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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann

Michael Wiebe @michaelwiebe.bsky.social · 18h

Expanding the urban growth boundary makes residential land more abundant and hence cheaper; with ⬇️ land costs, housing supply ⬆️, and housing prices ⬇️.

Upzoning makes apartment-zoned land more abundant and hence cheaper; with ⬇️ land costs, apartment supply ⬆️, and apartment prices ⬇️.

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 3h

Today’s microecon riddle:

Yesterday, at a diner, my breakfast came with a choice of toast or a pastry. Same price.

I chose the pastry, which might last me into November.

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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann

ElieNYC @elienyc.bsky.social · 6h

Locking in for oral arguments on the big voting rights case at the Supreme Court.

The next two hours or so will be... incredibly bad.

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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann

Chicago 🏳️‍⚧️🌱 @chicagotrans-plant.bsky.social · 1d

Incredible chart here. The housing market has very fundamentally changed over the last two decades.

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 1d

A decade from now, when we’ve had a resurgence of suburban building and moderation of home prices across the country, both mainstream and heterodox economists will have failed to prepare you for both the substantial risks and rewards offered by these whipsawed markets.

Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 1d

The first in a series of posts where I outline my new product that provides estimates of unsustainable land inflation in each metro area and how much new construction will be associated with the correction to normal valuations.
kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/metro-area...

Metro Area Housing Analysis: Part 1

I have created a standardized version of basic analysis for each major metropolitan area.

kevinerdmann.substack.com

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 1d

The first in a series of posts where I outline my new product that provides estimates of unsustainable land inflation in each metro area and how much new construction will be associated with the correction to normal valuations.
kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/metro-area...

Metro Area Housing Analysis: Part 1

I have created a standardized version of basic analysis for each major metropolitan area.

kevinerdmann.substack.com

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 1d

Think about how cooked so many brains are that this headline needs to be said

reason.org/commentary/i...

Investor-owned housing helps renters

It is not the infusion of capital from investors that disrupts housing markets; it is local government policies that do not let supply keep up with demand.

reason.org

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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann

Jake_Vig @jakevig.bsky.social · 5d

Other people Homeland Security has arrested in addition to the girlfriend of the founder of Antifa:

- the mistress of the King of Gumdrop Mountain
- the Bride of Frankenstein
- Pepper Potts

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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann

Kelsey Atherton @atherton.bsky.social · 11d

Every legal story now is either

Ancient Circuit Judge Delivers Crystal Clear 100 Page Rebuke To Trumpist Overreach

or

In Unsigned Shadow Docket Decision, 6-3 Majority Declares Trump Can Hunt People For Sport

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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 4d

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Max Dubler 🏳️‍🌈 @maxdubler.com · 5d

Anyway you can convert a single family house into 3 units and rent them all out without any owner occupancy requirement now.

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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann

Max Dubler 🏳️‍🌈 @maxdubler.com · 5d

This bill I wrote is now law.

California YIMBY @cayimby.bsky.social · 5d

[VICTORY ALERT] Governor Newsom has signed AB 1154, which will make it faster, cheaper, and easier to add small accessory dwelling units to existing homes.

Our statement: cayimby.org/news-events/...

California Law Makes it Easier to Build Small, In-Home ADUs

New Law Signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom Removes Barriers, Imposes Standards

cayimby.org

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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 5d

Three key points:
1) The admin has been planning mass firings to begin in October since February
2) The work necessary to carry out mass firings is illegal during a shutdown, violating the Antideficiency Act, which carries a criminal penalty
3) This harms America, ridding us of talent and expertise

Russ Vought v @russvought
The RIFs have begun.
12:27 PM • 10/10/25 • 15K Views

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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann

Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 5d

UPDATE: Newsom has signed SB 79 into law!!

This is a great day for anyone who cares about ending California's housing and homelessness crisis, getting the state to net zero emissions, and recovering American democracy.

Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 6d

If you live in California, please call @gavinnewsom.bsky.social at (916) 445-2841 and urge him to sign SB 79. Here's my post about why the bill is so important: publiccomment.blog/p/newsom-s-f...

Newsom's Fateful Choice

Why the governor needs to sign SB 79

publiccomment.blog

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 5d

Every time I go to the doctor and I need to spend 20 minutes filling out multiple forms that all amount to “I understand that the provider can bankrupt me with bills for $500 aspirins without my prior consent.” I go full socialist.

Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 6d

Republicans have had 15 years to come up with an Obamacare replacement plan. They still haven’t

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 6d

Thune: "The president would like to overhaul Obamacare and give people health insurance that is higher quality and more affordable."

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 5d

All of the events shown in "The Big Short", the movie about an out-of-control financial sector fueling unsustainable homeownership, take place in the circled time period.

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 5d

It really is bizarre how there is an entire industry based on using buzz word terms of art to describe a pretend monster in a world of abstractions.

Alexander Reid Ross @areidross.bsky.social · 5d

The amount of critical academic literature that's just [Hatred of Neoliberalism] is nuts. Neoliberalism hasn't been a driving economic force for ten years, why does everyone in academia still blame it for literally everything?

Reposted by Kevin Erdmann

🏢 🔥 David Hell 🔥 🚎 @davidl206.city · 6d

We knew they would be cruel, and we knew they’d be bigoted, and we knew they’d be destructive. But I’ll confess I wasn’t prepared, even after the first time, for how staggeringly *stupid* they are. We are in a period defined by no brainpower in power: rule of the dimmest.

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 7d

This is mostly behind the paywall, but here I explain how we would be in the recovery phase of a recession that started 2 years ago, but the housing shortage tames the business cycle.

The New Business Cycle: The 2024 Recession
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...

The New Business Cycle: Just-So Stories

Recently, I wrote a series of posts about how a housing shortage changes the business cycle.

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann

Consumer Federation of America @consumerfed.bsky.social · 7d

NEW REPORT: “Mortgages remain scarce in too many places," said @sjccorn.bsky.social “From rural #Georgia to rural #Texas and from #Baltimore to #Detroit, without #mortgages, families cannot become #homeowners
#MortgageDeserts

New Report Discovers Mortgage Deserts Exist Nationwide, Most Often in Communities with a Higher-Than-Average Share of Black Residents · Consumer Federation of America

A new report from the Consumer Federation of America, Mortgage Deserts: Mapping Which Rural and Urban Communities Remain Left Behind by Mortgage Finance, shows that despite decades of federal policy e...

consumerfed.org

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 7d

I think this is the case. The process itself has turned the public against housing. The only way to express power is to imagine objections. We’ve been nudging the public to object. When the process is removed, they will actually feel less objectionable.

East Bay for Everyone @eastbayforeveryone.bsky.social · 7d

Ultimately the crowd was a lot less hostile than they would have been in previous years because there's nothing they can do to stop the proposal

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 7d

The best way to help home buyers is to help renters. And, the best way to help renters is to let a lot more families get mortgages!

Follow Up to "With prawns like these..."
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...

Follow Up to "With prawns like these..."

Two more charts that might be enlightening.

open.substack.com

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 7d

You can guarantee that when The Supreme Court is ruling on whether the tariffs were legal, Trumps lawyers will argue that the tariffs have to be legal because they’ve already spent the revenues.

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 8d

“.. there is the question of how the bond market will react to tariff revenue being redirected away from lowering the deficit.”

@barrons.com
www.barrons.com/articles/tru...

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 8d

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Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 8d

For the foreseeable future, housing affordability and homeownership rates will be negatively correlated. Higher prices will be associated with fewer renting households and vice versa. If the model you use for the housing market can't foresee this, then your model is not useful.

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