2) Gen-Zers may not be protesting en masse, but it's a mistake to conclude that they are wholly disillusioned.

The Mamdani coalition is proof that young Americans can be highly energized. The problem isn't Gen-Z disinterest: it's that US politicians have failed to proactively earn their support.

In sum: “Don’t panic, organize” is good advice.

The democracy movement is on solid footing in the US. Sure, the Dems needs to reform, and activists need to embrace big-tent electoral coalition building.

But Doomerism is unwarranted. Democracy movements have succeeded in *far* worse circumstances.

Put differently, US activist-party tensions reflect the fact that Dem electeds and activists are both right.

Beating illiberalism requires a broad electoral coalition (aka standard politicking). But the situation is more urgent than usual. Dems can't “play dead” while Trump guts the rule of law.

Moreover, given the Dem's structural disadvantages in Congress, Dems really do need to broaden the tent and speak to voters beyond highly mobilized liberals.

(Yes, I am deliberately sidestepping the dreaded “m” word, thank you for noticing, @gelliottmorris.com and co have it covered)

That said, democracy activists can’t just defenestrate the Dem party, either.

Like it or not, the Dems are the only available opposition party, and electoral politics is the movement’s only real path to institutional power and durable democracy reforms.

Recent Dem electoral victories elide the severity of the problem. Activists are highly motivated, but fury at Dem elites is draining energy and attention better spent on coalition building / tough upcoming races.

Dems need to regain credibility. Hard to see how they do that without turnover.

4. The activist-party schism is a serious concern.

Feckless Dem leaders have heedlessly and needlessly alienated democracy activists. This has undermined cooperation, crushed the party brand, and generally weakened the pro-democracy coalition.

This is untenable. Something's gotta give.

3. How does the US context compare to other erosion cases?
I think the answer is: very favorably.

Civil liberty protections are strong. Trump is a wildly unpopular lame duck. Polarization is ugly, but surmountable. Institutional collapse is unlikely.

HOWEVER:

Factional infighting: even ignoring polarization, democracy's allies do not always get along.

For instance, tensions between activists and opposition parties are common. These groups need each other to succeed, but can also really hate each other’s guts.

The point: coalition building is hard!

We also know that polarization (which is pretty common in eroding democracies) also works against nonviolent coalition building.

If people care deeply about their “team” winning, it gets harder to recruit disaffected regime supporters into a democracy movement.

Illiberal populists can be very popular. Think Duterte, Bukele, Kais Saied, etc. And if they governed poorly, pro-democracy establishment parties can be extremely unpopular.

It can be tough to mobilize a broad pro-democracy coalition when people like illiberal leaders more than their competitors.

2. Repression / digital authoritarianism / etc. is a real and growing challenge.

But in many cases of democratic erosion (including the US), repression isn’t actually the biggest impediment to successful nonviolent democracy movements.

Coalition building is.

1. Civic democracy movements are key to democratic resilience. Even strong democratic institutions cannot defend themselves from erosion indefinitely.

This point has been painfully obvious to everyone except the Americanists for ages now, and there are tons of examples: I won’t belabor it further.

We gripe incessantly about divides within the Dem coalition, but just look at the figure: factional divides on the GOP side are enormous!

Instead of calling for bipartisanship with the GOP, Dems should aggressively castigate the GOP as hopelessly captured by rabid extremists and make room in their own tent for the ideological centrists to jump ship.

Force GOP moderates to choke on their right flank until they cull it.

Where does it rank in recent sets for you? I’ve been holding off until next week but I might have to fire up a draft this weekend.