Jeff Singer
@jeffsinger.bsky.social
Managing Editor at The Downballot. Email jeffsinger -at- the-downballot -dot- com
Pinned
Jeff Singer
@jeffsinger.bsky.social
· Apr 24
It's here! The Downballot is so stoked to share our calculations of the results of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts!
Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd
And much more in this 🧵 below!
Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd
And much more in this 🧵 below!
The Downballot's calculations of presidential election results by congressional district, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics
Our one-of-a-kind collection spans from 2008 to the present
the-db.co
This took a ton of work, but as Robert Caro says, "It’s not about how long it takes to make. It’s about whether it will endure."
Reposted by Jeff Singer
We only just learned of the loss of a singular figure in the world of elections, Joshua Spivak of the @recallelections.bsky.social blog. Absolutely no one in America knew more about recall elections, but more than that, Spivak was a true mensch and a lovely human being. May his memory be a blessing.
In memoriam: Joshua Spivak
scocablog.com
December 15, 2025 at 4:34 PM
We only just learned of the loss of a singular figure in the world of elections, Joshua Spivak of the @recallelections.bsky.social blog. Absolutely no one in America knew more about recall elections, but more than that, Spivak was a true mensch and a lovely human being. May his memory be a blessing.
Georgia Democrats won a big victory in a red legislative seat. Readers of The Downballot weren't caught off guard tonight!
December 10, 2025 at 3:46 AM
Georgia Democrats won a big victory in a red legislative seat. Readers of The Downballot weren't caught off guard tonight!
Reposted by Jeff Singer
BREAKING: Democrats have flipped a conservative state House seat in Georgia in yet another upset.
It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero.
Read our complete writeup here -->
It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero.
Read our complete writeup here -->
Breaking: Georgia Democrats flip conservative seat in yet another upset
That's 25 pickups for Democrats nationwide this year—and zero for Republicans
www.the-downballot.com
December 10, 2025 at 2:11 AM
BREAKING: Democrats have flipped a conservative state House seat in Georgia in yet another upset.
It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero.
Read our complete writeup here -->
It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero.
Read our complete writeup here -->
Reposted by Jeff Singer
I am extremely thankful James Talarico immediately spoke up with this response to the bizarre, too online overreaction to Jasmine Crockett declaring for the US Senate seat in Texas. #TXSen
Frankly however you feel about her, every Dem should be glad Crockett is running. A quick thread on why: (1/7)
Frankly however you feel about her, every Dem should be glad Crockett is running. A quick thread on why: (1/7)
@jamestalarico.bsky.social sent this video to his 10,000 volunteers:
“We will make the case for why we are best positioned to win this race — but we will always treat Congresswoman Crockett with the utmost respect. She is my colleague and she is a leader in our state. She deserves nothing less.”
“We will make the case for why we are best positioned to win this race — but we will always treat Congresswoman Crockett with the utmost respect. She is my colleague and she is a leader in our state. She deserves nothing less.”
December 9, 2025 at 4:00 AM
I am extremely thankful James Talarico immediately spoke up with this response to the bizarre, too online overreaction to Jasmine Crockett declaring for the US Senate seat in Texas. #TXSen
Frankly however you feel about her, every Dem should be glad Crockett is running. A quick thread on why: (1/7)
Frankly however you feel about her, every Dem should be glad Crockett is running. A quick thread on why: (1/7)
Reposted by Jeff Singer
The GOP is deeply unsettled by the big Dem showing in #TN07. On The Downballot podcast this week, @davidnir.com & @dwbeard.bsky.social explain why they're right to be.
We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!
We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!
GOP in disarray after Tennessee special
Listen now | And Lou Jacobson explains the Almanac of American Politics
www.the-downballot.com
December 4, 2025 at 3:13 PM
The GOP is deeply unsettled by the big Dem showing in #TN07. On The Downballot podcast this week, @davidnir.com & @dwbeard.bsky.social explain why they're right to be.
We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!
We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!
I also remember in April 2017 when the GOP only held onto Kansas' 4th District 52-46 months after Trump carried it 60-33. While some recognized this as early bad news for the GOP, lost of talk about how Democrats could just win "moral victories" instead of real victories. Not the case here!
It's remarkable to see the entire political landscape treat a 9-point margin in a special election as exactly what it is: a serious warning sign for the GOP.
This is a sea change. After Jon Ossoff lost #GA06, the media, the GOP, and even many Dems sniffily dismissed it. But it was a harbinger.
This is a sea change. After Jon Ossoff lost #GA06, the media, the GOP, and even many Dems sniffily dismissed it. But it was a harbinger.
December 3, 2025 at 4:31 PM
I also remember in April 2017 when the GOP only held onto Kansas' 4th District 52-46 months after Trump carried it 60-33. While some recognized this as early bad news for the GOP, lost of talk about how Democrats could just win "moral victories" instead of real victories. Not the case here!
Reposted by Jeff Singer
It's remarkable to see the entire political landscape treat a 9-point margin in a special election as exactly what it is: a serious warning sign for the GOP.
