Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
Contributor @the-downballot.com.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
Pinned
Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
· Nov 18
Thread: Republicans won the Senate in 2024 despite Democrats winning more votes & representing more people nationwide.
Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.
Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.
Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
The State Board of Elections has hired new top staff members who have previously worked for Republican elected officials: www.wunc.org/politics/202... #ncpol
NC State Board of Elections hires new staff with ties to Republicans
The State Board of Elections has hired new top staff members who have previously worked for Republican elected officials. The hiring moves come after the legislature moved the agency into the state au...
www.wunc.org
November 10, 2025 at 10:24 PM
The State Board of Elections has hired new top staff members who have previously worked for Republican elected officials: www.wunc.org/politics/202... #ncpol
Hoyer is notable because his desire for certain territory in his district helped prevent an 8-0 map with a third Black district in prior remaps (especially in 2012).
If Axios' recent report that he's likely to retire is accurate, it would make an 8-0 map with increased Black representation easier
If Axios' recent report that he's likely to retire is accurate, it would make an 8-0 map with increased Black representation easier
Steny Hoyer & Jamie Raskin send letter to MD Senate President Bill Ferguson, who has opposed mid-decade redistricting, saying that he should move forward with a new map:
"We believe such an effort can survive any legal attack"
"We believe such an effort can survive any legal attack"
Exclusive: Hoyer, Raskin pressure Ferguson to join national redistricting fight
Reps. Steny Hoyer and Jamie Raskin are sending a letter Monday to the state’s General Assembly, applying pressure on Senate President Bill Ferguson.
www.baltimoresun.com
November 10, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Hoyer is notable because his desire for certain territory in his district helped prevent an 8-0 map with a third Black district in prior remaps (especially in 2012).
If Axios' recent report that he's likely to retire is accurate, it would make an 8-0 map with increased Black representation easier
If Axios' recent report that he's likely to retire is accurate, it would make an 8-0 map with increased Black representation easier
Virginia Dems won 64 of 100 House seats in 2025, their largest majority since they won 64 seats (+ 1 independent) in 1987.
The maps of those elections are drastically different (2025 on left). Darker colors represent flips.
(Wikipedia has maps going back decades) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Vi...
The maps of those elections are drastically different (2025 on left). Darker colors represent flips.
(Wikipedia has maps going back decades) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Vi...
November 10, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Virginia Dems won 64 of 100 House seats in 2025, their largest majority since they won 64 seats (+ 1 independent) in 1987.
The maps of those elections are drastically different (2025 on left). Darker colors represent flips.
(Wikipedia has maps going back decades) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Vi...
The maps of those elections are drastically different (2025 on left). Darker colors represent flips.
(Wikipedia has maps going back decades) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Vi...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
In addition to military/overseas voters, young people and non-white people tend to vote later, and thus are more vulnerable to bans on counting late-arriving ballots. That is why Trump wants this change, and why plenty of red states have lately rushed to do his bidding: boltsmag.org/restrictions...
November 10, 2025 at 3:08 PM
In addition to military/overseas voters, young people and non-white people tend to vote later, and thus are more vulnerable to bans on counting late-arriving ballots. That is why Trump wants this change, and why plenty of red states have lately rushed to do his bidding: boltsmag.org/restrictions...
Counting mail ballots that arrive late but were mailed by Election Day ensures postal service delays don’t disenfranchise voters, particularly active duty military and overseas voters.
Trump and his movement want to prevent them from voting
Trump and his movement want to prevent them from voting
NEW: Supreme Court takes up major new election case on whether states can count ballots that are received after Election Day:
www.nbcnews.com/politics/sup...
www.nbcnews.com/politics/sup...
Supreme Court to weigh imposing new limits on mail-in ballots in a major election case
The Republican National Committee is among those challenging a law in Mississippi, similar to those in many other states, that allow mail-in ballots to be counted after Election Day.
www.nbcnews.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Counting mail ballots that arrive late but were mailed by Election Day ensures postal service delays don’t disenfranchise voters, particularly active duty military and overseas voters.
Trump and his movement want to prevent them from voting
Trump and his movement want to prevent them from voting
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
KILMEADE: Schumer says he's voting no. Did you do this outside leadership?
SHAHEEN: No. We kept leadership informed throughout.
SHAHEEN: No. We kept leadership informed throughout.
November 10, 2025 at 1:27 PM
KILMEADE: Schumer says he's voting no. Did you do this outside leadership?
SHAHEEN: No. We kept leadership informed throughout.
SHAHEEN: No. We kept leadership informed throughout.
The Republican Senate majority is built on minority rule, enabled by unequal representation & the two-party system.
