Paul Harvey
@paulharvey.theoutfield.nyc
Kayaker, former college wrestler (Wheaton ‘10), foster/bio/adoptive dad, husband to the world’s best wife. Writer for The Outfield and American Soccer Analysis
Pinned
I have been working on a new USA Soccer stat hub for a couple of months now in Tableau, as I grew increasingly dissatisfied with what I put together at the start of 2025. It's *finally* ready for public consumption. The images here don't show the half of it:
public.tableau.com/views/MLSAdv...
public.tableau.com/views/MLSAdv...
3 NYCFC players on this list, and if Keaton Parks (who had over 6 per 90, in line with the top 5 here) was fit it would likely be 4.
But which players are helping these teams create this differential? With my handy new player analysis, we can easily answer this question.
Here are the top 40 players in total recoveries for the season.
Here are the top 40 players in total recoveries for the season.
November 22, 2025 at 12:36 AM
3 NYCFC players on this list, and if Keaton Parks (who had over 6 per 90, in line with the top 5 here) was fit it would likely be 4.
Reposted by Paul Harvey
Friday Stat Dump: MLS 2025 Ball-winning Action leaders.
Back in June, I wrote about the value of recovery actions in a FSD thread and for Backheeled.
In short, I demonstrated a solid positive correlation between recovery differential and goal differential.
1/
www.backheeled.com/winning-duel...
Back in June, I wrote about the value of recovery actions in a FSD thread and for Backheeled.
In short, I demonstrated a solid positive correlation between recovery differential and goal differential.
1/
www.backheeled.com/winning-duel...
Does winning duels lead to winning MLS games? Finding a defensive stat that really matters
We found the real “50-50 balls”, the ones every soccer player on the planet was told to win growing up.
www.backheeled.com
November 22, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Friday Stat Dump: MLS 2025 Ball-winning Action leaders.
Back in June, I wrote about the value of recovery actions in a FSD thread and for Backheeled.
In short, I demonstrated a solid positive correlation between recovery differential and goal differential.
1/
www.backheeled.com/winning-duel...
Back in June, I wrote about the value of recovery actions in a FSD thread and for Backheeled.
In short, I demonstrated a solid positive correlation between recovery differential and goal differential.
1/
www.backheeled.com/winning-duel...
The MLS to LMX and back again steps:
1. MLS team identifies undervalued player
2. Player performs in MLS
3. LMX team overpays for player (and many others)
4. Player can't find consistent time
5. Player does not perform
6. Player is sold back to MLS at a loss
1. MLS team identifies undervalued player
2. Player performs in MLS
3. LMX team overpays for player (and many others)
4. Player can't find consistent time
5. Player does not perform
6. Player is sold back to MLS at a loss
🇵🇱 Sources: Mateusz Bogusz is likely to leave Cruz Azul this winter, with several MLS clubs interested.
New England Revolution hold Bogusz's discovery rights (priority to negotiate).
Bogusz, 24, joined Cruz Azul from LAFC last winter in ~$9m deal. Had 15g/7a in 2024 for LAFC.
New England Revolution hold Bogusz's discovery rights (priority to negotiate).
Bogusz, 24, joined Cruz Azul from LAFC last winter in ~$9m deal. Had 15g/7a in 2024 for LAFC.
November 19, 2025 at 4:20 PM
The MLS to LMX and back again steps:
1. MLS team identifies undervalued player
2. Player performs in MLS
3. LMX team overpays for player (and many others)
4. Player can't find consistent time
5. Player does not perform
6. Player is sold back to MLS at a loss
1. MLS team identifies undervalued player
2. Player performs in MLS
3. LMX team overpays for player (and many others)
4. Player can't find consistent time
5. Player does not perform
6. Player is sold back to MLS at a loss
July 19th, 2026, MetLife stadium:
Gio Reyna coolly finishes a Sebastian Berhalter through ball in the 109th minute. They embrace while a flock of pure white doves flies across the stadium.
