Matthew Lebo
LightNews LightNews
banner
matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo
@matthewlebo.bsky.social
970 followers 580 following 370 posts

American politics professor in Canada at the University of Western Ontario.

Videos
Political science 38%
Economics 27%
Posts Replies Media Videos

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 2d
In a week he’ll be bragging about it.
acyn.bsky.social Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · 2d
Reporter: Will you apologize for that racist video?

Trump: *walks away*

Reposted by Will Jennings, Rosemary A. Joyce, Trevon D. Logan , and 2 more

acyn.bsky.social
Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · 2d
Reporter: Will you apologize for that racist video?

Trump: *walks away*

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 2d
It would take like 2-3 quick questions to get Trump to admit on camera he posted that video. e.g.
R: Jimmy Kimmel says you're too dumb to write your own posts.
T: Kimmel has terrible ratings.
R: So you just write the short ones?
T: Every single one.

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 4d
Well, I like democracy and make do with the weather.

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 4d
oh, please. Sunshine isn't everything.

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 6d
Yes, in November 2026 and/or 2028. My general point is there is no downward trajectory except that he's lost his bandwagon people.

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 6d
Yes, Trump slipped overall and on every issue since January 2025. He started with his base + optimism from non-MAGA Republicans + the short-memory of others. ok, he lost the last two. But is there anything he can do to lose his base (~40%)? In 10 years, nope.

Reposted by Matthew Lebo, David Darmofal

maddow.bsky.social
Rachel Maddow @maddow.bsky.social · 6d
Republican voters...

www.ms.now/rachel-maddo...

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 10d
To get to 50% approval, he'd need to perform at an 88. There are some groups that will not give up on him (e.g. White evangelical protestants (thx @daviddarmofal.bsky.social) or ever come on board.

Reposted by Will Jennings, David Darmofal

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 10d
This is how I'm thinking about Trump's approval rating. Theoretically, his actual performance could vary between 0 (nuking all American cities and towns) and 100 (peace, prosperity, curing cancer). I put a dot at his lowest point, 34% after Jan 6 '21. With performance at 50, he'd be 45.5% approval.

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 10d
yes, that was my point, but "It basically gets exponentially harder to make the number drop the lower you go." is a much better way of saying it. It took an insurrection to get Trump from 40 to 34 last time, and that didn't last long.

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 10d
It was 39.3 on December 6th.

Reposted by David Darmofal

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 11d
The "bottom falling out" or a "tipping point" implies that the process of Trump losing support is speeding up. But imagine that each person he loses is his least supportive approver, leaving only more devoted people in the approve column. The next person is a little harder to shake loose.
daviddarmofal.bsky.social David Darmofal @daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 11d
I just want to reiterate what @matthewlebo.bsky.social said the other day because our job is to look at data impartially. Honestly, 44% is not a terrible number for Trump. I'm not saying that's where it should be imho. But if you're arguing the bottom's falling out, you're not following the data.
polltracker.bsky.social Poll Tracker 📊 @polltracker.bsky.social · 11d
Fox News poll

Trump approval
🟢 Approve 44%
🔴 Disapprove 56%

Do you favor or oppose abolishing ICE
🟢 Favor 36%
🔴 Oppose 42%

static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/...

Reposted by David Darmofal

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 11d
Fiftyplusone has Trump at a new low of 39.0 today. He was at 39.3 on December 6th. He's doing a lot of unpopular things, but his supporters have a long history of getting over it.

fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

Reposted by Matthew Lebo

daviddarmofal.bsky.social
David Darmofal @daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 11d
I just want to reiterate what @matthewlebo.bsky.social said the other day because our job is to look at data impartially. Honestly, 44% is not a terrible number for Trump. I'm not saying that's where it should be imho. But if you're arguing the bottom's falling out, you're not following the data.
polltracker.bsky.social Poll Tracker 📊 @polltracker.bsky.social · 11d
Fox News poll

Trump approval
🟢 Approve 44%
🔴 Disapprove 56%

Do you favor or oppose abolishing ICE
🟢 Favor 36%
🔴 Oppose 42%

static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/...
static.foxnews.com

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 13d
Madel breaking with the GOP is another example of a Republican exiting the party without changing it; e.g. Cheney, Kinzinger, Romney, and Greene. To transform it, the Republican Party needs people to break with Trump, remain in the party, and survive reelection.
jljacobson.bsky.social Jodi Jacobson @jljacobson.bsky.social · 13d
MN Gubernatorial candidate Chris Madel withdrew this morning from the race, saying "he cannot support the national GOP’s “stated retribution on the citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so.”

