Alejandro Schuler
@aschuler.bsky.social
Assistant Professor of Biostatistics UC Berkeley
semiparametric statistics, machine learning, causal inference, stats/ML pedagogy, social justice
Modern Causal Inference Book: alejandroschuler.github.io/mci/
semiparametric statistics, machine learning, causal inference, stats/ML pedagogy, social justice
Modern Causal Inference Book: alejandroschuler.github.io/mci/
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
I've lived in the suburbs for about five years now and I'm increasingly convinced that it's the most culturally pathological category of American life - full of addiction issues, white-collar crime, and above all, mediocrity masquerading as accomplishment and virtue. That last part is what I hate.
December 5, 2025 at 5:20 PM
I've lived in the suburbs for about five years now and I'm increasingly convinced that it's the most culturally pathological category of American life - full of addiction issues, white-collar crime, and above all, mediocrity masquerading as accomplishment and virtue. That last part is what I hate.
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
helps to think about the details like any regular crime you'd see on one of the 800 cop shows that run on TV constantly: these guys committed one set of murders, thought it over, and then decided to kill the witnesses as part of the coverup. mention of drugs is just jingling keys at this point
December 5, 2025 at 3:14 AM
helps to think about the details like any regular crime you'd see on one of the 800 cop shows that run on TV constantly: these guys committed one set of murders, thought it over, and then decided to kill the witnesses as part of the coverup. mention of drugs is just jingling keys at this point
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
This fetid landmark, this historical stain on humanity is primarily due to the stunningly reckless obliteration of America's foreign assistance agency earlier this year.
Led by the richest man on earth. In secret, on a weekend. With zero analysis or discussion of its catastrophic impacts.
Led by the richest man on earth. In secret, on a weekend. With zero analysis or discussion of its catastrophic impacts.
For First Time in Decades, Child Deaths Will Rise This Year
Almost a quarter of a million more children around the world are projected to die in 2025 than in 2024.
www.wsj.com
December 4, 2025 at 4:18 PM
This fetid landmark, this historical stain on humanity is primarily due to the stunningly reckless obliteration of America's foreign assistance agency earlier this year.
Led by the richest man on earth. In secret, on a weekend. With zero analysis or discussion of its catastrophic impacts.
Led by the richest man on earth. In secret, on a weekend. With zero analysis or discussion of its catastrophic impacts.
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
Forever confused by people like this. You can't be 8 forever. You can't be 12 forever. You can't be 18 forever.
Because you're an adult you fucking muppet. You gotta pay the magic forward.
December 3, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Forever confused by people like this. You can't be 8 forever. You can't be 12 forever. You can't be 18 forever.
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
like the "abundance" folks, this guy goes out of his way to pretend that U.S. government dysfunction is just born from an innate love of pointless bureaucracy, and isn't a direct, intentional byproduct of America's top problem: corruption and unchecked corporate power
There is such a thirst in some progressive centrist circles that they will look at the Trump administration as a model to get things done. I think its worth addressing the argument. This is from Mark Dunkelman, author of the widely praised "Why Nothing Works."
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/o...
Opinion | What the Left Could Learn From Trump’s Brutal Efficiency
www.nytimes.com
December 3, 2025 at 2:14 PM
like the "abundance" folks, this guy goes out of his way to pretend that U.S. government dysfunction is just born from an innate love of pointless bureaucracy, and isn't a direct, intentional byproduct of America's top problem: corruption and unchecked corporate power
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
Lesson 4: If you are peddling the "trust in govt" has dropped because of proceduralism, you either don't understand the study of trust or don't care. It has dropped in all countries and all institutions over the same time period. It is mostly driven by perception of politics not govt services.
December 3, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Lesson 4: If you are peddling the "trust in govt" has dropped because of proceduralism, you either don't understand the study of trust or don't care. It has dropped in all countries and all institutions over the same time period. It is mostly driven by perception of politics not govt services.
"I go the way that Providence dictates, with the assurance of a sleepwalker"
- Adolf Hitler
- Adolf Hitler
The nation’s top diplomat speaks to the sleeping destroyer of the free world.
Trump dozes while Marco Rubio speaks to him directly next to him. Just insane optics.
December 2, 2025 at 9:51 PM
"I go the way that Providence dictates, with the assurance of a sleepwalker"
- Adolf Hitler
- Adolf Hitler
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
If the field did an order of magnitude fewer studies total, and instead pooled resources to do more of these, knowledge production would dramatically accelerate.
We learn more from this one paper than from 50 one-offs examining the predictive validity of implicit measures.