A few months later, total world peace is achieved and humanity begins to leave for the stars
Gio Reyna coolly finishes a Sebastian Berhalter through ball in the 109th minute. They embrace while a flock of pure white doves flies across the stadium.
A few months later, total world peace is achieved and humanity begins to leave for the stars
November 19, 2025 at 1:27 AM
July 19th, 2026, MetLife stadium:
Gio Reyna coolly finishes a Sebastian Berhalter through ball in the 109th minute. They embrace while a flock of pure white doves flies across the stadium.
A few months later, total world peace is achieved and humanity begins to leave for the stars
Gio Reyna coolly finishes a Sebastian Berhalter through ball in the 109th minute. They embrace while a flock of pure white doves flies across the stadium.
A few months later, total world peace is achieved and humanity begins to leave for the stars
Reposted by Paul Harvey
If America's best athletes all played soccer...
we'd have a much better basketball team.
we'd have a much better basketball team.
November 18, 2025 at 1:55 PM
If America's best athletes all played soccer...
we'd have a much better basketball team.
we'd have a much better basketball team.
Honestly it should be a huge knock against Orlando that it took them this long to make him a starter
Alex Freeman’s story I feel like is almost underrated. Became a full time starter this season and not only was MLS Best XI but is also contributing to the national team. His ascendence in 2025 is remarkable
November 19, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Honestly it should be a huge knock against Orlando that it took them this long to make him a starter
How many right backs in the world can do what Freeman is doing tonight?
November 19, 2025 at 12:40 AM
How many right backs in the world can do what Freeman is doing tonight?
Oh maybe they ARE going to sign Christian Espinoza
Atlanta casts off Leo Afonso, Josh Cohen, Brooks Lennon, and former Union prospect Nyk Sessock.
November 18, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Oh maybe they ARE going to sign Christian Espinoza
If America's best athletes all played soccer...
we'd have a much better basketball team.
we'd have a much better basketball team.
November 18, 2025 at 1:55 PM
If America's best athletes all played soccer...
we'd have a much better basketball team.
we'd have a much better basketball team.
Reposted by Paul Harvey
Nashville SC turned over a ton of their roster, clearing up plenty of cap space to make some major additions this winter. It's going to be an incredibly busy offseason for the 'Yotes, and I broke down their biggest needs with CCC less than 80 days away.
www.sixonefivesoccer.com/analysis-nas...
www.sixonefivesoccer.com/analysis-nas...
November 17, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Nashville SC turned over a ton of their roster, clearing up plenty of cap space to make some major additions this winter. It's going to be an incredibly busy offseason for the 'Yotes, and I broke down their biggest needs with CCC less than 80 days away.
www.sixonefivesoccer.com/analysis-nas...
www.sixonefivesoccer.com/analysis-nas...
Good news guys there’s still 28 teams we can manufacture rumors about until Tom has to deny them
There is also ZERO truth in any rumor linking James Rodriguez with Toronto FC.
There is ZERO truth in rumors linking James Rodriguez with Orlando City, I'm told.
November 17, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Good news guys there’s still 28 teams we can manufacture rumors about until Tom has to deny them
If NYCFC needs an emergency like-for-like for Alonso Martinez, Oalex Anderson would be a great option. He has similar speed and decisiveness on the break and could pick up some of the slack for a very affordable price
November 17, 2025 at 4:54 PM
If NYCFC needs an emergency like-for-like for Alonso Martinez, Oalex Anderson would be a great option. He has similar speed and decisiveness on the break and could pick up some of the slack for a very affordable price
Big fan of Kees Smit, I feel like he’s going to go for big money in the next year or so
Kees Smit put himself on a lot more radars with his performance against Crystal Palace in Europe last week. He more than held his own against Premier League players on one of the biggest stages of his career to date, showcasing his do-it-all skillset.
Llew Davies has analysed it in detail.
Llew Davies has analysed it in detail.
