Lewis Miller
@lewgmiller.bsky.social
Politics lecturer in Dundee. Public Policy oriented - Teaching Scottish, British and EU Politics.
Pinned
Lewis Miller
@lewgmiller.bsky.social
· Nov 2
Respond with how long you think Badenoch will remain leader of the Conservatives so we can all look back at how bad we are at predicting things.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Continues to be wild to me how few Labour MPs have absorbed that the Starmer-Reeves strategy is, and always has been “Plan A: Somehow the Major economy returned Plan B: Die”.
The tax rises in this Budget’s are backloaded.
They're largely kick in in what is likely to be a pre-election year, somewhat implausibly.
They're largely kick in in what is likely to be a pre-election year, somewhat implausibly.
November 27, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Continues to be wild to me how few Labour MPs have absorbed that the Starmer-Reeves strategy is, and always has been “Plan A: Somehow the Major economy returned Plan B: Die”.
“Immigration to study in the UK is down 25% - the most common reason for non-EU arrivals”.
This is, of course, a crisis for UK higher education and the places supported by it.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
This is, of course, a crisis for UK higher education and the places supported by it.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
UK net migration drops sharply to 204,000 in year to June - live updates
The Office for National Statistics says the fall is driven by fewer non-EU nationals arriving for work and study, and a
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 10:52 AM
“Immigration to study in the UK is down 25% - the most common reason for non-EU arrivals”.
This is, of course, a crisis for UK higher education and the places supported by it.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
This is, of course, a crisis for UK higher education and the places supported by it.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
I think that far too much weight is being placed on 'can you rules-lawyer your way through an interview about how you've put people's taxes up' and 'what will people actually experience' - if you're raising my taxes (you are), just raise them by enough to get out of the v tight 27-9 spending rounds!
November 26, 2025 at 12:45 PM
I think that far too much weight is being placed on 'can you rules-lawyer your way through an interview about how you've put people's taxes up' and 'what will people actually experience' - if you're raising my taxes (you are), just raise them by enough to get out of the v tight 27-9 spending rounds!
So the government won’t touch Income Tax for higher earners because that would break their pledge, but they will freeze bands meaning lower earners also pay more income tax and it somehow protects the pledge?
November 26, 2025 at 12:52 PM
So the government won’t touch Income Tax for higher earners because that would break their pledge, but they will freeze bands meaning lower earners also pay more income tax and it somehow protects the pledge?
Reposted by Lewis Miller
The leaked OBR assessment states that Rachel Reeves decision to freeze income tax thresholds will raise £8.3 billion in 2029-30.
So income tax will be going up, contrary to the election pledge, but stealthily, rather than openly
So income tax will be going up, contrary to the election pledge, but stealthily, rather than openly
November 26, 2025 at 12:14 PM
The leaked OBR assessment states that Rachel Reeves decision to freeze income tax thresholds will raise £8.3 billion in 2029-30.
So income tax will be going up, contrary to the election pledge, but stealthily, rather than openly
So income tax will be going up, contrary to the election pledge, but stealthily, rather than openly
Reposted by Lewis Miller
As bad as your day might be, it could be worse, you could be the person who accidentally published the OBR's budget document a couple of hours early: obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
obr.uk
November 26, 2025 at 11:59 AM
As bad as your day might be, it could be worse, you could be the person who accidentally published the OBR's budget document a couple of hours early: obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Researching a bit of historic Budget trivia and TL;DR- it's Gladstone. It's always Gladstone.
The red box? Gladstone. The tradition the Chancellor can drink while speaking? Gladstone. Longest Budget speech? Gladstone. Most Budget speeches? Gladstone.
The red box? Gladstone. The tradition the Chancellor can drink while speaking? Gladstone. Longest Budget speech? Gladstone. Most Budget speeches? Gladstone.
November 25, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Researching a bit of historic Budget trivia and TL;DR- it's Gladstone. It's always Gladstone.
The red box? Gladstone. The tradition the Chancellor can drink while speaking? Gladstone. Longest Budget speech? Gladstone. Most Budget speeches? Gladstone.
