Danny Clink
@dannyclink.bsky.social
Reposted by Danny Clink
Agree or disagree (I agree), superb to see a politician do actual policy
Rightly lots of debates about growth this weekend - rightly because it was low productivity growth that saw wages entirely flatline during the 2010s.
November 30, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Agree or disagree (I agree), superb to see a politician do actual policy
Reposted by Danny Clink
Premier League performances compared to the same corresponding fixtures last season.
What is surprising to me is that Chelsea are actually a point behind what they did last season here and haven't played better either.
Everything else matches my expectations.
What is surprising to me is that Chelsea are actually a point behind what they did last season here and haven't played better either.
Everything else matches my expectations.
November 26, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Premier League performances compared to the same corresponding fixtures last season.
What is surprising to me is that Chelsea are actually a point behind what they did last season here and haven't played better either.
Everything else matches my expectations.
What is surprising to me is that Chelsea are actually a point behind what they did last season here and haven't played better either.
Everything else matches my expectations.
Reposted by Danny Clink
From now on, when discussing the budget, please use “is this measure bigger than the cost to the exchequer of gen Z drinking less” as your metric for assessing whether something actually raises or costs a significant sum
November 26, 2025 at 12:28 PM
From now on, when discussing the budget, please use “is this measure bigger than the cost to the exchequer of gen Z drinking less” as your metric for assessing whether something actually raises or costs a significant sum
Reposted by Danny Clink
It's a useful reminder that sometimes tech can make a task more efficient for one side (applying for jobs), and more efficient for the other side (writing job adverts), and yet make the system as a whole completely inefficient.
November 14, 2025 at 10:14 AM
It's a useful reminder that sometimes tech can make a task more efficient for one side (applying for jobs), and more efficient for the other side (writing job adverts), and yet make the system as a whole completely inefficient.
Reposted by Danny Clink
Here's a chart of the marginal tax rate for someone with two kids. They pay 53% tax on every £ they earn between £60k and £80k. 62% on every £ they earn between £100k and £125k.
9% more if they've a student loan
This is from our tax calculator: buff.ly/CFoExUX
9% more if they've a student loan
This is from our tax calculator: buff.ly/CFoExUX
November 13, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Here's a chart of the marginal tax rate for someone with two kids. They pay 53% tax on every £ they earn between £60k and £80k. 62% on every £ they earn between £100k and £125k.
9% more if they've a student loan
This is from our tax calculator: buff.ly/CFoExUX
9% more if they've a student loan
This is from our tax calculator: buff.ly/CFoExUX
Reposted by Danny Clink
To expand on this, I think taking away the salary sacrifice policies that high earners use to soften the 100k childcare limit without also softening the limit will have unpredictable labour market effects both directly via the high earners themselves and indirectly via their lower-earning spouses
I completely agree but it's also reminding me of the time Gordon Brown killed DB pensions by mistake because he was looking for stealth taxes so I also think it could be worse than this
November 13, 2025 at 9:08 AM
To expand on this, I think taking away the salary sacrifice policies that high earners use to soften the 100k childcare limit without also softening the limit will have unpredictable labour market effects both directly via the high earners themselves and indirectly via their lower-earning spouses
Reposted by Danny Clink
(Reuters) - Meta internally projected late last year that it would earn about 10% of its overall annual revenue – or $16 billion – from running advertising for scams and banned goods, internal company documents show.
$META @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
$META @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
November 6, 2025 at 1:20 PM
(Reuters) - Meta internally projected late last year that it would earn about 10% of its overall annual revenue – or $16 billion – from running advertising for scams and banned goods, internal company documents show.
$META @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
$META @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
Reposted by Danny Clink
What if there was a consensus on the tax reforms the UK needs?
What if it was backed by policy experts from think tanks across the political spectrum, from the Adam Smith Institute to the Resolution Foundation?
The consensus is real. The question is: will anyone act on it?
