Kevin Erdmann
@kevinerdmann.bsky.social
I discovered the surprising story of what really happened in 2008 (not enough housing) and accidentally became a housing policy guy.
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
See. Since agglomeration is mostly irrelevant to our housing cost problem, you’re all giving Stancil dunks. He’s wrong and you’re all making him feel right by showing how you’re wrong. You’re all wrong.
Bluesky: “Obviously the housing crisis is the only reason anyone would choose to live outside of NYC”
Actual Americans: “Vegas, baby!”
Actual Americans: “Vegas, baby!”
November 26, 2025 at 2:27 AM
See. Since agglomeration is mostly irrelevant to our housing cost problem, you’re all giving Stancil dunks. He’s wrong and you’re all making him feel right by showing how you’re wrong. You’re all wrong.
This seems meaningful. Is Canada fixing their housing problem?
November 25, 2025 at 11:53 PM
This seems meaningful. Is Canada fixing their housing problem?
I was at the bank today and the young banker said he just bought his first house with a rate buy down from a homebuilder and he plans to move up in a few years and keep that one to rent out. He looked sheepish and said, "I guess I'm part of the problem."
1/
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November 25, 2025 at 11:14 PM
I was at the bank today and the young banker said he just bought his first house with a rate buy down from a homebuilder and he plans to move up in a few years and keep that one to rent out. He looked sheepish and said, "I guess I'm part of the problem."
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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Everything wrong with everything housing in a nutshell:
“Nearby residents who opposed the proposal cited all the variances the proposal needed…” to build housing identical to that surrounding it
“Nearby residents who opposed the proposal cited all the variances the proposal needed…” to build housing identical to that surrounding it
Zoning board approves a new triple decker, in Dorchester
www.universalhub.com/2025/zoning-...
#Boston #housing
www.universalhub.com/2025/zoning-...
#Boston #housing
November 25, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Everything wrong with everything housing in a nutshell:
“Nearby residents who opposed the proposal cited all the variances the proposal needed…” to build housing identical to that surrounding it
“Nearby residents who opposed the proposal cited all the variances the proposal needed…” to build housing identical to that surrounding it
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
The Fed can lower interest rates — but can they lower the mortgage application REJECTION rate?
(via Ben Emons)
(via Ben Emons)
November 25, 2025 at 3:34 PM
The Fed can lower interest rates — but can they lower the mortgage application REJECTION rate?
(via Ben Emons)
(via Ben Emons)
Was recently reminded of this citation in my book "Shut Out".
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
November 25, 2025 at 5:48 AM
Was recently reminded of this citation in my book "Shut Out".
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
"In many places, we already have the housing. It’s just not functioning as housing for the people who live there."
This was a post on my LinkedIn feed. Part of the evidence was that there are 44,000 single-family homes "owned by investors" (iow, rentals) in their market.
Why are people like this?
This was a post on my LinkedIn feed. Part of the evidence was that there are 44,000 single-family homes "owned by investors" (iow, rentals) in their market.
Why are people like this?
November 25, 2025 at 3:10 AM
"In many places, we already have the housing. It’s just not functioning as housing for the people who live there."
This was a post on my LinkedIn feed. Part of the evidence was that there are 44,000 single-family homes "owned by investors" (iow, rentals) in their market.
Why are people like this?
This was a post on my LinkedIn feed. Part of the evidence was that there are 44,000 single-family homes "owned by investors" (iow, rentals) in their market.
Why are people like this?
I’m seeing what appear to be new communities from Homebuilders that are showing 10% price discounts right out of the gate, so it’s not menu price stickiness.
I assume this is because it’s still advantageous to be able to discount with a rate buydown, and this is how to do it?
I assume this is because it’s still advantageous to be able to discount with a rate buydown, and this is how to do it?
November 25, 2025 at 1:53 AM
I’m seeing what appear to be new communities from Homebuilders that are showing 10% price discounts right out of the gate, so it’s not menu price stickiness.
I assume this is because it’s still advantageous to be able to discount with a rate buydown, and this is how to do it?
I assume this is because it’s still advantageous to be able to discount with a rate buydown, and this is how to do it?
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
🚨We analyzed 138 million geocoded property tax records to quantify how municipal boundaries spatially overlap onto economic segregation in every US metro area—creating disparities in localities’ ability to fund public goods. And we made an interactive map of our results! [1/16]
November 24, 2025 at 4:31 PM
🚨We analyzed 138 million geocoded property tax records to quantify how municipal boundaries spatially overlap onto economic segregation in every US metro area—creating disparities in localities’ ability to fund public goods. And we made an interactive map of our results! [1/16]
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
November 24, 2025 at 10:20 PM
It’s a popular misconception that Arizona doesn’t have 4 seasons.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
November 24, 2025 at 9:28 PM
It’s a popular misconception that Arizona doesn’t have 4 seasons.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
There is an interesting new paper on the cultural downsides of reduced homeownership.
But, you know me. I have to complain about it.
Americans giving up on homeownership
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
But, you know me. I have to complain about it.
Americans giving up on homeownership
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Americans giving up on homeownership
Tyler Cowen cited a new paper titled, “‘Giving Up’: The Impact of Decreasing Housing Affordability on Consumption, Work Effort, and Investment”.
open.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 4:31 PM
There is an interesting new paper on the cultural downsides of reduced homeownership.
But, you know me. I have to complain about it.
Americans giving up on homeownership
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
But, you know me. I have to complain about it.
Americans giving up on homeownership
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
It’s so telling that the NYT headline focuses on the partisan politics of this rather than the moral rot
November 23, 2025 at 11:49 PM
It’s so telling that the NYT headline focuses on the partisan politics of this rather than the moral rot
If RealPage had 100% market penetration, the end game apparently envisioned by its critics would be that every new apartment building would be built with 2 extra units, perpetually kept empty, so that they could withhold supply from the market to keep rents higher.