The red box? Gladstone. The tradition the Chancellor can drink while speaking? Gladstone. Longest Budget speech? Gladstone. Most Budget speeches? Gladstone.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
As well as the moral case for lifting children out of poverty, there’s a powerful economic case for abolishing the two-child cap. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Abolishing the two-child benefit limit would be a great investment | British Politics and Policy at LSE
Abolishing the Two-Child Benefit limit and overall Benefit Cap is good policy not just for ethical reasons but because investment in children pays off.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 24, 2025 at 3:48 PM
As well as the moral case for lifting children out of poverty, there’s a powerful economic case for abolishing the two-child cap. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Wealth tax and looser fiscal rules won’t save the Budget | British Politics and Policy at LSE
The narrative on the left that a wealth tax and looser fiscal rules would solve the Chancellor's 2025 Budget headaches has got out of hand.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:05 PM
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Take a look for yourself: we've made an interactive map that lets you explore council tax and property value data across England and Wales: taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/25/c...
(sorry Scotland, Northern Ireland)
(sorry Scotland, Northern Ireland)
November 25, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Take a look for yourself: we've made an interactive map that lets you explore council tax and property value data across England and Wales: taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/25/c...
(sorry Scotland, Northern Ireland)
(sorry Scotland, Northern Ireland)
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Council tax is based on 1991 valuations. This map shows house price rises in the last 30 years (darker colour = more rise). It's been very unequally spread.
That means a Band H property in Cumbria is worth nothing like a Band H property in London.
That means a Band H property in Cumbria is worth nothing like a Band H property in London.
November 25, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Council tax is based on 1991 valuations. This map shows house price rises in the last 30 years (darker colour = more rise). It's been very unequally spread.
That means a Band H property in Cumbria is worth nothing like a Band H property in London.
That means a Band H property in Cumbria is worth nothing like a Band H property in London.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
The map on the left shades constituencies by % of top council tax band properties (Band H in England, Band H and I in Wales)
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
November 25, 2025 at 8:58 PM
The map on the left shades constituencies by % of top council tax band properties (Band H in England, Band H and I in Wales)
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Founders on LinkedIn still seem to be struggling with the difference between telling people about their humble beginnings and admitting to straight up committing fraud.
November 24, 2025 at 11:17 PM
Founders on LinkedIn still seem to be struggling with the difference between telling people about their humble beginnings and admitting to straight up committing fraud.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
We are moving inexorably to the end point of electoral chaos - five parties all tied on 19% in the polls, election to be decided by blindfolded chimps chucking coloured darts at a constituency map
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 25% (-2)
LAB: 19% (=)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
LDM: 15% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @yougov.co.uk, 23-24 Nov.
Changes w/ 16-17 Nov.
RFM: 25% (-2)
LAB: 19% (=)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
LDM: 15% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @yougov.co.uk, 23-24 Nov.
Changes w/ 16-17 Nov.
November 25, 2025 at 11:14 AM
We are moving inexorably to the end point of electoral chaos - five parties all tied on 19% in the polls, election to be decided by blindfolded chimps chucking coloured darts at a constituency map
Flashback to the Pasty Tax
November 25, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Flashback to the Pasty Tax
Reposted by Lewis Miller
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
Reposted by Lewis Miller
And FT are once again running their (excellent) seasonal campaign to raise financial literacy! Bravo FT.
www.ft.com/ft-seasonal-...
www.ft.com/ft-seasonal-...
FT Financial Literacy and Inclusion Campaign
The FT invites readers to join our campaign to promote financial literacy in the UK and around the world
www.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 4:20 PM
And FT are once again running their (excellent) seasonal campaign to raise financial literacy! Bravo FT.
www.ft.com/ft-seasonal-...
www.ft.com/ft-seasonal-...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
"Farage has already changed the UK (for the worse) more than any other living politician. What might the country look like after a period with him in office?"
Martin Wolf, today's FT
Martin Wolf, today's FT
November 24, 2025 at 7:31 AM
"Farage has already changed the UK (for the worse) more than any other living politician. What might the country look like after a period with him in office?"
Martin Wolf, today's FT
Martin Wolf, today's FT
Reposted by Lewis Miller
This chart (which applies even more to social media than it did to TV) lives in my head rent free.
Social media enveloping traditional media means everything and everyone is now competing in the entertainment market. Boring stuff like policy that affects millions of lives doesn’t stand a chance.
Social media enveloping traditional media means everything and everyone is now competing in the entertainment market. Boring stuff like policy that affects millions of lives doesn’t stand a chance.
