Lewis Miller
@lewgmiller.bsky.social
Politics lecturer in Dundee. Public Policy oriented - Teaching Scottish, British and EU Politics.
Pinned
Lewis Miller
@lewgmiller.bsky.social
· Nov 2
Respond with how long you think Badenoch will remain leader of the Conservatives so we can all look back at how bad we are at predicting things.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
New post just out:
Six lessons from the 2024 election.
And what they mean for the next one.
Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Six lessons from the 2024 election.
And what they mean for the next one.
Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Six lessons from the 2024 election
And what they mean for the next one
samf.substack.com
December 3, 2025 at 8:40 AM
New post just out:
Six lessons from the 2024 election.
And what they mean for the next one.
Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Six lessons from the 2024 election.
And what they mean for the next one.
Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Every sympathy for University of Essex (and pressures facing them) but this is very bad news for Southend.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Essex university to cut 400 jobs as overseas student numbers plummet
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Essex university to cut 400 jobs as overseas student numbers plummet
Essex university to cut 400 jobs as overseas student numbers plummet
Roles to be lost are part of wave of redundancy programmes across UK’s higher education sector
giftarticle.ft.com
December 3, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Every sympathy for University of Essex (and pressures facing them) but this is very bad news for Southend.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Essex university to cut 400 jobs as overseas student numbers plummet
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Essex university to cut 400 jobs as overseas student numbers plummet
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Obviously this is impossible because Alan Moore looks like he's genetically a wizard, it's simply impossible to imagine what he would look like as a schoolboy oh there he is.
Spot Alan Moore in his 6th form Northampton Grammar School photo, taken two days before he was expelled
December 2, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Obviously this is impossible because Alan Moore looks like he's genetically a wizard, it's simply impossible to imagine what he would look like as a schoolboy oh there he is.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Interesting snippet from the OBR report. Alcohol duties revenue forecast notched down by an annual £1.7bn.
December 2, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Interesting snippet from the OBR report. Alcohol duties revenue forecast notched down by an annual £1.7bn.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
This, from the FT, is almost the perfect encapsulation of what is so maddening about this government. ‘If a convenient thing had happened we wouldn’t have had to agree to do something which we actually think is stupid.’
Does he also believe in the Tooth Fairy? That, and other questions raised by this excellent piece: www.ft.com/content/cc83...
December 2, 2025 at 11:19 AM
This, from the FT, is almost the perfect encapsulation of what is so maddening about this government. ‘If a convenient thing had happened we wouldn’t have had to agree to do something which we actually think is stupid.’
Reposted by Lewis Miller
The Prime Minister and Home Secretary want to drive net migration lower than net 205k. The Chancellor could reduce borrowing £7.4 billion/year in 2029/30 using the OBR projection that it will return to net 340k later in the parliament
obr.uk/box/the-impa...
obr.uk/box/the-impa...
The impact of migration on the fiscal forecast - Office for Budget Responsibility
Following the upwards revision to our migration forecast, this box explored the implications of higher migration on our central forecasts for tax revenues, spending and borrowing. We also drew on alte...
obr.uk
December 1, 2025 at 10:33 AM
The Prime Minister and Home Secretary want to drive net migration lower than net 205k. The Chancellor could reduce borrowing £7.4 billion/year in 2029/30 using the OBR projection that it will return to net 340k later in the parliament
obr.uk/box/the-impa...
obr.uk/box/the-impa...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Good news for election nerds and relatives of election nerds - our publishers have confirmed "The British General Election of 2024" will be published on 3rd December. To celebrate its imminent arrival, I am starting a "BGE 2024 advent calendar" thread - first door opens in next post
Looking forward to a much briefed bumper hamper of politics? No, not the Budget, The British General Election of 2024! We had a wonderful all star launch event in London last night, with representatives of all five Britain-wide parties, and now I have a special launch gift for you...read on! 1/?
December 1, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Good news for election nerds and relatives of election nerds - our publishers have confirmed "The British General Election of 2024" will be published on 3rd December. To celebrate its imminent arrival, I am starting a "BGE 2024 advent calendar" thread - first door opens in next post
Begging Disney to stop requiring me to watch some other series with characters I don’t care for to understand whats going on in the series I am watching. Also, if you’re going to do this at least start the series with “this doesn’t make sense unless you watched X” instead of me having to google it.
