Ian Bond
@cerianbond.bsky.social
Deputy director, Centre for European Reform, London @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social . Supporter of democracy, the rule of law, the EU & Ukraine. Opponent of authoritarianism, corruption & Putin's Russia.
Pinned
Ian Bond
@cerianbond.bsky.social
· May 31
The Routledge Guide to the European Union
Written by experts, this long-established and definitive guide to the workings of the European Union provides comprehensive, straightforward and readable coverage of this sometimes misunderstood and c...
www.routledge.com
It's been a long time coming, but I am delighted to announce that the 2nd edition of the Routledge Guide to the European Union will be published on June 30th, and is available for pre-order from June 9th. @routledgebuseco.bsky.social @tandfresearch.bsky.social www.routledge.com/The-Routledg...
Reposted by Ian Bond
Kaja Kallas @kajakallas.bsky.social :
Countries want to be in NATO because they don't want Russia to invade them, to attack them. And that's why Sweden and Finland joined NATO. That's why the Baltic states joined NATO, to have this defense umbrella, really.
Countries want to be in NATO because they don't want Russia to invade them, to attack them. And that's why Sweden and Finland joined NATO. That's why the Baltic states joined NATO, to have this defense umbrella, really.
December 15, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Kaja Kallas @kajakallas.bsky.social :
Countries want to be in NATO because they don't want Russia to invade them, to attack them. And that's why Sweden and Finland joined NATO. That's why the Baltic states joined NATO, to have this defense umbrella, really.
Countries want to be in NATO because they don't want Russia to invade them, to attack them. And that's why Sweden and Finland joined NATO. That's why the Baltic states joined NATO, to have this defense umbrella, really.
Reposted by Ian Bond
🇪🇺🇺🇦 Kallas: The Donbas isn’t Putin’s end game. If he gets it, he will demand more. We know this from history and we should learn from history.
December 15, 2025 at 8:40 AM
🇪🇺🇺🇦 Kallas: The Donbas isn’t Putin’s end game. If he gets it, he will demand more. We know this from history and we should learn from history.
Trump creates another loophole in the sanctions regime.
US lifts sanctions on Belarusian potash, state media cite Trump envoy as saying reut.rs/4qaMCss
US lifts sanctions on Belarusian potash, state media cite Trump envoy as saying
The United States is lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash, Belarusian state media quoted President Donald Trump's envoy John Coale as saying after two days of talks in Minsk with President Alexander Lukashenko.
reut.rs
December 13, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Trump creates another loophole in the sanctions regime.
Reposted by Ian Bond
This, from Stephen Paduano, is one of those pieces that just makes you double take. The European Investment Bank has about $200bn in spare lending capacity if it was less conservative and acted... like every international lending org.
Europe has money.
www.ft.com/content/7e70...
Europe has money.
www.ft.com/content/7e70...
How to guarantee Ukraine’s ‘reparations loan’
An everything-all-at-once solution
www.ft.com
December 12, 2025 at 1:21 PM
This, from Stephen Paduano, is one of those pieces that just makes you double take. The European Investment Bank has about $200bn in spare lending capacity if it was less conservative and acted... like every international lending org.
Europe has money.
www.ft.com/content/7e70...
Europe has money.
www.ft.com/content/7e70...
Reposted by Ian Bond
If you would like to receive all our publications directly to your inbox as soon as they are published, you can sign up to our mailing list here: buff.ly/9tFCSxR
December 12, 2025 at 3:02 PM
If you would like to receive all our publications directly to your inbox as soon as they are published, you can sign up to our mailing list here: buff.ly/9tFCSxR
Reposted by Ian Bond
“Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured.” A stark message from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Berlin.
A must read speech www.nato.int/en/news-and-...
A must read speech www.nato.int/en/news-and-...
December 11, 2025 at 8:17 PM
“Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured.” A stark message from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Berlin.
A must read speech www.nato.int/en/news-and-...
A must read speech www.nato.int/en/news-and-...
Courtesy of @claireberlinski.skystack.xyz , this piece by Tom Millard is a great analysis of the nexus of Trump, Putin and social media that is having such terrible consequences not just for the US but for the democratic world.
The Bonfire of the Sanities • What went wrong with America?
The Bonfire of the Sanities
What went wrong with America?
claireberlinski.substack.com
December 12, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Courtesy of @claireberlinski.skystack.xyz , this piece by Tom Millard is a great analysis of the nexus of Trump, Putin and social media that is having such terrible consequences not just for the US but for the democratic world.
Reposted by Ian Bond
"To borrow a criticism, in his robust defence of Brexit freedoms, Starmer resembles Alec Guinness’s half-mad colonel in The Bridge on the River Kwai, protecting an edifice he has forgotten was built for the benefit of the other side."
