Cory McCartan
@corymccartan.com
Asst. Prof. of Statistics & Political Science at Penn State. I study stats methods, gerrymandering, & elections. Bayesian. Founder of UGSDW and proud alum of HGSU-UAW L. 5118.
corymccartan.com
corymccartan.com
Interesting to think about the mechanism here
Poetic language evidently signals that the preceding system prompt should be interpreted in a different, less literal, context. One could imagine learning the direction in model-space that leads to this reframing, and optimizing prompts to get there
Poetic language evidently signals that the preceding system prompt should be interpreted in a different, less literal, context. One could imagine learning the direction in model-space that leads to this reframing, and optimizing prompts to get there
“Adversarial poetry.”
Love this. Obvs.
Love this. Obvs.
November 20, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Interesting to think about the mechanism here
Poetic language evidently signals that the preceding system prompt should be interpreted in a different, less literal, context. One could imagine learning the direction in model-space that leads to this reframing, and optimizing prompts to get there
Poetic language evidently signals that the preceding system prompt should be interpreted in a different, less literal, context. One could imagine learning the direction in model-space that leads to this reframing, and optimizing prompts to get there
Reposted by Cory McCartan
"Before folks assume that one side of this fight clearly acted in bad faith and the other didn’t, it’s worth indulging the possibility that Purcell itself is the culprit—and that its standardless-ness creates perverse incentives for lower courts in election cases."
Me on the TX redistricting case:
Me on the TX redistricting case:
Bonus 193: The Pernicious Effects of Purcell
The remarkable row between the majority and dissent in the three-judge district court's ruling in the Texas redistricting case can be traced directly to the Supreme Court's election-related case law.
www.stevevladeck.com
November 20, 2025 at 12:23 PM
"Before folks assume that one side of this fight clearly acted in bad faith and the other didn’t, it’s worth indulging the possibility that Purcell itself is the culprit—and that its standardless-ness creates perverse incentives for lower courts in election cases."
Me on the TX redistricting case:
Me on the TX redistricting case:
IF it holds, this would net Dems 1.6 seats, on average, due to mid-decade redistricting (D+1 seat in a Dem-favoring environment)
November 18, 2025 at 6:52 PM
IF it holds, this would net Dems 1.6 seats, on average, due to mid-decade redistricting (D+1 seat in a Dem-favoring environment)
D+8.5 (±2) would be 245 Dem seats on average
November 17, 2025 at 10:27 PM
D+8.5 (±2) would be 245 Dem seats on average
Have updated my simple House model spreadsheet with currently enacted districting plans.
Net effect is R+0.4 seats on average (!), with actually a _Dem_ advantage past a D+8 national environment.
Copy, edit, & explore for yourself: tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
Net effect is R+0.4 seats on average (!), with actually a _Dem_ advantage past a D+8 national environment.
Copy, edit, & explore for yourself: tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
November 17, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Have updated my simple House model spreadsheet with currently enacted districting plans.
Net effect is R+0.4 seats on average (!), with actually a _Dem_ advantage past a D+8 national environment.
Copy, edit, & explore for yourself: tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
Net effect is R+0.4 seats on average (!), with actually a _Dem_ advantage past a D+8 national environment.
Copy, edit, & explore for yourself: tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
Reposted by Cory McCartan
I urge members of the legal profession to realize that prosecuting individuals who seek to overturn the constitutional order is not "retaliation" in any normatively significant sense.
November 17, 2025 at 2:23 PM
I urge members of the legal profession to realize that prosecuting individuals who seek to overturn the constitutional order is not "retaliation" in any normatively significant sense.
Reposted by Cory McCartan
In short, if a party is not trusted on an issue, moving from their 'expected' position is not believed by those who hold their new position, while those who hold the party's 'expected' position are alienated.
Those who hold more restrictive views on refugees are more likely to see Labour as pro-immigration, while those who hold more liberal views tend to see Labour as anti-immigration
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
November 17, 2025 at 5:12 PM
In short, if a party is not trusted on an issue, moving from their 'expected' position is not believed by those who hold their new position, while those who hold the party's 'expected' position are alienated.