What if it was backed by policy experts from think tanks across the political spectrum, from the Adam Smith Institute to the Resolution Foundation?
The consensus is real. The question is: will anyone act on it?
November 5, 2025 at 9:51 AM
What if there was a consensus on the tax reforms the UK needs?
What if it was backed by policy experts from think tanks across the political spectrum, from the Adam Smith Institute to the Resolution Foundation?
The consensus is real. The question is: will anyone act on it?
What if it was backed by policy experts from think tanks across the political spectrum, from the Adam Smith Institute to the Resolution Foundation?
The consensus is real. The question is: will anyone act on it?
The voter retention %s across all parties (bar Reform) are wild given it’s only been 1.5 years since the 2024 GE
Little bit late to this as it was out yesterday but the latest @yougov.co.uk gov has Labour retention of 2024 voters below 40% - thanks to a bump in Don't know - and I don't recall ever seeing it that low before. Also note the Lab - Reform flow is tiny now compared to Don't know/Green/LibDem but
November 5, 2025 at 11:37 AM
The voter retention %s across all parties (bar Reform) are wild given it’s only been 1.5 years since the 2024 GE
Reposted by Danny Clink
The cool thing about this is it incentives “real” news orgs to write stories with headline keywords that might be found by people googling for more info after being primed by the insanity!
A friend told me that her American dad got in touch to talk about some news he'd seen on Facebook: there are riots in England over DEI, and the King dramatically burst into parliament to tell Starmer off, and then Prince William did the same to Sadiq Khan. AI really is inventing bold new universes
November 3, 2025 at 8:12 AM
The cool thing about this is it incentives “real” news orgs to write stories with headline keywords that might be found by people googling for more info after being primed by the insanity!
Reposted by Danny Clink
My view on the mediocre real economy ROI of the Hyperscaler CAPEX inspired a lot of conversation this week across socials, so I'm opening it up to all as my free post of the week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ai-boo...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ai-boo...
The AI Boom’s Real Economy Problem
While AI CAPEX is exploding, the payoff isn’t. Meta’s $70B/yr is only notching $3-5bln in incremental revenue. The kind of poor sector ROI exposing the diff between the dream and real economy reality.
bobeunlimited.substack.com
November 1, 2025 at 10:06 AM
My view on the mediocre real economy ROI of the Hyperscaler CAPEX inspired a lot of conversation this week across socials, so I'm opening it up to all as my free post of the week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ai-boo...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ai-boo...
Reposted by Danny Clink
It would be nice if we could break the narrative that there is a problem with young men in the UK. When so many of the problems we have had and are seeing are clearly based in attitudes and influence of older men. And women
"The data shows no evidence to suggest that younger men are more inclined than other demographic groups to support the British far right"
✍️ @turnbulldugarte.com & @emiliabelknap.bsky.social analyse the demographics of Reform voters and argue the gender gap is marginal
ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...
✍️ @turnbulldugarte.com & @emiliabelknap.bsky.social analyse the demographics of Reform voters and argue the gender gap is marginal
ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...
Most British young men reject the far right - UK in a changing Europe
Emilia Belknap and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte explain their analysis on the demographics of Reform UK voters in the UK. They argue that while the dominant narrative is that young men are the most likely ...
ukandeu.ac.uk
October 30, 2025 at 10:11 AM
It would be nice if we could break the narrative that there is a problem with young men in the UK. When so many of the problems we have had and are seeing are clearly based in attitudes and influence of older men. And women
Fascinating paper looking into the future migration numbers. The conclusion is so consequential: 1) What happens to Reform by the 2029 election when we've had many years of v low migration, 2) What happens to the economy without migration (300k fall in net migration increases the deficit by £20bn)
Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K.
