Bob Elliott
@bobeunlimited.bsky.social
CIO @ Unlimited | Fmr Bridgewater IC | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit (or is it #finsky?) | Comments are not investment advice
This is your irregular reminder that job openings are a low quality macro stat.
x.com/paures12/sta...
x.com/paures12/sta...
December 9, 2025 at 9:07 PM
This is your irregular reminder that job openings are a low quality macro stat.
x.com/paures12/sta...
x.com/paures12/sta...
UK bonds, left for dead, are outperforming of late.
December 9, 2025 at 6:13 PM
UK bonds, left for dead, are outperforming of late.
Pervasive Complacency
Vol has been crushed, growth views have narrowed to 2%, and investors assume every setback brings stimulus. With risks priced near zero even the smallest shocks will come as a surprise to the markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/pervasive-...
Vol has been crushed, growth views have narrowed to 2%, and investors assume every setback brings stimulus. With risks priced near zero even the smallest shocks will come as a surprise to the markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/pervasive-...
December 9, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Pervasive Complacency
Vol has been crushed, growth views have narrowed to 2%, and investors assume every setback brings stimulus. With risks priced near zero even the smallest shocks will come as a surprise to the markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/pervasive-...
Vol has been crushed, growth views have narrowed to 2%, and investors assume every setback brings stimulus. With risks priced near zero even the smallest shocks will come as a surprise to the markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/pervasive-...
Nice article from @ariweinberg in P&I (@asset_mgmt) on how ETFs are starting to make inroads in the institutional hedge fund area. While the lower fees and liquidity are both great, one of the biggest advantages is much lower ops diligence overhead.
www.pionline.com/asset-manage...
www.pionline.com/asset-manage...
December 8, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Nice article from @ariweinberg in P&I (@asset_mgmt) on how ETFs are starting to make inroads in the institutional hedge fund area. While the lower fees and liquidity are both great, one of the biggest advantages is much lower ops diligence overhead.
www.pionline.com/asset-manage...
www.pionline.com/asset-manage...
How growth comes in relative to expectations is the biggest driver of stock and bond performance over time. Expectations 12m forward growth are now back to the elevated levels last seen to kick off '25.
December 8, 2025 at 6:13 PM
How growth comes in relative to expectations is the biggest driver of stock and bond performance over time. Expectations 12m forward growth are now back to the elevated levels last seen to kick off '25.
The Fed’s Easing Paradox
Long end yields are rising even with greater expectations of easing. These moves higher in the rates that matter suggest the Fed's ability to pump the economy and markets may be limited ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
Long end yields are rising even with greater expectations of easing. These moves higher in the rates that matter suggest the Fed's ability to pump the economy and markets may be limited ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
December 8, 2025 at 11:16 AM
The Fed’s Easing Paradox
Long end yields are rising even with greater expectations of easing. These moves higher in the rates that matter suggest the Fed's ability to pump the economy and markets may be limited ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
Long end yields are rising even with greater expectations of easing. These moves higher in the rates that matter suggest the Fed's ability to pump the economy and markets may be limited ahead.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-feds-e...
Remember a lot of the hard data is lagging because of the shutdown. h/t @thedailyshot
December 7, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Remember a lot of the hard data is lagging because of the shutdown. h/t @thedailyshot
Rising goods prices driven by partial tariff flow through has offset disinflation in other categories leading to core inflation continuing to be moderately above the Fed's target. The challenge is there is likely more tariff-related price hikes to come.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
December 6, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Rising goods prices driven by partial tariff flow through has offset disinflation in other categories leading to core inflation continuing to be moderately above the Fed's target. The challenge is there is likely more tariff-related price hikes to come.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
Household demand growth has been a lot weaker in '25 than in '24 or '23. And Sept real PCE fell back to zero growth. An example of the household spending math problem with no job growth and slowing wages and higher inflation.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
December 6, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Household demand growth has been a lot weaker in '25 than in '24 or '23. And Sept real PCE fell back to zero growth. An example of the household spending math problem with no job growth and slowing wages and higher inflation.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
Nice article by Joseph Adinolfi suggesting the yen carry trade is much smaller than many doomers pitch. While folks often point to Aug '24 moves, they often don't mention US conditions sparked the moves, and the yen just rallied in line with US yields.