This is a sea change. After Jon Ossoff lost #GA06, the media, the GOP, and even many Dems sniffily dismissed it. But it was a harbinger.
This is a sea change. After Jon Ossoff lost #GA06, the media, the GOP, and even many Dems sniffily dismissed it. But it was a harbinger.
December 3, 2025 at 4:23 PM
It's remarkable to see the entire political landscape treat a 9-point margin in a special election as exactly what it is: a serious warning sign for the GOP.
This is a sea change. After Jon Ossoff lost #GA06, the media, the GOP, and even many Dems sniffily dismissed it. But it was a harbinger.
This is a sea change. After Jon Ossoff lost #GA06, the media, the GOP, and even many Dems sniffily dismissed it. But it was a harbinger.
Michael Whatley: "The reason I’m running for this race is because President Trump asked me to run in this race." Bet this quote will come up a few times in the next 11 months in the North Carolina Senate contest.
Embracing Trump and ‘America First,’ Michael Whatley files for NC’s Senate race
“I am not going to forget Western North Carolina,” said Whatley, who has faced scrutiny over his role in the Helene recovery.
www.newsobserver.com
December 3, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Michael Whatley: "The reason I’m running for this race is because President Trump asked me to run in this race." Bet this quote will come up a few times in the next 11 months in the North Carolina Senate contest.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
D.C. Councilmember Janeese Lewis George, who is a self-described democratic socialist, just became the first major candidate to join the race to succeed retiring Mayor Muriel Bowser. There's a whole lot more about Lewis George, as well as her most likely opponent, in our hot-off-the presses Digest.
Morning Digest: A major election year is unfolding in D.C. as the city is besieged by Trump
A high-profile race for mayor could pit democratic socialists against the establishment
www.the-downballot.com
December 1, 2025 at 1:06 PM
D.C. Councilmember Janeese Lewis George, who is a self-described democratic socialist, just became the first major candidate to join the race to succeed retiring Mayor Muriel Bowser. There's a whole lot more about Lewis George, as well as her most likely opponent, in our hot-off-the presses Digest.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Once again, we were way ahead of the curve! As Republicans panic about the #TN07 special that's now about 10 days away—and major Dem groups start spending—we flagged this race as one to watch in mid-August.
If you want to know about competitive special elections long before they happen, subscribe!
If you want to know about competitive special elections long before they happen, subscribe!
Morning Digest: Why Tennessee Democrats think they can pull a special election upset
One key reason: A GOP gerrymander that might've gotten a bit too greedy
www.the-downballot.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Once again, we were way ahead of the curve! As Republicans panic about the #TN07 special that's now about 10 days away—and major Dem groups start spending—we flagged this race as one to watch in mid-August.
If you want to know about competitive special elections long before they happen, subscribe!
If you want to know about competitive special elections long before they happen, subscribe!
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Rep. Eric Swalwell has joined the large field of Democrats running for governor of California.
East Bay Rep. Eric Swalwell Announces Run for California Governor | KQED
The East Bay congressman entered the 2026 campaign Thursday with an appearance on “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
www.kqed.org
November 21, 2025 at 5:04 AM
Rep. Eric Swalwell has joined the large field of Democrats running for governor of California.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Whoa: A federal court just barred Texas from using its new congressional map, drawn by the GOP to target Dems.
"Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 Map."
Court says the old map must be used in 2026. Appeals are certain. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
"Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 Map."
Court says the old map must be used in 2026. Appeals are certain. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
November 18, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Whoa: A federal court just barred Texas from using its new congressional map, drawn by the GOP to target Dems.
"Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 Map."
Court says the old map must be used in 2026. Appeals are certain. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
"Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 Map."
Court says the old map must be used in 2026. Appeals are certain. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Read about this race before someone tells you that "nobody" is paying attention to it!
Georgia Democrats have a chance on Dec. 9 to flip a legislative seat that backed Donald Trump by 13 points—but that Democrats won by even more last month in two statewide races.
Morning Digest: Georgia Democrats could flip this red seat in a December special election
After two massive statewide wins last week, the wind is at their backs
www.the-downballot.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Read about this race before someone tells you that "nobody" is paying attention to it!
Louisiana politics: Very often bad, very rarely boring.
Former Louisiana House Speaker Clay Schexnayder indicted for theft of 'rare state artifact'
He was indicted after an ancient cypress board went missing from his office,
www.nola.com
November 12, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Louisiana politics: Very often bad, very rarely boring.
@votebeat.org is very lucky to have the one and only @baseballot.bsky.social
New job alert! Today I started as the new managing editor of @votebeat.org, a nonprofit news site that covers election administration and voting rights issues.
November 11, 2025 at 5:20 PM
@votebeat.org is very lucky to have the one and only @baseballot.bsky.social
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Democratic Rep. Al Green, 78, will face a much younger incumbent in next year's primary for Texas' new 18th District. He just won't learn who until next year.
