David Dunning
@daviddunning6.bsky.social
Studying the psychology underlying human misbelief.
Mary Ann and Charles R. Walgreen, Jr., Professor of the Study of Human Understanding, University of Michigan.
(PS. Neither Justin nor I named it that. Best career move we never made.)
he/him/his
Mary Ann and Charles R. Walgreen, Jr., Professor of the Study of Human Understanding, University of Michigan.
(PS. Neither Justin nor I named it that. Best career move we never made.)
he/him/his
Tell tale.
November 20, 2025 at 3:36 AM
Tell tale.
Last month I was honored, w/ 200 peers, to be inducted into the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. A surprise. Further, I was invited to give the featured talk at the closing session, followed by a conversation w/ Dr. Laurie Patton, the Academy’s president. 1/3
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aLI...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aLI...
David Dunning Presentation and Conversation - 2025 Induction Weekend
YouTube video by American Academy of Arts & Sciences
www.youtube.com
November 19, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Last month I was honored, w/ 200 peers, to be inducted into the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. A surprise. Further, I was invited to give the featured talk at the closing session, followed by a conversation w/ Dr. Laurie Patton, the Academy’s president. 1/3
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aLI...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aLI...
Do as I say, not as I ...
Oh, never mind. It's all about my presentation. Don't pay attention to my doing. I'm not.
Oh, never mind. It's all about my presentation. Don't pay attention to my doing. I'm not.
Oh my.
James Talarico is incredibly skilled in dismantling Christian Nationalists.
Get this man in the Senate.
James Talarico is incredibly skilled in dismantling Christian Nationalists.
Get this man in the Senate.
November 19, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Do as I say, not as I ...
Oh, never mind. It's all about my presentation. Don't pay attention to my doing. I'm not.
Oh, never mind. It's all about my presentation. Don't pay attention to my doing. I'm not.
It's true. And if I show a clip from Monty Python to students, they...they just don't laugh.
babylonbee.com/news/troubli...
babylonbee.com/news/troubli...
Troubling New Survey Shows 90 Percent Of Graduating High School Seniors Don't Know The Airspeed Velocity Of An Unladen Swallow
PALO ALTO, CA — A startling new study out of Stanford University shows almost all graduating high school seniors in the U.S. are unable to recall the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow.
babylonbee.com
November 19, 2025 at 4:51 PM
It's true. And if I show a clip from Monty Python to students, they...they just don't laugh.
babylonbee.com/news/troubli...
babylonbee.com/news/troubli...
A person ceases to be a beginner in any given science and becomes a master in that science when they have learned that they are going to be a beginner all their life.
Robin G. Collingwood, 1889-1943, English Philosopher and Archeologist
Robin G. Collingwood, 1889-1943, English Philosopher and Archeologist
I spoke with @BigThink about why even the most experienced professionals need a coach — including surgeons. It’s one of the most under-utilized ways people improve.
Video: youtu.be/tW7ClAexgHI?...
Video: youtu.be/tW7ClAexgHI?...
How to break the hidden limits of expertise | Atul Gawande for Big Think+
YouTube video by Big Think
youtu.be
November 19, 2025 at 2:30 PM
A person ceases to be a beginner in any given science and becomes a master in that science when they have learned that they are going to be a beginner all their life.
Robin G. Collingwood, 1889-1943, English Philosopher and Archeologist
Robin G. Collingwood, 1889-1943, English Philosopher and Archeologist
RIP
March 1, 1793-November 12, 2025
March 1, 1793-November 12, 2025
November 13, 2025 at 3:51 AM
RIP
March 1, 1793-November 12, 2025
March 1, 1793-November 12, 2025
We were 4th row, terrific spot for seeing excellent guitar work by the man and Jon Herington. Much blues; five tunes off Silk Degrees.
(Shout out to anyone who can guess the 5.)
(Shout out to anyone who can guess the 5.)
Boz Scaggs - Loan Me a Dime (audio) - Live at Hill Auditorium 11/7/25
Saw Bozz Scaggs last night! Captured some audio clips with ye olde iPhone. He's vocally still very strong, and the band was great. No beer served at Hill, tho. What!?