"rejoining the single market... cannot be sprung on the voters at the election. You have to spend the coming years making the case, perhaps preparing the European Commission and member states. Lest we forget, they have the actual say on this."
Drop the 'perhaps'.
www.ft.com/content/2d00...
Drop the 'perhaps'.
www.ft.com/content/2d00...
A Brexit survival strategy that shows Starmer’s days are numbered
Labour will need a different leader if it pursues a policy of rejoining the EU customs union or single market
www.ft.com
December 11, 2025 at 7:22 PM
"To borrow a criticism, in his robust defence of Brexit freedoms, Starmer resembles Alec Guinness’s half-mad colonel in The Bridge on the River Kwai, protecting an edifice he has forgotten was built for the benefit of the other side."
Reposted by Ian Bond
Last year, I was interviewed for a @frontlinepbs.bsky.social documentary about Germany's far right, with a nod to Russia and the US. The documentary came out last month and makes for deeply uncomfortable viewing.
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
The Rise of Germany's New Right | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series
Watch FRONTLINE's documentary examining how far-right leaders in Germany have risen to the brink of power.
www.pbs.org
December 11, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Last year, I was interviewed for a @frontlinepbs.bsky.social documentary about Germany's far right, with a nod to Russia and the US. The documentary came out last month and makes for deeply uncomfortable viewing.
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
Reposted by Ian Bond
“Most Ukrainians want peace”? Yes. “Most support Trump’s deal”? No.
Donald Trump keeps telling Western audiences that “most Ukrainians” support his idea of a peace deal with Russia. But fresh polling data from Ukraine shows the exact opposite.👇
Donald Trump keeps telling Western audiences that “most Ukrainians” support his idea of a peace deal with Russia. But fresh polling data from Ukraine shows the exact opposite.👇
December 11, 2025 at 9:35 AM
“Most Ukrainians want peace”? Yes. “Most support Trump’s deal”? No.
Donald Trump keeps telling Western audiences that “most Ukrainians” support his idea of a peace deal with Russia. But fresh polling data from Ukraine shows the exact opposite.👇
Donald Trump keeps telling Western audiences that “most Ukrainians” support his idea of a peace deal with Russia. But fresh polling data from Ukraine shows the exact opposite.👇
Sickening. At the very least, the US could have looked for other countries that might be willing to offer them asylum, rather than handing them back to Putin for (at best) imprisonment.
A plane carrying Russian citizens deported from the U.S. touched down in Moscow amid fears that some on board might face unjust imprisonment or forced mobilization.
Asylum-Seeking Russians Deported From U.S. at Risk of Persecution and Forced Mobilization, Activists Warn - The Moscow Times
A plane carrying Russian citizens deported from the U.S. touched down in Moscow on Tuesday amid fears that some on board might face unjust imprisonment.
www.themoscowtimes.com
December 10, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Sickening. At the very least, the US could have looked for other countries that might be willing to offer them asylum, rather than handing them back to Putin for (at best) imprisonment.
Reposted by Ian Bond
I hope the German Chancellor catches up - a 1990s deregulation agenda isn’t going to cut it against a wildly undervalued Chinese exchange rate.
I think Europe should consider broader China tariffs - either to slow down the shock directly or as a tool to pressure China to revalue.
1/
I think Europe should consider broader China tariffs - either to slow down the shock directly or as a tool to pressure China to revalue.
1/
Great Bradsher piece on how the renminbis dramatic undervaluation is supercharging China‘s export explosion.
Germanys trade deficit with China has surged more than 120% this year.
But cutting red tape will surely restore Europes competitiveness!
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/b...
Germanys trade deficit with China has surged more than 120% this year.
But cutting red tape will surely restore Europes competitiveness!
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/b...
China’s Weak Currency Is Powering Its Exports and Drawing Criticism
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:33 AM
I hope the German Chancellor catches up - a 1990s deregulation agenda isn’t going to cut it against a wildly undervalued Chinese exchange rate.
I think Europe should consider broader China tariffs - either to slow down the shock directly or as a tool to pressure China to revalue.
1/
I think Europe should consider broader China tariffs - either to slow down the shock directly or as a tool to pressure China to revalue.
1/
Reposted by Ian Bond
How many times do we need to point this out?
By appeasing the far right, you do not weaken it. You strengthen it.
While weakening your own position.
There's a vast amount of academic research showing this.
But Labour will not listen.
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/dec...
By appeasing the far right, you do not weaken it. You strengthen it.
While weakening your own position.
There's a vast amount of academic research showing this.
But Labour will not listen.
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/dec...
Starmer urges Europe’s leaders to curb ECHR to halt rise of far right
Exclusive: PM calls for members of European convention on human rights to allow tougher action to protect borders
www.theguardian.com
December 10, 2025 at 10:56 AM
How many times do we need to point this out?
By appeasing the far right, you do not weaken it. You strengthen it.
While weakening your own position.
