Dan Neidle
@danneidle.bsky.social
Founder of Tax Policy Associates Ltd. Tax realist. @danneidle on Twitter
The good news - the OBR says the Budget didn't hurt growth. The bad news - the OBR says the Budget didn't improve growth:
December 1, 2025 at 12:03 PM
The good news - the OBR says the Budget didn't hurt growth. The bad news - the OBR says the Budget didn't improve growth:
Something that's been under-reported:
Property tax is devolved. As of right now, there's no mansion tax happening in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland.
Probably there will be, with each creating their own tax, potentially with different bands and rates...
Property tax is devolved. As of right now, there's no mansion tax happening in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland.
Probably there will be, with each creating their own tax, potentially with different bands and rates...
November 30, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Something that's been under-reported:
Property tax is devolved. As of right now, there's no mansion tax happening in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland.
Probably there will be, with each creating their own tax, potentially with different bands and rates...
Property tax is devolved. As of right now, there's no mansion tax happening in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland.
Probably there will be, with each creating their own tax, potentially with different bands and rates...
I'm hoping to unite Left and Right - they'll all hate my piece in today's Sunday Times, saying that successive Budgets have overtaxed the highest-earning 20%, and under-taxed both the median earner and the richest 0.1%.https://buff.ly/BqRFpJr
November 30, 2025 at 9:34 AM
I'm hoping to unite Left and Right - they'll all hate my piece in today's Sunday Times, saying that successive Budgets have overtaxed the highest-earning 20%, and under-taxed both the median earner and the richest 0.1%.https://buff.ly/BqRFpJr
I've now heard from several people who left the UK because of exit tax rumours, and others who plan to leave because they think it will happen next time.
The exit tax leaks were really unfortunate. It would be a very good idea for Ms Reeves to clearly rule out any future exit tax.
The exit tax leaks were really unfortunate. It would be a very good idea for Ms Reeves to clearly rule out any future exit tax.
November 29, 2025 at 4:03 PM
I've now heard from several people who left the UK because of exit tax rumours, and others who plan to leave because they think it will happen next time.
The exit tax leaks were really unfortunate. It would be a very good idea for Ms Reeves to clearly rule out any future exit tax.
The exit tax leaks were really unfortunate. It would be a very good idea for Ms Reeves to clearly rule out any future exit tax.
Discussed the Budget yesterday on the FT's Money Clinic podcast, with Claer Barrett, Stuart Kirk and Tej Parikh...
November 29, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Discussed the Budget yesterday on the FT's Money Clinic podcast, with Claer Barrett, Stuart Kirk and Tej Parikh...
We’ve mapped the mansion tax.
You can see who's paying - which constituency, which postcode - and how many "mansions" are near you.
Full interactive map here 👇
You can see who's paying - which constituency, which postcode - and how many "mansions" are near you.
Full interactive map here 👇
November 28, 2025 at 9:34 AM
We’ve mapped the mansion tax.
You can see who's paying - which constituency, which postcode - and how many "mansions" are near you.
Full interactive map here 👇
You can see who's paying - which constituency, which postcode - and how many "mansions" are near you.
Full interactive map here 👇
It's time to be nice about the Budget.
The council tax surcharge is a good policy. Very compromised/imperfect, but still good policy.
This is why:
The council tax surcharge is a good policy. Very compromised/imperfect, but still good policy.
This is why:
November 27, 2025 at 4:59 PM
It's time to be nice about the Budget.
The council tax surcharge is a good policy. Very compromised/imperfect, but still good policy.
This is why:
The council tax surcharge is a good policy. Very compromised/imperfect, but still good policy.
This is why:
Me being grumpy on Peston about the lack of pro-growth tax reform in the Budget: youtu.be/ZKx_qF3YpoU?...
November 27, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Me being grumpy on Peston about the lack of pro-growth tax reform in the Budget: youtu.be/ZKx_qF3YpoU?...
I'm still really angry about all the pre-Budget leaking.