This is such great news!
For those who don't know, I spent a lot of my grad school career helping (and eventually failing) to form a union at Penn State. We got a vote, but we lost. I'm so happy and excited for the grad workers there now. They deserve a union.
November 14, 2025 at 3:52 PM
This is such great news!
Reposted by Cory McCartan
If you have to get permission to teach in your area of expertise from people who are definitionally not qualified to adjudicate your expertise then you are no longer working at a university.
You’re working at a state propaganda factory.
You’re working at a state propaganda factory.
COLLEGE STATION, Texas (AP) — Texas A&M adopts policy requiring professors to get OK from school president to discuss certain race and gender issues.
November 13, 2025 at 11:48 PM
If you have to get permission to teach in your area of expertise from people who are definitionally not qualified to adjudicate your expertise then you are no longer working at a university.
You’re working at a state propaganda factory.
You’re working at a state propaganda factory.
Reposted by Cory McCartan
November 12, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Where is the 27th amendment when you need it
Look at this new outrage. To open govt, we're retroactively letting 8 Senators sue for $500K each over having had their J6 phone toll records looked at. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/u...
Spending Bill Would Pave Way for Senators to Sue Over Phone Searches
www.nytimes.com
November 11, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Where is the 27th amendment when you need it
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...
November 9, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
November 6, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
2025 NYC Mayoral Race by Neighborhood
datawrapper.dwcdn.net
November 5, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
NYC precinct map: Mamdani now vs the primary
Purple = relative improvement vs primary
Orange = relative loss vs primary (e.g. GOP voters)
Takeaway? Mamdani improved significantly with Black voters since June! We see this in EI estimates as well: Mamdani likely won Black voters ~ 52/43 vs Cuomo
Purple = relative improvement vs primary
Orange = relative loss vs primary (e.g. GOP voters)
Takeaway? Mamdani improved significantly with Black voters since June! We see this in EI estimates as well: Mamdani likely won Black voters ~ 52/43 vs Cuomo
November 5, 2025 at 3:48 AM
NYC precinct map: Mamdani now vs the primary
Purple = relative improvement vs primary
Orange = relative loss vs primary (e.g. GOP voters)
Takeaway? Mamdani improved significantly with Black voters since June! We see this in EI estimates as well: Mamdani likely won Black voters ~ 52/43 vs Cuomo
Purple = relative improvement vs primary
Orange = relative loss vs primary (e.g. GOP voters)
Takeaway? Mamdani improved significantly with Black voters since June! We see this in EI estimates as well: Mamdani likely won Black voters ~ 52/43 vs Cuomo
Precinct-level NYC data: Mamdani exceeded our voterfile-based expectations, Cuomo slightly exceeded them; Sliwa fell way behind, especially in places he was expected to do well!
November 5, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Precinct-level NYC data: Mamdani exceeded our voterfile-based expectations, Cuomo slightly exceeded them; Sliwa fell way behind, especially in places he was expected to do well!
In VA Gov precinct data, we are seeing a ~6pp shift on Spanberger vote share (y axis) versus 2024 president (x axis). Bit smaller in GOP precincts and bit larger in Dem precincts
cf an R+5.5 shift (on vote share) from Biden '20 to McAullife in '21
cf an R+5.5 shift (on vote share) from Biden '20 to McAullife in '21
November 5, 2025 at 1:50 AM
In VA Gov precinct data, we are seeing a ~6pp shift on Spanberger vote share (y axis) versus 2024 president (x axis). Bit smaller in GOP precincts and bit larger in Dem precincts
cf an R+5.5 shift (on vote share) from Biden '20 to McAullife in '21
cf an R+5.5 shift (on vote share) from Biden '20 to McAullife in '21
Here at the CBS News data desk with @chriskenny.bsky.social and @simko.bsky.social! Looking at the VA numbers
November 5, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Here at the CBS News data desk with @chriskenny.bsky.social and @simko.bsky.social! Looking at the VA numbers
This election night I will be working the Data Desk at CBS News, focusing on the NYC mayoral race! Will try to post some things we are seeing in our precinct-level data and analyses, and maybe some cool maps like this one of Mamdani vs Harris support
November 4, 2025 at 6:07 PM
This election night I will be working the Data Desk at CBS News, focusing on the NYC mayoral race! Will try to post some things we are seeing in our precinct-level data and analyses, and maybe some cool maps like this one of Mamdani vs Harris support
Reposted by Cory McCartan
As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period...