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
December 5, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Nice article by Joseph Adinolfi suggesting the yen carry trade is much smaller than many doomers pitch. While folks often point to Aug '24 moves, they often don't mention US conditions sparked the moves, and the yen just rallied in line with US yields.
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
Seems pretty clear at this point that tariff hikes have led to higher core goods prices for households.
December 5, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Seems pretty clear at this point that tariff hikes have led to higher core goods prices for households.
Fed’s Dead, Baby, Fed’s Dead
Investors counting on a Fed pump ahead are likely to be disappointed given limited balance sheet expansion and rate cuts that are doing little to boost borrowing for the real economy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
Investors counting on a Fed pump ahead are likely to be disappointed given limited balance sheet expansion and rate cuts that are doing little to boost borrowing for the real economy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
December 5, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Fed’s Dead, Baby, Fed’s Dead
Investors counting on a Fed pump ahead are likely to be disappointed given limited balance sheet expansion and rate cuts that are doing little to boost borrowing for the real economy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
Investors counting on a Fed pump ahead are likely to be disappointed given limited balance sheet expansion and rate cuts that are doing little to boost borrowing for the real economy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
Seems pretty clear at this point that foreign producers are not cutting their prices to pay for the tariff hikes given that import prices (measured before duties are imposed) have remained largely stable this year.
December 4, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Seems pretty clear at this point that foreign producers are not cutting their prices to pay for the tariff hikes given that import prices (measured before duties are imposed) have remained largely stable this year.
Latent Tariff Price Pressures Remain
With households now absorbing nearly all the higher costs from directly imported consumer goods, the question for ‘26 is whether biz start passing higher imported input costs on to consumers.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
With households now absorbing nearly all the higher costs from directly imported consumer goods, the question for ‘26 is whether biz start passing higher imported input costs on to consumers.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
December 4, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Latent Tariff Price Pressures Remain
With households now absorbing nearly all the higher costs from directly imported consumer goods, the question for ‘26 is whether biz start passing higher imported input costs on to consumers.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
With households now absorbing nearly all the higher costs from directly imported consumer goods, the question for ‘26 is whether biz start passing higher imported input costs on to consumers.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
The biggest question for the macro economy in the second half was whether the summer surge in demand would translate into better hiring, kicking off a positively reinforcing spending->income cycle. At this point its pretty clear it has not.
December 3, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The biggest question for the macro economy in the second half was whether the summer surge in demand would translate into better hiring, kicking off a positively reinforcing spending->income cycle. At this point its pretty clear it has not.
Admin's New Efforts Ensures Weak Labor Supply
Recent announcements by the admin suggest an expanding efforts to reduce immigration, even to green cards. The rhetoric suggests the labor supply drag seen so far may accelerate into '26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/admins-new...
Recent announcements by the admin suggest an expanding efforts to reduce immigration, even to green cards. The rhetoric suggests the labor supply drag seen so far may accelerate into '26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/admins-new...
December 3, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Admin's New Efforts Ensures Weak Labor Supply
Recent announcements by the admin suggest an expanding efforts to reduce immigration, even to green cards. The rhetoric suggests the labor supply drag seen so far may accelerate into '26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/admins-new...
Recent announcements by the admin suggest an expanding efforts to reduce immigration, even to green cards. The rhetoric suggests the labor supply drag seen so far may accelerate into '26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/admins-new...
‘Tis the Season to Tax Loss Harvest! While most asset are up this year, wide dispersion in alt manager returns provides a great opportunity to offset gains and reallocate to manager diversified strategies for '26. Managed futures just one example:
unlimitedfunds.com/tis-the-seas...
unlimitedfunds.com/tis-the-seas...
