Quantian
@quantian.bsky.social
12K followers 250 following 1.5K posts
Locked in and posting regularly on here now
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
quantian.bsky.social
A lot of people who are not scientists love to break out the word “polycrisis” but global warming is one of the most monocausal crisis ever: the vibrational modes of CO2 have an absorption peak around the same wavenumber the earth’s surface has a reflection peak at. We’ve known this for centuries!
quantian.bsky.social
The Bezos one in particular rings hollow to me, from what I’ve heard from people who work with him he is actually the insane autocratic detail-oriented micromanager that Elon LARPs as sometimes.
quantian.bsky.social
In my experience self-made rich people can maintain a decent grasp on reality until about $25-50 million or so, and at that point they usually lose it. Heirs maybe $10 million is the normality threshold.
ceej.online
someone with a billion dollars no longer experiences the world as 99% of humanity would recognize it, and so any “analysis” or critique of society they offer is fatally, irrevocably flawed. dracula complaining about the price of groceries
ceej.online
the disastrous refusal of the self-styled silicon valley technokings to keep anyone in their lives capable of questioning their increasingly incomprehensible politics has lead to a crisis of thinking so severe that a fifty-eight year old man believes something is important because he knows about it
quantian.bsky.social
If it wasn’t incredibly obvious before that X revenue sharing is treated as a slush fund for Elon to funnel cash to his future baby mommies and favorite right wing influencers, it is explicit now.
quantian.bsky.social
Nobody, even the dumbest retail punter, thinks that their 50x leverage futures or shady offshore exchange is a “safe asset” and they’re basically playing with funny money. Even stablecoins blow up all the time and the response is mostly “lmao I’ll make it back next time I guess?”
quantian.bsky.social
This is “bad for society” and has all sorts of negative downstream consequences but I don’t think it’s a systemic risk to the financial system is among them, in the same sense that sports gambling is also very bad for society but DraftKings going under isn’t the same as a run on JPM
quantian.bsky.social
Especially post-FTX the crypto ecosystem has gotten very robust and sophisticated, it’s mostly large trading firms PvP-ing each other in their quest to rip off every hapless click trader and retail pump and dumper.
quantian.bsky.social
Buy the apartment building over the luxury mall! They’re clearly doing the synergies already.
quantian.bsky.social
I don’t think it’s that much money, especially since the specific consumption basket (nice apartment in ritzy neighborhood, luxury shopping sprees, Michelin private chef, discreet protection agents) is functionally identical to what Mistress #27 gets, so you have economies of scale
quantian.bsky.social
I’m a huge sicko and love Act 1 of BG3 for this reason, you have decent first strike capabilities but will get pasted in any large or long fight so you need to be careful sneaking around and dropping chandeliers on people and picking your battles. Wish the entire game played like the goblin camp.
quantian.bsky.social
I have heard (albeit secondhand) that Cantor is already active in this market.
quantian.bsky.social
1 month SPX chart is straight from a Taleb book lmao
quantian.bsky.social
How did Milei fuck this up specifically with a peso crisis. Wasn’t devaluing the peso literally the first thing he did when he got into office? Everybody knows you take the day 1 hit and blame it on the prior guy, c’mon.
quantian.bsky.social
If elites will acquiesce to authoritarian consolidation because the economy seems to be chugging along and they personally are doing fine, then that is a problem but also fortunately a fixable one.
quantian.bsky.social
I am not sure at this point if Dems at the federal level have a better near term strategic option than “let Trump wreck the economy and hope voters blame him for it”. There are more options at the state level but they are really screwed given how the media has lined up behind Trump.
kwcollins.bsky.social
If Dems win the standoff and get their policy demands, yes they will have substantively helped millions of Americans (a good thing, to be clear), but also they will have kept Republicans from a self-inflicted wound in upcoming elections
quantian.bsky.social
Not liking this one, touch grass nerd
quantian.bsky.social
You might say I've played a little Hades 2...
quantian.bsky.social
I have added several hundred children worth of alpha to our ERISA assets this year and I should get to claim them all as dependents on my tax return god damn it.
quantian.bsky.social
1 basis point of outperformance vs the index on a billion dollars of pension assets provides the equivalent funding benefit as adding 9 new workers, so clearly the right policy to ensure stable retirement systems is tax families with children in order to lower them on successful hedge fund managers.
quantian.bsky.social
If there was a premature child who would die unless they were put in a robot womb, but the only way to turn on the womb was to say a slur, would it be acceptable then, huh??
quantian.bsky.social
How is MSFT overearning, half of operating income is from Office. Will people stop using Excel in a post-AI world?
quantian.bsky.social
ChatGPT in my Bloomberg push notifs? Excuse me, I pay $30k a year for the only the finest human curated news about third-string index arb PMs blowing out of their Millennium seats to go to ExodusPoint
quantian.bsky.social
yeah they expect large earnings declines from competition by Elon Musk's Macrohard, so I'll take the other side of that any day lol
quantian.bsky.social
If you refi your mortgage from 8% to 4.5% that frees up quite a bit of cashflow for you to spend!