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
October 29, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Fascinating paper looking into the future migration numbers. The conclusion is so consequential: 1) What happens to Reform by the 2029 election when we've had many years of v low migration, 2) What happens to the economy without migration (300k fall in net migration increases the deficit by £20bn)
This is a great study and makes the govt's focus on Reform all the more questionable. TLDR: Basically Reform are beating Labour not by taking Labour voters but by Labour losing Labour voters and Reform taking Tory voters and non-voters www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
Can Labour Take Reform UK's Voters? Why Labour's Electoral Challenges Are Being Misunderstood - Nuffield College Oxford University
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
October 27, 2025 at 10:01 AM
This is a great study and makes the govt's focus on Reform all the more questionable. TLDR: Basically Reform are beating Labour not by taking Labour voters but by Labour losing Labour voters and Reform taking Tory voters and non-voters www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
Reposted by Danny Clink
The most interesting vote of the night imho and one that foretells a potential apocalypse in the suburbs of the south-east for the Conservatives. More liberal Tories go LD, more reactionary ones go to Reform.
Camberley West (Surrey) Council By-Election Result:
🔶 LDM: 49.5% (+16.6)
➡️ RFM: 25.9% (New)
🌳 CON: 20.4% (-28.8)
🌹 LAB: 4.3% (-11.4)
No WPB (-2.3) as previous.
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Changes w/ 2021.
🔶 LDM: 49.5% (+16.6)
➡️ RFM: 25.9% (New)
🌳 CON: 20.4% (-28.8)
🌹 LAB: 4.3% (-11.4)
No WPB (-2.3) as previous.
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Changes w/ 2021.
October 17, 2025 at 8:31 AM
The most interesting vote of the night imho and one that foretells a potential apocalypse in the suburbs of the south-east for the Conservatives. More liberal Tories go LD, more reactionary ones go to Reform.
Reposted by Danny Clink
Even in this place, I feel the sheer scale of foreign aid being demolished isn't fully appreciated. As it stands, it is perhaps *the* most catastrophic change to preventable deaths in our lifetimes, and the salience - even in presumably friendly spaces - is basically zero
apnews.com/article/myan...
apnews.com/article/myan...
Starving children screaming for food as US aid cuts unleash devastation and death across Myanmar
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly said “no one has died" because of his government’s decision to gut its foreign aid program.
apnews.com
October 16, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Even in this place, I feel the sheer scale of foreign aid being demolished isn't fully appreciated. As it stands, it is perhaps *the* most catastrophic change to preventable deaths in our lifetimes, and the salience - even in presumably friendly spaces - is basically zero
apnews.com/article/myan...
apnews.com/article/myan...
Reposted by Danny Clink
at present, what is happening is that all of the capex out to 2027 is being done in 2025. the idea is that if there are first-mover profits on AI, you can buy them out of free cash flow right now and then pull back on capex if the market for AI is limited.
i genuinely do not see how exactly we are going to see all this AI/data center demand work out in the long run? like, thankfully most of investments are with cash not debt, but even then, what exactly is the case for AI investment here?
META BUILDING NEW GIGAWATT-SIZED DATA CENTER IN TEXAS
October 15, 2025 at 5:06 PM
at present, what is happening is that all of the capex out to 2027 is being done in 2025. the idea is that if there are first-mover profits on AI, you can buy them out of free cash flow right now and then pull back on capex if the market for AI is limited.
Reposted by Danny Clink
The latest Rest Is Entertainment podcast - despite its title, often the source of more intelligent examination of where we are as a society (and where we’re going) than anywhere else - has a sobering analysis of social media’s transition from “a way to connect the world” to “a way to pass the time”.
October 15, 2025 at 6:47 AM
The latest Rest Is Entertainment podcast - despite its title, often the source of more intelligent examination of where we are as a society (and where we’re going) than anywhere else - has a sobering analysis of social media’s transition from “a way to connect the world” to “a way to pass the time”.
