Lee Drutman
@leedrutman.bsky.social
Political scientist. Believer in democracy, whatever the hell that is.
- Substack: https://leedrutman.substack.com
- Podcast: http://politicsinquestion.com
- Senior Fellow: New America
- Co-Founder: https://www.fixourhouse.org
- Substack: https://leedrutman.substack.com
- Podcast: http://politicsinquestion.com
- Senior Fellow: New America
- Co-Founder: https://www.fixourhouse.org
Will the Trump-Epstein connection ever break through to MAGA?
There is some evidence that at 30-40% "incongruent information", people turn against their candidates.
But below that, doubling-down is strong. Cognitive dissonance is hard for people to handle.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
There is some evidence that at 30-40% "incongruent information", people turn against their candidates.
But below that, doubling-down is strong. Cognitive dissonance is hard for people to handle.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
November 13, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Will the Trump-Epstein connection ever break through to MAGA?
There is some evidence that at 30-40% "incongruent information", people turn against their candidates.
But below that, doubling-down is strong. Cognitive dissonance is hard for people to handle.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
There is some evidence that at 30-40% "incongruent information", people turn against their candidates.
But below that, doubling-down is strong. Cognitive dissonance is hard for people to handle.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
"Collapsing democracies follow on collapsing political parties."
I think about this line from @kimlanelaw.bsky.social a lot.
oxcon.ouplaw.com/display/10.1...
I think about this line from @kimlanelaw.bsky.social a lot.
oxcon.ouplaw.com/display/10.1...
November 13, 2025 at 12:58 PM
"Collapsing democracies follow on collapsing political parties."
I think about this line from @kimlanelaw.bsky.social a lot.
oxcon.ouplaw.com/display/10.1...
I think about this line from @kimlanelaw.bsky.social a lot.
oxcon.ouplaw.com/display/10.1...
Reposted by Lee Drutman
Episode 2 of This Old Democracy: @msifry.bsky.social talks with political scientist @leedrutman.bsky.social of @newamerica.org about breaking the two-party doom loop and why the U.S. needs a multi-party democracy. @politicalreform.newamerica.org
🎧 Listen: centerforballotfreedom.org/this-old-dem...
🎧 Listen: centerforballotfreedom.org/this-old-dem...
November 12, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Episode 2 of This Old Democracy: @msifry.bsky.social talks with political scientist @leedrutman.bsky.social of @newamerica.org about breaking the two-party doom loop and why the U.S. needs a multi-party democracy. @politicalreform.newamerica.org
🎧 Listen: centerforballotfreedom.org/this-old-dem...
🎧 Listen: centerforballotfreedom.org/this-old-dem...
Reposted by Lee Drutman
Fusion voting hits the sweet spot of impact + feasibility. It lets people vote their values without “wasting” their votes—opening space for new political identities, real dissenting power, and even a revitalized center in our civic life. @leedrutman.bsky.social @newamerica.org
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Fusion voting hits the sweet spot of impact + feasibility. It lets people vote their values without “wasting” their votes—opening space for new political identities, real dissenting power, and even a revitalized center in our civic life. @leedrutman.bsky.social @newamerica.org
Google Trends shows seven states where searches for "SNAP benefits" have outpaced searches for "Taylor Swift" over the last 30 days.
November 11, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Google Trends shows seven states where searches for "SNAP benefits" have outpaced searches for "Taylor Swift" over the last 30 days.
Exactly
are you subskeeting Mamdani, or Trump?
November 10, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Exactly
Funny/tragic how much of what we consider to be "winning" on the politics is actually losing on the policy.
The incentives are weird. It's better to have an "issue" than a solution.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
The incentives are weird. It's better to have an "issue" than a solution.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
November 10, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Funny/tragic how much of what we consider to be "winning" on the politics is actually losing on the policy.
The incentives are weird. It's better to have an "issue" than a solution.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
The incentives are weird. It's better to have an "issue" than a solution.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
Affordability is the perfect opposition message
Until you win, and try to wrangle global supply chains into submission.
Until you win, and try to wrangle global supply chains into submission.
November 10, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Affordability is the perfect opposition message
Until you win, and try to wrangle global supply chains into submission.
