Michael McDonald
@electproject.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida specializing in American elections
Why didn’t Senate Democrats keep the government shut down until January, 2027?
November 10, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Why didn’t Senate Democrats keep the government shut down until January, 2027?
Don’t you ever go changing, Nate Silver
the hipsters, they’re ordering double frufru mocha soy frappuccino. doesn’t anybody order a black coffee anymore
November 10, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Don’t you ever go changing, Nate Silver
Trump and Republicans raised ACA health care premiums. They were unwilling to compromise despite a historically long shutdown and dismal public approval. Holding a vote after premiums go up, and enforcing the vote with another shutdown threat can force Republicans to own the issue
November 10, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Trump and Republicans raised ACA health care premiums. They were unwilling to compromise despite a historically long shutdown and dismal public approval. Holding a vote after premiums go up, and enforcing the vote with another shutdown threat can force Republicans to own the issue
Reposted by Michael McDonald
NEW: Donald Trump has pardoned a long list of allies in his bid to subvert the 2020 election including:
-Rudy Giuliani
-John Eastman
-Mark Meadows
-Sidney Powell
-Ken Chesebro
-Christina Bobb
-Kelli Ward
-Jenna Ellis
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
-Rudy Giuliani
-John Eastman
-Mark Meadows
-Sidney Powell
-Ken Chesebro
-Christina Bobb
-Kelli Ward
-Jenna Ellis
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
November 10, 2025 at 5:56 AM
NEW: Donald Trump has pardoned a long list of allies in his bid to subvert the 2020 election including:
-Rudy Giuliani
-John Eastman
-Mark Meadows
-Sidney Powell
-Ken Chesebro
-Christina Bobb
-Kelli Ward
-Jenna Ellis
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
-Rudy Giuliani
-John Eastman
-Mark Meadows
-Sidney Powell
-Ken Chesebro
-Christina Bobb
-Kelli Ward
-Jenna Ellis
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Reposted by Michael McDonald
Trump just got massively booed and flipped off by the crowd at the Commanders game.
(Video: Marisa Schultz)
(Video: Marisa Schultz)
November 9, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Trump just got massively booed and flipped off by the crowd at the Commanders game.
(Video: Marisa Schultz)
(Video: Marisa Schultz)
Reposted by Michael McDonald
Regular reminder that Axios stories saying Dems are about to cave are likely sourced from GOP staffers trying to make it happen.
Doesn't mean it definitely won't happen. But it's like those NYT stories that Harvard is considering caving (they haven't). The anonymous source was trying to manifest it.
Doesn't mean it definitely won't happen. But it's like those NYT stories that Harvard is considering caving (they haven't). The anonymous source was trying to manifest it.
November 9, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Regular reminder that Axios stories saying Dems are about to cave are likely sourced from GOP staffers trying to make it happen.
Doesn't mean it definitely won't happen. But it's like those NYT stories that Harvard is considering caving (they haven't). The anonymous source was trying to manifest it.
Doesn't mean it definitely won't happen. But it's like those NYT stories that Harvard is considering caving (they haven't). The anonymous source was trying to manifest it.
"We" means I will take credit for what Democrats do to fix the problem I created
WELKER: Should the 300,000 Oklahomas who rely on ACA subsidies be prepared for their costs to skyrocket?
LANKFORD: We're trying to find a way to be able to help
(That's a yes!)
LANKFORD: We're trying to find a way to be able to help
(That's a yes!)
November 9, 2025 at 4:27 PM
"We" means I will take credit for what Democrats do to fix the problem I created
Ice goons + SNAP = misery for the poor
Gilded ballrooms and bathrooms, lavish parties, flying palaces, and billions in crypto schemes for Trump
Gilded ballrooms and bathrooms, lavish parties, flying palaces, and billions in crypto schemes for Trump
November 9, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Ice goons + SNAP = misery for the poor
Gilded ballrooms and bathrooms, lavish parties, flying palaces, and billions in crypto schemes for Trump
Gilded ballrooms and bathrooms, lavish parties, flying palaces, and billions in crypto schemes for Trump
Trump take Thanksgiving family dinner
The disruptions from federal restrictions on flying at the nation’s busiest airports were challenging, but relatively contained this weekend. But the cuts are expected to grow in the coming days, threatening to wreak havoc for airlines and travelers as Thanksgiving approaches.
Airport Disruptions May Get Worse This Week
The fact that planes are generally less full in early November helped airlines limit the impact. That will change as Thanksgiving nears.
nyti.ms
November 9, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Trump take Thanksgiving family dinner
Reposted by Michael McDonald
Now time for another nappy nap after all that thumb exercise
November 9, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Now time for another nappy nap after all that thumb exercise
There’s also tariffs and ICE goons weighing down the economy. If it wasn’t for the AI bubble the size of the Death Star we’d been in recession right now
STEPHANOPOULOS: Are we starting to see a permanent impact on the economy from the shutdown?
BESSENT: It's getting worse and worse. We had a fantastic economy under Trump the last 2 Qs, and now there are estimates that growth this Q could be cut by as much as half. We could end up with shortages.
BESSENT: It's getting worse and worse. We had a fantastic economy under Trump the last 2 Qs, and now there are estimates that growth this Q could be cut by as much as half. We could end up with shortages.
November 9, 2025 at 2:32 PM
There’s also tariffs and ICE goons weighing down the economy. If it wasn’t for the AI bubble the size of the Death Star we’d been in recession right now
Reposted by Michael McDonald
So the oldest person ever to become president keeps falling asleep in his office during public events and there’s no big public discussion on how this is a coverup or how republicans are lying to us about how this government is running?
November 9, 2025 at 1:41 PM
So the oldest person ever to become president keeps falling asleep in his office during public events and there’s no big public discussion on how this is a coverup or how republicans are lying to us about how this government is running?
