Bob Elliott
@bobeunlimited.bsky.social
CIO @ Unlimited | Fmr Bridgewater IC | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit (or is it #finsky?) | Comments are not investment advice
Its outlook time of the year and I found @DianeSwonk's approach here refreshing. Methodically goes through each sector of the economy and what's likely to happen in '26. I agree and disagree with various parts, but there is real value in the framework.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Here comes the sun
Bring the sunscreen.
kpmg.com
December 13, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Its outlook time of the year and I found @DianeSwonk's approach here refreshing. Methodically goes through each sector of the economy and what's likely to happen in '26. I agree and disagree with various parts, but there is real value in the framework.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
End of the week in the bond market highlighted the challenges the Fed faces in actually delivering additional easing. My blog app freebie this week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
The Fed’s Easing Paradox
Long end yields are rising even with greater expectations of easing. These moves higher in the rates that matter suggest the Fed's ability to pump the economy and markets may be limited ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com
December 13, 2025 at 11:06 AM
End of the week in the bond market highlighted the challenges the Fed faces in actually delivering additional easing. My blog app freebie this week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
ECB one of several examples of developed world central banks shifting away from their easing stance, with several of those banks being priced to outright tighten by end of '26.
December 12, 2025 at 6:53 PM
ECB one of several examples of developed world central banks shifting away from their easing stance, with several of those banks being priced to outright tighten by end of '26.
The last time we saw a similar divergence between the labor market and real GDP... well you all know what happened.
December 12, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The last time we saw a similar divergence between the labor market and real GDP... well you all know what happened.
End of the Monetary Policy Sweet Spot
Global easings are slowing and hikes are creeping back in for 2026. With the disinflation dividend behind us, markets at highs supported by dovish policy face a tougher liquidity environment ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/end-of-the...
Global easings are slowing and hikes are creeping back in for 2026. With the disinflation dividend behind us, markets at highs supported by dovish policy face a tougher liquidity environment ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/end-of-the...
December 12, 2025 at 11:15 AM
End of the Monetary Policy Sweet Spot
Global easings are slowing and hikes are creeping back in for 2026. With the disinflation dividend behind us, markets at highs supported by dovish policy face a tougher liquidity environment ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/end-of-the...
Global easings are slowing and hikes are creeping back in for 2026. With the disinflation dividend behind us, markets at highs supported by dovish policy face a tougher liquidity environment ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/end-of-the...
Latest BAC credit card data suggests continued softening of spending data through November.
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
December 11, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Latest BAC credit card data suggests continued softening of spending data through November.
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
Small businesses offer another indication of downward pressures on wages ahead, with NFIB wages making new cycle lows. Remember small biz employs about 50% of US workers.
December 11, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Small businesses offer another indication of downward pressures on wages ahead, with NFIB wages making new cycle lows. Remember small biz employs about 50% of US workers.
This is Your Mind On QE
Fantasies from large scale QE are everywhere this morning when similar dynamics just months ago during the debt ceiling period shows this Fed T-bill buying will almost certainly be dead money.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/this-is-yo...
Fantasies from large scale QE are everywhere this morning when similar dynamics just months ago during the debt ceiling period shows this Fed T-bill buying will almost certainly be dead money.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/this-is-yo...
December 11, 2025 at 11:44 AM
This is Your Mind On QE
Fantasies from large scale QE are everywhere this morning when similar dynamics just months ago during the debt ceiling period shows this Fed T-bill buying will almost certainly be dead money.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/this-is-yo...
Fantasies from large scale QE are everywhere this morning when similar dynamics just months ago during the debt ceiling period shows this Fed T-bill buying will almost certainly be dead money.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/this-is-yo...
Is the Japanese economy really in need of rate hikes right now?
December 10, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Is the Japanese economy really in need of rate hikes right now?
Wage growth at 3-3.5%, job growth at 0%, and inflation at 3% leaves households without much real spending power these days.
December 10, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Wage growth at 3-3.5%, job growth at 0%, and inflation at 3% leaves households without much real spending power these days.
A Wobble Of Ostriches
Fed debates over the exact level of neutral rates misses the big picture that even near-perfect conditions lately have not stabilized the soft labor market and their policies can't do much about it.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/a-wobble-o...
Fed debates over the exact level of neutral rates misses the big picture that even near-perfect conditions lately have not stabilized the soft labor market and their policies can't do much about it.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/a-wobble-o...
December 10, 2025 at 11:18 AM
A Wobble Of Ostriches
Fed debates over the exact level of neutral rates misses the big picture that even near-perfect conditions lately have not stabilized the soft labor market and their policies can't do much about it.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/a-wobble-o...
Fed debates over the exact level of neutral rates misses the big picture that even near-perfect conditions lately have not stabilized the soft labor market and their policies can't do much about it.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/a-wobble-o...
This is your irregular reminder that job openings are a low quality macro stat.
x.com/paures12/sta...
x.com/paures12/sta...
December 9, 2025 at 9:07 PM
This is your irregular reminder that job openings are a low quality macro stat.
x.com/paures12/sta...
x.com/paures12/sta...
UK bonds, left for dead, are outperforming of late.
December 9, 2025 at 6:13 PM
UK bonds, left for dead, are outperforming of late.
Pervasive Complacency
Vol has been crushed, growth views have narrowed to 2%, and investors assume every setback brings stimulus. With risks priced near zero even the smallest shocks will come as a surprise to the markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/pervasive-...
Vol has been crushed, growth views have narrowed to 2%, and investors assume every setback brings stimulus. With risks priced near zero even the smallest shocks will come as a surprise to the markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/pervasive-...