#BozScaggs #MusicSky #ConcertSky
youtu.be/QM5Qr49aKvU?...
Saw Bozz Scaggs last night! Captured some audio clips with ye olde iPhone. He's vocally still very strong, and the band was great. No beer served at Hill, tho. What!?
#BozScaggs #MusicSky #ConcertSky
youtu.be/QM5Qr49aKvU?...
Boz Scaggs - Loan Me a Dime (audio) - Live at Hill Auditorium 11/7/25
YouTube video by MVP Presents
youtu.be
November 8, 2025 at 9:43 PM
We were 4th row, terrific spot for seeing excellent guitar work by the man and Jon Herington. Much blues; five tunes off Silk Degrees.
(Shout out to anyone who can guess the 5.)
(Shout out to anyone who can guess the 5.)
Bernard Shaw to Michael Dukakis:
"Governor, if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered, would you favor an irrevocable death penalty for the killer?"
"Governor, if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered, would you favor an irrevocable death penalty for the killer?"
Q: A federal judge ruled that the administration has to fully fund SNAP. DOJ said they're gonna appeal. What's your message to folks as we're headed to Thanksgiving?
TRUMP: *looks at JD Vance* you wanna gowithater
TRUMP: *looks at JD Vance* you wanna gowithater
November 7, 2025 at 2:46 AM
Bernard Shaw to Michael Dukakis:
"Governor, if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered, would you favor an irrevocable death penalty for the killer?"
"Governor, if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered, would you favor an irrevocable death penalty for the killer?"
Regrettably, what popped into mind was...
Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day
You fritter and waste the hours in an off-hand way
Kicking around on a piece of ground in your home town
Waiting for someone or something to show you the way
Mood.
Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day
You fritter and waste the hours in an off-hand way
Kicking around on a piece of ground in your home town
Waiting for someone or something to show you the way
Mood.
November 2, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Regrettably, what popped into mind was...
Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day
You fritter and waste the hours in an off-hand way
Kicking around on a piece of ground in your home town
Waiting for someone or something to show you the way
Mood.
Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day
You fritter and waste the hours in an off-hand way
Kicking around on a piece of ground in your home town
Waiting for someone or something to show you the way
Mood.
Reposted by David Dunning
Another fun assortment of Weekend Reads:
Costco, Hamptons RRE, Long-Term Asset Return Study, The Beatles as Comedians, theories of consciousness, Mortality as the mother of art, and Billie Eilish!
ritholtz.com/2025/11/10-w...
Costco, Hamptons RRE, Long-Term Asset Return Study, The Beatles as Comedians, theories of consciousness, Mortality as the mother of art, and Billie Eilish!
ritholtz.com/2025/11/10-w...
10 Weekend Reads - The Big Picture
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Can the Golden Age of Costco Last? With its standout deals and ...
ritholtz.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Another fun assortment of Weekend Reads:
Costco, Hamptons RRE, Long-Term Asset Return Study, The Beatles as Comedians, theories of consciousness, Mortality as the mother of art, and Billie Eilish!
ritholtz.com/2025/11/10-w...
Costco, Hamptons RRE, Long-Term Asset Return Study, The Beatles as Comedians, theories of consciousness, Mortality as the mother of art, and Billie Eilish!
ritholtz.com/2025/11/10-w...
Listen to what the man said.
Jet!
Maybe I'm amazed that uncle Kash is using government wings to show the world the girl is mine. Say say say what you want, but it's just another day for the Trump administration, no matter what the man says.
by Maureen Dowd
Maybe I'm amazed that uncle Kash is using government wings to show the world the girl is mine. Say say say what you want, but it's just another day for the Trump administration, no matter what the man says.
by Maureen Dowd
October 31, 2025 at 2:32 AM
Listen to what the man said.
Makes my cardiologist very, very happy.
⚽🏴🩺
⚽🏴🩺
6 games played by Arsenal football club in October.
