Matt Craddock
@mattcraddock.com
Research Software Engineer at The Alan Turing Institute, UK. Former cognitive neuroscientist
Reposted by Matt Craddock
The default prior for the intercept in both {rstanarm} and {brms} are very wide.
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
November 18, 2025 at 2:01 PM
The default prior for the intercept in both {rstanarm} and {brms} are very wide.
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0.
Always check your priors!
#rstats
Reposted by Matt Craddock
Reposted by Matt Craddock
Imagine having a thumping majority in parliament and deciding to use it for something as squalid as this.
November 17, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Imagine having a thumping majority in parliament and deciding to use it for something as squalid as this.
Reposted by Matt Craddock
when I hear Starmer speak about immigration and race he's spitting in the face of the Labour voters I knew growing up in Manchester, who put themselves on the line against the National Front - and often the police - in the 1970s and 1980s.
Ultimately the vision of britain that starmer has is profoundly cynical, nasty and just not true. He thinks that abidicating his responsibility in showing that another option is maturity and doing the difficult thing, but he's literally just creating the hateful country he is so afraid of
November 16, 2025 at 3:57 PM
when I hear Starmer speak about immigration and race he's spitting in the face of the Labour voters I knew growing up in Manchester, who put themselves on the line against the National Front - and often the police - in the 1970s and 1980s.
Reposted by Matt Craddock
"The cat scratched my groin when he saw that woman from Strictly"
"Claudia Winkleman?"
"No, man, but it was close"
"Claudia Winkleman?"
"No, man, but it was close"
November 15, 2025 at 6:57 PM
"The cat scratched my groin when he saw that woman from Strictly"
"Claudia Winkleman?"
"No, man, but it was close"
"Claudia Winkleman?"
"No, man, but it was close"
Reposted by Matt Craddock
Reposted by Matt Craddock
The problem with reunion shows.
November 14, 2025 at 11:25 PM
The problem with reunion shows.
Reposted by Matt Craddock
Fed up with the John Lewis's website talking to me as if I'm a naughty dog.
November 14, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Fed up with the John Lewis's website talking to me as if I'm a naughty dog.
Reposted by Matt Craddock
Coca-Cola paid $3 billion dollars for this ad
November 14, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Coca-Cola paid $3 billion dollars for this ad
Reposted by Matt Craddock
What the husband @mjowen174.bsky.social says is true.
It’s been a bit quiet in my shop lately.
If you’re looking for #Christmas cards and gifts please have a look at my website.
gailmyerscough.co.uk
A repost would be lovely too.
It’s been a bit quiet in my shop lately.
If you’re looking for #Christmas cards and gifts please have a look at my website.
gailmyerscough.co.uk
A repost would be lovely too.
November 12, 2025 at 9:52 AM
What the husband @mjowen174.bsky.social says is true.
It’s been a bit quiet in my shop lately.
If you’re looking for #Christmas cards and gifts please have a look at my website.
gailmyerscough.co.uk
A repost would be lovely too.
It’s been a bit quiet in my shop lately.
If you’re looking for #Christmas cards and gifts please have a look at my website.
gailmyerscough.co.uk
A repost would be lovely too.
Reposted by Matt Craddock
Good God, someone's just uploaded to YouTube a nearly 2-hour long video of one of the original Vic Reeves Big Night Out live shows at the Albany Empire from 1989. www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKPU...
Vic Reeves Big Night Out - 30 April 1989
YouTube video by Peter Brooke Turner
www.youtube.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Good God, someone's just uploaded to YouTube a nearly 2-hour long video of one of the original Vic Reeves Big Night Out live shows at the Albany Empire from 1989. www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKPU...
Reposted by Matt Craddock
second verse on this is one of the funniest things i've ever heard
November 9, 2025 at 3:10 PM
second verse on this is one of the funniest things i've ever heard
Reposted by Matt Craddock
Finnur Dellsén got a nice pic of me on my standard Q&A slide, so now I have a stock reply to any time anyone disagrees with me.