Until you win, and try to wrangle global supply chains into submission.
Reposted by Lee Drutman
Important piece by @leedrutman.bsky.social on Jared Golden's decision not to run again and how it signals the need for systemic reforms to address the two party "doom loop."
November 7, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Important piece by @leedrutman.bsky.social on Jared Golden's decision not to run again and how it signals the need for systemic reforms to address the two party "doom loop."
Reposted by Lee Drutman
ryan is right. people HATE hearing this. but it is just a matter of simple incentives. if you want a more representative legislature — and if you want a legislature more resistant to corruption — then you need to jack up the salaries. serving as mayor of NYC should net you a cool 500K *at least*
people hate hearing this but it's 100% true, creating a huge pay gap between political leaders, their staffs, and other elites is a recipe for corruption. of course the flip side of that is taxes on the rich should be jacked way the hell up
The Mayor of New York only makes $260k. I bet there are police that make more than that in NY with overtime.
We need to pay elected leaders more money and stop pretending it's some sort of calling. They're managing hundreds of billions of dollars in investments and millions of people's lives.
We need to pay elected leaders more money and stop pretending it's some sort of calling. They're managing hundreds of billions of dollars in investments and millions of people's lives.
November 7, 2025 at 3:42 PM
ryan is right. people HATE hearing this. but it is just a matter of simple incentives. if you want a more representative legislature — and if you want a legislature more resistant to corruption — then you need to jack up the salaries. serving as mayor of NYC should net you a cool 500K *at least*
Proportional representation is popular!
48% yes, 19% no, 32% don't know for proportional representation. That's with very little public campaign for PR so far.
Tracks similar results we found a couple of years ago polling various reforms in Wyoming. It's not some wonky thing only nerds get. The concept is intuitive and naturally popular.
Tracks similar results we found a couple of years ago polling various reforms in Wyoming. It's not some wonky thing only nerds get. The concept is intuitive and naturally popular.
Wow! That's a lot higher support level than I expected. And that 32%"don't know" means there's a high ceiling
November 7, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Proportional representation is popular!
Reposted by Lee Drutman
Reposted by Lee Drutman
"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated"
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:39 PM
"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated"
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
"Golden got it. Our electoral rules are obsolete. He understood why representatives who don’t fit easily into either party are so rare: the electoral system works against them."
leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...
Politics Keeps Driving Out the People Who Want to Reform It
Jared Golden is the latest problem-solving politician to decide Congress isn’t worth the cost. And so the doom loop takes another turn.
leedrutman.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:38 PM
"Golden got it. Our electoral rules are obsolete. He understood why representatives who don’t fit easily into either party are so rare: the electoral system works against them."
leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...
The Golden hour is fading into the sunset.
open.substack.com/pub/leedrutm...
open.substack.com/pub/leedrutm...
Politics Keeps Driving Out the People Who Want to Reform It
Jared Golden is the latest problem-solving politician to decide Congress isn’t worth the cost. And so the doom loop takes another turn.
open.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:28 PM
The Golden hour is fading into the sunset.
open.substack.com/pub/leedrutm...
open.substack.com/pub/leedrutm...
Elon Musk -- useful idiot?
centerforballotfreedom.substack.com/p/elon-v-han...
centerforballotfreedom.substack.com/p/elon-v-han...
Elon v. Hannah: You Make The Call
The text messages started mid-morning on Election Day.
centerforballotfreedom.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Elon Musk -- useful idiot?
centerforballotfreedom.substack.com/p/elon-v-han...
centerforballotfreedom.substack.com/p/elon-v-han...
"But if every American were as upset about this as I am, there’s an even better answer: multimember districts with proportional representation."
www.theargumentmag.com/p/newsom-got...
www.theargumentmag.com/p/newsom-got...
Newsom got his gerrymander. Now what?
Winning is more than just fighting
www.theargumentmag.com
November 5, 2025 at 8:48 PM
"But if every American were as upset about this as I am, there’s an even better answer: multimember districts with proportional representation."
www.theargumentmag.com/p/newsom-got...
www.theargumentmag.com/p/newsom-got...
Speaker Gaslight.