Breaking down Kees Smit
A touch-by-touch analysis of the young Dutch midfielder's starmaking moment
scoutedftbl.com
November 17, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Big fan of Kees Smit, I feel like he’s going to go for big money in the next year or so
Reposted by Paul Harvey
Rondos, reinforcement learning, and Rosalía: are footballers supposed to be artists or accountants?
www.getgoalsideanalytics.com/footballers-...
www.getgoalsideanalytics.com/footballers-...
Are footballers artists or accountants?
With football data and machine learning models getting closer to finding 'right' answers, we have to consider what a footballer really is.
www.getgoalsideanalytics.com
November 16, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Rondos, reinforcement learning, and Rosalía: are footballers supposed to be artists or accountants?
www.getgoalsideanalytics.com/footballers-...
www.getgoalsideanalytics.com/footballers-...
Reposted by Paul Harvey
I have about 30 mins of highlights that I’m waiting to post after the season (so I can add post season) ends. It includes all the other things you mentioned
# fellow umbc alum
# fellow umbc alum
Teams that would get immediately better with Calheira at starting striker:
SKC
Portland
Galaxy
Houston
Miami (🙊)
San Diego
Basically every team could use him as depth.
It’s not just the goal scoring; he’s really good at all manner of forward play including hold-up, dribbling, and passing
SKC
Portland
Galaxy
Houston
Miami (🙊)
San Diego
Basically every team could use him as depth.
It’s not just the goal scoring; he’s really good at all manner of forward play including hold-up, dribbling, and passing
If Taylor Calheira isn’t in MLS next season I’ll scream.
Begging some front office to learn the White/Oluwaseyi/Musovski lesson.
Begging some front office to learn the White/Oluwaseyi/Musovski lesson.
November 16, 2025 at 10:45 PM
I have about 30 mins of highlights that I’m waiting to post after the season (so I can add post season) ends. It includes all the other things you mentioned
# fellow umbc alum
# fellow umbc alum
Teams that would get immediately better with Calheira at starting striker:
SKC
Portland
Galaxy
Houston
Miami (🙊)
San Diego
Basically every team could use him as depth.
It’s not just the goal scoring; he’s really good at all manner of forward play including hold-up, dribbling, and passing
SKC
Portland
Galaxy
Houston
Miami (🙊)
San Diego
Basically every team could use him as depth.
It’s not just the goal scoring; he’s really good at all manner of forward play including hold-up, dribbling, and passing
If Taylor Calheira isn’t in MLS next season I’ll scream.
Begging some front office to learn the White/Oluwaseyi/Musovski lesson.
Begging some front office to learn the White/Oluwaseyi/Musovski lesson.
Get out the @johnspacemuller.com long throw-in claxon.
Taylor Calheira finishes off the chance for his second of the night as @fctulsa.bsky.social doubles its lead. #USL-C
Taylor Calheira finishes off the chance for his second of the night as @fctulsa.bsky.social doubles its lead. #USL-C
November 16, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Teams that would get immediately better with Calheira at starting striker:
SKC
Portland
Galaxy
Houston
Miami (🙊)
San Diego
Basically every team could use him as depth.
It’s not just the goal scoring; he’s really good at all manner of forward play including hold-up, dribbling, and passing
SKC
Portland
Galaxy
Houston
Miami (🙊)
San Diego
Basically every team could use him as depth.
It’s not just the goal scoring; he’s really good at all manner of forward play including hold-up, dribbling, and passing
I feel like Ray Hudson is the only one who can do justice to the things Julian Love does on a football field
November 15, 2025 at 5:32 PM
I feel like Ray Hudson is the only one who can do justice to the things Julian Love does on a football field
Alonso Martinez with a rumored knee injury while on international duty.
If it’s serious, that leaves NYCFC without a striker besides 17 year old Seymour Reid.
If it’s serious, that leaves NYCFC without a striker besides 17 year old Seymour Reid.
November 14, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Alonso Martinez with a rumored knee injury while on international duty.
If it’s serious, that leaves NYCFC without a striker besides 17 year old Seymour Reid.
