Ethan Struby
@estruby.bsky.social
Assistant Professor of Economics
@carletoncollege. Macroeconomic expectations, monetary policy, Treasury markets, #TeachEcon
Views expressed here are not those of my employer.
https://estruby.github.io/
@carletoncollege. Macroeconomic expectations, monetary policy, Treasury markets, #TeachEcon
Views expressed here are not those of my employer.
https://estruby.github.io/
Pinned
Ethan Struby
@estruby.bsky.social
· Sep 15
a thread of examples that there is no Great Stagnation :
Reposted by Ethan Struby
a man who rides a horse is called a horseman
November 21, 2025 at 5:47 PM
a man who rides a horse is called a horseman
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Narrative violation: Vermont was an independent Republic for longer than Texas.
They even had a separate negotiated peace with Britain.
They even had a separate negotiated peace with Britain.
November 21, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Narrative violation: Vermont was an independent Republic for longer than Texas.
They even had a separate negotiated peace with Britain.
They even had a separate negotiated peace with Britain.
Amaze Lusompa at the Kansas City Fed has a nice-looking new working paper about the asymptotic properties of model selection criteria, which I'll need to digest at some point: www.kansascityfed.org/documents/12...
www.kansascityfed.org
November 20, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Amaze Lusompa at the Kansas City Fed has a nice-looking new working paper about the asymptotic properties of model selection criteria, which I'll need to digest at some point: www.kansascityfed.org/documents/12...
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Looking to speak with academics/experts specializing in video games studies specifically ideas around conquest, environmentalism, and land for a piece. Please repost this or give recs.
November 19, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Looking to speak with academics/experts specializing in video games studies specifically ideas around conquest, environmentalism, and land for a piece. Please repost this or give recs.
quick and dirty, but: the economy added roughly 2 million jobs between Jan 2024 and Jan 2025. Since January 2025, it's added about 573,000.
#jobsday
#jobsday
November 20, 2025 at 2:28 PM
quick and dirty, but: the economy added roughly 2 million jobs between Jan 2024 and Jan 2025. Since January 2025, it's added about 573,000.
#jobsday
#jobsday
Reposted by Ethan Struby
The discourse on education is so overdetermined and tedious in general, but also poisoned by everyone thinking they have valid views of proper teaching because they have the experience of having been taught.
November 19, 2025 at 4:07 PM
The discourse on education is so overdetermined and tedious in general, but also poisoned by everyone thinking they have valid views of proper teaching because they have the experience of having been taught.
Got to bust this out in a group chat involving “planning thanksgiving around various dietary restrictions”
youtu.be/dLpCZ8g5uK8?...
youtu.be/dLpCZ8g5uK8?...
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (5/10) Movie CLIP - The Vegan Police (2010) HD
YouTube video by Movieclips
youtu.be
November 18, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Got to bust this out in a group chat involving “planning thanksgiving around various dietary restrictions”
youtu.be/dLpCZ8g5uK8?...
youtu.be/dLpCZ8g5uK8?...
I can't tell if I'm genuinely getting a metric ton of phishing attempts or if it my schools' cybersecurity people are just really hyped about trying to catch me slippin
November 18, 2025 at 3:31 PM
I can't tell if I'm genuinely getting a metric ton of phishing attempts or if it my schools' cybersecurity people are just really hyped about trying to catch me slippin
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Talking about the tradeoffs between timeliness and accuracy is pretty abstract until you watch the Fed trying to read tea leaves from scraped LinkedIn data and online layoff announcements until the official data comes out
November 18, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Talking about the tradeoffs between timeliness and accuracy is pretty abstract until you watch the Fed trying to read tea leaves from scraped LinkedIn data and online layoff announcements until the official data comes out
Reposted by Ethan Struby
While everyone is still digesting how it feels to not see a Sept jobs report until late November, remember this feeling the next time folks complain about monthly revisions and suggest publishing data with a 2 or 3 month lag.
November 18, 2025 at 12:04 AM
While everyone is still digesting how it feels to not see a Sept jobs report until late November, remember this feeling the next time folks complain about monthly revisions and suggest publishing data with a 2 or 3 month lag.
Reposted by Ethan Struby
a big runoff last night, in New Orleans:
Calvin Duncan was exonerated after spending *28 years* in prison; he tried to get his own case records from the New Orleans city clerk—but the office dragged its feet.
So Duncan ran to become city clerk himself, and yesterday ousted the incumbent.
Calvin Duncan was exonerated after spending *28 years* in prison; he tried to get his own case records from the New Orleans city clerk—but the office dragged its feet.
So Duncan ran to become city clerk himself, and yesterday ousted the incumbent.
Calvin Duncan wins Orleans clerk of court race - Verite News New Orleans
Duncan, a political newcomer and former prisoner, defeated incumbent Darren Lombard by a wide margin in Saturday's runoff.
veritenews.org
November 16, 2025 at 4:09 PM
a big runoff last night, in New Orleans:
Calvin Duncan was exonerated after spending *28 years* in prison; he tried to get his own case records from the New Orleans city clerk—but the office dragged its feet.
