Cheesles
@cheesles.bsky.social
Retired dividend investor.
Having a go at sustaining a high-income portfolio.
Having a go at sustaining a high-income portfolio.
Reposted by Cheesles
People will soon pay a premium for certified human-only created art, music, lit, etc.
Duh.
Bummer that we'll have to.
Duh.
Bummer that we'll have to.
November 13, 2025 at 8:38 PM
People will soon pay a premium for certified human-only created art, music, lit, etc.
Duh.
Bummer that we'll have to.
Duh.
Bummer that we'll have to.
Reposted by Cheesles
when your 20 year old space company is valued at 800 billion dollars and you're still blowing out shares to keep the lights on (and pay employees), you don't have a real company. hth
this bubble popping will be spectacular
this bubble popping will be spectacular
SpaceX is kicking off a secondary share sale that would value it at $800 billion, surpassing OpenAI as the most valuable U.S. private company.
Exclusive | SpaceX in Talks for Share Sale That Would Boost Valuation to $800 Billion
The company’s CFO told investors about the transaction in recent days, sources say.
on.wsj.com
December 5, 2025 at 7:54 PM
when your 20 year old space company is valued at 800 billion dollars and you're still blowing out shares to keep the lights on (and pay employees), you don't have a real company. hth
this bubble popping will be spectacular
this bubble popping will be spectacular
A helpful and informative read from @claudia-sahm.bsky.social . So go get helped and informed.
#econsky
#finsky
www.imf.org/en/publicati...
#econsky
#finsky
www.imf.org/en/publicati...
Alternative Data and Monetary Policy
Central bankers are tapping nontraditional data sources for a more complete picture of the economy
www.imf.org
December 5, 2025 at 7:59 PM
A helpful and informative read from @claudia-sahm.bsky.social . So go get helped and informed.
#econsky
#finsky
www.imf.org/en/publicati...
#econsky
#finsky
www.imf.org/en/publicati...
Reposted by Cheesles
I have participated in the 'Fed Chair sweepstakes' like any good Fed watcher. It matters. But **absolutely pivotal** for next year is the Supreme Court decision on Lisa Cook. If the President can remove members of the Board without review, it's game over for Fed independence.
“Big changes that could happen at the Fed, in terms of the Supreme Court allowing the president to remove a Fed governor,” said Claudia Sahm. “I think at the end of the day, the economy’s going to drive where rates go. But it could be a pretty uncomfortable ride.” www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
Federal funds rate predicted to go lower in 2026
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates next week as predicted, and Kevin Hassett becomes Fed Chair, where will rates be at this time next year?
www.marketplace.org
December 5, 2025 at 7:08 PM
I have participated in the 'Fed Chair sweepstakes' like any good Fed watcher. It matters. But **absolutely pivotal** for next year is the Supreme Court decision on Lisa Cook. If the President can remove members of the Board without review, it's game over for Fed independence.
Technical analysis is the phrenology of the investing cosmos.
December 4, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Technical analysis is the phrenology of the investing cosmos.
Reposted by Cheesles
Trump goes on another racist rant about Somalis: "Ilhan Omar should be thrown the hell out of our country, and most of those people -- they have destroyed Minnesota. It's a hellhole right now. Those Somalians should be out of here. They have destroyed out country ... go back to your own country."
December 3, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Trump goes on another racist rant about Somalis: "Ilhan Omar should be thrown the hell out of our country, and most of those people -- they have destroyed Minnesota. It's a hellhole right now. Those Somalians should be out of here. They have destroyed out country ... go back to your own country."
Reposted by Cheesles
Official government statistics that come from independent statistical agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Those folks tell the truth. The problem, of course, is that every word that comes out of the White House, almost every word... is a lie."
December 3, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Official government statistics that come from independent statistical agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Those folks tell the truth. The problem, of course, is that every word that comes out of the White House, almost every word... is a lie."
Reposted by Cheesles
Reposted by Cheesles
‘We now have confirmation, with the OECD saying in a new report that, without AI capex, U.S. economic growth declined in the first half of 2025. People keep wondering why the employment market is weak, but the economy somehow chugs along. This is why.’ paulkedrosky.com/ex-ai-capex-...
December 2, 2025 at 8:51 PM
‘We now have confirmation, with the OECD saying in a new report that, without AI capex, U.S. economic growth declined in the first half of 2025. People keep wondering why the employment market is weak, but the economy somehow chugs along. This is why.’ paulkedrosky.com/ex-ai-capex-...
Reposted by Cheesles
Nvidia is spending $1.3 billion to rent its own chips back from CoreWeave, a company in which it owns a $4 billion stake.
There are, AFAICT, only two explanations for this arrangement:
(1) It's accounting fraud.
(2) It's accounting non-fraud, because we don't prosecute financial crimes anymore.
