Lars Peder Haga
@larspederhaga.bsky.social
Associate Professor at the Air Force Academy, Norwegian Defence University College. Used to do Soviet history before I turned to Air Power studies.
Pinned
Good interview. Especially about the first phase. It is hard to overestimate how important the Ukrainian success in denying the Russians freedom in the air was for the course of the early fight:
“If their aircraft had come here and worked freely, everything would have been completely different.”
“If their aircraft had come here and worked freely, everything would have been completely different.”
Great thread. The Swiss are figuring out what we did 80 years ago:
- Protection by geography can be made irrelevant by technological change
- It is too late to plan for assistance when you are under attack
(- Pretending to be non-aligned/neutral is probably the worst of all solutions)
- Protection by geography can be made irrelevant by technological change
- It is too late to plan for assistance when you are under attack
(- Pretending to be non-aligned/neutral is probably the worst of all solutions)
I read the new security strategy that Switzerland published a few days ago.
It’s really quite good in my view!
A 🧵
The whole strategy is available in English here
www.news.admin.ch/en/newnsb/BL...
It’s really quite good in my view!
A 🧵
The whole strategy is available in English here
www.news.admin.ch/en/newnsb/BL...
December 17, 2025 at 6:03 AM
Great thread. The Swiss are figuring out what we did 80 years ago:
- Protection by geography can be made irrelevant by technological change
- It is too late to plan for assistance when you are under attack
(- Pretending to be non-aligned/neutral is probably the worst of all solutions)
- Protection by geography can be made irrelevant by technological change
- It is too late to plan for assistance when you are under attack
(- Pretending to be non-aligned/neutral is probably the worst of all solutions)
Vi har en ledig PhD stipendiat-stilling ved Luftkrigsskolen - søknadsfrist 10. januar: arbeidsplassen.nav.no/stillinger/s...
Vil du forske på russisk krigføring i Ukraina? - arbeidsplassen.no
Doktorgradsstipendiat - russisk krigføring i Ukraina, Luftkrigsskolen, Forsvarets høgskole, Trondheim. Søknadsfrist: Søk senest lørdag 10. januar.
arbeidsplassen.nav.no
December 1, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Vi har en ledig PhD stipendiat-stilling ved Luftkrigsskolen - søknadsfrist 10. januar: arbeidsplassen.nav.no/stillinger/s...
Helpful
Hoping this helps our colleagues across the industry
November 5, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Helpful
Good thread on Poseidon's lineage.
Poseidon belongs to a long Soviet lineage of experimenting with high-yield undersea delivery systems. These projects explored how ocean depth, pressure, and shock-wave propagation could be harnessed to shape or amplify nuclear effects. 🧵
October 30, 2025 at 7:03 AM
Good thread on Poseidon's lineage.
Gerasimov claims a successfull flight of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile after more than two months of tests.
www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/no-...
www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/no-...
October 26, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Gerasimov claims a successfull flight of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile after more than two months of tests.
www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/no-...
www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/no-...
This is also a feature of SAAB/Gripen that has made it a good match for Ukraine: Swedish flexibility and ingenuity around financing models. And of course risk acceptance.
🇸🇪🇺🇦 Swedish DefMin describe four ways of possible #Gripen financing.
#Ukraine's budget. The Swedish Export Credit system (used by Brazil). Frozen russian funds. Swedish aid.
#Sweden allocate 40 B SEK ($4.3 B) in 2026 for #aid to Ukraine.
1/2
Pic: SVT www.svt.se/nyheter/utri...
#Ukraine's budget. The Swedish Export Credit system (used by Brazil). Frozen russian funds. Swedish aid.
#Sweden allocate 40 B SEK ($4.3 B) in 2026 for #aid to Ukraine.
1/2
Pic: SVT www.svt.se/nyheter/utri...
October 23, 2025 at 8:22 AM
This is also a feature of SAAB/Gripen that has made it a good match for Ukraine: Swedish flexibility and ingenuity around financing models. And of course risk acceptance.
1/9 A few comments on today's announcement of Ukraine's intent to buy 100-150 SAAB Gripen-E multi-role combat jets.
October 22, 2025 at 9:22 PM
1/9 A few comments on today's announcement of Ukraine's intent to buy 100-150 SAAB Gripen-E multi-role combat jets.
I guess this should be called a counter-counterdrone drone strike.
The Security Service of Ukraine destroyed two Russian light aircraft that were intercepting Ukrainian long-range drones.
The aircraft, placed at air bases on the temporarily occupied territories of #Ukraine, were destroyed by the special forces from the Special Operations Center "A".
Glory!
The aircraft, placed at air bases on the temporarily occupied territories of #Ukraine, were destroyed by the special forces from the Special Operations Center "A".
Glory!
October 21, 2025 at 5:24 PM
I guess this should be called a counter-counterdrone drone strike.
In the best Soviet tradition.
