Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
@mattgiulp.bsky.social
Did a master in Social Sciences at UC3M. Now doing a PhD at the Universidad Pablo de Olavide.
Trying to figure out something about political parties, referenda, national identities... that kind of stuff.
A chess player by passion, not by talent or skill.
Trying to figure out something about political parties, referenda, national identities... that kind of stuff.
A chess player by passion, not by talent or skill.
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
New Publication with @lhaffert.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social!
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 9:48 AM
New Publication with @lhaffert.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social!
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
🚨 New publication: “The Wages of Ethnic Power: Socioeconomic Status, Group Threat, and Anti-Immigrant Attitudes in Western Europe” 🚨
Just published in the International Journal of Comparative Sociology with Charles Seguin and Brandon Gorman.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Just published in the International Journal of Comparative Sociology with Charles Seguin and Brandon Gorman.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
The wages of ethnic power: Socioeconomic status, group threat, and anti-immigrant attitudes in Western Europe - Ibrahim Enes Atac, Charles Seguin, Brandon Gorman, 2025
Group threat theories explain anti-immigrant attitudes as emerging from threats to the perceived or actual power of one’s ethnic group. Studies also show that i...
journals.sagepub.com
November 14, 2025 at 9:58 PM
🚨 New publication: “The Wages of Ethnic Power: Socioeconomic Status, Group Threat, and Anti-Immigrant Attitudes in Western Europe” 🚨
Just published in the International Journal of Comparative Sociology with Charles Seguin and Brandon Gorman.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Just published in the International Journal of Comparative Sociology with Charles Seguin and Brandon Gorman.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
The Italian right-wing coalition has two clear advantages over their opponents.
They agree on who constitutes the bulk of their electorate -- to whom they need to throw some bones. And they have found a simple system to select their PMs, which everybody within it has shown they will respect.
They agree on who constitutes the bulk of their electorate -- to whom they need to throw some bones. And they have found a simple system to select their PMs, which everybody within it has shown they will respect.
November 16, 2025 at 9:46 AM
The Italian right-wing coalition has two clear advantages over their opponents.
They agree on who constitutes the bulk of their electorate -- to whom they need to throw some bones. And they have found a simple system to select their PMs, which everybody within it has shown they will respect.
They agree on who constitutes the bulk of their electorate -- to whom they need to throw some bones. And they have found a simple system to select their PMs, which everybody within it has shown they will respect.
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?
October 21, 2025 at 10:47 AM
To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
Excited to share a glimpse of my book on party families via LSE European Politics and Policy! The book delves into the heart of what constitutes a party family, offer updated categorisations, contemporary descriptions, and an insight into their supporters. #polisky
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...
Why we should rethink how we categorise party families in western Europe
It is common to refer to party families such as “social democrats” and the “radical right” when discussing European politics. Drawing on a new book, Peter Egge Langsæther writes that while th...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
January 3, 2024 at 10:53 AM
Excited to share a glimpse of my book on party families via LSE European Politics and Policy! The book delves into the heart of what constitutes a party family, offer updated categorisations, contemporary descriptions, and an insight into their supporters. #polisky
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
La identificación partidista es un concepto que se inventó en los años cincuenta del siglo pasado. Su modo de funcionar tiene problemas, pero su ausencia tiene más problemas. Y, sin ese tipo de mecanismos de identificación grupal, que ahorran costes de información, la democracia no sería posible.
"Los políticos actuales y sus fans son capaces de defender que un mismo hecho es bueno o malo en función de si lo hago yo o lo hace mi enemigo. No tienen un solo sistema ético, sino dos: uno para los propios, otro para los adversarios".
La #opinión de Ramón González Férriz dozz.es/esagc2
La #opinión de Ramón González Férriz dozz.es/esagc2
Si no entiendes cómo piensa la gente partidista, no entiendes la política
Los políticos actuales y sus fans son capaces de defender que un mismo hecho es bueno o malo en función de si lo hago yo o lo hace mi enemigo. No tienen un solo sistema ético, sino dos: uno para los propios, otro para los adversarios
dozz.es
October 13, 2025 at 3:56 PM
La identificación partidista es un concepto que se inventó en los años cincuenta del siglo pasado. Su modo de funcionar tiene problemas, pero su ausencia tiene más problemas. Y, sin ese tipo de mecanismos de identificación grupal, que ahorran costes de información, la democracia no sería posible.
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
New blog post!
Let's say you have two measures meant to capture the same confounder. They're highly correlated. Can you still proceed with your regression analysis?
(I admit, the title is a bit of a spoiler)
www.the100.ci/2025/10/13/i...
Let's say you have two measures meant to capture the same confounder. They're highly correlated. Can you still proceed with your regression analysis?
(I admit, the title is a bit of a spoiler)
www.the100.ci/2025/10/13/i...
If you have two measures of the same confounder, you can just include both of them in your regression model
Sometimes, researchers worry about multicollinearity in situations where it’s actually a non-issue. Here’s one such scenario.
