Robert (Bob) Kubinec
@rmkubinec.bsky.social
Political scientist University of South Carolina. Interests: business politics/corruption, Middle East, measurement, Bayesian statistics
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
Pinned
🧵 👋 I'm a political scientist who wrote a book about the recent collapse of two democracies (Egypt & Tunisia).
Given the anxieties of today, let me present a 🧵 with thoughts & resources for:
WHAT TO DO IF YOUR DEMOCRACY COLLAPSES:
Given the anxieties of today, let me present a 🧵 with thoughts & resources for:
WHAT TO DO IF YOUR DEMOCRACY COLLAPSES:
Measurement error once again
This time last year, the Chiefs had a point margin of +49 and were 9-1.
Now they're +73 and 5-5.
Football!
Now they're +73 and 5-5.
Football!
November 20, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Measurement error once again
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Earlier this morning, President Trump threatened me and a group of service and veteran Members of Congress with arrest, trial, and death by hanging.
Here’s my response:
Here’s my response:
November 20, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Earlier this morning, President Trump threatened me and a group of service and veteran Members of Congress with arrest, trial, and death by hanging.
Here’s my response:
Here’s my response:
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Many have asked for the LLM Survey paper. The release was bungled a bit by PNAS, but it is live now: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
The potential existential threat of large language models to online survey research | PNAS
The advancement of large language models poses a severe, potentially existential threat
to online survey research, a fundamental tool for data coll...
www.pnas.org
November 20, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Many have asked for the LLM Survey paper. The release was bungled a bit by PNAS, but it is live now: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The President is calling for Democratic members of Congress to be hanged. This is deplorable, un-American, & an open invitation to political violence.
Servicemembers take their oath to the Constitution, not to any president. I stand with my colleagues who have honorably served this nation.
Servicemembers take their oath to the Constitution, not to any president. I stand with my colleagues who have honorably served this nation.
November 20, 2025 at 6:22 PM
The President is calling for Democratic members of Congress to be hanged. This is deplorable, un-American, & an open invitation to political violence.
Servicemembers take their oath to the Constitution, not to any president. I stand with my colleagues who have honorably served this nation.
Servicemembers take their oath to the Constitution, not to any president. I stand with my colleagues who have honorably served this nation.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
My report on Nonviolent Action against Democratic Erosion is finally out today @harvardash.bsky.social!
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
Nonviolent Action Against Democratic Erosion: The United States in Comparative Perspective – Ash Center
ash.harvard.edu
November 20, 2025 at 5:57 PM
My report on Nonviolent Action against Democratic Erosion is finally out today @harvardash.bsky.social!
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
I try to put the US democracy movement into global comparative perspective.
For the tl;dr crowd, see below for some key takeaways:
ash.harvard.edu/resources/no...
To keep our surveys safe from AI;
Use poetry; speak eloquently; lie.
Use poetry; speak eloquently; lie.
Looks like LLMs are *very* vulnerable to attack via poetic allusion: "curated poetic prompts yielded high attack-success rates (ASR), with some providers exceeding 90% ..."
https://arxiv.org/html/2511.15304v1
https://arxiv.org/html/2511.15304v1
November 20, 2025 at 5:18 PM
To keep our surveys safe from AI;
Use poetry; speak eloquently; lie.
Use poetry; speak eloquently; lie.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
NEW -
Hide and Seek: Offshore Financial Centers and Targeted Sanctions - https://cup.org/4i925GJ
- Menevis Cilizoglu & Chelsea Estancona
#OpenAccess
Hide and Seek: Offshore Financial Centers and Targeted Sanctions - https://cup.org/4i925GJ
- Menevis Cilizoglu & Chelsea Estancona
#OpenAccess
November 20, 2025 at 5:10 PM
NEW -
Hide and Seek: Offshore Financial Centers and Targeted Sanctions - https://cup.org/4i925GJ
- Menevis Cilizoglu & Chelsea Estancona
#OpenAccess
Hide and Seek: Offshore Financial Centers and Targeted Sanctions - https://cup.org/4i925GJ
- Menevis Cilizoglu & Chelsea Estancona
#OpenAccess
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The new Comparative Constitutions Project website is now live! Developed by yours truly. We're also releasing version 5.0 of our Constitutional Chronology and Constitutional Characteristics datasets, updated through 2023. Explore and download: comparativeconstitutionsproject.org
Comparative Constitutions Project
Producing data about constitutions. Impacting the constitution-making process. Promoting peace, justice, and human development.
comparativeconstitutionsproject.org
November 20, 2025 at 4:34 PM
The new Comparative Constitutions Project website is now live! Developed by yours truly. We're also releasing version 5.0 of our Constitutional Chronology and Constitutional Characteristics datasets, updated through 2023. Explore and download: comparativeconstitutionsproject.org
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Interesting paper 🔌💡
🚨 New draft 🚨
We built an LLM-enabled system to measure greenwashing scores in 1 million worldwide Facebook ads.
We found vast networks of Facebook pages sharing pro-fossil fuel messages & show that ads are targeted at left-leaning areas with fossil fuel investments.