Morning Digest: Al Green will run again, setting up clash with much younger opponent
The winner of a special election next year will immediately face off against the longtime congressman
www.the-downballot.com
November 11, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Democratic Rep. Al Green, 78, will face a much younger incumbent in next year's primary for Texas' new 18th District. He just won't learn who until next year.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Most retrospectives of Pelosi’s career focus on her time as leader of the House. At The Downballot, we reach back much further to explain how she *got* to the House in the first place.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
Nancy Pelosi is retiring after a groundbreaking electoral career that, as we detail in our new Morning Digest, almost didn't happen.
Morning Digest: Nancy Pelosi, first woman speaker, retires after historic career
The longtime congresswoman left an indelible mark on San Francisco—and America
www.the-downballot.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Most retrospectives of Pelosi’s career focus on her time as leader of the House. At The Downballot, we reach back much further to explain how she *got* to the House in the first place.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
if you want to understand how Pelosi got her start in politics, read @jeffsinger.bsky.social’s deep dive.
One of my favorite discoveries while writing this was the New York Times' nondescript headline following Pelosi's first general election win: "DEMOCRAT ELECTED IN SAN FRANCISCO." Her retirement generated far different headlines!
November 7, 2025 at 3:30 PM
One of my favorite discoveries while writing this was the New York Times' nondescript headline following Pelosi's first general election win: "DEMOCRAT ELECTED IN SAN FRANCISCO." Her retirement generated far different headlines!
Reposted by Jeff Singer
For the Netroots community, for everyone who knew @arjunjaikumar.bsky.social when he was a guy posting on DailyKos and SSP as "brownsox" who loved writing about elections, today is a joyous day as he's been elected to the Cambridge School Board with the strong backing of the local teachers' union.
November 6, 2025 at 5:57 PM
For the Netroots community, for everyone who knew @arjunjaikumar.bsky.social when he was a guy posting on DailyKos and SSP as "brownsox" who loved writing about elections, today is a joyous day as he's been elected to the Cambridge School Board with the strong backing of the local teachers' union.
The next time there's an article about how voter registration numbers are an omen for the next election remember: This piece ran two days before New Jersey Democrats pulled off a blowout win.
These 13 N.J. towns saw a surprise surge in Republican voter registrations
Republicans made huge gains in some traditionally Democratic strongholds in New Jersey in recent years. See the list.
www.nj.com
November 5, 2025 at 5:18 PM
The next time there's an article about how voter registration numbers are an omen for the next election remember: This piece ran two days before New Jersey Democrats pulled off a blowout win.
Reposted by Jeff Singer
It wasn't just the marquee races last night: Democrats racked up massive victories across the country and far down the ballot, pretty much everywhere.
We recap *dozens* of elections in today's newsletter—almost a clean sweep for the Dems. Get caught up here!
We recap *dozens* of elections in today's newsletter—almost a clean sweep for the Dems. Get caught up here!
Morning Digest: Voters deliver massive wins to Democrats in rejection of Trump and GOP
From coast to coast, Democrats ran up the score—and ran ahead of the polls
www.the-downballot.com
November 5, 2025 at 4:31 PM
It wasn't just the marquee races last night: Democrats racked up massive victories across the country and far down the ballot, pretty much everywhere.
We recap *dozens* of elections in today's newsletter—almost a clean sweep for the Dems. Get caught up here!
We recap *dozens* of elections in today's newsletter—almost a clean sweep for the Dems. Get caught up here!
Reposted by Jeff Singer
Tuned into @the-downballot.com's election night stream for most of the night open.substack.com/live-stream/...
LIVE NOW: Election night live coverage, with The Downballot & Strength In Numbers
David Nir on Substack
open.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 12:23 AM
Tuned into @the-downballot.com's election night stream for most of the night open.substack.com/live-stream/...
Reposted by Jeff Singer
As data nerds know, MS is one of the worst states for calculating presidential election results by district ... but the indefatigable @jeffsinger.bsky.social & @donnermaps.bsky.social teamed up to get it done for Tuesday's big batch of redistricting-induced specials! docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 3, 2025 at 9:05 PM
As data nerds know, MS is one of the worst states for calculating presidential election results by district ... but the indefatigable @jeffsinger.bsky.social & @donnermaps.bsky.social teamed up to get it done for Tuesday's big batch of redistricting-induced specials! docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Our Babka prediction contest study guide is now live!
We obsessively track overlooked elections all year so that we can bring you special reports like this one—our guide to the top races of 2025.
We go way beyond NJ/VA/CA/NYC to highlight races in PA, NH, GA, ME, TX, and more!
Find our complete preview of 40 top races here -->
We go way beyond NJ/VA/CA/NYC to highlight races in PA, NH, GA, ME, TX, and more!
Find our complete preview of 40 top races here -->
The Downballot's 2025 election preview
We go way beyond Virginia and New Jersey to spotlight dozens of races nationwide
www.the-downballot.com
November 3, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Our Babka prediction contest study guide is now live!