Reposted by Michael McDonald
A $64,000 Thailand beach vacation package being auctioned off at Mar-a-Lago as Americans continue to struggle with high grocery prices
November 8, 2025 at 9:30 PM
A $64,000 Thailand beach vacation package being auctioned off at Mar-a-Lago as Americans continue to struggle with high grocery prices
The Heritage Foundation, of course. It’s in the name of
1/ The US Government has quietly removed a memorial to Black soldiers who died in World War II from the Netherlands American Cemetery in Margraten, South Limburg. The move follows a complaint from the right-wing Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission. ⬇️
November 9, 2025 at 1:16 PM
The Heritage Foundation, of course. It’s in the name of
Add noticeable drooping on the right side of Trump's face when he loses focus
During an event on Thursday, Donald Trump seemed to repeatedly struggle to keep his eyes open.
A Washington Post analysis of multiple video feeds found that Trump spent roughly 20 minutes battling to keep his eyes open.
New video w/ @ddiamond.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
A Washington Post analysis of multiple video feeds found that Trump spent roughly 20 minutes battling to keep his eyes open.
New video w/ @ddiamond.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
November 8, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Add noticeable drooping on the right side of Trump's face when he loses focus
Reposted by Michael McDonald
District Judge Sara Ellis' injunction order limits how and when feds can use gas in the Chicago area.
It restricts the use of gas in "residential or commercial areas" that could risk injury to a plaintiff class member "who is not causing an immediate threat of physical harm to another person"
It restricts the use of gas in "residential or commercial areas" that could risk injury to a plaintiff class member "who is not causing an immediate threat of physical harm to another person"
November 8, 2025 at 6:02 PM
District Judge Sara Ellis' injunction order limits how and when feds can use gas in the Chicago area.
It restricts the use of gas in "residential or commercial areas" that could risk injury to a plaintiff class member "who is not causing an immediate threat of physical harm to another person"
It restricts the use of gas in "residential or commercial areas" that could risk injury to a plaintiff class member "who is not causing an immediate threat of physical harm to another person"
Health insurance CEOs are at this moment ordering a golden golf cart
November 8, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Health insurance CEOs are at this moment ordering a golden golf cart
Reposted by Michael McDonald
"When I picked up my granddaughter from the federal agents, she had a dirty diaper, a bruise on her face, and was developing a rash. She was exhausted and cried… My heart aches knowing this could happen to others, to my kids, or even me, despite being U.S. citizens.”
November 8, 2025 at 3:26 PM
"When I picked up my granddaughter from the federal agents, she had a dirty diaper, a bruise on her face, and was developing a rash. She was exhausted and cried… My heart aches knowing this could happen to others, to my kids, or even me, despite being U.S. citizens.”
A rule-of-thumb forecast that might be informative moving forward is to take the special election margin shifts over the next year and divide by half. I explain here michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/turnout-an...
Turnout and Margin of Victory in the 2025 Statewide Partisan Races
Low Turnout Special Elections Do Have Useful Information
michaelmcdonald.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 6:03 PM
A rule-of-thumb forecast that might be informative moving forward is to take the special election margin shifts over the next year and divide by half. I explain here michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/turnout-an...
Reposted by Michael McDonald
every time you think the new WaPo editorial board can't embarrass itself any more, they manage to find a way.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
November 7, 2025 at 6:25 PM
every time you think the new WaPo editorial board can't embarrass itself any more, they manage to find a way.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
Reposted by Michael McDonald
Imagine shareholders willing to give a trillion dollars to a guy who says there are 20 million dead people getting Social Security, but is too incompetent to find any of them.
With Tesla stock at a price-to-earnings ratio of almost 300 it doesn't look like anyone is buying what Elon Musk is selling, other than Tesla shareholders finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
Find the latest Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
finance.yahoo.com
November 8, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Imagine shareholders willing to give a trillion dollars to a guy who says there are 20 million dead people getting Social Security, but is too incompetent to find any of them.
Reposted by Michael McDonald
I remember reading a bunch of corporate media stories about Biden after he got new shoes with better support. Which, by the way, he did after he fractured his foot. bsky.app/profile/atru...
photos of Trump sleeping through yesterday's Oval Office event via Andrew Harnik of Getty
November 8, 2025 at 2:22 PM
I remember reading a bunch of corporate media stories about Biden after he got new shoes with better support. Which, by the way, he did after he fractured his foot. bsky.app/profile/atru...
Reposted by Michael McDonald
ICE agents in Chicago violently detain a non verbal autistic man for being “non compliant”
He couldn’t “comply” because of his disability…they don’t care
This is not the first time they’ve gone after a disabled person
They target the most vulnerable because it’s an easy way to meet their quota
He couldn’t “comply” because of his disability…they don’t care
This is not the first time they’ve gone after a disabled person
They target the most vulnerable because it’s an easy way to meet their quota
November 8, 2025 at 8:15 AM
ICE agents in Chicago violently detain a non verbal autistic man for being “non compliant”
He couldn’t “comply” because of his disability…they don’t care
This is not the first time they’ve gone after a disabled person
They target the most vulnerable because it’s an easy way to meet their quota
He couldn’t “comply” because of his disability…they don’t care
This is not the first time they’ve gone after a disabled person
They target the most vulnerable because it’s an easy way to meet their quota
Trump Cake to be provided in place of SNAP
Trump is now selling his Trump Wine on military bases. www.forbes.com/sites/zachev...
Trump Wines Sold At Coast Guard Stores On Federal Property
Exchanges in Washington, D.C., and Virginia have stocked Trump-branded wine and cider, allowing his family’s business to earn revenue from sales on federal property.
www.forbes.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Trump Cake to be provided in place of SNAP