Johnson's claim that this Congress has been "arguably the most productive of all time" is such bullshit.
Even setting aside the longest government shutdown in U.S. history (!), this Congress has been historically unproductive*, and the main big bill it passed included very harmful provisions.
Even setting aside the longest government shutdown in U.S. history (!), this Congress has been historically unproductive*, and the main big bill it passed included very harmful provisions.
Johnson: When we go into the midterms, we’re very bullish on the outcome. We have an extraordinary record to run on. The first nine months of this Congress and this administration, arguably the most productive of all time.
November 5, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Speaker Gaslight.
Reposted by Lee Drutman
Musk has been throwing a fit complaining about Mamdani being on the ballot twice because New York allows fusion, but fusion being legal in more states would have made his abortive "America Party" idea much more feasible.
November 5, 2025 at 3:26 AM
Musk has been throwing a fit complaining about Mamdani being on the ballot twice because New York allows fusion, but fusion being legal in more states would have made his abortive "America Party" idea much more feasible.
So, a predictable pattern is that off-year elections move against the party in the White House.
I'm eager to see an analysis of how the 2025 move against the party in the White House compares to 2021, 2017, 2013, 2009...
I'm eager to see an analysis of how the 2025 move against the party in the White House compares to 2021, 2017, 2013, 2009...
November 5, 2025 at 12:14 PM
So, a predictable pattern is that off-year elections move against the party in the White House.
I'm eager to see an analysis of how the 2025 move against the party in the White House compares to 2021, 2017, 2013, 2009...
I'm eager to see an analysis of how the 2025 move against the party in the White House compares to 2021, 2017, 2013, 2009...
Takeaway: smile more
November 5, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Takeaway: smile more
The political thermostat is still in effect.
It's a Sine Wave!
It's a Sine Wave!
November 5, 2025 at 1:32 AM
The political thermostat is still in effect.
It's a Sine Wave!
It's a Sine Wave!
Al Smith lost the 1928 election by being too "wet" -- good thing Democrats moderated on the booze issue by 1932 to win back the prohibitionists.
(this is satire)
(this is satire)
November 4, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Al Smith lost the 1928 election by being too "wet" -- good thing Democrats moderated on the booze issue by 1932 to win back the prohibitionists.
(this is satire)
(this is satire)
Reposted by Lee Drutman
If you want to read more about Moon Duchin's work, here's a study she and her team did for @newamerica.org on how more proportional electoral systems could enhance representation in Massachusetts.
www.newamerica.org/political-re...
www.newamerica.org/political-re...
November 3, 2025 at 8:21 PM
If you want to read more about Moon Duchin's work, here's a study she and her team did for @newamerica.org on how more proportional electoral systems could enhance representation in Massachusetts.
www.newamerica.org/political-re...
www.newamerica.org/political-re...
Reposted by Lee Drutman
This is excellent, by @leedrutman.bsky.social.
(i think the piece suggests fusion voting would not do enough more than that it’s a particularly hopeful way forward. but the analysis of where we are, and how futile much of our factionalizing is, has never been presented more clearly.)
(i think the piece suggests fusion voting would not do enough more than that it’s a particularly hopeful way forward. but the analysis of where we are, and how futile much of our factionalizing is, has never been presented more clearly.)
"Maybe fielding more centrist candidates wins Democrats a few more elections. Maybe it doesn’t. But either way, the argument is about one or two percentage points. And it does nothing to address the core two-party doom loop wrecking our politics." leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
The moderation debate fiddles with 2% while Democracy’s dimensionality collapses
Presidential vote now determines 98% of House outcomes. One-dimensional partisan conflict is authoritarian-friendly territory. Could fusion voting restore competitive dimensions?
leedrutman.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 4:36 PM
This is excellent, by @leedrutman.bsky.social.
(i think the piece suggests fusion voting would not do enough more than that it’s a particularly hopeful way forward. but the analysis of where we are, and how futile much of our factionalizing is, has never been presented more clearly.)
(i think the piece suggests fusion voting would not do enough more than that it’s a particularly hopeful way forward. but the analysis of where we are, and how futile much of our factionalizing is, has never been presented more clearly.)