We learn more from this one paper than from 50 one-offs examining the predictive validity of implicit measures.
December 2, 2025 at 2:46 PM
If the field did an order of magnitude fewer studies total, and instead pooled resources to do more of these, knowledge production would dramatically accelerate.
We learn more from this one paper than from 50 one-offs examining the predictive validity of implicit measures.
We learn more from this one paper than from 50 one-offs examining the predictive validity of implicit measures.
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
We first note that hand-wringing about the decline in US college enrollments has mistakenly linked such declines to the price of four-year colleges.
But the decline is entirely driven by two-year community colleges (and by for-profit colleges). The four-year sector is the dog that didn't bark.
But the decline is entirely driven by two-year community colleges (and by for-profit colleges). The four-year sector is the dog that didn't bark.
December 1, 2025 at 1:34 PM
We first note that hand-wringing about the decline in US college enrollments has mistakenly linked such declines to the price of four-year colleges.
But the decline is entirely driven by two-year community colleges (and by for-profit colleges). The four-year sector is the dog that didn't bark.
But the decline is entirely driven by two-year community colleges (and by for-profit colleges). The four-year sector is the dog that didn't bark.
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
The most precious commodity you have is your attention. You don’t have to waste it on poor-faith debates or arguments with strangers if you don’t think they’ll be productive. You can prioritize the things that matter to you and make your life richer.
November 30, 2025 at 8:00 PM
The most precious commodity you have is your attention. You don’t have to waste it on poor-faith debates or arguments with strangers if you don’t think they’ll be productive. You can prioritize the things that matter to you and make your life richer.
I'm ok with this as long as the president and board commit seppuku
BREAKING: Northwestern University has agreed to pay the U.S. Treasury $75 million, over the course of three years as part of an agreement with the federal government to restore funding and end investigations into the university
Full statement from NU below:
Full statement from NU below:
November 29, 2025 at 7:02 AM
I'm ok with this as long as the president and board commit seppuku
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
Something worrying me: many seem to change their research direction out of FOMO, reacting to (the obvious) recent trend: "If I don't do this, someone else will do it!"
One of the key perks we have in academia is the freedom to set our own agenda.* If someone else can—and WILL—do it, why would you?
One of the key perks we have in academia is the freedom to set our own agenda.* If someone else can—and WILL—do it, why would you?
November 29, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Something worrying me: many seem to change their research direction out of FOMO, reacting to (the obvious) recent trend: "If I don't do this, someone else will do it!"
One of the key perks we have in academia is the freedom to set our own agenda.* If someone else can—and WILL—do it, why would you?
One of the key perks we have in academia is the freedom to set our own agenda.* If someone else can—and WILL—do it, why would you?
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
Don't fine ICE, put ICE agents who did crimes in jail.
Don't fine companies, put CEOs who gave the president obvious bribes in jail.
And so on.
Don't fine companies, put CEOs who gave the president obvious bribes in jail.
And so on.
November 28, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Don't fine ICE, put ICE agents who did crimes in jail.
Don't fine companies, put CEOs who gave the president obvious bribes in jail.
And so on.
Don't fine companies, put CEOs who gave the president obvious bribes in jail.
And so on.
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
They believe that Trump will use the formal powers of the government and whatever informal powers he may have to extract costs from them if they do not play ball and they equally believe that the anti-Trump coalition will not extract these costs.
So we need to extract those costs.
So we need to extract those costs.
given how unpopular Trump is, it’s insane that civil society/universities/law firms are still asking themselves “how do I stay on Trump’s good side” rather than “how do I avoid facing consequences for complying with Trump’s illegal demands”
New Gallup poll shows Trump's approval hit a new low for his second term:
-36% approve
-60% disapprove
His approval among Republicans went from 91% in January to 84% in November
news.gallup.com/poll/699221/...
-36% approve
-60% disapprove
His approval among Republicans went from 91% in January to 84% in November
news.gallup.com/poll/699221/...
November 28, 2025 at 6:09 PM
They believe that Trump will use the formal powers of the government and whatever informal powers he may have to extract costs from them if they do not play ball and they equally believe that the anti-Trump coalition will not extract these costs.
So we need to extract those costs.
So we need to extract those costs.
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
If Trump proactively pardons Hegseth, the solution is to signal either to the ICC or the country of origin of the murdered men that we will honor extradition requests on this point.
And then, in something of an irony, Noem him out of the country before anyone can react.
And then, in something of an irony, Noem him out of the country before anyone can react.
