Simon Tilford
@simontilford.bsky.social
Director, Oracle Partnership. Trying to make sense of the future.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
On the 70th anniversary of the Montgomery Bus Boycott, I hope
folks remember that:
1) It was the fruit of over a decade of planning and activism and
2) The boycotters endured 381 straight days — every morning, every evening, every weekend — of threats, harassment and sometimes bombings.
folks remember that:
1) It was the fruit of over a decade of planning and activism and
2) The boycotters endured 381 straight days — every morning, every evening, every weekend — of threats, harassment and sometimes bombings.
December 1, 2025 at 5:42 PM
On the 70th anniversary of the Montgomery Bus Boycott, I hope
folks remember that:
1) It was the fruit of over a decade of planning and activism and
2) The boycotters endured 381 straight days — every morning, every evening, every weekend — of threats, harassment and sometimes bombings.
folks remember that:
1) It was the fruit of over a decade of planning and activism and
2) The boycotters endured 381 straight days — every morning, every evening, every weekend — of threats, harassment and sometimes bombings.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
This is the hidden in plain sight heffalump trap in the Budget - Mahmood’s plan will deepsix whatever fiscal headroom the Chancellor has.
There is an actual interesting little deceit in the budget, namely ther have the OBR still forecasting based on increasing net immigration back to 300-350k whilst the Home Secretary is promising to bring it down from 200k, which does dissolve about half the headroom, but somehow we're doing vibes.
Think this is exactly right - political journalism that is completely abstracted from policy, which was not the norm before 2017, has become the default. Impossible to have a serious attempt to either shrink what the state does or widen the tax base (have to do at least one) on that basis.
December 1, 2025 at 4:53 PM
This is the hidden in plain sight heffalump trap in the Budget - Mahmood’s plan will deepsix whatever fiscal headroom the Chancellor has.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
This story is starting to make me feel I’m going slightly mad - maybe RR overdid the gloom, but the tax rises are paying for a) the welfare U-turns b) the £10bn-plus increase in headroom c) scrapping the two child limit d) bits of other spending eg higher local gov costs 🤷🏻♀️
December 1, 2025 at 8:15 AM
This story is starting to make me feel I’m going slightly mad - maybe RR overdid the gloom, but the tax rises are paying for a) the welfare U-turns b) the £10bn-plus increase in headroom c) scrapping the two child limit d) bits of other spending eg higher local gov costs 🤷🏻♀️
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Rightly lots of debates about growth this weekend - rightly because it was low productivity growth that saw wages entirely flatline during the 2010s.
November 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Rightly lots of debates about growth this weekend - rightly because it was low productivity growth that saw wages entirely flatline during the 2010s.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Here's this week's column. Please - please - can we stop talking about migration in a way that's completely detached from the facts? www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Net migration is plummeting. Why can’t Labour say so? | Heather Stewart
An honest debate is needed on this polarising topic as sectors such as social care struggle with recruitment
www.theguardian.com
November 30, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Here's this week's column. Please - please - can we stop talking about migration in a way that's completely detached from the facts? www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Reposted by Simon Tilford
It’s an indictment of our media that more time is being spent on whether Reeves lied about the need to raise taxes than on the actual substance of the policies announced on Wednesday.
November 30, 2025 at 9:15 AM
It’s an indictment of our media that more time is being spent on whether Reeves lied about the need to raise taxes than on the actual substance of the policies announced on Wednesday.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
How the right-wing newspapers still manage to dictate BBC coverage.
Almost all of the Beeb's big post-Budget interview with the Chancellor devoted to asking whether she is a liar.
Next to nothing on any of the big measures announced this week
www.adambienkov.co.uk/p/the-real-b...
Almost all of the Beeb's big post-Budget interview with the Chancellor devoted to asking whether she is a liar.
Next to nothing on any of the big measures announced this week
www.adambienkov.co.uk/p/the-real-b...
The Real 'Benefits Street' Protecting Britain's Wealthiest
The sheer scale of outrage about plans to lift children out of poverty, by taxing millionaire homeowners, tells you everything you need to know about the priorities of the British press
www.adambienkov.co.uk
November 30, 2025 at 9:36 AM
How the right-wing newspapers still manage to dictate BBC coverage.
