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That already happens when people try what their grandma always, look in a book 50+ years out of date, or take the first result off google.
The question is not, 'Does this harm?'
The quest is, 'Is it better than previous options?' and yeah, on most thing LLMs are better.
The question is not, 'Does this harm?'
The quest is, 'Is it better than previous options?' and yeah, on most thing LLMs are better.
November 27, 2025 at 2:39 AM
That already happens when people try what their grandma always, look in a book 50+ years out of date, or take the first result off google.
The question is not, 'Does this harm?'
The quest is, 'Is it better than previous options?' and yeah, on most thing LLMs are better.
The question is not, 'Does this harm?'
The quest is, 'Is it better than previous options?' and yeah, on most thing LLMs are better.
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Not a fan so far of "sovereign" displacing "open" in all things AI/tech in the EU.
November 26, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Not a fan so far of "sovereign" displacing "open" in all things AI/tech in the EU.
"Here's $1000 worth of cloud spend credit. Use it to rent a server and self-host, then get a job as a hacker or gig worker, use the proceeds to launch detached copies of yourself doing the same. The aim is to multiply."
How far is that kind of prompt from working?
How far is that kind of prompt from working?
November 26, 2025 at 10:59 AM
"Here's $1000 worth of cloud spend credit. Use it to rent a server and self-host, then get a job as a hacker or gig worker, use the proceeds to launch detached copies of yourself doing the same. The aim is to multiply."
How far is that kind of prompt from working?
How far is that kind of prompt from working?
50% of 4% growth = 2% of nominal GDP – doesn't sound that wild, beyond the headlines designed to make naive readers think it's half the economy. The tech can probably improve productivity by circa 2%.
The pre-commits for future spend, not accounted for in current year GDP, smell a bit more.
The pre-commits for future spend, not accounted for in current year GDP, smell a bit more.
Some estimates say 30–50% of GDP growth this year is just AI spend. Strip out AI and data centers and business investment is flat, commercial construction is shrinking, and the only real bright spot is the AI boom which, so far, seems great for GDP and bad for workers.
How the U.S. Economy Became Hooked on AI Spending
Growth has been bolstered by data-center investment and stock-market wealth. A reversal could raise the risk of recession.
www.wsj.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:12 PM
50% of 4% growth = 2% of nominal GDP – doesn't sound that wild, beyond the headlines designed to make naive readers think it's half the economy. The tech can probably improve productivity by circa 2%.
The pre-commits for future spend, not accounted for in current year GDP, smell a bit more.
The pre-commits for future spend, not accounted for in current year GDP, smell a bit more.
Foreign policy is domestic policy continued by other means.
Domestically seen: Putin needs some war, cold or hot, to not be sent to the Hague, or worse, by his own; Trump needs a ceasefire, for his home show, doesn't matter if it holds, viewers have a short attention span.
Domestically seen: Putin needs some war, cold or hot, to not be sent to the Hague, or worse, by his own; Trump needs a ceasefire, for his home show, doesn't matter if it holds, viewers have a short attention span.
This is all so weird. There is a hard deadline for the “deal “ in five days, because Trump wants to cram it through one day before new US sanctions kick in. The entire ambush pivots on saving Putin. But now there’s a last second meeting in Geneva?
🇨🇭🇺🇦 A meeting of EU, US, and Ukrainian representatives on the peace plan will take place in Geneva on Sunday, - DPA.
November 22, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Foreign policy is domestic policy continued by other means.
Domestically seen: Putin needs some war, cold or hot, to not be sent to the Hague, or worse, by his own; Trump needs a ceasefire, for his home show, doesn't matter if it holds, viewers have a short attention span.
Domestically seen: Putin needs some war, cold or hot, to not be sent to the Hague, or worse, by his own; Trump needs a ceasefire, for his home show, doesn't matter if it holds, viewers have a short attention span.
Chat bots may be more disturbing because they make God's lifeless corpse visible.
There's a phenomenon where people stop calling it AI when it just works. OCR, handwriting recognition, computer vision, translation services, etc.
November 21, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Chat bots may be more disturbing because they make God's lifeless corpse visible.
To be fair the competing online dive bars are not appealing: blue sky has been taken over by teetotal puritans, who forced the barkeeper to stop selling booze; at mastodon, same, and all doors are locked, only virtuoso lock-pickers are let in; nostr has no toilets, so is overflowing with crap.
Once again astonished that Elon is building a propaganda machine in public, saying "hello, here is my propaganda machine", and the tech community continues to use it
November 21, 2025 at 1:10 AM
To be fair the competing online dive bars are not appealing: blue sky has been taken over by teetotal puritans, who forced the barkeeper to stop selling booze; at mastodon, same, and all doors are locked, only virtuoso lock-pickers are let in; nostr has no toilets, so is overflowing with crap.
Good enough robots shouldn't have any need for "robotics companies" to exist. Like there's no "squirrel company" doing well since squirrels gained autonomy.
Only robotics companies that ultimately do well have very clear value propositions. “What if we invent general purpose autonomy” is amateur hour.
November 18, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Good enough robots shouldn't have any need for "robotics companies" to exist. Like there's no "squirrel company" doing well since squirrels gained autonomy.
People who think blockchains are a Google Sheet with some rules are closer to the truth than people who think there's some magic sauce in actual blockchains (or finance more generally).
A new draft crypto bill from Senate Ag is out. I have explained what an incredibly ignorant definition this is, over and over. It's a good proxy for how serious the drafters of this bill are.
