Ian Bond
@cerianbond.bsky.social
Deputy director, Centre for European Reform, London @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social . Supporter of democracy, the rule of law, the EU & Ukraine. Opponent of authoritarianism, corruption & Putin's Russia.
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Ian Bond
@cerianbond.bsky.social
· May 31
The Routledge Guide to the European Union
Written by experts, this long-established and definitive guide to the workings of the European Union provides comprehensive, straightforward and readable coverage of this sometimes misunderstood and c...
www.routledge.com
It's been a long time coming, but I am delighted to announce that the 2nd edition of the Routledge Guide to the European Union will be published on June 30th, and is available for pre-order from June 9th. @routledgebuseco.bsky.social @tandfresearch.bsky.social www.routledge.com/The-Routledg...
I don't think it was ever realistic to think that Russia wd be so defeated that the Ukrainian flag wd fly over the Kremlin. But we need to avoid a truce that merely gives Putin time to prepare his next assault - which is what Trump’s proposals wd do.
European and American politicians who want a World War II victory for Ukraine must commit to WWII levels of commitment. Otherwise the end will probably look more like a 19th century style compromise. jstribune.com/gvosdev-defi...
Defining an Acceptable Outcome to the Russo-Ukraine War – The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune
Essays – Nikolas Gvosdev discusses alternative ways that modern wars end in the context of the Russo-Ukraine war.
jstribune.com
December 9, 2025 at 9:38 AM
I don't think it was ever realistic to think that Russia wd be so defeated that the Ukrainian flag wd fly over the Kremlin. But we need to avoid a truce that merely gives Putin time to prepare his next assault - which is what Trump’s proposals wd do.
Reposted by Ian Bond
Some in Europe are hoping for a "dirty peace" in Ukraine. In my view, that is wishful thinking. It is based on the assumption that we can go back to pre-2022 in Europe. But we can't. The war will only stop when resistance against Russia is strong enough. It will be a long way...
December 8, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Some in Europe are hoping for a "dirty peace" in Ukraine. In my view, that is wishful thinking. It is based on the assumption that we can go back to pre-2022 in Europe. But we can't. The war will only stop when resistance against Russia is strong enough. It will be a long way...
Exactly.
If Ukraine actually gave up Donbas (which is simply not feasible and almost certainly won't happen), this would go down on history as one of the biggest mistakes ever made. It would not lead to peace, Russia would keep attacking, just from a much better starting position.
December 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Exactly.
Interesting article on why many in the West (& Russia) didn't expect Putin to invade Ukraine in 2022. I got that right, but was wrong in my expectation that the elite might subsequently act as a constraint on Putin, as the costs rose. This piece explains my mistake.
December 8, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Interesting article on why many in the West (& Russia) didn't expect Putin to invade Ukraine in 2022. I got that right, but was wrong in my expectation that the elite might subsequently act as a constraint on Putin, as the costs rose. This piece explains my mistake.
Reposted by Ian Bond
Totally agree with this paper. As with pre-WW1 and pre-WW2, US is absent. But Ukraine is now a major player in securing European security into the future, and Ukraine's plight today matters.
When I finished writing this a couple of weeks ago, I didn't expect that the US would set out in its National Security Strategy how it could help Putin achieve his goals.
#Russia has made two failed attempts to get the West to accept a Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe by diplomatic means. Now #Putin is intent on creating a sphere of influence by force. 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social paper by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social paper by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
December 8, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Totally agree with this paper. As with pre-WW1 and pre-WW2, US is absent. But Ukraine is now a major player in securing European security into the future, and Ukraine's plight today matters.
Reposted by Ian Bond
Chinese customs data for November out this morning - another huge surge in exports to Europe and more horrible numbers for Germany
China's exports in Nov 25 vs Nov 24 (value terms, USD)
to EU +14.8%
Germany +15.5%
Netherlands +7.4%
France +17.5%
Italy +25.4%
China's exports in Nov 25 vs Nov 24 (value terms, USD)
to EU +14.8%
Germany +15.5%
Netherlands +7.4%
France +17.5%
Italy +25.4%
December 8, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Chinese customs data for November out this morning - another huge surge in exports to Europe and more horrible numbers for Germany
China's exports in Nov 25 vs Nov 24 (value terms, USD)
to EU +14.8%
Germany +15.5%
Netherlands +7.4%
France +17.5%
Italy +25.4%
China's exports in Nov 25 vs Nov 24 (value terms, USD)
to EU +14.8%
Germany +15.5%
Netherlands +7.4%
France +17.5%
Italy +25.4%
Reposted by Ian Bond
The CER and the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise are holding a launch event in Brussels, on Wednesday 10 December with Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, Maive Rute and Yannick Treige.