Make it make sense.
Make it make sense.
November 23, 2025 at 8:33 PM
If RealPage had 100% market penetration, the end game apparently envisioned by its critics would be that every new apartment building would be built with 2 extra units, perpetually kept empty, so that they could withhold supply from the market to keep rents higher.
Make it make sense.
Make it make sense.
When historians are looking back at the early signs of cultural decline in the American empire, I hope they know to include the abomination that is the Boise State football field.
November 23, 2025 at 12:50 AM
When historians are looking back at the early signs of cultural decline in the American empire, I hope they know to include the abomination that is the Boise State football field.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
"That's okay, you can just say yes. It's easier than explaining." One of the all-time moments in political comedy.
November 22, 2025 at 7:30 PM
"That's okay, you can just say yes. It's easier than explaining." One of the all-time moments in political comedy.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
I almost cried to see a man who'd happily seize your or my private property, would trample constitutional liberties without thinking twice, and has zero fiscal responsibility, being welcome in the Oval Office. And it didn't help matters that Zohran Mamdani was there right next to him.
November 22, 2025 at 6:45 PM
I almost cried to see a man who'd happily seize your or my private property, would trample constitutional liberties without thinking twice, and has zero fiscal responsibility, being welcome in the Oval Office. And it didn't help matters that Zohran Mamdani was there right next to him.
This is funny, but I doubt that any lack of evidence will reduce the legal harassment of realpage because it’s not motivated by reason and evidence.
I think this is mostly San Francisco finally shrugging off the pandemic, but it is *really* funny that rent prices in San Francisco shot up *immediately* after the city banned RealPage and other algorithmic price setting software.
My pre trends are incredible!
My pre trends are incredible!
November 22, 2025 at 6:23 PM
This is funny, but I doubt that any lack of evidence will reduce the legal harassment of realpage because it’s not motivated by reason and evidence.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
I think this is mostly San Francisco finally shrugging off the pandemic, but it is *really* funny that rent prices in San Francisco shot up *immediately* after the city banned RealPage and other algorithmic price setting software.
My pre trends are incredible!
My pre trends are incredible!
November 22, 2025 at 5:29 PM
I think this is mostly San Francisco finally shrugging off the pandemic, but it is *really* funny that rent prices in San Francisco shot up *immediately* after the city banned RealPage and other algorithmic price setting software.
My pre trends are incredible!
My pre trends are incredible!
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Left-wing vs right-wing populism in one picture.
This couldn't have been more perfect. Ignoring tradeoffs and blaming the main outgroup as the solution to every societal problem.
This couldn't have been more perfect. Ignoring tradeoffs and blaming the main outgroup as the solution to every societal problem.
November 22, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Left-wing vs right-wing populism in one picture.
This couldn't have been more perfect. Ignoring tradeoffs and blaming the main outgroup as the solution to every societal problem.
This couldn't have been more perfect. Ignoring tradeoffs and blaming the main outgroup as the solution to every societal problem.
My wife is 10 minutes into an argument where her mom is trying to shame her into watching Ken Burn’s The Revolution. My wife says she’s tired of Burn‘s style and her mom admitted to falling asleep watching.
Just heard an exasperated, “To quote Shark Tank, ‘And for that reason, I’m out.”
😂😂
Just heard an exasperated, “To quote Shark Tank, ‘And for that reason, I’m out.”
😂😂
November 22, 2025 at 3:44 PM
My wife is 10 minutes into an argument where her mom is trying to shame her into watching Ken Burn’s The Revolution. My wife says she’s tired of Burn‘s style and her mom admitted to falling asleep watching.
Just heard an exasperated, “To quote Shark Tank, ‘And for that reason, I’m out.”
😂😂
Just heard an exasperated, “To quote Shark Tank, ‘And for that reason, I’m out.”
😂😂
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
No, he isn’t. There is literally no legal means by which he can do this. It’s not presidential power. TPS by law cannot be terminated early, and Somali TPS is not set to expire until March 17, 2026.
Trump says he’s ending Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Somali refugees in Minnesota “immediately.”
November 22, 2025 at 1:50 AM
No, he isn’t. There is literally no legal means by which he can do this. It’s not presidential power. TPS by law cannot be terminated early, and Somali TPS is not set to expire until March 17, 2026.
I forecast flat home prices for this year, which put me at the bottom of the polls I was a part of.
I also was and am bullish on homebuilding.
Both were accurate, in a sharp turn from historical experience.
Just giving you all a heads up about how right I'm going to keep being about all of this.
I also was and am bullish on homebuilding.
Both were accurate, in a sharp turn from historical experience.
Just giving you all a heads up about how right I'm going to keep being about all of this.
November 21, 2025 at 7:53 PM
I forecast flat home prices for this year, which put me at the bottom of the polls I was a part of.
I also was and am bullish on homebuilding.
Both were accurate, in a sharp turn from historical experience.
Just giving you all a heads up about how right I'm going to keep being about all of this.
I also was and am bullish on homebuilding.
Both were accurate, in a sharp turn from historical experience.
Just giving you all a heads up about how right I'm going to keep being about all of this.
Hot take: Inventory of homes for sale is mostly a lagging or coincident indicator. It is largely driven by trailing price trends. If prices have been rising, it is low. If prices have been level or declining, it is high. It has very little value as a forecasting tool.
You're welcome.
You're welcome.
November 21, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Hot take: Inventory of homes for sale is mostly a lagging or coincident indicator. It is largely driven by trailing price trends. If prices have been rising, it is low. If prices have been level or declining, it is high. It has very little value as a forecasting tool.
You're welcome.
You're welcome.