Imagine a situation where you are interested in the effect of X on Y (X...
www.the100.ci
October 13, 2025 at 1:14 PM
New blog post!
Let's say you have two measures meant to capture the same confounder. They're highly correlated. Can you still proceed with your regression analysis?
(I admit, the title is a bit of a spoiler)
www.the100.ci/2025/10/13/i...
Let's say you have two measures meant to capture the same confounder. They're highly correlated. Can you still proceed with your regression analysis?
(I admit, the title is a bit of a spoiler)
www.the100.ci/2025/10/13/i...
Really good and really really interesting.
To a large extent, it goes against my expectations, and yet it does cover it's bases well enough that I may have to accept that maybe norms are a bigger part of the far right story than what I initially thought.
To a large extent, it goes against my expectations, and yet it does cover it's bases well enough that I may have to accept that maybe norms are a bigger part of the far right story than what I initially thought.
Radical-right parties are often linked to the “left-behind”. But supporting them when stigma is strong is costly. So who is willing to pay that cost early on, before it’s normalized?
In my new WP, I argue that breaking political norms is socially stratified. 🧵👇
In my new WP, I argue that breaking political norms is socially stratified. 🧵👇
September 8, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Really good and really really interesting.
To a large extent, it goes against my expectations, and yet it does cover it's bases well enough that I may have to accept that maybe norms are a bigger part of the far right story than what I initially thought.
To a large extent, it goes against my expectations, and yet it does cover it's bases well enough that I may have to accept that maybe norms are a bigger part of the far right story than what I initially thought.
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
September 5, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
Ada: Somehow I always hurt only my most sensitive body parts!
Me: Okay kid, it’s time we have The Talk—
Me: Okay kid, it’s time we have The Talk—
August 31, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Ada: Somehow I always hurt only my most sensitive body parts!
Me: Okay kid, it’s time we have The Talk—
Me: Okay kid, it’s time we have The Talk—
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
I’m very excited to share that my paper “Cleavage theory meets civil society: A framework and research agenda” with @eborbath.bsky.social & Swen Hutter has now been published online in @wepsocial.bsky.social (w/ open access funding thanks to @wzb.bsky.social!)
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
August 28, 2025 at 1:25 PM
I’m very excited to share that my paper “Cleavage theory meets civil society: A framework and research agenda” with @eborbath.bsky.social & Swen Hutter has now been published online in @wepsocial.bsky.social (w/ open access funding thanks to @wzb.bsky.social!)
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
I do not remember who I read saying that humans only understand three probabilities: 0%, 50% and 100%.
This statement (I don't know how well founded) is consistent with the anecdotal evidence I have encountered ever since.
I believe it also applies to fractions and continous distributions.
🧵1/2
This statement (I don't know how well founded) is consistent with the anecdotal evidence I have encountered ever since.
I believe it also applies to fractions and continous distributions.
🧵1/2
In general “bimodal but not binary” is something that seems to break brains a lot. Like a specific type of personality really dislikes the idea that something is neither a neat continuous distribution nor a on/off. It’s a type of complexity that just drives some people nuts, not just on gender stuff
Biological sex is a spectrum too, not just gender. That’s not postmodern nonsense, it’s reality as revealed by science. Sex is a cluster of phenotypical characteristics that tend to, but do not always, correlate. The spectrum follows a bimodal distribution, but that’s not the same thing as a binary!
August 26, 2025 at 11:29 AM
I do not remember who I read saying that humans only understand three probabilities: 0%, 50% and 100%.
This statement (I don't know how well founded) is consistent with the anecdotal evidence I have encountered ever since.
I believe it also applies to fractions and continous distributions.
🧵1/2
This statement (I don't know how well founded) is consistent with the anecdotal evidence I have encountered ever since.
I believe it also applies to fractions and continous distributions.
🧵1/2
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
It's quite funny that fairly early in its history philosophy invented writing well (Plato) and reasoning well (Aristotle) and made it clear you can only do one; subsequently clarifying that we'll typically do neither.
August 21, 2025 at 5:27 AM
It's quite funny that fairly early in its history philosophy invented writing well (Plato) and reasoning well (Aristotle) and made it clear you can only do one; subsequently clarifying that we'll typically do neither.
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
"Overall, our findings suggest a “ratchet-effect” heuristic: left parties may still push back against rising disparities but have given up on lowering existing levels of inequality. To us, the findings imply lock-in effects [...]"
Why Inequalities Persist: Parties’ (Non)Responses to Economic Inequality, 1970–2020
new paper in APSR. How do parties react to inqeuality levels and changes to these levels?
new paper in APSR. How do parties react to inqeuality levels and changes to these levels?
August 16, 2025 at 12:59 PM
"Overall, our findings suggest a “ratchet-effect” heuristic: left parties may still push back against rising disparities but have given up on lowering existing levels of inequality. To us, the findings imply lock-in effects [...]"