November 7, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Finnur Dellsén got a nice pic of me on my standard Q&A slide, so now I have a stock reply to any time anyone disagrees with me.
Reposted by Matt Craddock
He should call it And Another Thing
John Carpenter says he's working on a sequel to 'The Thing'
"We'll see"
"We'll see"
November 7, 2025 at 10:51 PM
He should call it And Another Thing
Reposted by Matt Craddock
Do you like RSA analysis, M/EEG and Bayes? Then you'll love Variational RSA for M/EEG, by recently completed PhD student @alexlepauvre.bsky.social from Lucia Melloni's group. It's a method and SPM toolbox for multivariate analysis of M/EEG data. arxiv.org/pdf/2511.01784 . 🧵 [1/4]
November 6, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Do you like RSA analysis, M/EEG and Bayes? Then you'll love Variational RSA for M/EEG, by recently completed PhD student @alexlepauvre.bsky.social from Lucia Melloni's group. It's a method and SPM toolbox for multivariate analysis of M/EEG data. arxiv.org/pdf/2511.01784 . 🧵 [1/4]
Bugonia review: I enjoyed some of the cinematography
November 5, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Bugonia review: I enjoyed some of the cinematography
Reposted by Matt Craddock
VP Cheney will be honoured with a 21 gun salute accidentally aimed directly at 21 of his friends
November 4, 2025 at 11:42 AM
VP Cheney will be honoured with a 21 gun salute accidentally aimed directly at 21 of his friends
Reposted by Matt Craddock
28g (1oz) uranium contains ~20,000,000,000 kcal, making it an incredibly cost effective source of calories
IT IS TIME FOR BLUESKY RECIPE POSTING
do you have a cheap, healthy, low-cost recipe? post it here! or quote tweet this post. or dunk on me for something I don't care just post easy meals that people can make right now.
do you have a cheap, healthy, low-cost recipe? post it here! or quote tweet this post. or dunk on me for something I don't care just post easy meals that people can make right now.
November 4, 2025 at 6:22 AM
28g (1oz) uranium contains ~20,000,000,000 kcal, making it an incredibly cost effective source of calories
Reposted by Matt Craddock
"A good way to learn German is to read children's books to familiarise yourself with basic grammar and vocabulary"
German children's book:
German children's book:
December 10, 2024 at 6:58 AM
"A good way to learn German is to read children's books to familiarise yourself with basic grammar and vocabulary"
German children's book:
German children's book:
Reposted by Matt Craddock
Oh no it doesn't!
Badenoch says thinking of PMQs 'like a panto' helps her prepare for it - www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
November 3, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Oh no it doesn't!
Reposted by Matt Craddock
Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)
I'm now also looking for a postdoc with strong Bayesian background and interest in developing Bayesian cross-validation theory, methods and software. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact information at users.aalto.fi/~ave/).
Others, please share
Others, please share
I'm looking for a doctoral student with Bayesian background to work on Bayesian workflow and cross-validation (see my publication list users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... for my recent work) at Aalto University.
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
November 3, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)
Reposted by Matt Craddock
My son was basically a celebrity trick or treating tonight. He was on cloud 9 from all the attention. Worth the effort!
November 1, 2025 at 3:44 AM
My son was basically a celebrity trick or treating tonight. He was on cloud 9 from all the attention. Worth the effort!
99% of the prompts are just this
November 1, 2025 at 10:58 AM
99% of the prompts are just this
Reposted by Matt Craddock
A reminder that you don't need to understand everything you see
October 30, 2025 at 7:28 PM
A reminder that you don't need to understand everything you see
Reposted by Matt Craddock
I built a DAG diagram with garden hoses for teaching.
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
October 28, 2025 at 5:50 PM
I built a DAG diagram with garden hoses for teaching.
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).