Arman Kafai
@armankafai.bsky.social
1.2K followers 400 following 870 posts
Current: 🚙 Data Analyst Contributor: ✍️ @backheeled.com Prev: ⚽️ Data w/ FC Dallas ☄️UT Dallas ‘19/20 BS/MS Economics https://footyanalyticmusings.substack.com/
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I analyzed some of the more interesting storylines from the latest roster profiles and GAM release as we enter the end of the MLS regular season. How will the new rules about carrying over GAM impact teams in 2026? Seems like a bit more than we expected.
GAM makes the world go round
How the September 2025 GAM Release sets up teams for the 2026 off-season
open.substack.com
Maybe it’s because the ecosystems have been split between BlueSky and X but even then I’m not sure. Also could be because I’m in Dallas and well… not much of a presence here compared to other cities
I mean it’s always had that though. Maybe it’s an indictment of how closely I’ve been following but I feel like I’ve been following as close as I used to? Dunno, just feels like everything is dead
Is it just me or is MLS just really slowing down going into the playoffs? Shouldn’t be with all of the great storylines but it sure feels like it’s dragging on compared to other seasons
Reposted by Arman Kafai
An answer to a question I asked in a news conference yesterday earned a round of applause from journalists here in Suriname as Shaquille Pinas described manager Stanley Menzo.

Here's profile of Menzo, who has every right to feel bitter but chooses joy:
getconcacafed.substack.com/p/menzo-move...
🇸🇷 Menzo moves past hardships to push Suriname 'sons' toward World Cup
The Ajax legend has The Natio atop Group A ahead of Friday's key match against Guatemala.
getconcacafed.substack.com
Why am I highlighting the East? Nashville/Orlando are gonna be lower seeded teams. Miami ignore their xGD… they have Messi.

But NYCFC wasn’t too shabby either. All are either gonna be lower seeds or the four seed. Gonna be tough
Love this from Tony. I’m looking at the 7 teams that have a positive xGD vs playoff teams. Seems like most teams will beat bad teams, but very few teams will consistently perform vs playoff level teams.

The East is looking like a bloodbath
lmk if this is along the lines of what you're looking for. happy to iterate
Reposted by Arman Kafai
I analyzed some of the more interesting storylines from the latest roster profiles and GAM release as we enter the end of the MLS regular season. How will the new rules about carrying over GAM impact teams in 2026? Seems like a bit more than we expected.
GAM makes the world go round
How the September 2025 GAM Release sets up teams for the 2026 off-season
open.substack.com
Marcel Hartel was a great player joining MLS from St. Pauli and again, like we say with Musa, has been wasted at St. Louis. Legit a great player imo that’s been stuck on mediocre STL team
I analyzed some of the more interesting storylines from the latest roster profiles and GAM release as we enter the end of the MLS regular season. How will the new rules about carrying over GAM impact teams in 2026? Seems like a bit more than we expected.
GAM makes the world go round
How the September 2025 GAM Release sets up teams for the 2026 off-season
open.substack.com
That’s totally fair. Just watched a ton of Dallas games and without him they’d be wooden spoon hands down. His goals added isn’t crazy as well relative to the other guys but still top 30 (and I’d wager higher as of recently)
Is there a clear consensus on how to build a roster? Not yet, but going into our first full year, we're going to see how the GAM that wasn't used due to teams using the GAM received from the model will impact roster construction in 2026.
One thing that I've been looking at is the roster construction mechanisms for the teams that are in the Supporters' Shield Race.

-PHI (3+3 but could be 2+4)
-CIN (2+4)
-SD (2+4)
-VAN (2+4)
-NYC (2+4)
-MIA (3+3)
-MIN (2+4)
-CHA (2+4)
-NSH (3+3)
-LAFC (2+4)

7/10 are 2+4
Alright I’m scratching what I’m saying. He should be in the MVP race. I don’t care about where Dallas is on the table. Had two key moments in that game that led to both goals for Dallas. It’s unreal
Reposted by Arman Kafai
I'm sure FC Dallas would want a big-time fee, but I'd be shocked if MLS teams weren't sniffing around Petar Musa this winter in hopes of acquiring him in a cashfer.
If FC Dallas wasn’t so low in the table, we’d be talking about Petar Musa as an MVP candidate. When it comes to the definition of MVP for a team, he’s almost the perfect example. Leads the team in scoring by an insane margin, leads them in npxG, basically leads the team in xA.
FCD would be struggling without him. But one of his impacts is just his consistent work rate. On Julio’s goal Saturday, he won a header off a double team, which kept the ball alive for the goal. It’s crazy that Dallas has struggled like they have over the last two seasons with him there
If FC Dallas wasn’t so low in the table, we’d be talking about Petar Musa as an MVP candidate. When it comes to the definition of MVP for a team, he’s almost the perfect example. Leads the team in scoring by an insane margin, leads them in npxG, basically leads the team in xA.
Assume that every club will carry this total over to 2026.

Holy shit Minnesota
The club roster profiles have been updated to now include the amount of GAM remaining for each club in 2025.

MLS eliminated expiration dates for GAM earlier this year (apart from GAM received when selecting the U22 Initiative Roster Construction Model).
mlssoccer.box.com/s/c2ok055zmd...
Reposted by Arman Kafai
I uhhhh... have a podcast now (it's about women's soccer though so it's ok)
Our first episode is up! Immediate reactions as the KC Current defeat Seattle at home to lift the NWSL Shield. Plus, we discuss the teams vying for spots in this year's playoffs, including the Wave, Gotham, Courage, and more.

Listen on Spotify and Apple podcasts.

open.spotify.com/episode/6VRn...
Current Clinch the Shield + the Playoff Race is On!
open.spotify.com
Add a game-winning assist to the list
Austin FC at the death! Holy smokes, what a last couple of games for CJ Fodrey. GW goal vs SKC and now the goal to put them through to the USOC Final.
Latte Lath is on $4M. Musa is on $2.5M. Let’s say Musa wants to match that to move, so the same
Okay maybe not exactly $23M but slightly higher than the $20M. Player outside of MLS, maybe from another good league in Europe