www.startribune.com/chris-madel-...
Chris Madel ends GOP bid for governor, says he can’t support federal ‘retribution’ against Minnesota
His exit comes as some other Republicans have started to distance themselves from the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in the state.
www.startribune.com

Reposted by Tom Clark, Matthew Lebo, Nathan P. Kalmoe

jljacobson.bsky.social
Jodi Jacobson @jljacobson.bsky.social · 13d
MN Gubernatorial candidate Chris Madel withdrew this morning from the race, saying "he cannot support the national GOP’s “stated retribution on the citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so.”

www.startribune.com/chris-madel-...
Chris Madel ends GOP bid for governor, says he can’t support federal ‘retribution’ against Minnesota
His exit comes as some other Republicans have started to distance themselves from the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in the state.
www.startribune.com

Reposted by Elizabeth Sharrow, Matthew Lebo, John H. Knox , and 1 more

danielschwarcz.bsky.social
Daniel Schwarcz @danielschwarcz.bsky.social · 14d
Proud to be one of 65 University of Minnesota Law faculty who signed this open letter condemning the federal government’s ongoing and lawless campaign of fear, intimidation, and violence against Minnesotans. docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Open Letter to Minnesota Law CommunityJanuary 25
January 25, 2026 To the Minnesota Law Community: We, the undersigned faculty of the University of Minnesota Law School, write in our individual capacities to address the federal government's ongoin...
docs.google.com

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 15d
No bullshit about fentanyl or unfair milk prices anymore. Trump and Carney gave speeches, Trump's was panned, Carney's was praised, so 100% tariffs for Canada. He doesn't just want to insult the world, he wants to be praised for it.

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Rebecca Solnit, Philip Nel , and 14 more

onestpress.onestnetwork.com
Olga Nesterova @onestpress.onestnetwork.com · 16d
WHO removing Us Flag

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 16d
The Americans most responsible for vaccinations dropping and all the death and misery from that are RFK Jr. and the 52 Republican senators who confirmed him. At best, Cassidy is the 53 worst vaccination defender in the USA. What an idiotic headline, @nytimes.com

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 16d
Getting to 40% was to be expected. Holding steady with unpopular policies is a sign of the strength of his base. Maybe at 32% some things change but he's never been there and that would require a big chunk of his base saying "Hey dems, you're right, he's doing a bad job. 4/4

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 16d
Weaker compared to what? Probably, he's stronger than 1st term: his cabinet would sooner go to a Berlin bunker with him than invoke the 25th; 7 Rep senators voted to convict in 2021 but 4 are gone now; the military and DOJ have been hollowed out; negative partisanship is stronger than ever.... 3/4

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 16d
He got 49.9% in '24 and lost his reluctant voters.

History is not so helpful. Partisanship rules now. 60% is impossible. 30% would take a collapse with T's base. He could stand in the middle of 5th avenue and shoot everyone and maybe not lose any approvers.

Is he weaker at 40%? No.... 2/4

Reposted by David Darmofal

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 16d
How else to interpret an approval "collapse"?

Meaningful would 1) be below his natural level in a polarized US, 2) make actors with power to stop him change behavior.

What's natural level for T? 0-5 for dems, 80-90 for reps, 30-40 for inds. Overall, 35-43.

He's been steady at 40 for months. 1/4

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 17d
Matt Lebo, on Carney standing up to the bully:

“If everybody takes a step forward then you’ve done something successfully and banded the kids together to be a united front against the bullying,” he said. “And if all the kids take one step back, then you’re screwed.”

www.thestar.com/politics/fed...
Donald Trump’s turbulent day in Davos ends with hope of ‘forever’ deal on Greenland
The U.S. president has said America must acquire the Danish island to protect against national and international security threats.
www.thestar.com

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 19d
If you want an example of what Republican senators would do if they weren't so worried about reelection, here you go. Thom Tillis is retiring and this is as brave as he gets.
atrupar.com Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 19d
Tillis: "To be clear -- I'm not critical of the president. I'm critical of the bad advice he's getting on Greenland."

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Mark D. White, Rosemary A. Joyce , and 11 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 19d
Tillis: "To be clear -- I'm not critical of the president. I'm critical of the bad advice he's getting on Greenland."

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 21d
Can be just survey error. But also Trump voters can be unhappy for a bit and naturally revert back to approval when any outrage fades. Here's Gallup by party for a few months.

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 21d
Partisanship and negative partisanship: republican and Trump identifiers hate democrats enough that they will not stop approving of him no matter what he does. Even if they don't approve of specific policies, they approve of Trump.