November 29, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Begging Disney to stop requiring me to watch some other series with characters I don’t care for to understand whats going on in the series I am watching. Also, if you’re going to do this at least start the series with “this doesn’t make sense unless you watched X” instead of me having to google it.
The *whole* economy?!?
Zarah Sultana: "We need a wealth tax, but we also need to nationalise the entire economy."
November 28, 2025 at 11:21 PM
The *whole* economy?!?
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Budget 2025: This is how you lose the world iandunt.substack.com/p/budget-202...
November 28, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Budget 2025: This is how you lose the world iandunt.substack.com/p/budget-202...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
I say this as a PhD student who is also in work: there is little reason to put the effort in to pursue an academic career, now. The job market was already extremely competitive, for very low pay vs. comparable private sector jobs.
The deteriorating state of HE is the final nail in that coffin.
The deteriorating state of HE is the final nail in that coffin.
'David Maguire and Alex Bols, vice-chancellor and chief of staff respectively at the University of East Anglia, updated their prediction made last autumn that 10,000 jobs could be lost in 2024-25, claiming this same amount could in fact be lost every year going forward.' 1/3
UK universities ‘could cut 10,000 jobs every year’
Academics claim changes made to higher education system a decade ago have divided sector into ‘winners and losers’, with government-imposed limits on income exacerbating financial challenges
www.timeshighereducation.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:05 AM
I say this as a PhD student who is also in work: there is little reason to put the effort in to pursue an academic career, now. The job market was already extremely competitive, for very low pay vs. comparable private sector jobs.
The deteriorating state of HE is the final nail in that coffin.
The deteriorating state of HE is the final nail in that coffin.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Another one from today’s @resolutionfoundation.org report.
If anyone is complaining about the mansion tax, show them this.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
If anyone is complaining about the mansion tax, show them this.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
November 27, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Another one from today’s @resolutionfoundation.org report.
If anyone is complaining about the mansion tax, show them this.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
If anyone is complaining about the mansion tax, show them this.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Continues to be wild to me how few Labour MPs have absorbed that the Starmer-Reeves strategy is, and always has been “Plan A: Somehow the Major economy returned Plan B: Die”.
The tax rises in this Budget’s are backloaded.
They're largely kick in in what is likely to be a pre-election year, somewhat implausibly.
They're largely kick in in what is likely to be a pre-election year, somewhat implausibly.
November 27, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Continues to be wild to me how few Labour MPs have absorbed that the Starmer-Reeves strategy is, and always has been “Plan A: Somehow the Major economy returned Plan B: Die”.
“Immigration to study in the UK is down 25% - the most common reason for non-EU arrivals”.
This is, of course, a crisis for UK higher education and the places supported by it.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
This is, of course, a crisis for UK higher education and the places supported by it.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
UK net migration drops sharply to 204,000 in year to June - live updates
The Office for National Statistics says the fall is driven by fewer non-EU nationals arriving for work and study, and a
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 10:52 AM
“Immigration to study in the UK is down 25% - the most common reason for non-EU arrivals”.
This is, of course, a crisis for UK higher education and the places supported by it.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
This is, of course, a crisis for UK higher education and the places supported by it.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
I think that far too much weight is being placed on 'can you rules-lawyer your way through an interview about how you've put people's taxes up' and 'what will people actually experience' - if you're raising my taxes (you are), just raise them by enough to get out of the v tight 27-9 spending rounds!
November 26, 2025 at 12:45 PM
I think that far too much weight is being placed on 'can you rules-lawyer your way through an interview about how you've put people's taxes up' and 'what will people actually experience' - if you're raising my taxes (you are), just raise them by enough to get out of the v tight 27-9 spending rounds!
So the government won’t touch Income Tax for higher earners because that would break their pledge, but they will freeze bands meaning lower earners also pay more income tax and it somehow protects the pledge?
November 26, 2025 at 12:52 PM
So the government won’t touch Income Tax for higher earners because that would break their pledge, but they will freeze bands meaning lower earners also pay more income tax and it somehow protects the pledge?