Hugely damaging to the UK. The exit tax rumours in particular. The uncertainty didn't end with the Budget - I expect an ongoing impact on business confidence and domestic/foreign investment.
Indefensible.
Hugely damaging to the UK. The exit tax rumours in particular. The uncertainty didn't end with the Budget - I expect an ongoing impact on business confidence and domestic/foreign investment.
Indefensible.
November 27, 2025 at 10:52 AM
I'm still really angry about all the pre-Budget leaking.
Hugely damaging to the UK. The exit tax rumours in particular. The uncertainty didn't end with the Budget - I expect an ongoing impact on business confidence and domestic/foreign investment.
Indefensible.
Hugely damaging to the UK. The exit tax rumours in particular. The uncertainty didn't end with the Budget - I expect an ongoing impact on business confidence and domestic/foreign investment.
Indefensible.
A solicitor, Andrew Milne has been bullying leaseholders across Sheffield into paying him extraordinary sums, with no legal basis.
Why hasn't the SRA stopped him? Because he's conducted an extraordinary campaign against the SRA. 180 complaints. Two judicial reviews.
More here: buff.ly/LmLVegM
Why hasn't the SRA stopped him? Because he's conducted an extraordinary campaign against the SRA. 180 complaints. Two judicial reviews.
More here: buff.ly/LmLVegM
SRA urged to take action as we reveal solicitor has ‘purposely frustrated’ investigation
Solicitor Andrew Jonathan Milne delayed an official investigation into his alleged professional misconduct by overwhelming the regulator with complaints and threatening them with two injunctions se…
buff.ly
November 27, 2025 at 9:51 AM
A solicitor, Andrew Milne has been bullying leaseholders across Sheffield into paying him extraordinary sums, with no legal basis.
Why hasn't the SRA stopped him? Because he's conducted an extraordinary campaign against the SRA. 180 complaints. Two judicial reviews.
More here: buff.ly/LmLVegM
Why hasn't the SRA stopped him? Because he's conducted an extraordinary campaign against the SRA. 180 complaints. Two judicial reviews.
More here: buff.ly/LmLVegM
Weird that the Budget is so "back-loaded", with very few tax rises next year, and then massive effects from the threshold freeze in 2030
Why?
Why?
November 27, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Weird that the Budget is so "back-loaded", with very few tax rises next year, and then massive effects from the threshold freeze in 2030
Why?
Why?
Bad news for anyone thinking of responding to the consultation on the new electric vehicle duty.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
November 26, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Bad news for anyone thinking of responding to the consultation on the new electric vehicle duty.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
Our tax calculator is now updated for the Budget: taxpolicy.org.uk/wp-content/a...
You'll see no change in the tax you pay in 2026/27 unless you're a landlord or receive interest/dividend income.
You'll see no change in the tax you pay in 2026/27 unless you're a landlord or receive interest/dividend income.
November 26, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Our tax calculator is now updated for the Budget: taxpolicy.org.uk/wp-content/a...
You'll see no change in the tax you pay in 2026/27 unless you're a landlord or receive interest/dividend income.
You'll see no change in the tax you pay in 2026/27 unless you're a landlord or receive interest/dividend income.
There's a lot in this chart. Would love to see the equivalent for e.g. France or Denmark.
I expect we'd see: less tax on median earner. More tax on top decile. More welfare and benefit-in-kind at the higher deciles.
I expect we'd see: less tax on median earner. More tax on top decile. More welfare and benefit-in-kind at the higher deciles.
November 26, 2025 at 6:13 PM
There's a lot in this chart. Would love to see the equivalent for e.g. France or Denmark.
I expect we'd see: less tax on median earner. More tax on top decile. More welfare and benefit-in-kind at the higher deciles.
I expect we'd see: less tax on median earner. More tax on top decile. More welfare and benefit-in-kind at the higher deciles.
