Matthew Lebo
@matthewlebo.bsky.social
American politics professor in Canada at the University of Western Ontario.
A mama lasagna and four babies.
November 9, 2025 at 11:02 PM
A mama lasagna and four babies.
BLS report that was due this morning didn't come out. The ADP estimate is that private employment in the US went down 32,000 jobs in September. There were also big downward revisions for previous month. Preventing the official release of bad economic news is a big shutdown bonus for Trump.
October 3, 2025 at 1:07 PM
BLS report that was due this morning didn't come out. The ADP estimate is that private employment in the US went down 32,000 jobs in September. There were also big downward revisions for previous month. Preventing the official release of bad economic news is a big shutdown bonus for Trump.
U.S. job growth May-July is 106,000. Except for the Covid jobs crash (-20M in April 2020), that's the worst three month stretch since Summer 2010.
August 1, 2025 at 2:06 PM
U.S. job growth May-July is 106,000. Except for the Covid jobs crash (-20M in April 2020), that's the worst three month stretch since Summer 2010.
"From this day forward, our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world."
Trump, Jan. 20, 2025.
Here's your flourishing with negative GDP growth:
Trump, Jan. 20, 2025.
Here's your flourishing with negative GDP growth:
April 30, 2025 at 12:38 PM
"From this day forward, our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world."
Trump, Jan. 20, 2025.
Here's your flourishing with negative GDP growth:
Trump, Jan. 20, 2025.
Here's your flourishing with negative GDP growth:
$Carney_{t-1}$: "I'm going to govern in Econometrics."
I am so ready for that.
I am so ready for that.
April 29, 2025 at 2:09 PM
$Carney_{t-1}$: "I'm going to govern in Econometrics."
I am so ready for that.
I am so ready for that.
Greg Stillson comes to mind.
April 21, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Greg Stillson comes to mind.
Elise Stefanik and Marco Rubio discuss the career advantages of sucking up to Trump.
March 28, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Elise Stefanik and Marco Rubio discuss the career advantages of sucking up to Trump.
See how easy it is to get the world to move on from a massive security scandal?
March 27, 2025 at 5:22 PM
See how easy it is to get the world to move on from a massive security scandal?
I honestly think he's going to do this with the Canadian border very soon.
March 24, 2025 at 10:27 PM
I honestly think he's going to do this with the Canadian border very soon.
The lesson for the Liberals from 1993 is to call an election fast before people remember how sick they are of the party in power.
March 14, 2025 at 6:44 PM
The lesson for the Liberals from 1993 is to call an election fast before people remember how sick they are of the party in power.
Just a car going through a transition period.
March 13, 2025 at 1:14 AM
Just a car going through a transition period.
I was thinking more like a person obliviously over-estimating his own importance and meeting with someone determined to destroy his country, because it makes him feel like a big shot.
c.files.bbci.co.uk/11B1C/produc...
c.files.bbci.co.uk/11B1C/produc...
March 12, 2025 at 5:35 PM
I was thinking more like a person obliviously over-estimating his own importance and meeting with someone determined to destroy his country, because it makes him feel like a big shot.
c.files.bbci.co.uk/11B1C/produc...
c.files.bbci.co.uk/11B1C/produc...
Let's welcome the NASDAQ, belatedly, to the "Holy crap, he's not joking" crowd.
March 10, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Let's welcome the NASDAQ, belatedly, to the "Holy crap, he's not joking" crowd.
Please share! Have an MA student or current PhD student who wants/needs to get out of the US (or not go there)? Western is accepting PhD late apps. Info here: politicalscience.uwo.ca/graduate/gra...
Apply here: politicalscience.uwo.ca/graduate/pro...
Or contact Grad Chair: [email protected]
Apply here: politicalscience.uwo.ca/graduate/pro...
Or contact Grad Chair: [email protected]
March 6, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Please share! Have an MA student or current PhD student who wants/needs to get out of the US (or not go there)? Western is accepting PhD late apps. Info here: politicalscience.uwo.ca/graduate/gra...
