Kevin Erdmann
@kevinerdmann.bsky.social
I discovered the surprising story of what really happened in 2008 (not enough housing) and accidentally became a housing policy guy.
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
Yep. Had this exchange just minutes ago:
November 26, 2025 at 10:21 PM
Yep. Had this exchange just minutes ago:
Was recently reminded of this citation in my book "Shut Out".
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
November 25, 2025 at 5:48 AM
Was recently reminded of this citation in my book "Shut Out".
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
It’s a popular misconception that Arizona doesn’t have 4 seasons.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
November 24, 2025 at 9:28 PM
It’s a popular misconception that Arizona doesn’t have 4 seasons.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
I forecast flat home prices for this year, which put me at the bottom of the polls I was a part of.
I also was and am bullish on homebuilding.
Both were accurate, in a sharp turn from historical experience.
Just giving you all a heads up about how right I'm going to keep being about all of this.
I also was and am bullish on homebuilding.
Both were accurate, in a sharp turn from historical experience.
Just giving you all a heads up about how right I'm going to keep being about all of this.
November 21, 2025 at 7:53 PM
I forecast flat home prices for this year, which put me at the bottom of the polls I was a part of.
I also was and am bullish on homebuilding.
Both were accurate, in a sharp turn from historical experience.
Just giving you all a heads up about how right I'm going to keep being about all of this.
I also was and am bullish on homebuilding.
Both were accurate, in a sharp turn from historical experience.
Just giving you all a heads up about how right I'm going to keep being about all of this.
Probably a decent chance that construction employment levels out here and starts growing again.
November 20, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Probably a decent chance that construction employment levels out here and starts growing again.
This is wrong Matt. Averages can't describe the problem. It's distributional.
For below-median incomes, housing costs are high even after making significant compromises on size, quality, and location.
And even those numbers are understated if owner costs are part of the computation.
For below-median incomes, housing costs are high even after making significant compromises on size, quality, and location.
And even those numbers are understated if owner costs are part of the computation.
November 20, 2025 at 8:02 PM
This is wrong Matt. Averages can't describe the problem. It's distributional.
For below-median incomes, housing costs are high even after making significant compromises on size, quality, and location.
And even those numbers are understated if owner costs are part of the computation.
For below-median incomes, housing costs are high even after making significant compromises on size, quality, and location.
And even those numbers are understated if owner costs are part of the computation.
Real home prices in Detroit have doubled since 2012
November 19, 2025 at 2:40 AM
Real home prices in Detroit have doubled since 2012
November 19, 2025 at 2:38 AM
Ironically, you could say that the mania encouraged by House of Debt to collapse mortgage borrowing was the actual cause of the crisis and the loss of wealth whose damage they documented.
The evidence that none of it was necessary was building just as the book was published.
Modern bloodletting.
The evidence that none of it was necessary was building just as the book was published.
Modern bloodletting.
November 19, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Ironically, you could say that the mania encouraged by House of Debt to collapse mortgage borrowing was the actual cause of the crisis and the loss of wealth whose damage they documented.
The evidence that none of it was necessary was building just as the book was published.
Modern bloodletting.
The evidence that none of it was necessary was building just as the book was published.
Modern bloodletting.
Here are home price/income ratios in Phoenix in 2002 & 2025.
Why are those homes are now selling for 6x local incomes?
Crapped out neighborhoods in Phoenix are a status marker?
Every city looks like this. The least preferred neighborhoods have become more expensive.
Here's Minneapolis.
Why are those homes are now selling for 6x local incomes?
Crapped out neighborhoods in Phoenix are a status marker?
Every city looks like this. The least preferred neighborhoods have become more expensive.
Here's Minneapolis.
November 18, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Here are home price/income ratios in Phoenix in 2002 & 2025.
Why are those homes are now selling for 6x local incomes?
Crapped out neighborhoods in Phoenix are a status marker?
Every city looks like this. The least preferred neighborhoods have become more expensive.
Here's Minneapolis.
Why are those homes are now selling for 6x local incomes?
Crapped out neighborhoods in Phoenix are a status marker?
Every city looks like this. The least preferred neighborhoods have become more expensive.