12 goals scored
0 goals conceded
0 games lost
❤️🤍❤️🤍
12 goals scored
0 goals conceded
0 games lost
❤️🤍❤️🤍
October 29, 2025 at 10:21 PM
Makes my cardiologist very, very happy.
⚽🏴🩺
⚽🏴🩺
Reposted by David Dunning
Also, just how many world faith leaders are Americans now? We've got the Pope, the Patriarch of the Assyrian Church of the East, and the Antichrist by my count.
Mar Awa III, patriarch of the Assyrian Church of the East, also born in Chicago, gave Pope Leo a Cubs jersey.
October 28, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Also, just how many world faith leaders are Americans now? We've got the Pope, the Patriarch of the Assyrian Church of the East, and the Antichrist by my count.
The Trump Admin cuts off SNAP and WIC on Saturday, November 1st, blaming the shutdown, but...
“The USDA has the money to keep SNAP running — including $6 billion in reserve funds set aside for exactly this situation,”
The NC attorney general already plans to take the USDA to court over this.
“The USDA has the money to keep SNAP running — including $6 billion in reserve funds set aside for exactly this situation,”
The NC attorney general already plans to take the USDA to court over this.
SNAP benefits are about to lapse because of the shutdown. Reminders:
1. About 1 in 2 children will receive SNAP benefits at some point and 1 in 4 children are receiving benefits in a given month.
2. Trump is already planning to cut SNAP in other ways.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-big-be...
1. About 1 in 2 children will receive SNAP benefits at some point and 1 in 4 children are receiving benefits in a given month.
2. Trump is already planning to cut SNAP in other ways.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-big-be...
The Big Beautiful Bill has a SNAP Poison Pill
How states will get the blame for massive cuts to food stamps
donmoynihan.substack.com
October 26, 2025 at 10:46 PM
The Trump Admin cuts off SNAP and WIC on Saturday, November 1st, blaming the shutdown, but...
“The USDA has the money to keep SNAP running — including $6 billion in reserve funds set aside for exactly this situation,”
The NC attorney general already plans to take the USDA to court over this.
“The USDA has the money to keep SNAP running — including $6 billion in reserve funds set aside for exactly this situation,”
The NC attorney general already plans to take the USDA to court over this.
Reposted by David Dunning
I wrote a short essay about a disagreement I recently had with a friend.
thefulcrum.us/civic-engage...
thefulcrum.us/civic-engage...
Setting Down the Microphone While Your Opponent Speaks
It’s often hard to know what people disagree about when they disagree about Charlie Kirk.I live and work in Arizona, but before the assassination, I knew of Kirk only vaguely. After the shooting, a co...
thefulcrum.us
October 26, 2025 at 1:39 PM
I wrote a short essay about a disagreement I recently had with a friend.
thefulcrum.us/civic-engage...
thefulcrum.us/civic-engage...
Reposted by David Dunning
If you’re in Ann Arbor on Oct 24th, come out to the library for the first Evolution in the Public Eye award address featuring Ed Hagen. Refreshments provided!
Very excited to announce the inaugural Evolution in the Public Eye Award Ceremony and Lecture. Our first winner, Ed Hagen, will be speaking about "The Evolution of 'Recreational' Drug Use" on Oct. 24 @ 5:30pm at the Ann Arbor District Library. More info: sites.lsa.umich.edu/ehap/evoluti...
October 17, 2025 at 4:56 PM
If you’re in Ann Arbor on Oct 24th, come out to the library for the first Evolution in the Public Eye award address featuring Ed Hagen. Refreshments provided!
Definitely bigger than June judging from that picture (& thus > 1400). I also resonate with the reply (below). If you had told me as a kid that the Dem Party had organized something in town, my response would have been "What Dem party?"
October 18, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Definitely bigger than June judging from that picture (& thus > 1400). I also resonate with the reply (below). If you had told me as a kid that the Dem Party had organized something in town, my response would have been "What Dem party?"
Energized crowd.
4 frogs, 2 dinosaurs, Kenny, shark, princess hippo, 6 chickens, inflatable tube man, 2 puppies, lobster, Stay Puft Marshmallow Man, and King Arthur.
Last one is the only king allowed.