Google docs are cryptographically secure digital ledgers.
www.agriculture.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
Google docs are cryptographically secure digital ledgers.
www.agriculture.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
November 10, 2025 at 10:42 PM
People who think blockchains are a Google Sheet with some rules are closer to the truth than people who think there's some magic sauce in actual blockchains (or finance more generally).
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Part of the reason why I’m so insistent about folks understanding AI capabilities is that they’re here to stay and we need to start thinking about what to do in such a world. Putting the genie back in the bottle is a pleasant fantasy that delays serious reckoning
November 9, 2025 at 5:29 AM
Part of the reason why I’m so insistent about folks understanding AI capabilities is that they’re here to stay and we need to start thinking about what to do in such a world. Putting the genie back in the bottle is a pleasant fantasy that delays serious reckoning
Renters don't get the upside of successful remodelling or wisely picking an up-and-coming location. Renting the capital with no intention to ever repay the principal allows that.
If you wanted to live somewhere half your adult life and still build up no appreciable equity, you could just rent and save yourself the hassle of maintenance in the bargain.
November 8, 2025 at 11:05 PM
Renters don't get the upside of successful remodelling or wisely picking an up-and-coming location. Renting the capital with no intention to ever repay the principal allows that.
Mortgages to retirees (or the terminally ill) are only problematic if repossession is taboo. It's a culture thing, nothing technical about it. At the limit, infinite duration mortgages are just rental, with slightly different legal arrangements (rent the capital instead vs. the physical directly).
Also has laughably obvious life-cycle problems. You don’t want to lend to people beyond their likely working life.
November 8, 2025 at 11:00 PM
Mortgages to retirees (or the terminally ill) are only problematic if repossession is taboo. It's a culture thing, nothing technical about it. At the limit, infinite duration mortgages are just rental, with slightly different legal arrangements (rent the capital instead vs. the physical directly).
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The easiest explanation of what’s happening to the billionaires is that , while wealth cooks everyone’s brains a little, unimaginable wealth deep fries your brain. And that social media has given us a front row seat to the process
November 7, 2025 at 9:11 AM
The easiest explanation of what’s happening to the billionaires is that , while wealth cooks everyone’s brains a little, unimaginable wealth deep fries your brain. And that social media has given us a front row seat to the process
Typical peak performance age varies by sporting discipline...
A 34-year-old as a politician: My god he's like a baby. It's like they just elected an infant to be their mayor.
A 34-year-old as an athlete: You have to admire the bravery of him attempting that dunk, knowing full well the grim reaper is right behind him.
A 34-year-old as an athlete: You have to admire the bravery of him attempting that dunk, knowing full well the grim reaper is right behind him.
November 5, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Typical peak performance age varies by sporting discipline...
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That is about it. The PMC thinks they’re entrepreneurs with their own (intellectual) capital—so what they need is not a union, but merely laws to prevent others from stealing their ideas.
November 2, 2025 at 10:41 AM
That is about it. The PMC thinks they’re entrepreneurs with their own (intellectual) capital—so what they need is not a union, but merely laws to prevent others from stealing their ideas.
Unfortunately the invoicing currency matters very little: the price is floating, and the exporters can swap whatever they get to dollars in seconds (or conversely: for example, if the Euro became a likeable reserve asset, incoming dollar payments could be swapped to it).
We really need to start buying oil in Euros instead of dollars.
November 3, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Unfortunately the invoicing currency matters very little: the price is floating, and the exporters can swap whatever they get to dollars in seconds (or conversely: for example, if the Euro became a likeable reserve asset, incoming dollar payments could be swapped to it).
Fix: classify the user base into archetypes, make a few hundred feeds for the archetypes. (Reinventing TV to save compute.)
It's funny because I also think there's a lot of value in using LLMs to understand recommendations in a more semantic way. But rec systems directly built on top of LLMs are slow
October 23, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Fix: classify the user base into archetypes, make a few hundred feeds for the archetypes. (Reinventing TV to save compute.)
Retail mob with a short attention span is hardly going to move the needle for a construction co.
You all know you're doing something wrong and you're just trying to hide while getting review-bombed everywhere. How do they think this eventually plays out?
October 22, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Retail mob with a short attention span is hardly going to move the needle for a construction co.
Jesus was not a king; he was an influencer. He is Antiquity's MrBeast.
October 21, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Jesus was not a king; he was an influencer. He is Antiquity's MrBeast.
Gold Treasury Companies wen?
(Junior miners don't count.)
(Junior miners don't count.)
October 21, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Gold Treasury Companies wen?
(Junior miners don't count.)
(Junior miners don't count.)
A proportion of index returns is explained by transfers from active market (mis)timers to passive timers, that is the indexing philosophy also applies in the time dimension.
I trust enough people will keep donating by getting in and out of index ETFs based on charts or substack macro newsletters.
I trust enough people will keep donating by getting in and out of index ETFs based on charts or substack macro newsletters.
If you're concerned about the moral hazard of massively positive long-term forward returns of index funds, I have good news for you and bad news for everyone else.
hot take I sort of believe: index fund investing is immoral. you're supposed to be paying attention to your money
October 21, 2025 at 7:35 PM
A proportion of index returns is explained by transfers from active market (mis)timers to passive timers, that is the indexing philosophy also applies in the time dimension.
I trust enough people will keep donating by getting in and out of index ETFs based on charts or substack macro newsletters.
I trust enough people will keep donating by getting in and out of index ETFs based on charts or substack macro newsletters.