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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · 9d

It really is! And it's important context that our lawmakers aren't quite grasping -- especially in how future demand can be met with existing refinery capacity and imports (even after closures + outages). See, e.g., this graph from a report I did for CA legislators:

Graph showing California refinery capacity and maximum in-state monthly gasoline demand across different CEC forecasts, in thousands of barrels per day, indicating that existing capacity is sufficient to cover expected demand under three different scenarios

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Reposted by Paasha Mahdavi

Department of Land Economy @landeconomy.bsky.social · 16d

🌏✨We are looking for a Research Associate in Climate Governance, who will work with @harrovanasselt.bsky.social on the EU-funded ACCLIMATE project. The application deadline is 27th October 2025. 🔗See here on our website for more details, including how to apply: www.landecon.cam.ac.uk/vacancy/job-...

Job Vacancy: Research Associate in Climate Governance (Fixed Term)

Application deadline: 27th October 2025.

www.landecon.cam.ac.uk

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Reposted by Paasha Mahdavi

Jonas Meckling @jonasmeckling.bsky.social · 17d

🌍 New in @nature.com: The geoeconomic turn in decarbonization, with data from Simon Evenett et al. and @industrialpolicy.bsky.social @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social @natureatcal.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41... 🧵

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Reposted by Paasha Mahdavi

Climate.us @climate.us · 19d

🚨 NCA5 is now LIVE! 🚨

They took it down, but we've brought it back at: nca5.climate.us

Bookmark. 👏 this. 👏 page. 👏

This is just our first step in restoring trusted science information that Americans need to understand what's happening with the climate.

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · 23d

It’s been an honor to work alongside the Environmental Defense Center against Sable and its misguided plans to restart the dangerous Santa Ynez Unit and its pipelines.

And kudos to the Santa Barbara DA for having the courage to take on this fight 👊👊👊

Ian James @ianjames.bsky.social · 23d

A Texas company is trying to restart an oil operation off the California coast. It now faces criminal charges alleging it knowingly violated environmental laws. @grace2e.bsky.social @latimes.com www.latimes.com/environment/...

Company faces criminal charges as it seeks to restart California offshore oil operation

A Texas company is trying to restart a controversial oil operation off Santa Barbara County’s coast. It now faces criminal charges alleging it violated environmental laws.

www.latimes.com

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · 23d

Last week’s bills are important steps in California’s contribution to fighting climate change. But the inclusion of oil-industry handouts in bills like SB 237 was a raw deal we didn’t need to make.

My thoughts for @lauraklivans.bsky.social @kqednews.kqed.org

www.kqed.org/science/1998...

Newsom Signs Climate, Energy Bills Charting State Course Through Perilous ‘Mid-Transition’ | KQED

California has been at the forefront of bold climate policy. Now, the state is one of the first to face a messy transition from fossil fuels to clean energy.

www.kqed.org

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Reposted by Paasha Mahdavi

Climate Tracker @climate.skyfleet.blue · 23d

‘A defining moment’: Trinidad and Tobago at a crossroads as oil runs out #Climate

‘A defining moment’: Trinidad and Tobago at a crossroads as oil runs out

Fossil fuels made the nation prosperous but as reserves dwindle, do they drill deeper, even as the Caribbean feels the heat of the climate crisis, or shift to a greener economy?

www.theguardian.com

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · 29d

That’s a good comparison but my big issue with SB 237 on timing though is the 10-year sunset

Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · 29d

Yes, though Gunda’s letter stressed the other levers (imports and efficiency/transition), rather than prioritizing opening up leasing in Kern. His testimony yesterday backtracked on the latter, perhaps feeling the pressure.

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · 29d

I hate to disagree with you @michaelwara.bsky.social but this was a raw deal. Unnecessary given projected refinery capacity (see below, based on CEC data), not to mention the minimal relationship between in-state production and gas prices.

Let’s call this bill what it is: a deal with the devil

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · 29d

Well, it’s official.

Lawmakers passed the drill-baby-drill bill today, despite pushback across CA. I was proud to stand w/ @biologicaldiversity.org, EDC & 250+ orgs in opposition.

Sadly, propping up oil is the Faustian bargain to pass climate policy…

biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press...

California Caves to Oil Industry With Health, Environmental Rollbacks

The California legislature today passed a bill that greenlights tens of thousands of new oil and gas drilling permits in Kern County over the next decade with no further environmental review.

biologicaldiversity.org

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · 29d

Fantastic new report from @climaterights.bsky.social on why Sable’s Las Flores pipeline is such a public hazard — and why it must be retired once and for all.

cri.org/wp-content/u...

Picture of climate activists with a “Don’t enable Sable” sign

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · Sep 12

"Drill, baby, drill" has come to California.

Happening now in the Assembly:

www.assembly.ca.gov/events/media...

If this bill moves forward, lawmakers must remove provisions to expand oil drilling. Contact your reps and tell them to vote NO on SB 237 as written: docs.google.com/document/d/1...

California State Assembly

www.assembly.ca.gov

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Reposted by Paasha Mahdavi

Nick Brumfield @nickjbrumfield.bsky.social · Sep 12

The UAE going from a US-backed hydrocarbon-based sub-imperial contractor to a China-backed green energy sub-imperial contractor via Masdar may in fact be the geopolitical move of the century

Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · Sep 12

Great thread about a new report on China's global investment in green energy transition.

The fact that $50bn (~25% of recent investment) is in the Gulf/MENA region underscores the ways in which China is winning the geo-economic competition there (with mid-term implications for petro-dollars?).

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · Sep 12

9/ The US is ceding the industries of the future to China while asking allies to do the same. Meanwhile, developing countries - representing most of global energy demand growth - are getting the manufacturing capacity they need from China instead.

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · Sep 12

For a new well, that would require a much higher price given the higher drilling costs involved now. I’m not so sure about $80/barrel though, that really depends on the field and asset. Here’s a good analysis from the Dallas Fed: www.dallasfed.org/research/ene...

Energy Indicators, May 2025

Energy executives surveyed by the Dallas Fed reported an increase in the price of oil needed to justify drilling, as economic uncertainty and planned production increases from OPEC+ nations pushed oil...

www.dallasfed.org

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · Sep 11

Breakeven depends on lots of financial factors, so it’s very company-specific. Sable for example is roughly $44/barrel, so it’d need prices above that.

But to outcompete most foreign imports you’d have to be well below $30/barrel in lifting costs.

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · Sep 11

“We all don’t want an import model” - @asmloridwilson.bsky.social

Sad to see this justification for SB 237, which props up California’s (dirty, carbon-intensive) oil.

Parts of SB 237—on regs for offshore oil—are worthy, but one good spice can’t save a bad dish.

www.latimes.com/california/s...

California legislators strike last-minute deal to help oil industry but limit offshore drilling

The compromise would streamline environmental approvals for new wells in oil-rich Kern County and make offshore drilling more difficult by tightening the safety and regulatory requirements for pipelin...

www.latimes.com

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · Sep 10

UPDATE: vote pushed from today’s session, so there’s still time to contact your reps!!

If you live in California, text “SIGN PLRZYJ” to 50409

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Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com · Sep 9

CA Senate votes today to protect our coastlines from offshore drilling.

Big Oil spews misinfo on “clean, affordable oil” we need to stave off crisis. Proving Brandolini's law (@andrewdessler.com), I’ve been working nonstop to refute their BS.

If you're in CA, call your rep to vote YES on AB1448!

Factsheet calling State Senators to vote YES on AB 1448

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