Sky Kalkman
@skykalkman.bsky.social
Baseball, limes, data nerdery. I ask a lot of questions.
https://skykalkman.substack.com/
https://skykalkman.substack.com/
Looking at the Guardians FG depth chart and seeing George Valera in right field is a great sign for Chase DeLauter's chances to make the team next spring.
(An even better sign is seeing Chase DeLauter's name in center field.)
(An even better sign is seeing Chase DeLauter's name in center field.)
November 21, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Looking at the Guardians FG depth chart and seeing George Valera in right field is a great sign for Chase DeLauter's chances to make the team next spring.
(An even better sign is seeing Chase DeLauter's name in center field.)
(An even better sign is seeing Chase DeLauter's name in center field.)
This reminds me that I was pretty high on India last spring and that did not turn out very well. I blame the Royals, because it's certainly not my mistake.
We have agreed to terms with Jonathan India on a contract for 2026, avoiding arbitration.
November 21, 2025 at 9:10 PM
This reminds me that I was pretty high on India last spring and that did not turn out very well. I blame the Royals, because it's certainly not my mistake.
Did the Orioles give Taylor Ward a physical?
November 21, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Did the Orioles give Taylor Ward a physical?
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
Matt Shaw gets some hate because of his early season struggles and his...let's call them extracurricular interests, but he was a legitimate force in the second half (4.5 WAR/600 PA pace)
November 21, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Matt Shaw gets some hate because of his early season struggles and his...let's call them extracurricular interests, but he was a legitimate force in the second half (4.5 WAR/600 PA pace)
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
Really hoping Dylan Crews can pull it together.
November 21, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Really hoping Dylan Crews can pull it together.
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
It gets lost in the shuffle, but the Speaker of the House is someone who, by all rights, should’ve had his career ended a decade ago by a Shreveport TV news investigative team.
Fond memories of that time Mike Johnson was president of a local law school that never opened its doors, in part because it was attached to a Baptist college that was losing its accreditation, and in part because it was always a scam from the start
Mike Johnson -- who is, yes, theoretically a lawyer -- has not had a chance to look at the American Constitution because he's been very busy lately, folks, he just can't see everything, gosh, how is he supposed to know if it's wrong that the president called for the execution of congress members?
November 21, 2025 at 3:09 PM
It gets lost in the shuffle, but the Speaker of the House is someone who, by all rights, should’ve had his career ended a decade ago by a Shreveport TV news investigative team.
Who do you have your eye on as a 2025 prospect graduate who didn't overly impress, but could take a nice step forward next year?
November 21, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Who do you have your eye on as a 2025 prospect graduate who didn't overly impress, but could take a nice step forward next year?
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
Effectively Wild mentioned Jose Ramirez being the leader in MVP award shared without ever having won the actual MVP, so I looked up the leaders for both MVP and Cy Young shares without ever having won the award-
November 20, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Effectively Wild mentioned Jose Ramirez being the leader in MVP award shared without ever having won the actual MVP, so I looked up the leaders for both MVP and Cy Young shares without ever having won the award-
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
This comment always makes it’s way in there and I always have the same response.
November 20, 2025 at 2:42 PM
This comment always makes it’s way in there and I always have the same response.
In language and charts, the "Affordability" position is more closely aligned with left-leaning positions. Which aligns with polling on policies (Americans prefer left-leaning policies). Also consistent with right trying to make left seem extreme (e.g. trans rights) and Newsom-bros giving up trans.
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 20, 2025 at 1:59 PM
In language and charts, the "Affordability" position is more closely aligned with left-leaning positions. Which aligns with polling on policies (Americans prefer left-leaning policies). Also consistent with right trying to make left seem extreme (e.g. trans rights) and Newsom-bros giving up trans.
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
“But I have to enable Holocaust denialism because my favorite sports reporters are there”
I haven’t seen this get covered in English yet so let me translate.
Grok is saying that the crematories at Auschwitz’s were conceived as disinfectant chambers, not mass execution and that the law has made it taboo to acknowledge that this is what they were
X is a Nazi site. Get off the Nazi site.
Grok is saying that the crematories at Auschwitz’s were conceived as disinfectant chambers, not mass execution and that the law has made it taboo to acknowledge that this is what they were
X is a Nazi site. Get off the Nazi site.
November 20, 2025 at 12:04 PM
“But I have to enable Holocaust denialism because my favorite sports reporters are there”
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
Absolutely insane that this was allowed to happen.
Cincinnati #Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz played with a torn quad in 2025
www.redlegnation.com/2025/11/19/c...
www.redlegnation.com/2025/11/19/c...
Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz played with a torn quad in 2025 - Redleg Nation
Elly De La Cruz played the second half of the season with a torn quad according to the Cincinnati Reds president of baseball operations.
www.redlegnation.com
November 20, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Absolutely insane that this was allowed to happen.
I only celebrate America Only Men's Day, not this international bullshit.
November 20, 2025 at 1:31 AM
I only celebrate America Only Men's Day, not this international bullshit.
Nice presentation!
November 19, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Nice presentation!
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
TJStats Top 100 MLB Prospects!
Here is my final Top 100 of 2025 complete with scouting reports and grades for every top prospect in baseball:
tjstats.ca/top-100-pros...
Here is my final Top 100 of 2025 complete with scouting reports and grades for every top prospect in baseball:
tjstats.ca/top-100-pros...