Click here for further information and registration: buff.ly/K79lLz7
Click here for further information and registration: buff.ly/K79lLz7
CER/Swedish Enterprise discussion on 'Resilient Growth: Aligning Productivity and Security' with Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, Maive Rute and Yannick Treige
Click here for further information.
buff.ly
December 8, 2025 at 9:00 AM
The CER and the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise are holding a launch event in Brussels, on Wednesday 10 December with Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, Maive Rute and Yannick Treige.
Click here for further information and registration: buff.ly/K79lLz7
Click here for further information and registration: buff.ly/K79lLz7
Reposted by Ian Bond
The European Competitiveness Fund risks pitting economy security and economic growth against each other.
In a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Swedish Enterprise policy brief, @aslak.bsky.social & @zach-meyers.bsky.social propose a toolkit to unlock the ECF's potential
buff.ly/GyzXI4o
In a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Swedish Enterprise policy brief, @aslak.bsky.social & @zach-meyers.bsky.social propose a toolkit to unlock the ECF's potential
buff.ly/GyzXI4o
December 8, 2025 at 9:00 AM
The European Competitiveness Fund risks pitting economy security and economic growth against each other.
In a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Swedish Enterprise policy brief, @aslak.bsky.social & @zach-meyers.bsky.social propose a toolkit to unlock the ECF's potential
buff.ly/GyzXI4o
In a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Swedish Enterprise policy brief, @aslak.bsky.social & @zach-meyers.bsky.social propose a toolkit to unlock the ECF's potential
buff.ly/GyzXI4o
Reposted by Ian Bond
The Trump administration's worldview has always been aligned with Putin's, as was clear to anyone who paid any attention to the statements and actions of its most important members. But this isn't an alignment of equals - the White House is following the Kremlin's lead. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
New US security strategy aligns with Russia's vision, Moscow says
The Kremlin welcomes the starkly worded document, which does not cast Russia as a threat to the US.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 7, 2025 at 5:48 PM
The Trump administration's worldview has always been aligned with Putin's, as was clear to anyone who paid any attention to the statements and actions of its most important members. But this isn't an alignment of equals - the White House is following the Kremlin's lead. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Ian Bond
At the end of the Cold War, we hoped Russia would become more like the United States- democratic, with a market economy and respect for rule of law. The new NSS makes clear that Trump’s goal is to make the US more like Russia, supporting Putin’s transactionalism and spheres of influence approach.
December 7, 2025 at 12:15 AM
At the end of the Cold War, we hoped Russia would become more like the United States- democratic, with a market economy and respect for rule of law. The new NSS makes clear that Trump’s goal is to make the US more like Russia, supporting Putin’s transactionalism and spheres of influence approach.
Reposted by Ian Bond
“If we allow Russia to come out of this conflict as a victor, we have all lost” - very important and timely words from Czech President Petr Pavel.
The cost to stop a growing evil today will always be lower than the cost to stop it tomorrow.
And not just in money.
The cost to stop a growing evil today will always be lower than the cost to stop it tomorrow.
And not just in money.
December 7, 2025 at 4:23 PM
“If we allow Russia to come out of this conflict as a victor, we have all lost” - very important and timely words from Czech President Petr Pavel.
The cost to stop a growing evil today will always be lower than the cost to stop it tomorrow.
And not just in money.
The cost to stop a growing evil today will always be lower than the cost to stop it tomorrow.
And not just in money.
Excellent piece by @eribakova.bsky.social .
“Ukraine’s experience since February 2022 has upended long-held assumptions about the economics of war — from the belief that size and industrial capacity are a guarantee of victory to misunderstandings about mobilisation, logistics and adaptability.”