December 2, 2025 at 8:15 PM
‘Tis the Season to Tax Loss Harvest! While most asset are up this year, wide dispersion in alt manager returns provides a great opportunity to offset gains and reallocate to manager diversified strategies for '26. Managed futures just one example:
unlimitedfunds.com/tis-the-seas...
unlimitedfunds.com/tis-the-seas...
An indication that the incremental investment demand for gold has shifted from the East to the West over the last year, suggesting further gains are going to require even more US investment demand ahead.
December 2, 2025 at 6:28 PM
An indication that the incremental investment demand for gold has shifted from the East to the West over the last year, suggesting further gains are going to require even more US investment demand ahead.
The Yen Carry Trade Is Dead
Despite a falling FX and low rates, the yen carry trade remains muted. Naked FX borrowing ended with the GFC, with the only thing left a lingering nostalgia for a trade that mattered 20yrs ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-yen-ca...
Despite a falling FX and low rates, the yen carry trade remains muted. Naked FX borrowing ended with the GFC, with the only thing left a lingering nostalgia for a trade that mattered 20yrs ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-yen-ca...
December 2, 2025 at 11:46 AM
The Yen Carry Trade Is Dead
Despite a falling FX and low rates, the yen carry trade remains muted. Naked FX borrowing ended with the GFC, with the only thing left a lingering nostalgia for a trade that mattered 20yrs ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-yen-ca...
Despite a falling FX and low rates, the yen carry trade remains muted. Naked FX borrowing ended with the GFC, with the only thing left a lingering nostalgia for a trade that mattered 20yrs ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-yen-ca...
As a macro investor, I'd say there is plenty to learn from the last 100yrs.
Forgetting the pre-GFC period leaves a very narrow set of plausible set of macro regimes that could drive asset prices ahead and far too much hope that stocks have reliable double digit returns when they don't.
Forgetting the pre-GFC period leaves a very narrow set of plausible set of macro regimes that could drive asset prices ahead and far too much hope that stocks have reliable double digit returns when they don't.
December 1, 2025 at 11:08 PM
As a macro investor, I'd say there is plenty to learn from the last 100yrs.
Forgetting the pre-GFC period leaves a very narrow set of plausible set of macro regimes that could drive asset prices ahead and far too much hope that stocks have reliable double digit returns when they don't.
Forgetting the pre-GFC period leaves a very narrow set of plausible set of macro regimes that could drive asset prices ahead and far too much hope that stocks have reliable double digit returns when they don't.
Buffer ETFs are almost always a terrible deal for investors because of their high fees and gains capping, but hey at least the issuers get rich.
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
December 1, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Buffer ETFs are almost always a terrible deal for investors because of their high fees and gains capping, but hey at least the issuers get rich.
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
For all the worries about the banking system after the SVB kerfuffle, you'd hardly notice it on any charts giving a longer-term perspective. The biggest issue banks face these days is there are few real economy borrowers at these rate levels so they instead are doing financial lending.
December 1, 2025 at 6:13 PM
For all the worries about the banking system after the SVB kerfuffle, you'd hardly notice it on any charts giving a longer-term perspective. The biggest issue banks face these days is there are few real economy borrowers at these rate levels so they instead are doing financial lending.
Squinting At Black Friday Sales
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
December 1, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Squinting At Black Friday Sales
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
The Beige Book release on Wed confirmed the weak labor market reads from other data sources over the same timeframe and reminds us it'll be hard to maintain an income-driven expansion with negative job growth...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
November 30, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The Beige Book release on Wed confirmed the weak labor market reads from other data sources over the same timeframe and reminds us it'll be hard to maintain an income-driven expansion with negative job growth...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
Reeves budget set to raise $35bln certainly calmed the market this week and is set to continue the ongoing adjustment that should favor bonds ahead that I wrote about a few weeks ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
November 29, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Reeves budget set to raise $35bln certainly calmed the market this week and is set to continue the ongoing adjustment that should favor bonds ahead that I wrote about a few weeks ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...