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
Federal court refuses to block Alabama’s “divisive concepts” law, says university faculty classroom speech is government speech with no First Amendment protection. This dangerous development allows lawmakers to dictate what professors say in class. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
storage.courtlistener.com
August 14, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Federal court refuses to block Alabama’s “divisive concepts” law, says university faculty classroom speech is government speech with no First Amendment protection. This dangerous development allows lawmakers to dictate what professors say in class. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
The @epssnet.bsky.social call for the 2026 conference in Belfast opened today! 😮
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Deadline: 7 November 2025
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Deadline: 7 November 2025
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
July 31, 2025 at 12:24 PM
The @epssnet.bsky.social call for the 2026 conference in Belfast opened today! 😮
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Deadline: 7 November 2025
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Deadline: 7 November 2025
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
The old party is dying. The new party struggles to be born. Now is the time of Schumers.
July 29, 2025 at 1:19 PM
The old party is dying. The new party struggles to be born. Now is the time of Schumers.
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
Even in times of sociocultural conflict, a progressive left electorate is more averse to sociocultural *and* socioeconomic inequalities than (far) right voters.
New paper with @siljahausermann.bsky.social Palmtag @tabouchadi.bsky.social @stefwalter.bsky.social Berkinshaw
tinyurl.com/d42wyb79
1/n
New paper with @siljahausermann.bsky.social Palmtag @tabouchadi.bsky.social @stefwalter.bsky.social Berkinshaw
tinyurl.com/d42wyb79
1/n
July 29, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Even in times of sociocultural conflict, a progressive left electorate is more averse to sociocultural *and* socioeconomic inequalities than (far) right voters.
New paper with @siljahausermann.bsky.social Palmtag @tabouchadi.bsky.social @stefwalter.bsky.social Berkinshaw
tinyurl.com/d42wyb79
1/n
New paper with @siljahausermann.bsky.social Palmtag @tabouchadi.bsky.social @stefwalter.bsky.social Berkinshaw
tinyurl.com/d42wyb79
1/n
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
a good diff in diff without a formal theory model delivers a casual causal estimate
July 28, 2025 at 12:31 PM
a good diff in diff without a formal theory model delivers a casual causal estimate
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
Marcel Duchamp, born July 28, 1887, loved chess as much as he loved art. My favorite thing about this photo (by Mark Kauffman for Life magazine) is that Duchamp has a modernist chess set for show, but you can see over his shoulder that he has a Staunton set for business.
July 28, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Marcel Duchamp, born July 28, 1887, loved chess as much as he loved art. My favorite thing about this photo (by Mark Kauffman for Life magazine) is that Duchamp has a modernist chess set for show, but you can see over his shoulder that he has a Staunton set for business.
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
If this is true (I don't think we fully know if the EU public feels humiliated by this deal - also partly because we just don't know much about it! - but happy to entertain):
let's then remind the public that they voted for people that wanted the European leaders to get to that.
let's then remind the public that they voted for people that wanted the European leaders to get to that.
July 28, 2025 at 11:29 AM
If this is true (I don't think we fully know if the EU public feels humiliated by this deal - also partly because we just don't know much about it! - but happy to entertain):
let's then remind the public that they voted for people that wanted the European leaders to get to that.
let's then remind the public that they voted for people that wanted the European leaders to get to that.
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
Tom Lehrer would have been intensely amused that he outlived the author of his NYT obituary.
July 28, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Tom Lehrer would have been intensely amused that he outlived the author of his NYT obituary.
This is very interesting, and intuitively (and retrospectively) quite reasonable. I mean, it people who reject democratic partisan conflict, and thus democracy, may view themselves as centrist (legend has it that Franco used to tell his cabinet "Do like me, do not get into politics").
1. Ideology matters, but not in the expected way:
Young people who place themselves at the ideological center show similar levels of democratic support as those on the right. Moreover, young men at both extremes (left and right) support democracy less than young women.
Young people who place themselves at the ideological center show similar levels of democratic support as those on the right. Moreover, young men at both extremes (left and right) support democracy less than young women.
July 27, 2025 at 9:16 AM
This is very interesting, and intuitively (and retrospectively) quite reasonable. I mean, it people who reject democratic partisan conflict, and thus democracy, may view themselves as centrist (legend has it that Franco used to tell his cabinet "Do like me, do not get into politics").
Reposted by Matteo Giuliani Pedraza
Diffuse support for democracy has usually been understood as a stable attitude, key for democracy to work. Now, @irenejbravo.bsky.social and I observe a notable shift among Spanish youth. Here, we post the main findings a recent article that can be read here: doi.org/10.3389/fpos...
Frontiers | A future of authoritarian citizens? Explaining why Spanish youth are losing faith in democracy
This article examines why Spanish young people support democracy to a lesser extent than younger generations decades ago: while youth in previous decades sho...
doi.org
July 27, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Diffuse support for democracy has usually been understood as a stable attitude, key for democracy to work. Now, @irenejbravo.bsky.social and I observe a notable shift among Spanish youth. Here, we post the main findings a recent article that can be read here: doi.org/10.3389/fpos...