So Duncan ran to become city clerk himself, and yesterday ousted the incumbent.
Calvin Duncan was exonerated after spending *28 years* in prison; he tried to get his own case records from the New Orleans city clerk—but the office dragged its feet.
So Duncan ran to become city clerk himself, and yesterday ousted the incumbent.
Not to be obtuse but has he heard of what the Supreme Court did about various New Deal programs
Bessent on tariffs: "This is one of President Trump's signature policies, and traditionally the Supreme Court does not interfere with a president's signature policy."
November 16, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Not to be obtuse but has he heard of what the Supreme Court did about various New Deal programs
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Exposure to a field-specific faculty sexual misconduct incident decreases degree completion in that field by 3.4 percent four years after the incident, from Sarah R. Cohodes and Katherine B. Leu www.nber.org/papers/w34456
November 14, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Exposure to a field-specific faculty sexual misconduct incident decreases degree completion in that field by 3.4 percent four years after the incident, from Sarah R. Cohodes and Katherine B. Leu www.nber.org/papers/w34456
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Since we don't yet have new official claims data, my last (?) rogue report (I missed last week!), for week ending Nov. 1st. CC increased 20k (SA) or 7k (NSA) last week.
November 14, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Since we don't yet have new official claims data, my last (?) rogue report (I missed last week!), for week ending Nov. 1st. CC increased 20k (SA) or 7k (NSA) last week.
Reposted by Ethan Struby
People talk about their credit card points schemes like explaining the jokers in their best Balatro run
November 13, 2025 at 3:51 PM
People talk about their credit card points schemes like explaining the jokers in their best Balatro run
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Oof
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
November 12, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Oof
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
Reposted by Ethan Struby
👋 I'm Danielle, and I'm on the #econjobmarket this year!
Let's start with a student describing her segregated school:
"The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education"
The twist? The student is white, and her school is private.
A JMP 🧵 -->
Let's start with a student describing her segregated school:
"The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education"
The twist? The student is white, and her school is private.
A JMP 🧵 -->
November 12, 2025 at 3:57 PM
👋 I'm Danielle, and I'm on the #econjobmarket this year!
Let's start with a student describing her segregated school:
"The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education"
The twist? The student is white, and her school is private.
A JMP 🧵 -->
Let's start with a student describing her segregated school:
"The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education"
The twist? The student is white, and her school is private.
A JMP 🧵 -->
My prior to the answer for most of these:
November 12, 2025 at 2:01 PM
My prior to the answer for most of these:
Go see Ethan!
Folks going to APPAM, I'll be presenting/discussing 3 times! Would love to get feedback and talk shop with folks. Here's where you'll be able to find me:
-Thursday 1:45-3:15pm, presenting The Effects of Occupational Licensing on Racial Wage and Employment Gaps (V preliminary, would love a couauthor)
-Thursday 1:45-3:15pm, presenting The Effects of Occupational Licensing on Racial Wage and Employment Gaps (V preliminary, would love a couauthor)
November 11, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Go see Ethan!
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Banger of a new study #econtwitter #econsky shows exposure to a field-specific incidence of faculty sexual harassment ⬇️ degree completion in that discipline - for both men and women - 4 years later
November 11, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Banger of a new study #econtwitter #econsky shows exposure to a field-specific incidence of faculty sexual harassment ⬇️ degree completion in that discipline - for both men and women - 4 years later
@kathbarbadoro.bsky.social seems like a lie cheat and steal ep/anecdote for you: michaelostrogorsky.substack.com/p/the-great-...
The Great Seattle Gold Scandal of 1905
Or, How to live like a debonair dandy on a six dollar a day salary!
michaelostrogorsky.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:04 PM
@kathbarbadoro.bsky.social seems like a lie cheat and steal ep/anecdote for you: michaelostrogorsky.substack.com/p/the-great-...
Reposted by Ethan Struby
american health care is fundamentally based on insurance in one form or another and every time it gets tweaked a lot of people reveal that they do not understand or do not support the concept of insurance
Remember that insurance is actually a thing you hope never to use, and then read this critique.
November 10, 2025 at 4:01 PM
american health care is fundamentally based on insurance in one form or another and every time it gets tweaked a lot of people reveal that they do not understand or do not support the concept of insurance
Reposted by Ethan Struby
rumors of the bias-variance tradeoff's demise have been greatly exaggerated
AtlasIntel, the self-proclaimed “best pollster in America,” missed last week’s elections by an average of 9 points across races and by 14 points in New Jersey.
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
What makes the “best pollsters” of 2024 so accurate?
Primarily it’s a mix of experimentation and biased estimates that get lucky
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:58 PM
rumors of the bias-variance tradeoff's demise have been greatly exaggerated
Gonna issue consols to buy a house
November 8, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Gonna issue consols to buy a house