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
November 1, 2025 at 11:20 PM
As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period...
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
Very important point in the WAR debate, but I think the radical centrists take their argument farther: they think the whole party's fortune can be shifted by moderating! When in fact voters judge moderates relative to the party line. Major fallacy of composition IMO
This is the sound of candidates losing the struggle against the crushing weight of partisan gravity.
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 31, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Very important point in the WAR debate, but I think the radical centrists take their argument farther: they think the whole party's fortune can be shifted by moderating! When in fact voters judge moderates relative to the party line. Major fallacy of composition IMO
Reposted by Cory McCartan
My main takeaway on the “moderation” debate is that Democrats would be better served by other debates besides left-right positioning, like how to develop new valence issues (corruption!) as wedge issues, and how to get attention for their policy proposals in the first place
October 28, 2025 at 1:16 AM
My main takeaway on the “moderation” debate is that Democrats would be better served by other debates besides left-right positioning, like how to develop new valence issues (corruption!) as wedge issues, and how to get attention for their policy proposals in the first place
Reposted by Cory McCartan
This is why the Dems' "white men" panic bothers me so much. Instead of listening to the people who have multigenerational experience with the worst aspects of Trump II's America, it turns the defense mechanism born from that experience (stay woke) into a pejorative.
Blacks and Jews have always been safer in America when they worked together and watched each other's backs.
They may be on the lookout for different clues, but more often than not they have their eye on the same people.
Like having a smoke alarm and a carbon monoxide detector in your kitchen.
They may be on the lookout for different clues, but more often than not they have their eye on the same people.
Like having a smoke alarm and a carbon monoxide detector in your kitchen.
They latch onto the number 14, so Black people clue Jewish folks in. Then they move to 88 and Jewish people return the favor. Then they move to 1919 and everybody's like, "At least TRY to hide, you idiot!"
October 23, 2025 at 3:38 PM
This is why the Dems' "white men" panic bothers me so much. Instead of listening to the people who have multigenerational experience with the worst aspects of Trump II's America, it turns the defense mechanism born from that experience (stay woke) into a pejorative.
A few weeks ago I shared a new WP on doing ecological inference—learning individual relationships from aggregate data, such as vote choice by race from precinct data.
Excited now to introduce `seine`, our open-source R package for doing EI easily and efficiently!
corymccartan.com/seine/
Excited now to introduce `seine`, our open-source R package for doing EI easily and efficiently!
corymccartan.com/seine/
October 21, 2025 at 3:31 PM
A few weeks ago I shared a new WP on doing ecological inference—learning individual relationships from aggregate data, such as vote choice by race from precinct data.
Excited now to introduce `seine`, our open-source R package for doing EI easily and efficiently!
corymccartan.com/seine/
Excited now to introduce `seine`, our open-source R package for doing EI easily and efficiently!
corymccartan.com/seine/
Reposted by Cory McCartan
It is egregious, but this is the normal framing for a normal minority party making normal policy demands in a shutdown standoff, which is how Democrats have chosen to present it. The whole ACA focus has made it easier, not harder, to push a "blame Dems for the shutdown" narrative.
Egregious framing from @apnews.com:
"Democrats are making good on their threat to close the government if President Donald Trump and Republicans won’t accede to their health care demands."
"Democrats are making good on their threat to close the government if President Donald Trump and Republicans won’t accede to their health care demands."
BREAKING: Democrats vote down a GOP bill to keep the government open, putting it on track for shutdown after midnight.
October 1, 2025 at 1:01 AM
It is egregious, but this is the normal framing for a normal minority party making normal policy demands in a shutdown standoff, which is how Democrats have chosen to present it. The whole ACA focus has made it easier, not harder, to push a "blame Dems for the shutdown" narrative.