Link: doi.org/10.48550/arX...
We built an LLM-enabled system to measure greenwashing scores in 1 million worldwide Facebook ads.
We found vast networks of Facebook pages sharing pro-fossil fuel messages & show that ads are targeted at left-leaning areas with fossil fuel investments.
Link: doi.org/10.48550/arX...
November 20, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Interesting paper 🔌💡
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The current historical moment - esp. embodied by the return of President Trump - has let pundits push a need for so-called "Climate Realism".
@jeffcolgan.bsky.social & I are pleased @iojournal.bsky.social let us write our thoughts on this and subsequent trends in global climate politics. 🧵 below:
@jeffcolgan.bsky.social & I are pleased @iojournal.bsky.social let us write our thoughts on this and subsequent trends in global climate politics. 🧵 below:
Bill Gates, Tony Blair, CFR are rethinking climate change in the Trump era: more "realistically." Can we dismiss this trend or do we need to understand what it means global climate politics? 🧵
@fgenovese.bsky.social and I write for @iojournal.bsky.social
#IOFoGG
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
@fgenovese.bsky.social and I write for @iojournal.bsky.social
#IOFoGG
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Global Climate Politics after the Return of President Trump | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Global Climate Politics after the Return of President Trump - Volume 79 Issue S1
www.cambridge.org
November 20, 2025 at 2:02 PM
The current historical moment - esp. embodied by the return of President Trump - has let pundits push a need for so-called "Climate Realism".
@jeffcolgan.bsky.social & I are pleased @iojournal.bsky.social let us write our thoughts on this and subsequent trends in global climate politics. 🧵 below:
@jeffcolgan.bsky.social & I are pleased @iojournal.bsky.social let us write our thoughts on this and subsequent trends in global climate politics. 🧵 below:
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 20, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
🚨 New draft 🚨
We built an LLM-enabled system to measure greenwashing scores in 1 million worldwide Facebook ads.
We found vast networks of Facebook pages sharing pro-fossil fuel messages & show that ads are targeted at left-leaning areas with fossil fuel investments.
Link: doi.org/10.48550/arX...
We built an LLM-enabled system to measure greenwashing scores in 1 million worldwide Facebook ads.
We found vast networks of Facebook pages sharing pro-fossil fuel messages & show that ads are targeted at left-leaning areas with fossil fuel investments.
Link: doi.org/10.48550/arX...
November 20, 2025 at 2:04 PM
🚨 New draft 🚨
We built an LLM-enabled system to measure greenwashing scores in 1 million worldwide Facebook ads.
We found vast networks of Facebook pages sharing pro-fossil fuel messages & show that ads are targeted at left-leaning areas with fossil fuel investments.
Link: doi.org/10.48550/arX...
We built an LLM-enabled system to measure greenwashing scores in 1 million worldwide Facebook ads.
We found vast networks of Facebook pages sharing pro-fossil fuel messages & show that ads are targeted at left-leaning areas with fossil fuel investments.
Link: doi.org/10.48550/arX...
so the epstein thing is still not over
November 20, 2025 at 3:02 AM
so the epstein thing is still not over
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Looking to keep up with all things Nvidia as it reports Q3 earnings after the bell today?
Follow this feed to get the results, Wall Street's reaction, and more: bsky.app/profile/yaho...
Follow this feed to get the results, Wall Street's reaction, and more: bsky.app/profile/yaho...
November 19, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Looking to keep up with all things Nvidia as it reports Q3 earnings after the bell today?
Follow this feed to get the results, Wall Street's reaction, and more: bsky.app/profile/yaho...
Follow this feed to get the results, Wall Street's reaction, and more: bsky.app/profile/yaho...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Belated but hopefully still exciting #rstats news: bridgesampling version 1.2-1 has just arrived on CRAN: cran.r-project.org/package=brid...
We now finally provide cmdstanr support (!) plus Monte Carlo Standard Error (MCSE), both thx to Giorgio Micaletto and @avehtari.bsky.social!
We now finally provide cmdstanr support (!) plus Monte Carlo Standard Error (MCSE), both thx to Giorgio Micaletto and @avehtari.bsky.social!
bridgesampling: Bridge Sampling for Marginal Likelihoods and Bayes Factors
Provides functions for estimating marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, posterior model probabilities, and normalizing constants in general, via different versions of bridge sampling (Meng & Wong, ...
cran.r-project.org
November 19, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Belated but hopefully still exciting #rstats news: bridgesampling version 1.2-1 has just arrived on CRAN: cran.r-project.org/package=brid...
We now finally provide cmdstanr support (!) plus Monte Carlo Standard Error (MCSE), both thx to Giorgio Micaletto and @avehtari.bsky.social!
We now finally provide cmdstanr support (!) plus Monte Carlo Standard Error (MCSE), both thx to Giorgio Micaletto and @avehtari.bsky.social!
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
What this whole Epstein files saga has shown us is that despite the deep and bitter political divide within our country, a sad and sobering common denominator exists among all Americans—so many people have suffered sexual abuse.