November 23, 2025 at 8:24 PM
This chart (which applies even more to social media than it did to TV) lives in my head rent free.
Social media enveloping traditional media means everything and everyone is now competing in the entertainment market. Boring stuff like policy that affects millions of lives doesn’t stand a chance.
Social media enveloping traditional media means everything and everyone is now competing in the entertainment market. Boring stuff like policy that affects millions of lives doesn’t stand a chance.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
You're not asking trans people. You're asking all people. This affects us all. Anyone could be barred from services based on appearance. Since, surprisingly we all have a fecking appearance
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Trans people could be barred from services based on appearance
The new code of practice on access to single-sex services cannot gain legal force until it gets sign-off from ministers.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 21, 2025 at 1:15 AM
You're not asking trans people. You're asking all people. This affects us all. Anyone could be barred from services based on appearance. Since, surprisingly we all have a fecking appearance
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
I have a wonderful fiancee from abroad who has done nothing but contribute to this country and fantastic friends and colleagues who have paid tax and made their lives here. I am absolutely disgusted by this. The damage to my view of Labour is irreparable. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Some migrants to face 20-year wait for settled status
Shabana Mahmood says becoming part of the UK is
www.bbc.co.uk
November 20, 2025 at 2:21 PM
I have a wonderful fiancee from abroad who has done nothing but contribute to this country and fantastic friends and colleagues who have paid tax and made their lives here. I am absolutely disgusted by this. The damage to my view of Labour is irreparable. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Keir Starmer's net favourability rating falls to its lowest level to date (-54, 16-17 November), within the margin of error of Jeremy Corbyn (-55) and Boris Johnson's (-53) lowest ratings
Favourable: 19% (-2 from 13-14 Oct)
Unfavourable: 73% (+1)
Net: -54 (-3)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Favourable: 19% (-2 from 13-14 Oct)
Unfavourable: 73% (+1)
Net: -54 (-3)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
November 20, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Keir Starmer's net favourability rating falls to its lowest level to date (-54, 16-17 November), within the margin of error of Jeremy Corbyn (-55) and Boris Johnson's (-53) lowest ratings
Favourable: 19% (-2 from 13-14 Oct)
Unfavourable: 73% (+1)
Net: -54 (-3)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Favourable: 19% (-2 from 13-14 Oct)
Unfavourable: 73% (+1)
Net: -54 (-3)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Holyrood 2026 doesn't look like the hardest race to call. The fundamentals are an SNP clean sweep - most popular party, most popular leader, lead on nearly all key issues, etc. But, like GE2019+GE2024, it is quite relative, with underlying weaknesses and benefitting from a divided opposition.
🧵 / With less than six months until the Scottish Parliament election, the SNP are the party Scots are most likely to consider voting for
SNP: 37% would consider
Greens: 27%
Lib Dems: 26%
Labour: 23%
Reform UK: 21%
Conservatives: 15%
'Your Party': 15%
Alba: 8%
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
SNP: 37% would consider
Greens: 27%
Lib Dems: 26%
Labour: 23%
Reform UK: 21%
Conservatives: 15%
'Your Party': 15%
Alba: 8%
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
November 20, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Holyrood 2026 doesn't look like the hardest race to call. The fundamentals are an SNP clean sweep - most popular party, most popular leader, lead on nearly all key issues, etc. But, like GE2019+GE2024, it is quite relative, with underlying weaknesses and benefitting from a divided opposition.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
A thing that I remember vividly from GE2015 is when you'd knock on the door of a never-gonna-be-hit-by-the-mansion-tax house that was never going to be hit by a mansion tax who really thought their house's inflated price meant it might be close to it. Turns out that has spread to officials!
I sometimes feel like I am going mad.
Owning a £1.5m home is not normal in London or the South East of England.
Owning a £1.5m home is not normal in London or the South East of England.
November 20, 2025 at 10:27 AM
A thing that I remember vividly from GE2015 is when you'd knock on the door of a never-gonna-be-hit-by-the-mansion-tax house that was never going to be hit by a mansion tax who really thought their house's inflated price meant it might be close to it. Turns out that has spread to officials!
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Imagine believing that this should be the policy of a Labour government
The Labour government does not want to rule out deporting somebody once here as a refugee 16-19 years with a British-born 15 year old child
November 19, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Imagine believing that this should be the policy of a Labour government