If it’s serious, that leaves NYCFC without a striker besides 17 year old Seymour Reid.
Not really tearing it up in MLS Next Pro, although SKC 2 was the worst team in the league and that could affect the overall outlook
November 14, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Not really tearing it up in MLS Next Pro, although SKC 2 was the worst team in the league and that could affect the overall outlook
Reposted by Paul Harvey
Sadly, no.
Morocco advanced 4-3 from the spot after scoring a 90th-minute equalizer. That's it for the #U17MNT.
Morocco advanced 4-3 from the spot after scoring a 90th-minute equalizer. That's it for the #U17MNT.
The U17 USMNT is about to go into penalties against Morocco. This generation has played, for the most part, in MLS Next Pro, where every draw goes into penalties by default.
Will that extra emphasis pay off?
Will that extra emphasis pay off?
November 14, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Sadly, no.
Morocco advanced 4-3 from the spot after scoring a 90th-minute equalizer. That's it for the #U17MNT.
Morocco advanced 4-3 from the spot after scoring a 90th-minute equalizer. That's it for the #U17MNT.
Reposted by Paul Harvey
This graphic (not mine) also does a really good job showing how much MLS is impacted by extreme heat, relative to other leagues.
I'm concerned about impact on in-person attendance like many people. But I also think that playing in 35º will result in better matches than playing in 95º.
I'm concerned about impact on in-person attendance like many people. But I also think that playing in 35º will result in better matches than playing in 95º.
November 14, 2025 at 4:55 PM
This graphic (not mine) also does a really good job showing how much MLS is impacted by extreme heat, relative to other leagues.
I'm concerned about impact on in-person attendance like many people. But I also think that playing in 35º will result in better matches than playing in 95º.
I'm concerned about impact on in-person attendance like many people. But I also think that playing in 35º will result in better matches than playing in 95º.
The U17 USMNT is about to go into penalties against Morocco. This generation has played, for the most part, in MLS Next Pro, where every draw goes into penalties by default.
Will that extra emphasis pay off?
Will that extra emphasis pay off?
November 14, 2025 at 5:43 PM
The U17 USMNT is about to go into penalties against Morocco. This generation has played, for the most part, in MLS Next Pro, where every draw goes into penalties by default.
Will that extra emphasis pay off?
Will that extra emphasis pay off?
Reposted by Paul Harvey
Next up in the offseason preview is CF Montreal, who went through another tough season. They actually admitted to starting a rebuild in 2025. Can they continue building off the young players they’ve acquired? What’s their cap situation like?
For FAM:
For FAM:
2026 Off-Season Preview: CF Montreal
Montreal had turmoil once again, but was there a silver lining going into 2026?
open.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Next up in the offseason preview is CF Montreal, who went through another tough season. They actually admitted to starting a rebuild in 2025. Can they continue building off the young players they’ve acquired? What’s their cap situation like?
For FAM:
For FAM:
Atlanta would be a good landing spot
🇦🇷 Sources: San Jose Earthquakes star Cristian Espinoza is a free agent, as club didn't pick up his 2026 option before contract's deadline passed.
Quakes made a new contract offer to Espinoza, who prefers to stay in MLS but is open abroad too.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
Quakes made a new contract offer to Espinoza, who prefers to stay in MLS but is open abroad too.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
Earthquakes star Espinoza becomes free agent after option expires: Sources
The 30-year-old playmaker will be one of the most sought-after names in MLS free agency this winter
www.nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Atlanta would be a good landing spot
Mexico’s U17s fall in the group stage of the U17 World Cup. This tournament has been a disaster for CONCACAF, and hopefully this will lead to a reconsideration of the non-competitive qualifying process that saw most teams play 0 challenging or meaningful games.
November 10, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Mexico’s U17s fall in the group stage of the U17 World Cup. This tournament has been a disaster for CONCACAF, and hopefully this will lead to a reconsideration of the non-competitive qualifying process that saw most teams play 0 challenging or meaningful games.