Here's Minneapolis.
10 years ago "House of Debt" was published to wide acclaim and became the go-to explainer about the housing boom and financial crisis.
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
November 18, 2025 at 8:29 PM
10 years ago "House of Debt" was published to wide acclaim and became the go-to explainer about the housing boom and financial crisis.
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
I suppose I didn't need to use a cartoon. There are real life pictures. Will must see these. Does he go outside?
November 18, 2025 at 7:35 PM
I suppose I didn't need to use a cartoon. There are real life pictures. Will must see these. Does he go outside?
Hello, it's the cantankerous one-issue crank. Sorry to bother you again. John Cochrane needed a talking-to, and so I gave him one.
John Cochrane on Rent Control
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
John Cochrane on Rent Control
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
November 17, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Hello, it's the cantankerous one-issue crank. Sorry to bother you again. John Cochrane needed a talking-to, and so I gave him one.
John Cochrane on Rent Control
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
John Cochrane on Rent Control
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
🤷
When everyone else is trading based on Capricorn's position in the sky relative to Jupiter, you can earn alpha just by being ignorant.
When everyone else is trading based on Capricorn's position in the sky relative to Jupiter, you can earn alpha just by being ignorant.
November 15, 2025 at 3:31 AM
🤷
When everyone else is trading based on Capricorn's position in the sky relative to Jupiter, you can earn alpha just by being ignorant.
When everyone else is trading based on Capricorn's position in the sky relative to Jupiter, you can earn alpha just by being ignorant.
Basically, doubling up. Roommates, adult kids living with parents. Maybe separations that are delayed because of financial constraints.
Here are some trends. After 2008, millions were forced from owner to renter (or retracting households). Since 2015, net renters has been flat.
1/
Here are some trends. After 2008, millions were forced from owner to renter (or retracting households). Since 2015, net renters has been flat.
1/
November 14, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Basically, doubling up. Roommates, adult kids living with parents. Maybe separations that are delayed because of financial constraints.
Here are some trends. After 2008, millions were forced from owner to renter (or retracting households). Since 2015, net renters has been flat.
1/
Here are some trends. After 2008, millions were forced from owner to renter (or retracting households). Since 2015, net renters has been flat.
1/
A 10-year old chart that already had the whole story, even though in most places, most of the crisis has developed in the following decade.
If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
1/
If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
1/
November 10, 2025 at 6:12 PM
A 10-year old chart that already had the whole story, even though in most places, most of the crisis has developed in the following decade.
If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
1/
If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
1/
Health care prices relative to prices for all personal expenditures.
November 3, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Health care prices relative to prices for all personal expenditures.
Baltimore has less of a shortage than most other cities, but every city has a shortage post-2008. Here's price/income ratios across Baltimore, by ZIP code income. This systematically always is the result of underbuilding. It doesn't matter what doesn't get built, costs rise at the low end.
October 31, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Baltimore has less of a shortage than most other cities, but every city has a shortage post-2008. Here's price/income ratios across Baltimore, by ZIP code income. This systematically always is the result of underbuilding. It doesn't matter what doesn't get built, costs rise at the low end.
Here's a go at a housing elevator speech if you find yourself stuck in an elevator and want to annoy people.
October 29, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Here's a go at a housing elevator speech if you find yourself stuck in an elevator and want to annoy people.
In January 2015, I thought, "Maybe I'll blog about housing."
That became a 365 post series as I slowly discovered that the US had an underappreciated lack of adequate supply.
A decade of unprecedented rent inflation followed, and yet I'm still the "contrarian".
That became a 365 post series as I slowly discovered that the US had an underappreciated lack of adequate supply.
A decade of unprecedented rent inflation followed, and yet I'm still the "contrarian".
October 29, 2025 at 9:30 PM
In January 2015, I thought, "Maybe I'll blog about housing."
That became a 365 post series as I slowly discovered that the US had an underappreciated lack of adequate supply.
A decade of unprecedented rent inflation followed, and yet I'm still the "contrarian".
That became a 365 post series as I slowly discovered that the US had an underappreciated lack of adequate supply.
A decade of unprecedented rent inflation followed, and yet I'm still the "contrarian".