Apply here: politicalscience.uwo.ca/graduate/pro...
Or contact Grad Chair: [email protected]
Apply here: politicalscience.uwo.ca/graduate/pro...
Or contact Grad Chair: [email protected]
Approval/disapproval streams crossed for the first time today. Expect approval to sink only very very slowly. Trump voters are much more invested this time compared to 2017 when he hit the 30s by March. Knowing all about Trump, '24 voters will rationalize a ton before admitting a mistake.
March 5, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Approval/disapproval streams crossed for the first time today. Expect approval to sink only very very slowly. Trump voters are much more invested this time compared to 2017 when he hit the 30s by March. Knowing all about Trump, '24 voters will rationalize a ton before admitting a mistake.
Duverger's Law says that first-past-the-post systems lead to two party systems. Duverger must not have know many Canadians.
February 28, 2025 at 3:29 AM
Duverger's Law says that first-past-the-post systems lead to two party systems. Duverger must not have know many Canadians.
2017 diverged quickly but approval settled into the low 40s soon after.
February 20, 2025 at 12:46 PM
2017 diverged quickly but approval settled into the low 40s soon after.
And/or that two major parties refuse to discuss an alliance to stop competing with each other. E.g. these two (AOC and Manchin) were in the same party in order to beat Republicans.
Ideologically, they are far more distant than the NDP is from the Liberals. www.google.com/url?sa=i&url...
Ideologically, they are far more distant than the NDP is from the Liberals. www.google.com/url?sa=i&url...
February 4, 2025 at 2:44 PM
And/or that two major parties refuse to discuss an alliance to stop competing with each other. E.g. these two (AOC and Manchin) were in the same party in order to beat Republicans.
Ideologically, they are far more distant than the NDP is from the Liberals. www.google.com/url?sa=i&url...
Ideologically, they are far more distant than the NDP is from the Liberals. www.google.com/url?sa=i&url...
Canada has some big advantages in a trade war - e.g. cooperation across parties and levels of government for smart strategic retaliatory tariffs. Party discipline of a parliamentary system helps. Only one real red province but is otherwise united. Very few will blame Canadian leaders --> unity.
February 3, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Canada has some big advantages in a trade war - e.g. cooperation across parties and levels of government for smart strategic retaliatory tariffs. Party discipline of a parliamentary system helps. Only one real red province but is otherwise united. Very few will blame Canadian leaders --> unity.
What's the demonstrated weakness? Is it the second much smaller headline under the big one?
January 27, 2025 at 5:11 PM
What's the demonstrated weakness? Is it the second much smaller headline under the big one?
You miss 100% of the favours from the authoritarians you don’t suck up to.
January 21, 2025 at 6:59 PM
You miss 100% of the favours from the authoritarians you don’t suck up to.
Jagmeet Singh is Jagmeet Singhing again. He doesn't mention anything he disagrees with the Liberals on - just that they haven't done the job. That's not a reason to have two separate political parties.
cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_ful...
cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_ful...
January 6, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Jagmeet Singh is Jagmeet Singhing again. He doesn't mention anything he disagrees with the Liberals on - just that they haven't done the job. That's not a reason to have two separate political parties.
cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_ful...
cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_ful...
Media in Canada and elsewhere are working hard to find people like Shark Tank Schmuck here to make a Russia-Ukraine type invasion sound like a corporate merger.
December 28, 2024 at 11:54 PM
Media in Canada and elsewhere are working hard to find people like Shark Tank Schmuck here to make a Russia-Ukraine type invasion sound like a corporate merger.
How to make a Negroni.
December 24, 2024 at 2:45 PM
How to make a Negroni.
Hey CNN, the word you're looking for is Lebensraum.
December 24, 2024 at 2:00 PM
Hey CNN, the word you're looking for is Lebensraum.