[Russian torture] “They don’t do it for information. They do it for control...Their aim isn’t to learn anything true; it’s to manufacture truth, to sculpt it into whatever story they need to justify their crimes.”
londonlovesbusiness.com/the-man-russ...
londonlovesbusiness.com/the-man-russ...
The man Russia tried to break: Part two 'into the fire' - London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
When you’re captured and taken prisoner, you are no longer in control. It’s not like the films. There’s no dramatic music, no brave Arnie ...
londonlovesbusiness.com
October 18, 2025 at 3:56 PM
In the best Soviet tradition.
Reposted by Lars Peder Haga
Two Sentinel 2 passes over Rogachevo Air Base in Novaya Zemlya today - one of which got a lucky break in the clouds.
The aircraft involved Burevestnik test monitoring still appear to be there, so combined with the ongoing NOTAMs & continued presence of vessels, I don't think they're finished yet.
The aircraft involved Burevestnik test monitoring still appear to be there, so combined with the ongoing NOTAMs & continued presence of vessels, I don't think they're finished yet.
October 17, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Two Sentinel 2 passes over Rogachevo Air Base in Novaya Zemlya today - one of which got a lucky break in the clouds.
The aircraft involved Burevestnik test monitoring still appear to be there, so combined with the ongoing NOTAMs & continued presence of vessels, I don't think they're finished yet.
The aircraft involved Burevestnik test monitoring still appear to be there, so combined with the ongoing NOTAMs & continued presence of vessels, I don't think they're finished yet.
This is an intelligent approach. Fear and confusion are way too often mentioned as the desired effects of "grey-zone" or "hybrid" actions. They can however only be means to reach desired outcomes, by distracting us from what is at stake or coercing us from taking action.
The best response to Russia’s incursions may be to focus not on the grey-zone tactics themselves, but on the outcomes that China and Russia are trying to avoid by deploying them
Why Russia’s micro-aggressions against Europe are proliferating
It is hoping to sap support for Ukraine and highlight America’s ambivalence
econ.st
October 7, 2025 at 1:22 PM
This is an intelligent approach. Fear and confusion are way too often mentioned as the desired effects of "grey-zone" or "hybrid" actions. They can however only be means to reach desired outcomes, by distracting us from what is at stake or coercing us from taking action.
Important thread on the state of Russian civil aviation after sanctions and under heavy GPS (self-)jamming. TL/DR: It is extremely unsafe.
1/ Sanctions and GPS jamming have had a hugely disruptive effect on Russian civil aviation, according to airline pilots. They have had to fly with suitcases full of old paper charts, turn off critical safety systems, and fly defective aircraft with dubious Chinese components.⬇️
October 2, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Important thread on the state of Russian civil aviation after sanctions and under heavy GPS (self-)jamming. TL/DR: It is extremely unsafe.
Reposted by Lars Peder Haga
Since it's in the wind with the footage of the Ropucha-class LST Aleksandr Shabalin:
Only a handful of Russian warships tend to transmit on AIS and these few only do so very occasionally.
Most never transmit and have never done so. Ropucha's are in this group.
Only a handful of Russian warships tend to transmit on AIS and these few only do so very occasionally.
Most never transmit and have never done so. Ropucha's are in this group.
September 26, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Since it's in the wind with the footage of the Ropucha-class LST Aleksandr Shabalin:
Only a handful of Russian warships tend to transmit on AIS and these few only do so very occasionally.
Most never transmit and have never done so. Ropucha's are in this group.
Only a handful of Russian warships tend to transmit on AIS and these few only do so very occasionally.
Most never transmit and have never done so. Ropucha's are in this group.
Reposted by Lars Peder Haga
This morning, there has been significant air activity visible off the east and west coasts of Novaya Zemlya over a number of hours with Sentinel 3.
Contrails from orbiting/maneuvering aircraft are clearly visible.
I cannot say a Burevestnik test is occurring, but this is what I'd expect to see.
Contrails from orbiting/maneuvering aircraft are clearly visible.
I cannot say a Burevestnik test is occurring, but this is what I'd expect to see.
September 20, 2025 at 11:42 AM
This morning, there has been significant air activity visible off the east and west coasts of Novaya Zemlya over a number of hours with Sentinel 3.
Contrails from orbiting/maneuvering aircraft are clearly visible.
I cannot say a Burevestnik test is occurring, but this is what I'd expect to see.
Contrails from orbiting/maneuvering aircraft are clearly visible.
I cannot say a Burevestnik test is occurring, but this is what I'd expect to see.
1/7 The Mig-31BM Foxhound in the picture published by @forsvarsmakten.se on the other place has tail nr Blue 67. According to my records, blue 67 has been used by two different Russian units:
September 20, 2025 at 11:27 AM
1/7 The Mig-31BM Foxhound in the picture published by @forsvarsmakten.se on the other place has tail nr Blue 67. According to my records, blue 67 has been used by two different Russian units:
Possibly related to continuing Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile trials?
🇺🇸 WC-135R (☢️-sniffer) on return towards 🇳🇴 airspace after Barents Sea mission looking for 🇷🇺 stuff.