Top 100 Prospects - TJStats
TJStats Top 100 Prospects Rank Name Team Position FV Age Height Weight B/T Loading prospects data… Show Full List × Loading player details…
tjstats.ca
November 19, 2025 at 7:24 PM
TJStats Top 100 MLB Prospects!
Here is my final Top 100 of 2025 complete with scouting reports and grades for every top prospect in baseball:
tjstats.ca/top-100-pros...
Here is my final Top 100 of 2025 complete with scouting reports and grades for every top prospect in baseball:
tjstats.ca/top-100-pros...
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
The We Tried Tracker Is Back and Open for Business blogs.fangraphs.com/the-we-tried...
The We Tried Tracker Is Back and Open for Business
I want you to get the word out that we are…primed to be back up.
blogs.fangraphs.com
November 19, 2025 at 4:01 PM
The We Tried Tracker Is Back and Open for Business blogs.fangraphs.com/the-we-tried...
Has anyone studied which projection systems (computer or manual) do the best with *playing time*?
November 19, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Has anyone studied which projection systems (computer or manual) do the best with *playing time*?
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
Everybody needs pitching depth...More than that. No, even more than that.
The average team used 13 starting pitchers last season, with an average of 39 starts made by pitchers who weren't in their team's top 5 in starts!
The average team used 13 starting pitchers last season, with an average of 39 starts made by pitchers who weren't in their team's top 5 in starts!
I love the assumption by ... just about everyone that each team needs five starters when, in the real world, a team needs to be eight deep.
November 19, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Everybody needs pitching depth...More than that. No, even more than that.
The average team used 13 starting pitchers last season, with an average of 39 starts made by pitchers who weren't in their team's top 5 in starts!
The average team used 13 starting pitchers last season, with an average of 39 starts made by pitchers who weren't in their team's top 5 in starts!
Let's have some fun with rotation depth in 2025:
Every team used at least 8 starters. (St. Louis used only 8.)
Half the teams used at least 14 starters. (Atlanta used the most at 19.)
The average team leader in innings threw 179.
2nd: 159
3rd: 134
4th: 109
5th: 85
6th+: 169
Avg start: 5.15 IP
Every team used at least 8 starters. (St. Louis used only 8.)
Half the teams used at least 14 starters. (Atlanta used the most at 19.)
The average team leader in innings threw 179.
2nd: 159
3rd: 134
4th: 109
5th: 85
6th+: 169
Avg start: 5.15 IP
November 19, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Let's have some fun with rotation depth in 2025:
Every team used at least 8 starters. (St. Louis used only 8.)
Half the teams used at least 14 starters. (Atlanta used the most at 19.)
The average team leader in innings threw 179.
2nd: 159
3rd: 134
4th: 109
5th: 85
6th+: 169
Avg start: 5.15 IP
Every team used at least 8 starters. (St. Louis used only 8.)
Half the teams used at least 14 starters. (Atlanta used the most at 19.)
The average team leader in innings threw 179.
2nd: 159
3rd: 134
4th: 109
5th: 85
6th+: 169
Avg start: 5.15 IP
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
I love the assumption by ... just about everyone that each team needs five starters when, in the real world, a team needs to be eight deep.
November 19, 2025 at 3:12 PM
I love the assumption by ... just about everyone that each team needs five starters when, in the real world, a team needs to be eight deep.
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
have this handy, where horizontal lines are the +/-1 standard deviation range for that pitch type. Surprise Factor is indexed to 100, same as Movement Spread & Velocity Spread, so anything above 100 is good and ~120 is truly elite. It does vary some by pitch type. For PtP I think ~65% is average
November 19, 2025 at 2:17 PM
have this handy, where horizontal lines are the +/-1 standard deviation range for that pitch type. Surprise Factor is indexed to 100, same as Movement Spread & Velocity Spread, so anything above 100 is good and ~120 is truly elite. It does vary some by pitch type. For PtP I think ~65% is average
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
Some rules of thumb for the Arsenal Metrics by pitch type:
November 19, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Some rules of thumb for the Arsenal Metrics by pitch type:
Reposted by Sky Kalkman
I need "Stats are down but he played great" to make it into the lexicon.
November 19, 2025 at 1:21 AM
I need "Stats are down but he played great" to make it into the lexicon.
@srbrown70.bsky.social Hey, I'm still trying to get a feel for pitching type probability and surprise factor values. Have you published or do you have numbers in your head that signify bad/avg/good? Or maybe quartiles for each metric? Do the distributions vary much by pitch type?
November 19, 2025 at 2:10 PM
@srbrown70.bsky.social Hey, I'm still trying to get a feel for pitching type probability and surprise factor values. Have you published or do you have numbers in your head that signify bad/avg/good? Or maybe quartiles for each metric? Do the distributions vary much by pitch type?
Among pitchers with 100+ innings in 2024, Grayson Rodriguez was 16th in enoStuff+, 29th in enoLoc+ for *8th* in enoPitching+. Yeah, injuries, but he'll be an Angel for FOUR YEARS.
November 19, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Among pitchers with 100+ innings in 2024, Grayson Rodriguez was 16th in enoStuff+, 29th in enoLoc+ for *8th* in enoPitching+. Yeah, injuries, but he'll be an Angel for FOUR YEARS.