The GOP hasn’t won more total votes or represented more people than Dems since the 1990s. They’ve won the Senate in 7 of 13 elections since 2000 anyway
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
The GOP hasn’t won more total votes or represented more people than Dems since the 1990s. They’ve won the Senate in 7 of 13 elections since 2000 anyway
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 10, 2025 at 1:12 PM
The Republican Senate majority is built on minority rule, enabled by unequal representation & the two-party system.
The GOP hasn’t won more total votes or represented more people than Dems since the 1990s. They’ve won the Senate in 7 of 13 elections since 2000 anyway
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
The GOP hasn’t won more total votes or represented more people than Dems since the 1990s. They’ve won the Senate in 7 of 13 elections since 2000 anyway
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
The coordinated nature of this—none are facing voters in 2026—means that either Schumer approved it or failed in his job as Senate Majority Leader to stop it.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
so currently defectors are:
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
November 10, 2025 at 2:43 AM
The coordinated nature of this—none are facing voters in 2026—means that either Schumer approved it or failed in his job as Senate Majority Leader to stop it.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
seems to me that those democrats inclined not to fight perceive themselves as living through a somewhat ordinary cycle of presidential overreach and backlash and not something much more significant and dangerous
November 10, 2025 at 12:50 PM
seems to me that those democrats inclined not to fight perceive themselves as living through a somewhat ordinary cycle of presidential overreach and backlash and not something much more significant and dangerous
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
This is why this surrender isn't just about this narrow issue but is rather the whole constitutional ballgame:
Democrats are affirmatively signaling they do not want political power at the same time Trump is transitioning the political system into an autocratic one wherein they're denied it forever
Democrats are affirmatively signaling they do not want political power at the same time Trump is transitioning the political system into an autocratic one wherein they're denied it forever
Not that he didn’t already know, but now Trump knows for sure he can roll the Dems every time and there’s no need to negotiate for anything
November 10, 2025 at 3:10 AM
This is why this surrender isn't just about this narrow issue but is rather the whole constitutional ballgame:
Democrats are affirmatively signaling they do not want political power at the same time Trump is transitioning the political system into an autocratic one wherein they're denied it forever
Democrats are affirmatively signaling they do not want political power at the same time Trump is transitioning the political system into an autocratic one wherein they're denied it forever
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Unfortunately still true bsky.app/profile/adam...
American politics makes a lot more sense when you realize that the GOP is afraid of pissing off the GOP base, and the Dems are afraid of pissing off the GOP base, but neither party is afraid of pissing off the Dem base.
November 10, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Unfortunately still true bsky.app/profile/adam...
The insurrection succeeded
NEW: Donald Trump has pardoned a long list of allies in his bid to subvert the 2020 election including:
-Rudy Giuliani
-John Eastman
-Mark Meadows
-Sidney Powell
-Ken Chesebro
-Christina Bobb
-Kelli Ward
-Jenna Ellis
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
-Rudy Giuliani
-John Eastman
-Mark Meadows
-Sidney Powell
-Ken Chesebro
-Christina Bobb
-Kelli Ward
-Jenna Ellis
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
November 10, 2025 at 12:37 PM
The insurrection succeeded
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
reminder to any ambitious Dems waiting in the wings: announcing a primary challenge right now to a squishy Democrat who’s up in 2026, whether they voted tonight to shine Trump’s shoes or not, will almost instantaneously be awash in cash. fortune—and a primary challenge—favors the bold.
November 10, 2025 at 2:14 AM
reminder to any ambitious Dems waiting in the wings: announcing a primary challenge right now to a squishy Democrat who’s up in 2026, whether they voted tonight to shine Trump’s shoes or not, will almost instantaneously be awash in cash. fortune—and a primary challenge—favors the bold.
Why nearly all of them up for reelection next year deserve primaries anyway:
Assume all the yes and no votes from Dem senators are strategic and not sincere votes. The party caucus made a decision. No way to know how many were in favor. Then the caucus decided who would vote yes and no based on what would protect each of them politically the most. That’s how this works.
November 10, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Why nearly all of them up for reelection next year deserve primaries anyway:
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
The caucus meeting was just to orchestrate who would fall on the sword but not be up for a vote in 2026.
so currently defectors are:
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
November 10, 2025 at 2:05 AM
The caucus meeting was just to orchestrate who would fall on the sword but not be up for a vote in 2026.
A big factor in Virginia: The demise of Republican gerrymandering, which the Trump era’s realignment also eroded.
VA’s House had aggressive GOP gerrymanders from 2001-2017.
A racial gerrymandering lawsuit then weakened the GOP’s map for 2019-2021.
Finally, 2023-2025 used a fairer court-drawn map
VA’s House had aggressive GOP gerrymanders from 2001-2017.
