Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

OK, one more. For folks wondering what thew "new" map might look like, @stephenwolf.bsky.social makes a good point ⬇️.

As Roger Daltry would have said (if he were a redistricting nerd): meet the new map, same as the old map.

bsky.app/profile/step...

Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 1d

North Carolina Republicans proposed an 11-3 gerrymander in 2023, but they instead passed a 10-3 map with one swing district that Dems won.

Trump won all 11 red districts below by at least 10 points, & the GOP could even draw something a bit stronger for 2026 davesredistricting.org/join/803b9fe...

Image of a congressional map proposed by North Carolina Republicans in 2023 that was drawn to elect an 11-to-3 Republican majority in this swing state. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential winner's margin. Donald Trump won the 11 red districts by 10-to-18 point margins while Kamala Harris won the 3 blue districts by 38-to-46 point margins.

4

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

Agree.

1

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

Thanks!

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

I don't have a tidy conclusion--only an apology. That thread was much longer than I anticipated.

Some meetings should be an email. This thread should have been a Substack.

/

1 4

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

Before concluding, I'll just remind everyone that NC has an early filing period, compared to most other states:

www.ncsl.org/elections-an...

(clip from Buncombe County, NC Board of Elections site).

But, as we've seen before, that can change if the court decides it should

1

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

2nd, the chapter was published in 2005, thus likely written in 2003--before both of the 2012 & 2022 redistricting cycles. Since then, (1) voting patterns have become more predictable & ingrained, (2) the measures & mapping software are better & more accessible, making it possible to be more precise

2 2

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

First, the whole idea of a dummymander (as originally conceived) is that changes occur *over time* that fundamentally change the electorate math. A mid-decade redistricting draw doesn't allow much time for change (this map will only hold for 3 cycles--max).

1

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

Because everything in redistricting comes back to NC, it's worth noting that their chapter cites NC's Democratically drawn redistricting in the 1990s as a classic dummymander.

But, even though it's locally relevant, I think the odds of a dummymander here are low for 2 reasons:

1 2

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

A "dummymander" is a term coined by political scientists B. Grofman & T. Brunell in a book chapter:

"A dummymander is a gerrymander by one party that, over the course of the decade, benefits the other party & actually looks as if it was designed by that party rather than the party in power"

1

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

So, what are the risks?

Unfortunately the very nature of the act creates safe districts, so if there's a public opinion backlash, legislators themselves will be insulated--at least at the congressional level.

So, what about this "dummymander" stuff?

1 2

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

And, the US Supreme Court is hearing a case out of Louisiana today that, depending on the outcome, might make Section 2 Claims of racial vote dilution even more difficult (impossible?) to prove (see this from @hansilowang.bsky.social)

www.npr.org/2025/10/15/n...

A Supreme Court ruling on voting rights could boost Republicans' redistricting efforts

A Supreme Court case over Louisiana's congressional map could determine the future of Voting Rights Act protections against racial discrimination and allow Republicans to draw 19 more House seats.

www.npr.org

1 1 3

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

To make matters even better for Republicans, a federal judge recently ruled against challengers in a racial gerrymandering claim on state legislative districts in the same area of the state (see this from @bryanranderson.bsky.social) : andersonalerts.substack.com/p/nc-senate-...

1 2

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

So, a challenge on race might be successful, but one on partisanship is unlikely to be. Which is why it's not only ok, but maybe even beneficial for the Republican majority to say that part out-loud.

1 2

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

The US Supreme Court has said they may not be wild about partisan gerrymandering, but it's outside of their purview & the current iteration of the NC Sup. court has made it clear that partisan claims are likely to get far w/ them, either.

Partisan gerrymandering claims are likely DOA

1 3

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

The legislative defendants will likely argue the goal of their maps is not about race, it's about partisanship. Namely: they want more Republicans in office.

1 2

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

Once passed, this map will be immediately challenged. And, given the racially diverse nature of Northeastern North Carolina, the challenge is likely to be over race w/ the challengers arguing that the maps dilute the black vote & deny African Americans from electing a candidate of their choice.

1 2

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

You may be wondering why the Republicans are being so explicit here. They're saying that they're doing this with the express purpose of getting another Rep seat.

The answer, I believe, is because they believe it may actually benefit them in the inevitable court fight.

1 3

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

That "narrowly tailored veto" was written by none other than former Dem. Gov. and current Senate candidate Roy Cooper (article from Rocky Mount Telegram from 1995 clipped ⤵️)

See Anatomy of a Purple State, Chapters 12 & 13 in Anatomy of a Purple State ( @uncpress.bsky.social) for more background.

2 1 2

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

So, they're going for 1 district & that district is likely to be #nc1.

Why can't the NC Governor (Dem Josh Stein) simply veto that bill & keep NC1 competitive?

As @kyleingram.bsky.social recounts ⬇️the NC Gov doesn't have the power to veto redistricting maps

www.newsobserver.com/news/politic...

NC governor can’t veto a redistricting map. Here’s the unlikely person to blame.

Gov. Roy Cooper wrote the law that prohibits governors from vetoing redistricting maps, back when he was a NC state senator.

www.newsobserver.com

1 1

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

All of this likely/almost certainly has nothing to do w/ Don Davis himself, who is, as his vibes & his DW-Nominate (a measure of congressional ideology) score would attest, is fairly moderate. It's about getting a Republican in that seat. Full stop.

1 2

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

It wouldn't take much to shift #nc1 in a Republican direction. And, it's adjacent to #nc3 & #nc13-- 2 Republican districts which could likely move a hair in the D direction w/o taking out the R incumbents (Murphy & Knott, respectively).

1 2

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

See my chapter in the the forthcoming Roads to Congress book for more on #nc1 in 2024.

1 2

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

Trump won #nc1 by ~3 perc. points in 2024, Biden won it in 2020 & Senator Budd (R) won it in 2022.

There's an argument to be made that if it were not for Libertarian Tom Bailey (who did not live in the district), Davis might have lost & none of this would be happening.

1

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

So, they're going for 1 seat, who's seat will it be? There's little (no?) doubt that the answer is #nc1, currently held by Don Davis. Why #nc01? Because it's the only competitive district in NC & one of the only ones in the southeast.

1 1

Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 1h

The problem w/ ⬆️ 12-2 map is that:

1.It has deviations > 1,000--far exceeding previously established criteria in NC.

2. It has the potential of creating a "dummymander" (more on that later), where in a good year for Ds, the R districts are drawn too competitively & it runs the risks of backfiring.

1 1