November 28, 2025 at 6:40 PM
If Trump proactively pardons Hegseth, the solution is to signal either to the ICC or the country of origin of the murdered men that we will honor extradition requests on this point.
And then, in something of an irony, Noem him out of the country before anyone can react.
And then, in something of an irony, Noem him out of the country before anyone can react.
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
How do I get people to understand that high quality data collected with intention and analyzed by experts have even more potential to revolutionize health care?
Can't even make jokes anymore because Deloitte did use AI to say that AI is good...
www.ctvnews.ca/canada/newfo...
www.ctvnews.ca/canada/newfo...
November 27, 2025 at 7:11 AM
How do I get people to understand that high quality data collected with intention and analyzed by experts have even more potential to revolutionize health care?
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
Any algorithmic decision-making has both a prediction/inference AND a preference function over errors -- new NBER wp highlights how preference alignment can be too narrow within a given setting #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/system/files...
www.nber.org/system/files...
November 26, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Any algorithmic decision-making has both a prediction/inference AND a preference function over errors -- new NBER wp highlights how preference alignment can be too narrow within a given setting #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/system/files...
www.nber.org/system/files...
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
OpenAI needs to raise at least $207bn by 2030 so it can continue to lose money, HSBC estimates on.ft.com/4ij0yh8
OpenAI needs to raise at least $207bn by 2030 so it can continue to lose money, HSBC estimates
A burning platform
on.ft.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:42 PM
OpenAI needs to raise at least $207bn by 2030 so it can continue to lose money, HSBC estimates on.ft.com/4ij0yh8
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
it's product brain instead of human brain
November 25, 2025 at 5:16 AM
it's product brain instead of human brain
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
This by @whippletom.bsky.social is brilliant. A little dose of epistemic humility goes a long way.
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
We’ll need good data next time or lockdown arguments multiply
At the start of the pandemic two professors, Martin Landray and Peter Horby, did something that should have been banal but was also rare: they tested drugs
www.thetimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:52 PM
This by @whippletom.bsky.social is brilliant. A little dose of epistemic humility goes a long way.
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
I think a lot about how transportation policy in the 70s was slowly bending towards a multimodal future after freeway revolts and the environmental movement (and how all that progress evaporated with the Reagan admin)
Reading California’s Urban Strategy for California from Spring 1978 (Jerry Brown 1.0 administration).
Struck by this section on transportation funding:
h/t @cafedujord.bsky.social
Struck by this section on transportation funding:
h/t @cafedujord.bsky.social
November 22, 2025 at 10:51 PM
I think a lot about how transportation policy in the 70s was slowly bending towards a multimodal future after freeway revolts and the environmental movement (and how all that progress evaporated with the Reagan admin)
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
gonna start teaching a "stop the bleed by vibe" check where instead of combat tourniquets i teach GSW victims how to emit the vibes of someone without multiple catastrophic bleeds
AirBnB CEO calling it “vibe revenue” just 👨🍳 😘
The underlying cause of every bubble - debt masquerading as financial innovation - depends on not just short financial memory & speculative neophytism, but reinventing jargon of finance, like how each generation of kids has new ways to say same things.
The underlying cause of every bubble - debt masquerading as financial innovation - depends on not just short financial memory & speculative neophytism, but reinventing jargon of finance, like how each generation of kids has new ways to say same things.
November 23, 2025 at 12:59 AM
gonna start teaching a "stop the bleed by vibe" check where instead of combat tourniquets i teach GSW victims how to emit the vibes of someone without multiple catastrophic bleeds
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
My brush with academia has taught me that, contra the Great Man theory of human advancement, for every big name Harvard Professor of Whatever there are ten other people who could produce equally good research in the same position. I'm sure one of them isn't a shithead
November 17, 2025 at 8:06 PM
My brush with academia has taught me that, contra the Great Man theory of human advancement, for every big name Harvard Professor of Whatever there are ten other people who could produce equally good research in the same position. I'm sure one of them isn't a shithead
Reposted by Alejandro Schuler
I wanted to share probably the most important sermon I’ve given and it’s while I’m being arrested. It’s torture pure and simple what happens at #Broadview. I’m ok, though I was thrown to the ground and choked with my pectoral cross. A review of the video shows I was peaceful - did I deserve this?
November 15, 2025 at 5:57 AM
I wanted to share probably the most important sermon I’ve given and it’s while I’m being arrested. It’s torture pure and simple what happens at #Broadview. I’m ok, though I was thrown to the ground and choked with my pectoral cross. A review of the video shows I was peaceful - did I deserve this?