November 19, 2025 at 9:13 PM
What this whole Epstein files saga has shown us is that despite the deep and bitter political divide within our country, a sad and sobering common denominator exists among all Americans—so many people have suffered sexual abuse.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The Eric Schickler essay in Larry Bartel's symposium on "What Trump Has Taught Us About Political Science" is one of the most insightful pieces I've read in 2025.
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
November 19, 2025 at 8:08 PM
The Eric Schickler essay in Larry Bartel's symposium on "What Trump Has Taught Us About Political Science" is one of the most insightful pieces I've read in 2025.
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
We show that a 2.78% change in the density of muons in the pre-Planck period causes a 1.7% increase in early childhood education reading scores due to the Head Start program.
What I really want is the singularity design, I.e., the study is identified based on early changes in the formation of the universe
November 19, 2025 at 6:28 PM
We show that a 2.78% change in the density of muons in the pre-Planck period causes a 1.7% increase in early childhood education reading scores due to the Head Start program.
I was talking with a researcher who said continuous measures they worked on have fallen out of popularity because the DiD models can only do binary covariates 🤦♂️
Good thing academics don't do this
"Actually differences-in-differences would like a word, sir"
"Actually differences-in-differences would like a word, sir"
This is a classic sign of bubble. Everybody trying to jump on the bandwagon and relabel themselves as "that thing everyone is talking about".
November 19, 2025 at 6:21 PM
I was talking with a researcher who said continuous measures they worked on have fallen out of popularity because the DiD models can only do binary covariates 🤦♂️
Good thing academics don't do this
"Actually differences-in-differences would like a word, sir"
"Actually differences-in-differences would like a word, sir"
This is a classic sign of bubble. Everybody trying to jump on the bandwagon and relabel themselves as "that thing everyone is talking about".
I don’t want to seem out of touch but I don’t actually understand the economy anymore.
November 19, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Good thing academics don't do this
"Actually differences-in-differences would like a word, sir"
"Actually differences-in-differences would like a word, sir"
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The White House reportedly intervened on behalf of accused sex trafficker Andrew Tate during a federal investigation
The White House Intervened On Behalf Of Accused Sex Trafficker Andrew Tate During Federal Investigation
The official who delivered the message, Paul Ingrassia, previously represented the Tate brothers before joining the White House.
www.huffpost.com
November 19, 2025 at 4:39 PM
The White House reportedly intervened on behalf of accused sex trafficker Andrew Tate during a federal investigation
The other point I'll make is that the Westwood paper makes the argument that a state intelligence service could use LLMs to infiltrate surveys.
I find that far-fetched, and to be frank, outside the paper's empirical support. Intel agencies can also just recruit a researcher in the survey company.
I find that far-fetched, and to be frank, outside the paper's empirical support. Intel agencies can also just recruit a researcher in the survey company.
November 19, 2025 at 3:17 PM
The other point I'll make is that the Westwood paper makes the argument that a state intelligence service could use LLMs to infiltrate surveys.
I find that far-fetched, and to be frank, outside the paper's empirical support. Intel agencies can also just recruit a researcher in the survey company.
I find that far-fetched, and to be frank, outside the paper's empirical support. Intel agencies can also just recruit a researcher in the survey company.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
More #Geothermal stanning, and I for one am here for it.
This time from @economist.com with solid visuals throughout but these two stood out:
1: @cleanaircatf.bsky.social geothermal potential map
2: @timlatimer.bsky.social Fervo’s shrinking drilling times
www.economist.com/interactive/...
This time from @economist.com with solid visuals throughout but these two stood out:
1: @cleanaircatf.bsky.social geothermal potential map
2: @timlatimer.bsky.social Fervo’s shrinking drilling times
www.economist.com/interactive/...
November 19, 2025 at 2:51 PM
More #Geothermal stanning, and I for one am here for it.
This time from @economist.com with solid visuals throughout but these two stood out:
1: @cleanaircatf.bsky.social geothermal potential map
2: @timlatimer.bsky.social Fervo’s shrinking drilling times
www.economist.com/interactive/...
This time from @economist.com with solid visuals throughout but these two stood out:
1: @cleanaircatf.bsky.social geothermal potential map
2: @timlatimer.bsky.social Fervo’s shrinking drilling times
www.economist.com/interactive/...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The @wsj.com drops results of a major investigation into Syria's mass graves. The numbers are staggering.
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Bodies Keep Turning Up in Syria, Haunting New Leaders
In the months after the fall of the Assad regime, Syrians have continued to discover large-scale burial sites, sometimes by chance. “Everyone who’s missing now…they’re buried in the ground somewhere.”
www.wsj.com
November 19, 2025 at 11:57 AM
The @wsj.com drops results of a major investigation into Syria's mass graves. The numbers are staggering.
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
I suppose the one bright side of our outdated infrastructure for journal publishing is that the websites are so archaic that the Cloudfare disruption did basically nothing 😅.
November 19, 2025 at 1:41 PM
I suppose the one bright side of our outdated infrastructure for journal publishing is that the websites are so archaic that the Cloudfare disruption did basically nothing 😅.