There are, AFAICT, only two explanations for this arrangement:
(1) It's accounting fraud.
(2) It's accounting non-fraud, because we don't prosecute financial crimes anymore.
December 2, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Nvidia is spending $1.3 billion to rent its own chips back from CoreWeave, a company in which it owns a $4 billion stake.
There are, AFAICT, only two explanations for this arrangement:
(1) It's accounting fraud.
(2) It's accounting non-fraud, because we don't prosecute financial crimes anymore.
There are, AFAICT, only two explanations for this arrangement:
(1) It's accounting fraud.
(2) It's accounting non-fraud, because we don't prosecute financial crimes anymore.
Reposted by Cheesles
in terms of focussing on "affordability," this is one of the worst things you could do as the Transportation Department.
The U.S. Transportation Department is threatening to shut down thousands of truck driving schools, part of the Trump administration's widening crackdown on industry.
Thousands of U.S. trucking schools could lose accreditation under DOT crackdown
The U.S. Transportation Department is threatening to shut down thousands of truck driving schools, part of the Trump administration's widening crackdown on industry.
n.pr
December 2, 2025 at 4:10 AM
in terms of focussing on "affordability," this is one of the worst things you could do as the Transportation Department.
Reposted by Cheesles
$RVT declares a banger of a Q4 distro:
Royce Small-Cap Trust (RVT) declares $0.54/share
Payable Dec. 24; for shareholders of record Dec. 11; ex-div Dec. 11.
Royce Small-Cap Trust (RVT) declares $0.54/share
Payable Dec. 24; for shareholders of record Dec. 11; ex-div Dec. 11.
December 1, 2025 at 10:26 PM
$RVT declares a banger of a Q4 distro:
Royce Small-Cap Trust (RVT) declares $0.54/share
Payable Dec. 24; for shareholders of record Dec. 11; ex-div Dec. 11.
Royce Small-Cap Trust (RVT) declares $0.54/share
Payable Dec. 24; for shareholders of record Dec. 11; ex-div Dec. 11.
Reposted by Cheesles
Relying on ChatGPT to teach you about a topic leaves you with shallower knowledge than Googling and reading about it, according to new research that compared what more than 10,000 people knew after using one method or the other.
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
Learning With AI Falls Short Compared to Old-Fashioned Web Search
In virtually all the ways that matter, getting summarized information from AI models was less educational than doing the work of search.
buff.ly
November 30, 2025 at 3:30 AM
Relying on ChatGPT to teach you about a topic leaves you with shallower knowledge than Googling and reading about it, according to new research that compared what more than 10,000 people knew after using one method or the other.
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
With divs and interest I don't need to live on, Added to RVT, EDD, USA, KYN, BCX, PFFR, UTG, UTF, AOD, BGY.
November 28, 2025 at 4:30 PM
With divs and interest I don't need to live on, Added to RVT, EDD, USA, KYN, BCX, PFFR, UTG, UTF, AOD, BGY.
Reposted by Cheesles
HSBC forecasts that OpenAI is going to have nearly a half trillion in operating losses until 2030
November 27, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Reposted by Cheesles
Reposted by Cheesles
Blackrock does not buy homes.
Blackstone does.
Jesus.
Blackstone does.
Jesus.
November 27, 2025 at 5:13 AM
Blackrock does not buy homes.
Blackstone does.
Jesus.
Blackstone does.
Jesus.
Reposted by Cheesles
CHART: Bitcoin ETFs shed $58B, dropping faster than BTC protos.com/chart-bitcoi...
CHART: Bitcoin ETFs shed $58B, dropping faster than BTC
Although both BTC ETFs and the price of BTC itself have declined since October, ETF outflows have far outpaced the asset's decline.
protos.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:23 AM
CHART: Bitcoin ETFs shed $58B, dropping faster than BTC protos.com/chart-bitcoi...
Reposted by Cheesles
If there's ever been a big flashing light that signals 'Exit All Grifts' it's a sharp sustained downturn for Bitcoin.
Crypto hoarders dump tokens as shares tumble on.ft.com/49As3k6
Crypto hoarders dump tokens as shares tumble
‘Digital asset treasury’ craze sours amid $1tn rout in cryptocurrency market
on.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:20 AM
If there's ever been a big flashing light that signals 'Exit All Grifts' it's a sharp sustained downturn for Bitcoin.
Reposted by Cheesles
To cut rates, you'd need to forecast inflation falling to 2% very soon (not likely) or an employment recession (possible).
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
Should the Fed raise rates in December?
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
November 26, 2025 at 12:24 AM
To cut rates, you'd need to forecast inflation falling to 2% very soon (not likely) or an employment recession (possible).
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
Reposted by Cheesles
Is the problem the economic "messaging" or the economic "outcomes"
November 24, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Is the problem the economic "messaging" or the economic "outcomes"