September 2, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Possibly related to continuing Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile trials?
Article on likely imminent test of Russia's Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, with a little contribution from me.
Unusual aircraft activity at Novaya Zemlya linked to Burevestnik testing. Meanwhile, Putin met with the weapon's designers and military bosses in Rosatom's closed town of Sarov and discussed the system's readiness for adoption into service.
Unusual aircraft activity at Novaya Zemlya linked to Burevestnik testing
It's been a busy week at the Rogachevo air base as Russia's testing of the nuclear-powered cruise missile Burevestnik goes on. On Friday, Vladimir Putin allegedly met with the designers of the terrify...
www.thebarentsobserver.com
August 24, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Article on likely imminent test of Russia's Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, with a little contribution from me.
August 17, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Must read on AI-generated satellite imagery, how to spot it and what to do.
The latest satellite images show 3 major developments: a large Russian troop buildup in Bryansk Oblast, damage from recent drone strikes in Kyiv, and unusual military activities at Taiwan’s Wangan Airport.
All three have one thing in common - they were generated by AI. 🧵Thread:
All three have one thing in common - they were generated by AI. 🧵Thread:
June 6, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Must read on AI-generated satellite imagery, how to spot it and what to do.
1/3 SBU released footage from the attack on Ivanovo. As noted by others before me, the attacked airframes lack engines and frankly look like sh*t.
June 5, 2025 at 11:43 AM
1/3 SBU released footage from the attack on Ivanovo. As noted by others before me, the attacked airframes lack engines and frankly look like sh*t.
This picture is making rounds now. It is obviously an AI-generated fake or for "illustrative purposes". My understanding is it originated in Ukrainian media. Using Gen AI like this destroys credibility and is really unhelpful.
June 5, 2025 at 7:07 AM
This picture is making rounds now. It is obviously an AI-generated fake or for "illustrative purposes". My understanding is it originated in Ukrainian media. Using Gen AI like this destroys credibility and is really unhelpful.
1/5 Good points. The truck that launched the one-way-attack small UAS towards Olenya stood a little to the North of this gas station:
June 1, 2025 at 9:33 PM
1/5 Good points. The truck that launched the one-way-attack small UAS towards Olenya stood a little to the North of this gas station:
Reposted by Lars Peder Haga
Your key takeaway from the brilliant Ukraine attack with small drones into Russia shouldn’t be “wow, small drones make it so easy to score huge hits,” it should be “wow, Ukrainians are insanely good at covertly planning and executing extraordinarily difficult missions of which drones are one part”.
1. The FPV drone tech Ukraine used here has been around for a while, though it was used very ingeniously.
2. The Ukrainian attack using these drones relied upon what sounds like over a year of extraordinarily precise logistics, planning, and training. This is not something just anyone could do.
2. The Ukrainian attack using these drones relied upon what sounds like over a year of extraordinarily precise logistics, planning, and training. This is not something just anyone could do.
i need a smart person who isn't a pod caster to explain the long term implications of FPV drones that cost a couple hundred dollars being used to torch three hundred million dollar bombers. again please no pod casters are invited to comment
June 1, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Your key takeaway from the brilliant Ukraine attack with small drones into Russia shouldn’t be “wow, small drones make it so easy to score huge hits,” it should be “wow, Ukrainians are insanely good at covertly planning and executing extraordinarily difficult missions of which drones are one part”.
Reposted by Lars Peder Haga
This is a very good overview of the bases hit and their current role in Russian long-range aviation. It is particularly useful as the war has seen rather drastic changes in basing of different units, so if your standard-sources for this are from pre-2022, they are outdated. bsky.app/profile/lars...
1/10 On the map, clockwise from top (as we see it): Olenya, Murmansk oblast, Ivanovo-Severny, Ivanovo oblast, Ukrainka, Amur oblast, Belaya, Irkutsk oblast, Dyagilevo, Ryazan oblast. All of them except Ukrainka have reportedly been attacked today by Ukrainian small one-way attack UAS. 🧵
The attack used dozens of FPV drones armed with explosives that were smuggled into Russia. Photo: SBU Chief Vasyl Malyuk looks over a map of Russian targets in today's attack.
June 1, 2025 at 5:57 PM
This is a very good overview of the bases hit and their current role in Russian long-range aviation. It is particularly useful as the war has seen rather drastic changes in basing of different units, so if your standard-sources for this are from pre-2022, they are outdated. bsky.app/profile/lars...
Reposted by Lars Peder Haga
I honestly struggle to come up with a historical comparison. Destroying strategic assets that difficult to impossible to replace has been done, daring special forces raids have been done, and striking airbases to great effect has been done, all of which are hard to do, but to combine all three?
June 1, 2025 at 12:04 PM
I honestly struggle to come up with a historical comparison. Destroying strategic assets that difficult to impossible to replace has been done, daring special forces raids have been done, and striking airbases to great effect has been done, all of which are hard to do, but to combine all three?