Almost all of the Beeb's big post-Budget interview with the Chancellor devoted to asking whether she is a liar.
Next to nothing on any of the big measures announced this week
www.adambienkov.co.uk/p/the-real-b...
Almost all of the Beeb's big post-Budget interview with the Chancellor devoted to asking whether she is a liar.
Next to nothing on any of the big measures announced this week
www.adambienkov.co.uk/p/the-real-b...
Reposted by Simon Tilford
On every public policy committee I sat on - gambling, drugs, animal experiments, law of homicide and others - someone would ask ‘But what would the Daily Mail say about our recommendations?’ I now regret that we never gave the right answer. ‘We shouldn’t care.’
November 30, 2025 at 7:37 AM
On every public policy committee I sat on - gambling, drugs, animal experiments, law of homicide and others - someone would ask ‘But what would the Daily Mail say about our recommendations?’ I now regret that we never gave the right answer. ‘We shouldn’t care.’
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Once more I remind people that there are wind turbines on the shore of Lake Garda and the Italians seem to survive and even thrive there.
Monty Don's reputation is indestructible (and long may that continue). On a close reading, nowhere is it specified what the invented threat to Rousham Gardens comprises. Even 'Country Life' says the bomber base is 2km away and there's an attractive village in between. It's all a bit Hackney Marshes
'One of the truly great gardens of the world' is at risk of having its vistas and tranquility blighted forever
The views from Rousham, the birthplace of the English landscape-garden movement, are at risk of development if plans for the nearby former RAF Upper Heyford Air Force base get the go-ahead.
www.countrylife.co.uk
November 29, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Once more I remind people that there are wind turbines on the shore of Lake Garda and the Italians seem to survive and even thrive there.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Budget 2025: This is how you lose the world iandunt.substack.com/p/budget-202...
November 28, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Budget 2025: This is how you lose the world iandunt.substack.com/p/budget-202...
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Persuasive letter on populism as a cognitive short-cut in the @financialtimes.com
November 29, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Persuasive letter on populism as a cognitive short-cut in the @financialtimes.com
Reposted by Simon Tilford
In 10 days Trump has slurred 4 female reporters as “Horrible” “Piggy,” “Ugly” and “Stupid.” people.com/trump-snaps-...
Trump Snaps at CBS Reporter on Thanksgiving When She Questions His Comments on National Guard Shooting: 'Are You a Stupid Person?'
President Donald Trump snapped at CBS News' Nancy Cordes when she questioned him about something he said during a Thanksgiving press conference, asking her, 'Are you a stupid person?'
people.com
November 28, 2025 at 7:32 PM
In 10 days Trump has slurred 4 female reporters as “Horrible” “Piggy,” “Ugly” and “Stupid.” people.com/trump-snaps-...
Reposted by Simon Tilford
I don't think it's all of it by any measure but I do absolutely believe that the political media's raging anti-intellectual streak has got worse with time and has ended up influencing the way MPs talk, and what they choose to talk/think about
I don’t think this is a “politicians have got dumber” issue for the most part. If you look at the *actual CVs* of previous cohorts of MPs, their background is not radically different when you account for, you know, the fact the economy is different! It is primarily a media and ecosystem issue.
We have got to make politics intellectual again. It is the only way that societies thrive is when politicians have the capability to actually think and reflect deeply:
November 28, 2025 at 3:09 PM
I don't think it's all of it by any measure but I do absolutely believe that the political media's raging anti-intellectual streak has got worse with time and has ended up influencing the way MPs talk, and what they choose to talk/think about
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Are there any other countries whose "patriotic" publications pay foreigners to write about what a hellhole they think their country is?
November 28, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Are there any other countries whose "patriotic" publications pay foreigners to write about what a hellhole they think their country is?
Reposted by Simon Tilford
The Blue Labour right have become the Militant of 2025 - a tiny but hyperactive and densely networked sect working relentlessly to drag Labour towards their niche pursuits and away from the values and priorities of core Labour voters.