A racial gerrymandering lawsuit then weakened the GOP’s map for 2019-2021.
Finally, 2023-2025 used a fairer court-drawn map
Virginia House seats won by Democrats this century, out of the chamber's 100 seats:
in 2001: 32
in 2003: 34
in 2005: 40
in 2007: 44
in 2009: 39
in 2011: 32
in 2013: 33
in 2015: 34
in 2017: 49
in 2019: 55 (first Dem majority since 1999)
in 2021: 48
in 2023: 51
2025, i.e. this week: 64
in 2001: 32
in 2003: 34
in 2005: 40
in 2007: 44
in 2009: 39
in 2011: 32
in 2013: 33
in 2015: 34
in 2017: 49
in 2019: 55 (first Dem majority since 1999)
in 2021: 48
in 2023: 51
2025, i.e. this week: 64
November 9, 2025 at 3:19 PM
A big factor in Virginia: The demise of Republican gerrymandering, which the Trump era’s realignment also eroded.
VA’s House had aggressive GOP gerrymanders from 2001-2017.
A racial gerrymandering lawsuit then weakened the GOP’s map for 2019-2021.
Finally, 2023-2025 used a fairer court-drawn map
VA’s House had aggressive GOP gerrymanders from 2001-2017.
A racial gerrymandering lawsuit then weakened the GOP’s map for 2019-2021.
Finally, 2023-2025 used a fairer court-drawn map
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
the thing about this is that a) small states do not have any interests that are inherent to their size (no less than james madison understood this) b) the senate is organized along party lines which makes the small/big distinction almost irrelevant and c) the filibuster has never been used this way
Underrated aspect of killing the filibuster is making pundit hacks at Cook Political p-p-p-piss their pants
November 8, 2025 at 10:13 PM
the thing about this is that a) small states do not have any interests that are inherent to their size (no less than james madison understood this) b) the senate is organized along party lines which makes the small/big distinction almost irrelevant and c) the filibuster has never been used this way
Dems won Georgia’s Public Service Commission elections by 25-point landslides—their largest for any office since 1998—and improved over 2024 everywhere.
These maps compare results by state House district for:
2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
These maps compare results by state House district for:
2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
November 8, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Dems won Georgia’s Public Service Commission elections by 25-point landslides—their largest for any office since 1998—and improved over 2024 everywhere.
These maps compare results by state House district for:
2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
These maps compare results by state House district for:
2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
Meanwhile at the Supreme Court, the Republican justices made it practically impossible to challenge racial gerrymandering that benefits Republicans last year and are poised to gut the remaining protections of the Voting Rights Act soon
Here ⬇️, the California Republican Party is arguing the merits of diversity and the threats of racial gerrymandering for democratic norms.
Endlessly fascinating to watch political parties take on different positions in different states.
Endlessly fascinating to watch political parties take on different positions in different states.
November 8, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Meanwhile at the Supreme Court, the Republican justices made it practically impossible to challenge racial gerrymandering that benefits Republicans last year and are poised to gut the remaining protections of the Voting Rights Act soon
Virginia’s Senate president pro tem has been posting things like this and calling for passing a 10D-1R congressional map next year 👀
I saw the Washington Post editorial on redistricting today and this is my official response.
November 8, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Virginia’s Senate president pro tem has been posting things like this and calling for passing a 10D-1R congressional map next year 👀
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
every time you think the new WaPo editorial board can't embarrass itself any more, they manage to find a way.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
November 7, 2025 at 6:25 PM
every time you think the new WaPo editorial board can't embarrass itself any more, they manage to find a way.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
When we said democracy was on the ballot we weren't lying.
Trump on ending the filibuster: "If we do it, we will never lose the midterms and we will never lose a general election ... it would be impossible to lose an election."
November 7, 2025 at 6:27 PM
When we said democracy was on the ballot we weren't lying.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Wow: California’s turnout rate was higher for Tuesday’s redistricting referendum than for the 2022 midterms
For my BlueSky peeps, here are the turnout rates (I cross-post my Substack posts on Xitter, but don't post goodies like this)
November 7, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Wow: California’s turnout rate was higher for Tuesday’s redistricting referendum than for the 2022 midterms
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Georgia Republicans say they’d be foolish not to heed the lessons of the PSC races, when Democrats didn’t just run up the score in liberal strongholds. They outperformed their party’s 2024 presidential vote share in all but two of Georgia’s 159 counties.
November 7, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Georgia Republicans say they’d be foolish not to heed the lessons of the PSC races, when Democrats didn’t just run up the score in liberal strongholds. They outperformed their party’s 2024 presidential vote share in all but two of Georgia’s 159 counties.