There's a vast amount of academic research showing this.
But Labour will not listen.
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/dec...
By appeasing the far right, you do not weaken it. You strengthen it.
While weakening your own position.
There's a vast amount of academic research showing this.
But Labour will not listen.
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/dec...
I think the answer is "More than we think we can, but less than we need to be able to do". That definitely applies in the NB region, where our NATO Enhanced Forward Presence contribution is underpowered & a long way from potential reinforcements in a crisis.
What I ask every time when I talk to British officials is:
What are you able and willing to do without the US ?
Because that is the no. 1 question on my mind looking at the UK from the Nordic-Baltic region, where faith in the UK is perhaps even a bit unrealistically strong.
What are you able and willing to do without the US ?
Because that is the no. 1 question on my mind looking at the UK from the Nordic-Baltic region, where faith in the UK is perhaps even a bit unrealistically strong.
I agree. I understand the urge to keep trying to stop Trump doing more harm to UK interests, but Starmer & other European leaders need an honest conversation with voters about the effect of US abandonment on our security, & what we now need to do to protect ourselves.
December 10, 2025 at 10:51 AM
I think the answer is "More than we think we can, but less than we need to be able to do". That definitely applies in the NB region, where our NATO Enhanced Forward Presence contribution is underpowered & a long way from potential reinforcements in a crisis.
Nice to see that the US Secretary of State is laser-focussed on the real threats to American security...
Marco Rubio ordered diplomats to return to using Times New Roman font in official communications, calling his predecessor's decision to adopt Calibri a “wasteful” diversity move
Rubio Stages Font Coup: Times New Roman Ousts Calibri
The secretary of state called it a "wasteful" diversity move, according to an internal department cable seen by Reuters.
www.huffpost.com
December 10, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Nice to see that the US Secretary of State is laser-focussed on the real threats to American security...
I agree. I understand the urge to keep trying to stop Trump doing more harm to UK interests, but Starmer & other European leaders need an honest conversation with voters about the effect of US abandonment on our security, & what we now need to do to protect ourselves.
I can’t help thinking that when, in future, people ask what UK political leaders said as it became undeniable that US saw European liberal democracy as its no1 strategic foe, Starmer and others will regret that the answer is “not much, shuffled awkwardly, looked at their feet”.
December 10, 2025 at 9:52 AM
I agree. I understand the urge to keep trying to stop Trump doing more harm to UK interests, but Starmer & other European leaders need an honest conversation with voters about the effect of US abandonment on our security, & what we now need to do to protect ourselves.
Some bits of this oped by @dannythefink.bsky.social I disagree with, but the thrust of it - that the US has decided to end the Pax Americana, & Europe is going to have to spend a lot more to defend itself - is right. For the UK, there's no more Special Relationship www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
Trump’s view of Europe sounds the alarm
In pursuit of an America First foreign policy, the president is prepared to jeopardise 80 years of liberal world order
www.thetimes.com
December 10, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Some bits of this oped by @dannythefink.bsky.social I disagree with, but the thrust of it - that the US has decided to end the Pax Americana, & Europe is going to have to spend a lot more to defend itself - is right. For the UK, there's no more Special Relationship www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
Reposted by Ian Bond
In some ways this is a useful reminder that a lot of the talk of European security guarantees to Ukraine have the whole thing backwards. For more than three years Ukraine has been guaranteeing European security by fighting and degrading the Russian armed forces.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
How long Britain could really fight for if war broke out tomorrow
In the event of a war, one expert suggests the British Army could be incapable of fighting effectively on land within weeks, once committed - though 'much depends on the form of the conflict'.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 10, 2025 at 7:00 AM
In some ways this is a useful reminder that a lot of the talk of European security guarantees to Ukraine have the whole thing backwards. For more than three years Ukraine has been guaranteeing European security by fighting and degrading the Russian armed forces.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Ian Bond
One of the frustrating aspects of Trump's 'peace' efforts is that he resides in an echo chamber that doesn't acknowledge the real difficulties that Russia is facing in continuing its war in Ukraine - and it is an echo chamber that influences media coverage, judging by the questions that I get asked!
Time is not working for Russia, and things will only get worse.
“Putin is very likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia’s near-exhaustion of voluntary recruitment in 2026 by mobilizing elements of Russia’s strategic reserve to sustain combat operations in Ukraine.”
“Putin is very likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia’s near-exhaustion of voluntary recruitment in 2026 by mobilizing elements of Russia’s strategic reserve to sustain combat operations in Ukraine.”
NEW: The Kremlin is significantly intensifying its cognitive warfare effort to present the Russian military and economy as able to inevitably win a war of attrition against Ukraine. 🧵(1/9)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9, 2025: isw.pub/UkrUpdate120925
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9, 2025: isw.pub/UkrUpdate120925
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
December 10, 2025 at 6:54 AM
One of the frustrating aspects of Trump's 'peace' efforts is that he resides in an echo chamber that doesn't acknowledge the real difficulties that Russia is facing in continuing its war in Ukraine - and it is an echo chamber that influences media coverage, judging by the questions that I get asked!
