Matthew Cebul
@matthewcebul.bsky.social
Political scientist studying civil resistance, democratic erosion, and US foreign policy in MENA. Lead Research Fellow at HKS Nonviolent Action Lab; formerly USIP. Manservant to Korra the cat.
Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."
Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."
Pinned
Nonviolent Action Against Democratic Erosion: The United States in Comparative Perspective – Ash Center
ash.harvard.edu
My report on Nonviolent Action against Democratic Erosion is finally out today @harvardash.bsky.social!
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
Great piece. Two comments:
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
My @nytimes.com op-ed: The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o... (gift link)
The key point: "The absence of young people from conventional protests is both a problem and a warning."
The key point: "The absence of young people from conventional protests is both a problem and a warning."
Opinion | The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z?
www.nytimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Great piece. Two comments:
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
1) Low Gen-Z participation in US protests is a stark departure from the global trend. Gen-Z is mobilizing for anti-corruption protests all over the place. Why not here?
IMO, Brendan's right about Dem weakness. Gerontocratic Dems just aren't authentic on anti-corruption.
Cracks me up every time
November 21, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Cracks me up every time
I opposed Trump's Iran strikes b/c I worried (and still do) that they all but guarantee future Iranian attempts to nuclearize.
For now, however, Iran may have bigger problems. "Our capital city is running out of water" + "we have no $$ due to sanctions" is not a good look.
For now, however, Iran may have bigger problems. "Our capital city is running out of water" + "we have no $$ due to sanctions" is not a good look.
This seems like a crazy important story that is getting very little coverage here - especially if it destabilizes the regime
'Iran’s capital must be moved because the country “no longer has a choice,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday in remarks carried by state media, warning that severe ecological strain has made Tehran impossible to sustain'
#Iran 🇮🇷
#Iran 🇮🇷
November 21, 2025 at 5:16 PM
I opposed Trump's Iran strikes b/c I worried (and still do) that they all but guarantee future Iranian attempts to nuclearize.
For now, however, Iran may have bigger problems. "Our capital city is running out of water" + "we have no $$ due to sanctions" is not a good look.
For now, however, Iran may have bigger problems. "Our capital city is running out of water" + "we have no $$ due to sanctions" is not a good look.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Hungary’s Orban seemed undefeatable a year ago.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
November 20, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Hungary’s Orban seemed undefeatable a year ago.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
My report on Nonviolent Action against Democratic Erosion is finally out today @harvardash.bsky.social!
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
Nonviolent Action Against Democratic Erosion: The United States in Comparative Perspective – Ash Center
ash.harvard.edu
November 20, 2025 at 5:57 PM
My report on Nonviolent Action against Democratic Erosion is finally out today @harvardash.bsky.social!
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
This is a really important visualization that speaks to why Dems should stop giving "moderate" GOP elites a pass:
Half of the GOP is an extremist freak show, and Dems can drive a wedge into the party's base of support by incessantly holding the GOP's left mode accountable for its right mode.
Half of the GOP is an extremist freak show, and Dems can drive a wedge into the party's base of support by incessantly holding the GOP's left mode accountable for its right mode.
Not the point of @gelliottmorris.com piece, but look at this divide among Republicans on social issues. Half of them look like normal people and the other half are way out of step with the rest of the country. There’s a bit of a mirror on the left but much smaller.
November 20, 2025 at 2:58 PM
This is a really important visualization that speaks to why Dems should stop giving "moderate" GOP elites a pass:
Half of the GOP is an extremist freak show, and Dems can drive a wedge into the party's base of support by incessantly holding the GOP's left mode accountable for its right mode.
Half of the GOP is an extremist freak show, and Dems can drive a wedge into the party's base of support by incessantly holding the GOP's left mode accountable for its right mode.
🎯. I am wholly convinced that the path forward for Dems is the most aggressive anti-corruption campaign in US history.
Not just rhetorical flourishes. A genuine commitment to elite accountability and to purging big money from US politics, no matter what the big donors say.
Not just rhetorical flourishes. A genuine commitment to elite accountability and to purging big money from US politics, no matter what the big donors say.
Moderation as a strategy, "It's tapped out. There are no gains left to be had. ....I see anti-corruption as this very open lane for realignment," says @adambonica.bsky.social. newrepublic.com/article/2030...
Transcript: Anti-Corruption Politics Are The Way to Crush Trumpism
Stanford political scientist Adam Bonica says trying to be more moderate is a dead end for Democrats and the solution is for the party to be seen as fighting against corruption, oligarchy and other il...
newrepublic.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:07 PM
🎯. I am wholly convinced that the path forward for Dems is the most aggressive anti-corruption campaign in US history.
