Lee Drutman
@leedrutman.bsky.social
Political scientist. Believer in democracy, whatever the hell that is.
- Substack: https://leedrutman.substack.com
- Podcast: http://politicsinquestion.com
- Senior Fellow: New America
- Co-Founder: https://www.fixourhouse.org
- Substack: https://leedrutman.substack.com
- Podcast: http://politicsinquestion.com
- Senior Fellow: New America
- Co-Founder: https://www.fixourhouse.org
Will the Trump-Epstein connection ever break through to MAGA?
There is some evidence that at 30-40% "incongruent information", people turn against their candidates.
But below that, doubling-down is strong. Cognitive dissonance is hard for people to handle.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
There is some evidence that at 30-40% "incongruent information", people turn against their candidates.
But below that, doubling-down is strong. Cognitive dissonance is hard for people to handle.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
November 13, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Will the Trump-Epstein connection ever break through to MAGA?
There is some evidence that at 30-40% "incongruent information", people turn against their candidates.
But below that, doubling-down is strong. Cognitive dissonance is hard for people to handle.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
There is some evidence that at 30-40% "incongruent information", people turn against their candidates.
But below that, doubling-down is strong. Cognitive dissonance is hard for people to handle.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
"Collapsing democracies follow on collapsing political parties."
I think about this line from @kimlanelaw.bsky.social a lot.
oxcon.ouplaw.com/display/10.1...
I think about this line from @kimlanelaw.bsky.social a lot.
oxcon.ouplaw.com/display/10.1...
November 13, 2025 at 12:58 PM
"Collapsing democracies follow on collapsing political parties."
I think about this line from @kimlanelaw.bsky.social a lot.
oxcon.ouplaw.com/display/10.1...
I think about this line from @kimlanelaw.bsky.social a lot.
oxcon.ouplaw.com/display/10.1...
Google Trends shows seven states where searches for "SNAP benefits" have outpaced searches for "Taylor Swift" over the last 30 days.
November 11, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Google Trends shows seven states where searches for "SNAP benefits" have outpaced searches for "Taylor Swift" over the last 30 days.
Funny/tragic how much of what we consider to be "winning" on the politics is actually losing on the policy.
The incentives are weird. It's better to have an "issue" than a solution.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
The incentives are weird. It's better to have an "issue" than a solution.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
November 10, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Funny/tragic how much of what we consider to be "winning" on the politics is actually losing on the policy.
The incentives are weird. It's better to have an "issue" than a solution.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
The incentives are weird. It's better to have an "issue" than a solution.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
The only way to avert this mutually assured gerrymandering destruction of democracy is....
wait for it...
PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION.
So...
what are we waiting for?
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
wait for it...
PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION.
So...
what are we waiting for?
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
November 3, 2025 at 12:11 PM
The only way to avert this mutually assured gerrymandering destruction of democracy is....
wait for it...
PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION.
So...
what are we waiting for?
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
wait for it...
PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION.
So...
what are we waiting for?
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
You know what's truly spooky?
How individual candidates have ceased to matter in US Senate elections.
Nationalization and polarization are terrifying forces in our politics.
No-one escapes.... The Two-Party Doom Loop. (mwahahaha) leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
How individual candidates have ceased to matter in US Senate elections.
Nationalization and polarization are terrifying forces in our politics.
No-one escapes.... The Two-Party Doom Loop. (mwahahaha) leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 31, 2025 at 9:38 PM
You know what's truly spooky?
How individual candidates have ceased to matter in US Senate elections.
Nationalization and polarization are terrifying forces in our politics.
No-one escapes.... The Two-Party Doom Loop. (mwahahaha) leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
How individual candidates have ceased to matter in US Senate elections.
Nationalization and polarization are terrifying forces in our politics.
No-one escapes.... The Two-Party Doom Loop. (mwahahaha) leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
Here is the giant sucking sound of House candidates ceasing to matter in an era of nationalized, polarized, presidentialized politics (hello, does "moderation matter anymore?" debate)
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 31, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Here is the giant sucking sound of House candidates ceasing to matter in an era of nationalized, polarized, presidentialized politics (hello, does "moderation matter anymore?" debate)
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
And these are the shrinking distributions
October 30, 2025 at 12:34 PM
And these are the shrinking distributions
And these are the rising R-squareds
October 30, 2025 at 12:34 PM
And these are the rising R-squareds
This is the sound of candidates losing the struggle against the crushing weight of partisan gravity.
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 30, 2025 at 12:34 PM
This is the sound of candidates losing the struggle against the crushing weight of partisan gravity.
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
I jump into the moderation debate. I agree with @adambonica.bsky.social and @gelliottmorris.com on the methodology, but I want to draw attention to a bigger issue. The collapse of candidate effects generally.
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 29, 2025 at 8:04 PM
I jump into the moderation debate. I agree with @adambonica.bsky.social and @gelliottmorris.com on the methodology, but I want to draw attention to a bigger issue. The collapse of candidate effects generally.
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
"Does moderation matter? In our current two-party system? Not really. Presidential vote explains 98% of House outcomes. Candidate quality has collapsed to statistical noise."
open.substack.com/pub/leedrutm...
open.substack.com/pub/leedrutm...
October 29, 2025 at 7:18 PM
"Does moderation matter? In our current two-party system? Not really. Presidential vote explains 98% of House outcomes. Candidate quality has collapsed to statistical noise."
open.substack.com/pub/leedrutm...
open.substack.com/pub/leedrutm...
cc: Janet Mills
leedrutman.substack.com/p/why-americ...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/why-americ...
October 29, 2025 at 11:18 AM
cc: Janet Mills
leedrutman.substack.com/p/why-americ...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/why-americ...
Must read from @andycraig.bsky.social www.theunpopulist.net/p/want-to-en...
October 29, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Must read from @andycraig.bsky.social www.theunpopulist.net/p/want-to-en...
October 22, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Single-member districts make all kinds of mischief possible.
The Supreme Court would be irrelevant here if we had proportional representation. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
The Supreme Court would be irrelevant here if we had proportional representation. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
October 15, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Single-member districts make all kinds of mischief possible.
The Supreme Court would be irrelevant here if we had proportional representation. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
The Supreme Court would be irrelevant here if we had proportional representation. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
Voters still trust Republicans on the economy more than Democrats. I guess waging the same tired old fights on ACA are not changing anyone's mind. Who could have predicted it??? .
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
October 13, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Voters still trust Republicans on the economy more than Democrats. I guess waging the same tired old fights on ACA are not changing anyone's mind. Who could have predicted it??? .
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
New study finds Democrats represent public opinion better than Republicans: "the quality of statehouse democracy, here meaning the dynamic relationship between opinion and policy, is substantially weakened by Republican Party control of state government."
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....
October 13, 2025 at 11:30 AM
New study finds Democrats represent public opinion better than Republicans: "the quality of statehouse democracy, here meaning the dynamic relationship between opinion and policy, is substantially weakened by Republican Party control of state government."
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....
Thermostatic public opinion, reacting against the governing regime, like old faithful.
globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
October 12, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Thermostatic public opinion, reacting against the governing regime, like old faithful.
globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
Not much left-wing violence in America, apparently.
(If you trust The Economist, that socialist rag.)
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
(If you trust The Economist, that socialist rag.)
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
October 9, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Not much left-wing violence in America, apparently.
(If you trust The Economist, that socialist rag.)
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
(If you trust The Economist, that socialist rag.)
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
all of our national leaders are unpopular.
September 30, 2025 at 5:27 PM
all of our national leaders are unpopular.