December 9, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Pervasive Complacency
Vol has been crushed, growth views have narrowed to 2%, and investors assume every setback brings stimulus. With risks priced near zero even the smallest shocks will come as a surprise to the markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/pervasive-...
Vol has been crushed, growth views have narrowed to 2%, and investors assume every setback brings stimulus. With risks priced near zero even the smallest shocks will come as a surprise to the markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/pervasive-...
Nice article from @ariweinberg in P&I (@asset_mgmt) on how ETFs are starting to make inroads in the institutional hedge fund area. While the lower fees and liquidity are both great, one of the biggest advantages is much lower ops diligence overhead.
www.pionline.com/asset-manage...
www.pionline.com/asset-manage...
December 8, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Nice article from @ariweinberg in P&I (@asset_mgmt) on how ETFs are starting to make inroads in the institutional hedge fund area. While the lower fees and liquidity are both great, one of the biggest advantages is much lower ops diligence overhead.
www.pionline.com/asset-manage...
www.pionline.com/asset-manage...
How growth comes in relative to expectations is the biggest driver of stock and bond performance over time. Expectations 12m forward growth are now back to the elevated levels last seen to kick off '25.
December 8, 2025 at 6:13 PM
How growth comes in relative to expectations is the biggest driver of stock and bond performance over time. Expectations 12m forward growth are now back to the elevated levels last seen to kick off '25.
The Fed’s Easing Paradox
Long end yields are rising even with greater expectations of easing. These moves higher in the rates that matter suggest the Fed's ability to pump the economy and markets may be limited ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
Long end yields are rising even with greater expectations of easing. These moves higher in the rates that matter suggest the Fed's ability to pump the economy and markets may be limited ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
December 8, 2025 at 11:16 AM
The Fed’s Easing Paradox
Long end yields are rising even with greater expectations of easing. These moves higher in the rates that matter suggest the Fed's ability to pump the economy and markets may be limited ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
Long end yields are rising even with greater expectations of easing. These moves higher in the rates that matter suggest the Fed's ability to pump the economy and markets may be limited ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
Remember a lot of the hard data is lagging because of the shutdown. h/t @thedailyshot
December 7, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Remember a lot of the hard data is lagging because of the shutdown. h/t @thedailyshot
Another great one this week - the new Building Better Portfolios pod where we get a little more into the origins of Unlimited (at the end) and unexpected way I wind down the day (at the beginning) with lots of great investing talk in between.
youtu.be/h5NRE4nv_XA?...
youtu.be/h5NRE4nv_XA?...
Unlimited Access with Bob Elliott (#11)
Welcome to Episode 11 of the Building Better Portfolios Podcast, hosted by Joshua Flade and Paisley Nardini. In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott, Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds —…
youtu.be
December 7, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Another great one this week - the new Building Better Portfolios pod where we get a little more into the origins of Unlimited (at the end) and unexpected way I wind down the day (at the beginning) with lots of great investing talk in between.
youtu.be/h5NRE4nv_XA?...
youtu.be/h5NRE4nv_XA?...
Couple great podcasts dropped this week, including this one with the Queen of Alts herself Shana Sissel talking through how we can make 2&20 quality strategies available to all investors in a way that is lower cost, more liquid and manager diversified.
youtu.be/dgrwW4BTQvQ?...
youtu.be/dgrwW4BTQvQ?...
Unmasking Hedge Funds: Low-Cost Alternatives & Global Macro Secrets with Bob Elliott
In this episode of What’s the Alternative, host Shana Orczyk Sissel sits down with Bob Elliott, Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds, to unpack the true potential of alternative investments for…
youtu.be
December 7, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Couple great podcasts dropped this week, including this one with the Queen of Alts herself Shana Sissel talking through how we can make 2&20 quality strategies available to all investors in a way that is lower cost, more liquid and manager diversified.
youtu.be/dgrwW4BTQvQ?...
youtu.be/dgrwW4BTQvQ?...
Rising goods prices driven by partial tariff flow through has offset disinflation in other categories leading to core inflation continuing to be moderately above the Fed's target. The challenge is there is likely more tariff-related price hikes to come.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
December 6, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Rising goods prices driven by partial tariff flow through has offset disinflation in other categories leading to core inflation continuing to be moderately above the Fed's target. The challenge is there is likely more tariff-related price hikes to come.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
Household demand growth has been a lot weaker in '25 than in '24 or '23. And Sept real PCE fell back to zero growth. An example of the household spending math problem with no job growth and slowing wages and higher inflation.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
December 6, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Household demand growth has been a lot weaker in '25 than in '24 or '23. And Sept real PCE fell back to zero growth. An example of the household spending math problem with no job growth and slowing wages and higher inflation.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
The most nonconensus idea I've written about lately is my blog app freebie of the week!
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
Fed’s Dead Baby, Fed’s Dead
Investors counting on a Fed pump ahead are likely to be disappointed given limited balance sheet expansion and rate cuts that are doing little to boost borrowing for the real economy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The most nonconensus idea I've written about lately is my blog app freebie of the week!
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
Nice article by Joseph Adinolfi suggesting the yen carry trade is much smaller than many doomers pitch. While folks often point to Aug '24 moves, they often don't mention US conditions sparked the moves, and the yen just rallied in line with US yields.
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
December 5, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Nice article by Joseph Adinolfi suggesting the yen carry trade is much smaller than many doomers pitch. While folks often point to Aug '24 moves, they often don't mention US conditions sparked the moves, and the yen just rallied in line with US yields.
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
Seems pretty clear at this point that tariff hikes have led to higher core goods prices for households.
December 5, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Seems pretty clear at this point that tariff hikes have led to higher core goods prices for households.