Not just rhetorical flourishes. A genuine commitment to elite accountability and to purging big money from US politics, no matter what the big donors say.
Not just rhetorical flourishes. A genuine commitment to elite accountability and to purging big money from US politics, no matter what the big donors say.
MTG is positioning herself to attract Trump voters looking for an excuse to leave Trump without taking actual culpability / facing any consequences for their actions. “It’s ok, we were all duped”
BASH: We have seen these attacks from the president at other people. It's not new. And I haven't heard you speak out about it until it was directed at you.
MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE: I think that's fair criticism. And I would like to say, humbly, I'm sorry for taking part in the toxic politics.
MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE: I think that's fair criticism. And I would like to say, humbly, I'm sorry for taking part in the toxic politics.
November 16, 2025 at 6:22 PM
MTG is positioning herself to attract Trump voters looking for an excuse to leave Trump without taking actual culpability / facing any consequences for their actions. “It’s ok, we were all duped”
Hat tip to @wired.com for this excellent piece of journalism on Gen-Z protests in Nepal www.wired.com/story/nepal-...
The Inside Story of How Gen Z Toppled Nepal’s Leader and Chose a New One on Discord
The revolution started on social media. It ended with protests, violence, and an online poll to pick the new prime minister.
www.wired.com
November 15, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Hat tip to @wired.com for this excellent piece of journalism on Gen-Z protests in Nepal www.wired.com/story/nepal-...
it's right next to the Siren School for Nautical Navigation
Sisypheus hauling services. You’ll keep calling us back.
This is a real flight school, teaching people to fly planes!!! Like????
November 14, 2025 at 2:03 PM
it's right next to the Siren School for Nautical Navigation
Today's writing flow state music: Daft Punk, Derezzed.
On repeat. That's it.
(Is this insane? Yes. Does it work? Apparently, also yes.)
On repeat. That's it.
(Is this insane? Yes. Does it work? Apparently, also yes.)
Daft Punk - Derezzed (from TRON: Legacy)
YouTube video by DisneyMusicVEVO
www.youtube.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Today's writing flow state music: Daft Punk, Derezzed.
On repeat. That's it.
(Is this insane? Yes. Does it work? Apparently, also yes.)
On repeat. That's it.
(Is this insane? Yes. Does it work? Apparently, also yes.)
My kingdom for a Democrat willing to peg a campaign around a new Anti-Corruption Task Force.
"I don't give a damn who they are or how much money they have, these corrupt assholes are going to pay for their crimes" would do Saddam Hussein numbers.
"I don't give a damn who they are or how much money they have, these corrupt assholes are going to pay for their crimes" would do Saddam Hussein numbers.
i’ve said this before and i remain convinced it’s true, the 2028 platform that would deliver obama 08 results is “i am gonna
bring the hammer down on the corrupt self-dealing politicians and their rich friends and there are no sacred cows id give a pass”
bring the hammer down on the corrupt self-dealing politicians and their rich friends and there are no sacred cows id give a pass”
November 13, 2025 at 2:35 PM
My kingdom for a Democrat willing to peg a campaign around a new Anti-Corruption Task Force.
"I don't give a damn who they are or how much money they have, these corrupt assholes are going to pay for their crimes" would do Saddam Hussein numbers.
"I don't give a damn who they are or how much money they have, these corrupt assholes are going to pay for their crimes" would do Saddam Hussein numbers.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Your daily reminder that anti corruption is THE issue in American politics today, and it’s the path of least resistance (from non billionaires at least) to restoring the Dem party brand.
The Epstein story gets a something that is tearing at the heart of the electorate: elite impunity. The idea that wealthy and powerful people can do terrible things *at scale* and face no consequences for them. Whatever political party actually stops it could rule the country for a generation.
November 12, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Your daily reminder that anti corruption is THE issue in American politics today, and it’s the path of least resistance (from non billionaires at least) to restoring the Dem party brand.
Dem electeds continue to treat GOP colleagues as if they are someone separate from this, when they should instead be demanding to know whether Mike Johnson took personal bribes to cover for Trump raping children.
the only thing democrats should be saying today is “the entire republican party is engaged in a coverup of the most notorious child sex trafficking ring in world history”
November 12, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Dem electeds continue to treat GOP colleagues as if they are someone separate from this, when they should instead be demanding to know whether Mike Johnson took personal bribes to cover for Trump raping children.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Three German universities offering post-docs for researchers "who cannot conduct or continue their work in the USA appropriately because of actual political pressure. "
www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskoll...
www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskoll...