Ukraine, Europe and the new economics of war
By maintaining stability and innovating to hold out against Russia, Kyiv has shown that size matters less in conflict than it used to
giftarticle.ft.com
December 7, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Excellent piece by @eribakova.bsky.social .
When I finished writing this a couple of weeks ago, I didn't expect that the US would set out in its National Security Strategy how it could help Putin achieve his goals.
#Russia has made two failed attempts to get the West to accept a Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe by diplomatic means. Now #Putin is intent on creating a sphere of influence by force. 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social paper by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social paper by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
December 7, 2025 at 3:16 PM
When I finished writing this a couple of weeks ago, I didn't expect that the US would set out in its National Security Strategy how it could help Putin achieve his goals.
Reposted by Ian Bond
This is rather like me saying I’m in “the final stretch” of my plan to become an Olympic 100m champion. I’ve got some new trainers and a nice t-shirt. I only need to do the last bit where I run 100m in 10 seconds. Everything else is sorted.
Keith Kellogg, Trump’s so-called envoy on Ukraine, says talks are “in the final stretch,” but admits the hardest part remains. Control over Donetsk, Luhansk, parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and the future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant are still unresolved.
December 7, 2025 at 8:24 AM
This is rather like me saying I’m in “the final stretch” of my plan to become an Olympic 100m champion. I’ve got some new trainers and a nice t-shirt. I only need to do the last bit where I run 100m in 10 seconds. Everything else is sorted.
I can't imagine Zelenskyy needs much persuasion not to do something that would be militarily foolish for Ukraine and politically catastrophic for him. I also assume that neither he nor any serious European leader thinks that a US security guarantee would be worth anything while Trump is in power.
🇪🇺🇺🇦 Europe is persuading Zelensky not to agree to withdraw troops from Donbas, — Bloomberg
"Europe's main goal is to avoid a situation in which an exhausted Zelensky would be forced to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian Donbas and agree to a deal without serious American security guarantees."
"Europe's main goal is to avoid a situation in which an exhausted Zelensky would be forced to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian Donbas and agree to a deal without serious American security guarantees."
December 7, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I can't imagine Zelenskyy needs much persuasion not to do something that would be militarily foolish for Ukraine and politically catastrophic for him. I also assume that neither he nor any serious European leader thinks that a US security guarantee would be worth anything while Trump is in power.
This @thetimes.com piece www.thetimes.com/uk/education... on UK universities' co-operation with Chinese military-affiliated researchers strengthens the case in my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief for strengthening the UK approval scheme for sensitive research: www.cer.eu/publications...
China ‘systematically’ using UK research to gain a military edge
Report reveals that 8,000 scientific papers — involving 5,000 academics — have been produced in partnerships linked to the People’s Liberation Army
www.thetimes.com
December 7, 2025 at 2:50 PM
This @thetimes.com piece www.thetimes.com/uk/education... on UK universities' co-operation with Chinese military-affiliated researchers strengthens the case in my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief for strengthening the UK approval scheme for sensitive research: www.cer.eu/publications...
Reposted by Ian Bond
Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?
by Nathalie Tocci
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship
Europeans lulled themselves into the belief that #Trump is unpredictable and inconsistent but ultimately manageable.
This is strangely reassuring, but wrong.
by Nathalie Tocci
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship
Europeans lulled themselves into the belief that #Trump is unpredictable and inconsistent but ultimately manageable.
This is strangely reassuring, but wrong.
Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship.
foreignpolicy.com
December 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?
by Nathalie Tocci
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship
Europeans lulled themselves into the belief that #Trump is unpredictable and inconsistent but ultimately manageable.
This is strangely reassuring, but wrong.
by Nathalie Tocci
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship
Europeans lulled themselves into the belief that #Trump is unpredictable and inconsistent but ultimately manageable.
This is strangely reassuring, but wrong.
The important thing is that it should have far-reaching consequences for Russia, putting its victory in Ukraine further out of reach.
A European Union plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's fight against Russia would have “far-reaching consequences” for the EU, Moscow's ambassador to Germany warned on Friday.