Reposted by Danny Clink
Think we underestimate how much of social media is like going to the kitchen to fetch something, forgetting why you came and then shrugging and eating all the crackers
October 15, 2025 at 6:24 AM
Think we underestimate how much of social media is like going to the kitchen to fetch something, forgetting why you came and then shrugging and eating all the crackers
Reposted by Danny Clink
That’s a long winded way of saying they have the reasoning of a 12 year old.
October 12, 2025 at 10:07 PM
That’s a long winded way of saying they have the reasoning of a 12 year old.
Reposted by Danny Clink
I think people are still unprepared for a world where you cannot trust any video content, despite years of warning.
Even when Google & OpenAI include watermarks, those can be easily removed, and open weights AI video models without guardrails are coming. www.404media.co/sora-2-water...
Even when Google & OpenAI include watermarks, those can be easily removed, and open weights AI video models without guardrails are coming. www.404media.co/sora-2-water...
Sora 2 Watermark Removers Flood the Web
Bypassing Sora 2's rudimentary safety features is easy and experts worry it'll lead to a new era of scams and disinformation.
www.404media.co
October 8, 2025 at 7:18 PM
I think people are still unprepared for a world where you cannot trust any video content, despite years of warning.
Even when Google & OpenAI include watermarks, those can be easily removed, and open weights AI video models without guardrails are coming. www.404media.co/sora-2-water...
Even when Google & OpenAI include watermarks, those can be easily removed, and open weights AI video models without guardrails are coming. www.404media.co/sora-2-water...
Reposted by Danny Clink
These are quickly being added to my must read list each week
A story of belief, birthdays, and Viktor Gyokeres
If I speak
Don't say it. Not yet
open.substack.com
October 6, 2025 at 6:03 PM
These are quickly being added to my must read list each week
Reposted by Danny Clink
Man City
Won 6 of the last 8 PL’s.
Have the worlds best manager, most prolific striker, best DM & now best GK.
Have the 2nd most expensively assembled squad (because Chelsea 🙄).
Average fee per player is £18.5m more than Arsenal’s.
No excuses for Arsenal.
Won 6 of the last 8 PL’s.
Have the worlds best manager, most prolific striker, best DM & now best GK.
Have the 2nd most expensively assembled squad (because Chelsea 🙄).
Average fee per player is £18.5m more than Arsenal’s.
No excuses for Arsenal.
October 6, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Man City
Won 6 of the last 8 PL’s.
Have the worlds best manager, most prolific striker, best DM & now best GK.
Have the 2nd most expensively assembled squad (because Chelsea 🙄).
Average fee per player is £18.5m more than Arsenal’s.
No excuses for Arsenal.
Won 6 of the last 8 PL’s.
Have the worlds best manager, most prolific striker, best DM & now best GK.
Have the 2nd most expensively assembled squad (because Chelsea 🙄).
Average fee per player is £18.5m more than Arsenal’s.
No excuses for Arsenal.
Reposted by Danny Clink
Again, for those at the back: parties advocating the mass deportation of millions of people legally resident in the UK, as well as the abolition of human rights for all UK residents, are at a combined 50%+ in the opinion polls. The electorate of no other European democracy is as extreme as this.
James is correct.
The Tories have simply copied Reform's deportation policy for *legal* permanent residents (of the wrong colour..)
(NB the numbers would not be remotely as large as James says because most of those with ILR do get citizenship).
The Tories have simply copied Reform's deportation policy for *legal* permanent residents (of the wrong colour..)
(NB the numbers would not be remotely as large as James says because most of those with ILR do get citizenship).
The only difference is they’re proposing £38,700 as the threshold not £60,000. So basically they’re proposing to deport 2 million legal immigrants not 3 million (I haven’t checked the exact earnings breakdown so these are estimates). Still a really extremist far right position.
October 6, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Again, for those at the back: parties advocating the mass deportation of millions of people legally resident in the UK, as well as the abolition of human rights for all UK residents, are at a combined 50%+ in the opinion polls. The electorate of no other European democracy is as extreme as this.