November 28, 2025 at 10:44 AM
The Blue Labour right have become the Militant of 2025 - a tiny but hyperactive and densely networked sect working relentlessly to drag Labour towards their niche pursuits and away from the values and priorities of core Labour voters.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Kinnock voice - "I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions....and you end up in the grotesque chaos of a Labour government, a *Labour* government, rejecting visas for homeless 8 yr olds trying to joing their parents"
November 28, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Kinnock voice - "I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions....and you end up in the grotesque chaos of a Labour government, a *Labour* government, rejecting visas for homeless 8 yr olds trying to joing their parents"
Reposted by Simon Tilford
If a drug was having this societal effect it would be banned within a week. Across the world, politicians are - through their inaction - completely abdicating their responsibilities to civil democratic discourse.
November 28, 2025 at 12:16 PM
If a drug was having this societal effect it would be banned within a week. Across the world, politicians are - through their inaction - completely abdicating their responsibilities to civil democratic discourse.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving.
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
UK net migration falls sharply with drop in arrivals for work and study
Provisional figures for net migration to the UK show levels dropped to 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving.
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Even worse than it seems, given that Irish GDP figures are essentially meaningless.
On the surface, Eurozone growth looks pretty decent all things considered. But when looking under the hood, the picture worsens considerably:
- Ireland (4% of the EZ) accounts for 40% of growth
- Spain (10%) accounts for 20%
- Half of the Eurozone is growing at 0.5% or below
- Ireland (4% of the EZ) accounts for 40% of growth
- Spain (10%) accounts for 20%
- Half of the Eurozone is growing at 0.5% or below
November 27, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Even worse than it seems, given that Irish GDP figures are essentially meaningless.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
The government figuring this out slowly over the coming two years is going to be quite something to behold.
I think the government meant to cut net migration but have accidentally overshot the target by a lot. They haven’t realised this yet.
November 27, 2025 at 4:14 PM
The government figuring this out slowly over the coming two years is going to be quite something to behold.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Immigration is collapsing, and will continue to do so - perhaps even more quickly. We need to reverse engines and encourage it, right away.
November 27, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Immigration is collapsing, and will continue to do so - perhaps even more quickly. We need to reverse engines and encourage it, right away.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
1/2 FT Alphaville on Tether & Gold: "All that’s needed now is to convince risk-averse investors that their fears are best expressed through buying blockchain tokens from a privately owned, El Salvador-licensed crypto firm...
November 25, 2025 at 7:29 PM
1/2 FT Alphaville on Tether & Gold: "All that’s needed now is to convince risk-averse investors that their fears are best expressed through buying blockchain tokens from a privately owned, El Salvador-licensed crypto firm...
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Gove has been an extremely poisonous influence on our politics. Undermining expert consensus on Brexit [had enough of experts, etc] and lying his way through the whole process in the aftermath of the Referendum. A travesty that he is on this panel of judges assessing political writing.
I’m a past winner of the Orwell Prize & won partly because I exposed Vote Leave’s unlawful activities.
Michael Gove was its co-convener & refused to answer a single q. He’s now a judge of the prize & our world is truly one that Orwell would recognise
bylinetimes.com/2025/11/25/m...
Michael Gove was its co-convener & refused to answer a single q. He’s now a judge of the prize & our world is truly one that Orwell would recognise
bylinetimes.com/2025/11/25/m...
Michael Gove Made Orwell Prize Judge Despite Record of Attacking Journalists and Dodging Scrutiny
Critics say "Orwell would have enjoyed the irony" of the former Conservative minister's appointment
bylinetimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Gove has been an extremely poisonous influence on our politics. Undermining expert consensus on Brexit [had enough of experts, etc] and lying his way through the whole process in the aftermath of the Referendum. A travesty that he is on this panel of judges assessing political writing.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Glasman has such a sepia-tinted view of class, and zero ability to recognise the way economy and society has changed - in good and bad ways. Precarity, the new working class - there is lots of good thinking about this. To call him a third-rate theorist would be an insult to third-rate theorists.
November 25, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Glasman has such a sepia-tinted view of class, and zero ability to recognise the way economy and society has changed - in good and bad ways. Precarity, the new working class - there is lots of good thinking about this. To call him a third-rate theorist would be an insult to third-rate theorists.
Reposted by Simon Tilford
Well that's one way to shed your "Dr. Doom" nickname.
www.ft.com/content/3af6...
www.ft.com/content/3af6...
November 25, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Well that's one way to shed your "Dr. Doom" nickname.
www.ft.com/content/3af6...
www.ft.com/content/3af6...