Reposted by Lewis Miller
The leaked OBR assessment states that Rachel Reeves decision to freeze income tax thresholds will raise £8.3 billion in 2029-30.
So income tax will be going up, contrary to the election pledge, but stealthily, rather than openly
So income tax will be going up, contrary to the election pledge, but stealthily, rather than openly
November 26, 2025 at 12:14 PM
The leaked OBR assessment states that Rachel Reeves decision to freeze income tax thresholds will raise £8.3 billion in 2029-30.
So income tax will be going up, contrary to the election pledge, but stealthily, rather than openly
So income tax will be going up, contrary to the election pledge, but stealthily, rather than openly
Reposted by Lewis Miller
As bad as your day might be, it could be worse, you could be the person who accidentally published the OBR's budget document a couple of hours early: obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
obr.uk
November 26, 2025 at 11:59 AM
As bad as your day might be, it could be worse, you could be the person who accidentally published the OBR's budget document a couple of hours early: obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Researching a bit of historic Budget trivia and TL;DR- it's Gladstone. It's always Gladstone.
The red box? Gladstone. The tradition the Chancellor can drink while speaking? Gladstone. Longest Budget speech? Gladstone. Most Budget speeches? Gladstone.
The red box? Gladstone. The tradition the Chancellor can drink while speaking? Gladstone. Longest Budget speech? Gladstone. Most Budget speeches? Gladstone.
November 25, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Researching a bit of historic Budget trivia and TL;DR- it's Gladstone. It's always Gladstone.
The red box? Gladstone. The tradition the Chancellor can drink while speaking? Gladstone. Longest Budget speech? Gladstone. Most Budget speeches? Gladstone.
The red box? Gladstone. The tradition the Chancellor can drink while speaking? Gladstone. Longest Budget speech? Gladstone. Most Budget speeches? Gladstone.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
As well as the moral case for lifting children out of poverty, there’s a powerful economic case for abolishing the two-child cap. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Abolishing the two-child benefit limit would be a great investment | British Politics and Policy at LSE
Abolishing the Two-Child Benefit limit and overall Benefit Cap is good policy not just for ethical reasons but because investment in children pays off.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 24, 2025 at 3:48 PM
As well as the moral case for lifting children out of poverty, there’s a powerful economic case for abolishing the two-child cap. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Wealth tax and looser fiscal rules won’t save the Budget | British Politics and Policy at LSE
The narrative on the left that a wealth tax and looser fiscal rules would solve the Chancellor's 2025 Budget headaches has got out of hand.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:05 PM
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Take a look for yourself: we've made an interactive map that lets you explore council tax and property value data across England and Wales: taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/25/c...
(sorry Scotland, Northern Ireland)
(sorry Scotland, Northern Ireland)
November 25, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Take a look for yourself: we've made an interactive map that lets you explore council tax and property value data across England and Wales: taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/25/c...
(sorry Scotland, Northern Ireland)
(sorry Scotland, Northern Ireland)
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Council tax is based on 1991 valuations. This map shows house price rises in the last 30 years (darker colour = more rise). It's been very unequally spread.
That means a Band H property in Cumbria is worth nothing like a Band H property in London.
That means a Band H property in Cumbria is worth nothing like a Band H property in London.
November 25, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Council tax is based on 1991 valuations. This map shows house price rises in the last 30 years (darker colour = more rise). It's been very unequally spread.
That means a Band H property in Cumbria is worth nothing like a Band H property in London.
That means a Band H property in Cumbria is worth nothing like a Band H property in London.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
The map on the left shades constituencies by % of top council tax band properties (Band H in England, Band H and I in Wales)
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
November 25, 2025 at 8:58 PM
The map on the left shades constituencies by % of top council tax band properties (Band H in England, Band H and I in Wales)
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
The map on the right shades by median house prices.
Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.
Reposted by Lewis Miller
Founders on LinkedIn still seem to be struggling with the difference between telling people about their humble beginnings and admitting to straight up committing fraud.
November 24, 2025 at 11:17 PM
Founders on LinkedIn still seem to be struggling with the difference between telling people about their humble beginnings and admitting to straight up committing fraud.