it's safe to say there are unique circumstances behind this.
Follow up from last month. This time with a more narrow focus on wide attackers for a more fair positional comparison. Salah is a great player but it's not quite working right now. Unusual territory.
November 26, 2025 at 10:56 PM
Not yet. But form is relegation
Apart from Real, who were bad, have we played well yet this season? Major problems with recruiting, tactics, performance levels, player integration.... it's pretty much an omnishambles.
E.g. this is completely inexplicable on Salah
bsky.app/profile/chri...
Apart from Real, who were bad, have we played well yet this season? Major problems with recruiting, tactics, performance levels, player integration.... it's pretty much an omnishambles.
E.g. this is completely inexplicable on Salah
bsky.app/profile/chri...
Medieval Total War II
November 26, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Medieval Total War II
Just having him hang from the bar would be more use than most of our defence right now
November 26, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Just having him hang from the bar would be more use than most of our defence right now
This team has pretty much given up. Not sure why, because not getting any sense of rancour with Slot
But we move closer to sacking territory which is completely ridiculous. Am guessing European football is the floor target...
But we move closer to sacking territory which is completely ridiculous. Am guessing European football is the floor target...
November 26, 2025 at 9:56 PM
This team has pretty much given up. Not sure why, because not getting any sense of rancour with Slot
But we move closer to sacking territory which is completely ridiculous. Am guessing European football is the floor target...
But we move closer to sacking territory which is completely ridiculous. Am guessing European football is the floor target...
Losing 3-1 to a team with 1.85 xG, almost half of which is a controversial pen
And we have 2xG and 1 goal to show for it, with £200M of striker value on the pitch.
Every game...
And we have 2xG and 1 goal to show for it, with £200M of striker value on the pitch.
Every game...
November 26, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Losing 3-1 to a team with 1.85 xG, almost half of which is a controversial pen
And we have 2xG and 1 goal to show for it, with £200M of striker value on the pitch.
Every game...
And we have 2xG and 1 goal to show for it, with £200M of striker value on the pitch.
Every game...
Maybe Szobo plus Ekitike + 9.
But Ekitike is now injured...
But Ekitike is now injured...
November 26, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Maybe Szobo plus Ekitike + 9.
But Ekitike is now injured...
But Ekitike is now injured...
We are Szobo + 10 right now
November 26, 2025 at 8:21 PM
We are Szobo + 10 right now
Lots of countries do… mostly poor ones where tourists out-earn locals by a long way
November 26, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Lots of countries do… mostly poor ones where tourists out-earn locals by a long way
This is actually a key point. By keeping everything secret (which preserves the sanctity of the conviction), we lose any ability to learn anything
It’s a bad trade off
It’s a bad trade off
November 26, 2025 at 2:44 PM
This is actually a key point. By keeping everything secret (which preserves the sanctity of the conviction), we lose any ability to learn anything
It’s a bad trade off
It’s a bad trade off
Everyone else hoping a new government (and chancellor) turns up in the next couple of years...
November 26, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Everyone else hoping a new government (and chancellor) turns up in the next couple of years...
Road pricing isn't this govt. A mansion tax is politically the easiest thing in the world. Practically it's much more difficult as @danneidle.bsky.social has pointed out
Politically difficult stuff they dodged? Proper property tax reform, lots of other reforms to tax, broader-based income tax...
Politically difficult stuff they dodged? Proper property tax reform, lots of other reforms to tax, broader-based income tax...
November 26, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Road pricing isn't this govt. A mansion tax is politically the easiest thing in the world. Practically it's much more difficult as @danneidle.bsky.social has pointed out
Politically difficult stuff they dodged? Proper property tax reform, lots of other reforms to tax, broader-based income tax...
Politically difficult stuff they dodged? Proper property tax reform, lots of other reforms to tax, broader-based income tax...