Russian Ambassador Slams EU Frozen Assets Plan for Ukraine - The Moscow Times
A European Union plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's fight against Russia would have “far-reaching consequences” for the EU, Moscow's ambassador to Germany warned on Friday.
www.themoscowtimes.com
December 6, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The important thing is that it should have far-reaching consequences for Russia, putting its victory in Ukraine further out of reach.
This is not burden-sharing or even burden-shifting. It is the US abdicating its role in European security at the time when the threat is greater than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Europe must plan how to defend itself - starting by integrating Ukraine into planning & force structures.
‘The U.S. officials told their counterparts that if Europe does not meet the 2027 deadline, the U.S. may stop participating in some NATO defense coordination mechanisms’.
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Exclusive: US sets 2027 deadline for Europe-led NATO defense, officials say
The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week,...
www.reuters.com
December 6, 2025 at 12:58 PM
This is not burden-sharing or even burden-shifting. It is the US abdicating its role in European security at the time when the threat is greater than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Europe must plan how to defend itself - starting by integrating Ukraine into planning & force structures.
Great thread. The most interesting point is how much more pro-Russia the 2nd Trump administration is than the 1st. One area where the lack of grown-ups like Matthis and Tillerson/Pompeo is really felt.
Thread on the huge shift in US policy towards Russia visible in the new National Security Strategy - the biggest change since the collapse of the USSR. 🧵
December 5, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Great thread. The most interesting point is how much more pro-Russia the 2nd Trump administration is than the 1st. One area where the lack of grown-ups like Matthis and Tillerson/Pompeo is really felt.
How about focussing on "Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of Russia as a perpetually expanding empire"?
The White House has released its new National Security strategy.
As suspected, it emphasizes the Western hemisphere.
It calls for “Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.”
^ Sop for Putin?
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
As suspected, it emphasizes the Western hemisphere.
It calls for “Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.”
^ Sop for Putin?
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 3:49 PM
How about focussing on "Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of Russia as a perpetually expanding empire"?
Good piece for @warontherocks.bsky.social by former
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague Leonard Schuette - written before publication of the US National Security Strategy, but pretty accurate about its approach to Europe, & what the implications would be. warontherocks.com/2025/12/amer...
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague Leonard Schuette - written before publication of the US National Security Strategy, but pretty accurate about its approach to Europe, & what the implications would be. warontherocks.com/2025/12/amer...
America First, Europe Fourth – War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
December 5, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Good piece for @warontherocks.bsky.social by former
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague Leonard Schuette - written before publication of the US National Security Strategy, but pretty accurate about its approach to Europe, & what the implications would be. warontherocks.com/2025/12/amer...
@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague Leonard Schuette - written before publication of the US National Security Strategy, but pretty accurate about its approach to Europe, & what the implications would be. warontherocks.com/2025/12/amer...
A rather self-serving argument.
Russia's frozen state assets in the EU are better suited as a bargaining chip to achieve peace in Ukraine instead of financing a €165 billion reparations loan for Kyiv, according to the chief executive of Euroclear.
Euroclear boss: Use frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian peace deal
CEO Valérie Urbain weighs in on tortured loan saga.
www.politico.eu
December 5, 2025 at 2:03 PM
A rather self-serving argument.
Reposted by Ian Bond
And a deeper dive into the ties between Silicon Valley libertarians, MAGA, US Big Tech and the European far right and what it means for European security, and how the EU should respond (hint: the answer is not to deregulate tech).
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
Trump, Silicon Valley, and Europe’s Far-right - International Centre for Defence and Security
A new transatlantic alliance is forming. The old partnership was based on advancing liberal democracy, upholding the rules-based international order, and a security contract between the US and Europe....
icds.ee
December 5, 2025 at 10:00 AM
And a deeper dive into the ties between Silicon Valley libertarians, MAGA, US Big Tech and the European far right and what it means for European security, and how the EU should respond (hint: the answer is not to deregulate tech).
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
Reposted by Ian Bond
The new US National Security Strategy makes for scary reading. I wrote about how the US wants to support forces in Europe to tear itself apart back in November 2024, and last May. This NSS confirms that's exactly the US objective for Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 9:54 AM
The new US National Security Strategy makes for scary reading. I wrote about how the US wants to support forces in Europe to tear itself apart back in November 2024, and last May. This NSS confirms that's exactly the US objective for Europe.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...