Reposted by Ian Bond
This is accurate. Russia has succeeded very well in convincing media in Europe and the UK that the conflict is far more one-sided in Russia’s favour than is genuinely the case - and that contributes to the assumption that it should be settled in Russia’s favour sooner rather than later.
One of the frustrating aspects of Trump's 'peace' efforts is that he resides in an echo chamber that doesn't acknowledge the real difficulties that Russia is facing in continuing its war in Ukraine - and it is an echo chamber that influences media coverage, judging by the questions that I get asked!
Time is not working for Russia, and things will only get worse.
“Putin is very likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia’s near-exhaustion of voluntary recruitment in 2026 by mobilizing elements of Russia’s strategic reserve to sustain combat operations in Ukraine.”
“Putin is very likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia’s near-exhaustion of voluntary recruitment in 2026 by mobilizing elements of Russia’s strategic reserve to sustain combat operations in Ukraine.”
December 10, 2025 at 7:12 AM
This is accurate. Russia has succeeded very well in convincing media in Europe and the UK that the conflict is far more one-sided in Russia’s favour than is genuinely the case - and that contributes to the assumption that it should be settled in Russia’s favour sooner rather than later.
The number one target for this cognitive warfare is the White House, which has been completely conquered, it seems. Russia has not been able to conquer Ukraine, however, by cognitive or kinetic means. Europe must learn from Ukraine’s resilience.
2/ The Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort aims to achieve several of Putin’s original war aims through a negotiated settlement, as Russian forces are currently unable to achieve them on the battlefield.
December 10, 2025 at 7:11 AM
The number one target for this cognitive warfare is the White House, which has been completely conquered, it seems. Russia has not been able to conquer Ukraine, however, by cognitive or kinetic means. Europe must learn from Ukraine’s resilience.
Ironic that Trump, who seems convinced that Ukraine must lose because it’s smaller than Russia, surrendered to the Taliban, despite being commander-in-chief of the world’s most powerful military. Maybe motivation counts for something, too?
POLITICO: "Which country right now is in the stronger negotiating position?"
Trump: "There can be no question about it. It’s Russia. It’s a much bigger country."
You know Donald, not everything is about the size.
Trump: "There can be no question about it. It’s Russia. It’s a much bigger country."
You know Donald, not everything is about the size.
December 9, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Ironic that Trump, who seems convinced that Ukraine must lose because it’s smaller than Russia, surrendered to the Taliban, despite being commander-in-chief of the world’s most powerful military. Maybe motivation counts for something, too?
Reposted by Ian Bond
Europe needs not only to strengthen its defence capabilities but to increase the resilience of its societies. As long as #Russia seeks to dominate its Eastern European neighbours, the rest of Europe must defend them, & itself.
Read @cerianbond.bsky.social's paper here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
Read @cerianbond.bsky.social's paper here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
December 9, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Europe needs not only to strengthen its defence capabilities but to increase the resilience of its societies. As long as #Russia seeks to dominate its Eastern European neighbours, the rest of Europe must defend them, & itself.
Read @cerianbond.bsky.social's paper here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
Read @cerianbond.bsky.social's paper here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
I don't think it was ever realistic to think that Russia wd be so defeated that the Ukrainian flag wd fly over the Kremlin. But we need to avoid a truce that merely gives Putin time to prepare his next assault - which is what Trump’s proposals wd do.
European and American politicians who want a World War II victory for Ukraine must commit to WWII levels of commitment. Otherwise the end will probably look more like a 19th century style compromise. jstribune.com/gvosdev-defi...
Defining an Acceptable Outcome to the Russo-Ukraine War – The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune
Essays – Nikolas Gvosdev discusses alternative ways that modern wars end in the context of the Russo-Ukraine war.
jstribune.com
December 9, 2025 at 9:38 AM
I don't think it was ever realistic to think that Russia wd be so defeated that the Ukrainian flag wd fly over the Kremlin. But we need to avoid a truce that merely gives Putin time to prepare his next assault - which is what Trump’s proposals wd do.
Reposted by Ian Bond
Some in Europe are hoping for a "dirty peace" in Ukraine. In my view, that is wishful thinking. It is based on the assumption that we can go back to pre-2022 in Europe. But we can't. The war will only stop when resistance against Russia is strong enough. It will be a long way...
December 8, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Some in Europe are hoping for a "dirty peace" in Ukraine. In my view, that is wishful thinking. It is based on the assumption that we can go back to pre-2022 in Europe. But we can't. The war will only stop when resistance against Russia is strong enough. It will be a long way...