4 frogs, 2 dinosaurs, Kenny, shark, princess hippo, 6 chickens, inflatable tube man, 2 puppies, lobster, Stay Puft Marshmallow Man, and King Arthur.
Last one is the only king allowed.
October 18, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Energized crowd.
4 frogs, 2 dinosaurs, Kenny, shark, princess hippo, 6 chickens, inflatable tube man, 2 puppies, lobster, Stay Puft Marshmallow Man, and King Arthur.
Last one is the only king allowed.
4 frogs, 2 dinosaurs, Kenny, shark, princess hippo, 6 chickens, inflatable tube man, 2 puppies, lobster, Stay Puft Marshmallow Man, and King Arthur.
Last one is the only king allowed.
Gartner Hype Curve (Phase I)
(but, really, "nobody knows anything," William Goldman, 1983)
(but, really, "nobody knows anything," William Goldman, 1983)
There are basically only two positions in the debate about AI.
1. I’ve barely invested any time in learning how to use it effectively. AI sucks.
2. I’ve invested in learning how to use this tool. Holy cow, it’s transformational.
Position #1 has lower barriers to entry.
1. I’ve barely invested any time in learning how to use it effectively. AI sucks.
2. I’ve invested in learning how to use this tool. Holy cow, it’s transformational.
Position #1 has lower barriers to entry.
October 17, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Gartner Hype Curve (Phase I)
(but, really, "nobody knows anything," William Goldman, 1983)
(but, really, "nobody knows anything," William Goldman, 1983)
Odd, I seem to recall from history that not listening to experts was more a feature of religion and totalitarianism.
Something, something, ignorance is strength, something, something.
Something, something, ignorance is strength, something, something.
RFK Jr: We need to stop trusting the experts... Trusting the experts is not a feature of science or democracy, it's a feature of religion and totalitarianism.
October 16, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Odd, I seem to recall from history that not listening to experts was more a feature of religion and totalitarianism.
Something, something, ignorance is strength, something, something.
Something, something, ignorance is strength, something, something.
Reposted by David Dunning
"Then the Lord said to Moses, 'Go in to Pharaoh and say to him, "Thus says the Lord, 'Let my people go, that they may serve me. But if you refuse to let them go, behold, I will plague all your country with frogs; the [Willamette River] shall swarm with frogs which shall come up into your house...
October 14, 2025 at 2:23 AM
"Then the Lord said to Moses, 'Go in to Pharaoh and say to him, "Thus says the Lord, 'Let my people go, that they may serve me. But if you refuse to let them go, behold, I will plague all your country with frogs; the [Willamette River] shall swarm with frogs which shall come up into your house...
Cause We've Ended as Lovers, by Jeff Beck
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC02...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC02...
October 14, 2025 at 1:01 AM
Cause We've Ended as Lovers, by Jeff Beck
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC02...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC02...
The Railway, Édouard Manet, 1873
(been going on for a very long time)
(been going on for a very long time)
October 5, 2025 at 11:10 PM
The Railway, Édouard Manet, 1873
(been going on for a very long time)
(been going on for a very long time)
Good night, and good luck.
"Bari Weiss to become CBS News EIC" has been leaked/rumored a few times but this feels more concrete: nypost.com/2025/10/02/m...
Exclusive | Bari Weiss to be named editor in chief of CBS News as part of major Paramount Skydance shakeup: sources
Weiss will report directly to Paramount Skydance Chief Executive David Ellison as she helps set the editorial direction at the third-place CBS News, a source close to the situation said.
nypost.com
October 3, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Good night, and good luck.
Reposted by David Dunning
His use of PCR sparked a movement that has freed thousands of wrongfully convicted people. Dr. Blake’s testing alone helped to exonerate more than 50, including several sentenced to death. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/s...
Edward T. Blake, 80, Dies; Forensic Expert Sparked Innocence Movement
www.nytimes.com
October 2, 2025 at 3:28 AM
His use of PCR sparked a movement that has freed thousands of wrongfully convicted people. Dr. Blake’s testing alone helped to exonerate more than 50, including several sentenced to death. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/s...