The good, the bad and the ugly of the Budget:
The bad: the Budget contained no significant tax reforms, and almost nothing in the way of pro-growth measures. The capital allowance change will reduce business investment - it's positively anti-growth.
The bad: the Budget contained no significant tax reforms, and almost nothing in the way of pro-growth measures. The capital allowance change will reduce business investment - it's positively anti-growth.
November 26, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The good, the bad and the ugly of the Budget:
The bad: the Budget contained no significant tax reforms, and almost nothing in the way of pro-growth measures. The capital allowance change will reduce business investment - it's positively anti-growth.
The bad: the Budget contained no significant tax reforms, and almost nothing in the way of pro-growth measures. The capital allowance change will reduce business investment - it's positively anti-growth.
How much will the council tax surcharge reduce the price of £5m houses?
Probably somewhere between £150k and £375k.
So if you own a £5m house, you just lost money.
If you were planning to buy one, you haven't (because you'll pay the tax, but save on the purchase)
Probably somewhere between £150k and £375k.
So if you own a £5m house, you just lost money.
If you were planning to buy one, you haven't (because you'll pay the tax, but save on the purchase)
November 26, 2025 at 2:15 PM
How much will the council tax surcharge reduce the price of £5m houses?
Probably somewhere between £150k and £375k.
So if you own a £5m house, you just lost money.
If you were planning to buy one, you haven't (because you'll pay the tax, but save on the purchase)
Probably somewhere between £150k and £375k.
So if you own a £5m house, you just lost money.
If you were planning to buy one, you haven't (because you'll pay the tax, but save on the purchase)
Lots of updates to our Budget analysis - all at taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/26/t...
The Budget - what it says
Tax Policy Associates’ summary of the measures in the Budget - what they are, what they mean, and their likely long-term consequences
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Lots of updates to our Budget analysis - all at taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/26/t...
All the Budget papers are now out: buff.ly/RvwvmnB
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 1:47 PM
All the Budget papers are now out: buff.ly/RvwvmnB
Big news, income tax is being charged this year.
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
November 26, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Big news, income tax is being charged this year.
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
Me, seeing the OBR Budget report half an hour before the Budget:
November 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Me, seeing the OBR Budget report half an hour before the Budget:
Live-updating our Budget report as the Chancellor speaks: buff.ly/1dW05S4
The Budget - what it says
Tax Policy Associates’ summary of the measures in the Budget - what they are, what they mean, and their likely long-term consequences
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Live-updating our Budget report as the Chancellor speaks: buff.ly/1dW05S4
It's all about fiscal creep.
November 26, 2025 at 1:29 PM
It's all about fiscal creep.
The Chancellor hasn't really started, but we know almost everything thanks to the OBR leak (spotted by Beth Rigby)
Some quick thoughts: buff.ly/1dW05S4
Some quick thoughts: buff.ly/1dW05S4
The Budget - what it says
Tax Policy Associates’ summary of the measures in the Budget - what they are, what they mean, and their likely long-term consequences
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 12:40 PM
The Chancellor hasn't really started, but we know almost everything thanks to the OBR leak (spotted by Beth Rigby)
Some quick thoughts: buff.ly/1dW05S4
Some quick thoughts: buff.ly/1dW05S4
Beth Rigby spotted that the OBR accidentally published their Budget papers too soon. It's down now, but I've archived a copy: buff.ly/SfFAiCu
buff.ly
November 26, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Beth Rigby spotted that the OBR accidentally published their Budget papers too soon. It's down now, but I've archived a copy: buff.ly/SfFAiCu
Most of the attention tomorrow will be on the big tax-raising measures. But there are an unusual number of important other items, which appear technical, but will impact everyone from billionaire non-doms to the poorest people in the country.
We'll be watching for these six:
We'll be watching for these six:
November 26, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Most of the attention tomorrow will be on the big tax-raising measures. But there are an unusual number of important other items, which appear technical, but will impact everyone from billionaire non-doms to the poorest people in the country.
We'll be watching for these six:
We'll be watching for these six: