Charlotte Swasey
@charlotteeffect.bsky.social
Data witch for good causes and bad datasets
Today on the blog: Democrats should run weirder campaigns, and people with clever ideas should go run a long shot state legislative campaign
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
I need Democrats to try getting weird
We should be running creative, chaotic, and experimental state legislative campaigns
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Today on the blog: Democrats should run weirder campaigns, and people with clever ideas should go run a long shot state legislative campaign
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
Seems like someone could do a better more deeply reported story on this!
Interesting to see @meganwachspress.bsky.social observe that the Sierra Club’s staff were clear-eyed about the need for clean energy development while the *members/small-dollar donor base* were more resistant to it.
I was at the Sierra Club during the period described in this article and although I have my criticisms, it gets the issues in the Club fundamentally wrong. A 🧵
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/u...
November 7, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Seems like someone could do a better more deeply reported story on this!
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
It is positively insane to primary challenge Golden from his left!
www.bangordailynews.com/2025/11/05/o...
www.bangordailynews.com/2025/11/05/o...
Jared Golden: I won’t seek reelection. Here’s why.
"What I could accomplish in this increasingly unproductive Congress pales in comparison to what I could do in that time as a husband, a father and a son."
www.bangordailynews.com
November 5, 2025 at 8:37 PM
It is positively insane to primary challenge Golden from his left!
www.bangordailynews.com/2025/11/05/o...
www.bangordailynews.com/2025/11/05/o...
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
virgin bsky poster: all that really matters is vibes and fighting for something, poll-testing is the death of campaigns
chad zohran mamdani: let's spend lots of money fine-tuning the exact language we use to talk about affordability and bring up affordability in response to every question
chad zohran mamdani: let's spend lots of money fine-tuning the exact language we use to talk about affordability and bring up affordability in response to every question
November 5, 2025 at 7:02 PM
virgin bsky poster: all that really matters is vibes and fighting for something, poll-testing is the death of campaigns
chad zohran mamdani: let's spend lots of money fine-tuning the exact language we use to talk about affordability and bring up affordability in response to every question
chad zohran mamdani: let's spend lots of money fine-tuning the exact language we use to talk about affordability and bring up affordability in response to every question
Have we not learned that day after the election posts like this are usually wrong. Exit polls are bad, rapidly calculating vote by demographic is hard to impossible, please chill out
WOW. 81% of women 18-29 voted for Mamdani, 80% for Sherril, and 78% for Spanberger.
Gen Z women aren't playing around.
Gen Z women aren't playing around.
November 5, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Have we not learned that day after the election posts like this are usually wrong. Exit polls are bad, rapidly calculating vote by demographic is hard to impossible, please chill out
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
“Given all the notes he struck during the campaign, it is revealing to consider those Mamdani left unplayed. One in particular stands out: Throughout the mayoral run, Mamdani rarely spoke about climate change — often doing so only when directly asked.” heatmap.news/politics/zoh...
Zohran Mamdani’s Muted Climate Politics
The self-described “ecosocialist” ran an ultra-disciplined campaign for New York City mayor. Once he’s in office, the climate issue could become unavoidable.
heatmap.news
November 5, 2025 at 6:08 PM
“Given all the notes he struck during the campaign, it is revealing to consider those Mamdani left unplayed. One in particular stands out: Throughout the mayoral run, Mamdani rarely spoke about climate change — often doing so only when directly asked.” heatmap.news/politics/zoh...
Super interesting thread! This accounting of what's likely to happen doesn't quiiiite match up with voter perceptions of what's likely to happen. Which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.
November 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Super interesting thread! This accounting of what's likely to happen doesn't quiiiite match up with voter perceptions of what's likely to happen. Which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.
"don't post about voter registration trends" is the new "don't post about early vote"
The next time there's an article about how voter registration numbers are an omen for the next election remember: This piece ran two days before New Jersey Democrats pulled off a blowout win.
These 13 N.J. towns saw a surprise surge in Republican voter registrations
Republicans made huge gains in some traditionally Democratic strongholds in New Jersey in recent years. See the list.
www.nj.com
November 5, 2025 at 5:51 PM
"don't post about voter registration trends" is the new "don't post about early vote"
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
Raids inside day cares had been off limits until this year, when, on his first day in office, President Donald Trump removed that protection.
The arrest reportedly took place in front of children.
19thnews.org/2025/11/chil...
The arrest reportedly took place in front of children.
19thnews.org/2025/11/chil...
‘I have papers’: Child care worker detained by ICE officers inside a Chicago day care
Raids inside day cares had been off limits until this year, when, on his first day in office, President Donald Trump removed that protection.
19thnews.org
November 5, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Raids inside day cares had been off limits until this year, when, on his first day in office, President Donald Trump removed that protection.
The arrest reportedly took place in front of children.
19thnews.org/2025/11/chil...
The arrest reportedly took place in front of children.
19thnews.org/2025/11/chil...
also shoutout to our partner on this media analysis, Nontoxic Media, for many things but especially teaching me the many many ways transcribing can misspell "Mamdani"
November 5, 2025 at 5:21 PM
also shoutout to our partner on this media analysis, Nontoxic Media, for many things but especially teaching me the many many ways transcribing can misspell "Mamdani"
NEW from @searchlightinst.bsky.social What did Zohran Mamdani *say* and what did voters *hear*? We analyzed hundreds of videos from all the NYC mayoral candidates, and then we asked voters what *they* thought the election was about. 🧵
November 5, 2025 at 5:20 PM
NEW from @searchlightinst.bsky.social What did Zohran Mamdani *say* and what did voters *hear*? We analyzed hundreds of videos from all the NYC mayoral candidates, and then we asked voters what *they* thought the election was about. 🧵
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
The most powerful tool a campaign has is the candidate. And despite academics charts showing low ticket-splitting, a focused candidate *can* differentiate them from the party. Mamdani focused on costs and voters listened.
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
November 5, 2025 at 4:39 PM
The most powerful tool a campaign has is the candidate. And despite academics charts showing low ticket-splitting, a focused candidate *can* differentiate them from the party. Mamdani focused on costs and voters listened.
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
Democrats sweep three supreme court elections in Pennsylvania, defeating high-profile Republican bid to unseat them. They won large statewide victories, centered largely on the court’s role in defending voting and abortion rights. boltsmag.org/pennsylvania...
Democrats Retain Control of Pennsylvania's Supreme Court with Three-Seat Sweep - Bolts
Three Democratic justices on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court have defeated an unusually high-profile Republican bid to unseat them. They secured large statewide victories on Tuesday, following an histo...
boltsmag.org
November 5, 2025 at 3:12 AM
Democrats sweep three supreme court elections in Pennsylvania, defeating high-profile Republican bid to unseat them. They won large statewide victories, centered largely on the court’s role in defending voting and abortion rights. boltsmag.org/pennsylvania...
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
See our AAPOR report on 2024 poll accuracy that was released last week!
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
November 4, 2025 at 2:51 PM
See our AAPOR report on 2024 poll accuracy that was released last week!
1. Don't try to win
2. ??????
3. Dramatic reforms
Sure, I bet that'll work. I understand that trying to win is the boring bit, but you've gotta do that first.
2. ??????
3. Dramatic reforms
Sure, I bet that'll work. I understand that trying to win is the boring bit, but you've gotta do that first.
Once again, the Actual Thing the Actual Democrats Must Actually Do is to make institutional reform the platform & to explain to voters why & how Doing A Popularism is the <consequence> of that, not a prerequisite.
- DC/PR/USVI statehood
- Enlarging the House
- MMDs
- New VRA
- Totally revamping SCOTUS: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
- Automatic universal voter registration
- Rewriting the "national emergency" laws: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
- Subordinating the Senate: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
Etc.
- Enlarging the House
- MMDs
- New VRA
- Totally revamping SCOTUS: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
- Automatic universal voter registration
- Rewriting
- Subordinating the Senate: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
Etc.
November 2, 2025 at 1:41 AM
1. Don't try to win
2. ??????
3. Dramatic reforms
Sure, I bet that'll work. I understand that trying to win is the boring bit, but you've gotta do that first.
2. ??????
3. Dramatic reforms
Sure, I bet that'll work. I understand that trying to win is the boring bit, but you've gotta do that first.
Reupping this: I'm fundraising for food banks, as SNAP is set to expire, send me a receipt for a $50 donation to your local food bank or to Share our Strength, and I’ll send you a book recommendation.
October 31, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Reupping this: I'm fundraising for food banks, as SNAP is set to expire, send me a receipt for a $50 donation to your local food bank or to Share our Strength, and I’ll send you a book recommendation.
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
wow you're telling me kat is smart enough to not discuss ongoing criminal litigation
I just had a Katie Porter moment with congressional candidate Kat Abughazaleh. The interview lasted 3 minutes.
October 30, 2025 at 8:39 PM
wow you're telling me kat is smart enough to not discuss ongoing criminal litigation
One of the curses of being a sci-fi nerd right now is having read the same books as half the tech people who are talking up their ideas of the future, and being stuck going "hang on I know what book that's from". Today, some examples of that.
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
Using Sci-Fi to Understand the World
No, not because it’s scary accurate, because half the people building the future have read the same books
open.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 1:34 PM
One of the curses of being a sci-fi nerd right now is having read the same books as half the tech people who are talking up their ideas of the future, and being stuck going "hang on I know what book that's from". Today, some examples of that.
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
I find this all kind of depressing- if it's all perfectly determined by external factors, then what does it matter what anyone does? If you believe this you should be hyper focusing on how to do policy that doesn't just get torn down immediately.
now here's a good take goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/a-mantra-f...
October 29, 2025 at 7:42 PM
I find this all kind of depressing- if it's all perfectly determined by external factors, then what does it matter what anyone does? If you believe this you should be hyper focusing on how to do policy that doesn't just get torn down immediately.
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
I don't want to get into a fight with Literally Everyone about the Welcome PAC paper, but I do have an interpretive note
the people writing it are really, really mad at Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer
they are not writing it to defend those people but to castigate them
the people writing it are really, really mad at Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer
they are not writing it to defend those people but to castigate them
October 28, 2025 at 4:46 PM
I don't want to get into a fight with Literally Everyone about the Welcome PAC paper, but I do have an interpretive note
the people writing it are really, really mad at Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer
they are not writing it to defend those people but to castigate them
the people writing it are really, really mad at Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer
they are not writing it to defend those people but to castigate them
In our housing poll, people also thought new housing would increase crime. The spectre of crime is present on so many issues (and voters do not seem to understand that crime is in fact down)
October 27, 2025 at 6:58 PM
In our housing poll, people also thought new housing would increase crime. The spectre of crime is present on so many issues (and voters do not seem to understand that crime is in fact down)
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
An interesting and serious research report that is worth reading! deciding-to-win.org
Example: On the persuasion/mobilization issue that so often divides factions within parties
Example: On the persuasion/mobilization issue that so often divides factions within parties
October 27, 2025 at 4:18 PM
An interesting and serious research report that is worth reading! deciding-to-win.org
Example: On the persuasion/mobilization issue that so often divides factions within parties
Example: On the persuasion/mobilization issue that so often divides factions within parties
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
Really interesting work (and thoughts on experimental design)!
After a huge post-election flip in economic perceptions, I thought Democrats and Republicans might be lying to pollsters to send a partisan message — but I was wrong!
New in the Journal of Experimental Political Science (open access): doi.org/10.1017/XPS....
New in the Journal of Experimental Political Science (open access): doi.org/10.1017/XPS....
October 27, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Really interesting work (and thoughts on experimental design)!
Reposted by Charlotte Swasey
I mean this is viscerally upsetting because it's really genuinely him treating the white house like it's his own personal property; he's the king and it's his palace. No other president ever thought like this, even if they were a fucking horrible person, because it goes against our founding creed
I'm not a West Wing obsessed lib or anything but the more I see pictures of this the more fucked up I think it is. It's like he cut off one of the hands of the Lincoln memorial with an angle grinder so he could add a big gun to it.
The Treasury Department instructed employees not to share to share photos of the demolition of parts of the White House’s East Wing
October 21, 2025 at 3:51 AM
I mean this is viscerally upsetting because it's really genuinely him treating the white house like it's his own personal property; he's the king and it's his palace. No other president ever thought like this, even if they were a fucking horrible person, because it goes against our founding creed
Huge day for the WAR/overperformance nerds. This piece gets into the weeds.
October 20, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Huge day for the WAR/overperformance nerds. This piece gets into the weeds.