Early Career Rescue Fellowship
www.uni-konstanz.de
November 11, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Three German universities offering post-docs for researchers "who cannot conduct or continue their work in the USA appropriately because of actual political pressure. "
www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskoll...
www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskoll...
My position hasn't changed since March: ZERO donations to ANY incumbent Dems until Schumer steps down.
"But some are good!"
Too bad. Dems need to feel existential pressure for change. The good apples can fight to bring down Schumer and transform the party, or they can go down with the ship.
"But some are good!"
Too bad. Dems need to feel existential pressure for change. The good apples can fight to bring down Schumer and transform the party, or they can go down with the ship.
Yup, and the damage isn’t so much in the story as in the proof of weakness. Trump now knows he has new torture tools to make Dems do what he wants. It’s why at least one of the 7 capitulators oughta be run out of office now, mid session. Get that number down to 6. www.offmessage.net/p/16-thought...
November 10, 2025 at 3:12 PM
My position hasn't changed since March: ZERO donations to ANY incumbent Dems until Schumer steps down.
"But some are good!"
Too bad. Dems need to feel existential pressure for change. The good apples can fight to bring down Schumer and transform the party, or they can go down with the ship.
"But some are good!"
Too bad. Dems need to feel existential pressure for change. The good apples can fight to bring down Schumer and transform the party, or they can go down with the ship.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Even if I accept these claims—and I do not—none of this is justification for caving today.
Dems could have used the holidays to ratchet up pressure on Trump to engage (or to further immolate over SNAP funding and drive his poll numbers down).
Instead, they caved two weeks early.
Dems could have used the holidays to ratchet up pressure on Trump to engage (or to further immolate over SNAP funding and drive his poll numbers down).
Instead, they caved two weeks early.
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
November 10, 2025 at 12:56 AM
Even if I accept these claims—and I do not—none of this is justification for caving today.
Dems could have used the holidays to ratchet up pressure on Trump to engage (or to further immolate over SNAP funding and drive his poll numbers down).
Instead, they caved two weeks early.
Dems could have used the holidays to ratchet up pressure on Trump to engage (or to further immolate over SNAP funding and drive his poll numbers down).
Instead, they caved two weeks early.
Reposted by Matthew Cebul
Dem electeds still do not understand that, as livid as Americans are with Trump, they are just as, if not more furious with the Dems’ jaw-dropping cowardice as Trump walks all over their constituents.
November 10, 2025 at 12:47 AM
Dem electeds still do not understand that, as livid as Americans are with Trump, they are just as, if not more furious with the Dems’ jaw-dropping cowardice as Trump walks all over their constituents.
One silver lining from this disaster is that the Dems who will cave on this are likely the same Dems who want to keep the filibuster — we now have an even more legible justification for voters to cull them.
Dems backed Trump into a corner where he’s advocating for starving Americans and hemorrhaging support. If they vote to let him off the hook in exchange for nothing it’s a cataclysmic failure. I know people are in pain but insulating Republicans from political consequences is not the answer.
November 9, 2025 at 11:16 PM
One silver lining from this disaster is that the Dems who will cave on this are likely the same Dems who want to keep the filibuster — we now have an even more legible justification for voters to cull them.
Meanwhile, in the Middle East: 👀👀👀
“The United States is preparing to establish a military presence at an airbase in Damascus to help enable a security pact that Washington is brokering between Syria and Israel, six sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.” Really now.
November 6, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Meanwhile, in the Middle East: 👀👀👀
More of this. Dems should explicitly invoke Trump’s “dealmaker” status to force him into the conversation.
This also has the added benefit of totally humiliating Congressional Rs as toadies who clearly can’t think or act for themselves
This also has the added benefit of totally humiliating Congressional Rs as toadies who clearly can’t think or act for themselves
Day 37 of America held hostage by Trump and Republicans. Time for Trump to start using those negotiation skills he talks so much about and help us reopen the government and lower healthcare costs.
November 6, 2025 at 8:27 PM
More of this. Dems should explicitly invoke Trump’s “dealmaker” status to force him into the conversation.
This also has the added benefit of totally humiliating Congressional Rs as toadies who clearly can’t think or act for themselves
This also has the added benefit of totally humiliating Congressional Rs as toadies who clearly can’t think or act for themselves
DC JURY: AIRBORNE SUB WAS A MOMENT OF LEAVITY
November 6, 2025 at 8:21 PM
DC JURY: AIRBORNE SUB WAS A MOMENT OF LEAVITY