Coffee Stan
@coffeestan.bsky.social
The more I come back to the paper the more insane the results are. I believe the analysis, and it essentially says that exposure to opioid use, particularly when it interacts with the economy going to shit, makes people more authoritarian.
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic,” by Arteaga (@caroartc.bsky.social) and Barone (@vickybarone.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects Of the Opioid Epidemic
Abstract. In this paper, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: t
doi.org
January 31, 2026 at 3:42 PM
The more I come back to the paper the more insane the results are. I believe the analysis, and it essentially says that exposure to opioid use, particularly when it interacts with the economy going to shit, makes people more authoritarian.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/u...
This is an insane heist by Schumer. Dems get to only shut down DHS while the rest of the government is funded.
This is an insane heist by Schumer. Dems get to only shut down DHS while the rest of the government is funded.
Spending Deal Leaves Government in Shutdown Limbo for the Weekend
www.nytimes.com
January 31, 2026 at 3:05 PM
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/u...
This is an insane heist by Schumer. Dems get to only shut down DHS while the rest of the government is funded.
This is an insane heist by Schumer. Dems get to only shut down DHS while the rest of the government is funded.
Reposted by Coffee Stan
I know all eyes are on Minneapolis, but there's a fast-approaching nightmare in Springfield, Ohio.
Trump is revoking protected status for tens of thousands of Haitians living there on Feb. 3.
Reportedly, on Feb. 4, 1000 ICE agents are arriving to remove this population. Ethnic cleansing.
Trump is revoking protected status for tens of thousands of Haitians living there on Feb. 3.
Reportedly, on Feb. 4, 1000 ICE agents are arriving to remove this population. Ethnic cleansing.
January 28, 2026 at 11:38 PM
I know all eyes are on Minneapolis, but there's a fast-approaching nightmare in Springfield, Ohio.
Trump is revoking protected status for tens of thousands of Haitians living there on Feb. 3.
Reportedly, on Feb. 4, 1000 ICE agents are arriving to remove this population. Ethnic cleansing.
Trump is revoking protected status for tens of thousands of Haitians living there on Feb. 3.
Reportedly, on Feb. 4, 1000 ICE agents are arriving to remove this population. Ethnic cleansing.
Predictably, the scoop that Biss met with AIPAC turned out to basically be a nothingburger. The whole pattern in the race where, because Biss is Jewish, people presume he's AIPAC aligned is worrying. AIPAC is getting uncomfortably close to a left wing blood libel.
UPDATE: Daniel Biss has now published the full policy paper on his Substack (below) and explaining his conversations with AIPAC, taking several swings at Laura Fine in turn
January 23, 2026 at 11:16 PM
Predictably, the scoop that Biss met with AIPAC turned out to basically be a nothingburger. The whole pattern in the race where, because Biss is Jewish, people presume he's AIPAC aligned is worrying. AIPAC is getting uncomfortably close to a left wing blood libel.
Reposted by Coffee Stan
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
January 21, 2026 at 7:48 PM
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Guy who is frantically rushing to IKEA before the tariffs hit
January 17, 2026 at 6:18 PM
Guy who is frantically rushing to IKEA before the tariffs hit
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/w...
“I learned from them very early that what one does with Nazis is kill them,” he said at a 2023 conference on antinuclear activism in Johannesburg. “I am not a pacifist.”
“I learned from them very early that what one does with Nazis is kill them,” he said at a 2023 conference on antinuclear activism in Johannesburg. “I am not a pacifist.”
Renfrew Christie Dies at 76; Sabotaged Racist Regime’s Nuclear Program
www.nytimes.com
January 16, 2026 at 5:23 PM
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/w...
“I learned from them very early that what one does with Nazis is kill them,” he said at a 2023 conference on antinuclear activism in Johannesburg. “I am not a pacifist.”
“I learned from them very early that what one does with Nazis is kill them,” he said at a 2023 conference on antinuclear activism in Johannesburg. “I am not a pacifist.”
It is extremely funny that ICE can't drive on ice
January 15, 2026 at 4:58 AM
It is extremely funny that ICE can't drive on ice
If the price level goes up, so does the Present Value of Expected Future Cash Flows. This is rational.
lol. lmao. lmfao.
US stocks soar to record highs as Fed independence gets tossed to the curb @stockcharts
SPX 7000 very possible in this final hour.
SPX 7000 very possible in this final hour.
January 13, 2026 at 3:02 AM
If the price level goes up, so does the Present Value of Expected Future Cash Flows. This is rational.
Not saying this isn't true, but this is what you leak when it was actually you and you recognize you're beat.
Wild reporting from Bloomberg. Jeanine Pirro apparently freelanced the subpoenas and criminal investigation of Jerome Powell.
January 13, 2026 at 2:47 AM
Not saying this isn't true, but this is what you leak when it was actually you and you recognize you're beat.
Is this good chat?
January 1, 2026 at 6:44 PM
Is this good chat?
December 28, 2025 at 1:20 AM
What's always bugged me about this is that bus-subway transfers are already free. Any commuter who takes the subway (which I'd assume are most, especially with lower income people who are more likely to be stuck with a long commute) sees no benefit from this policy?
Zohran Mamdani explains that thousands and thousands of New Yorkers are already eligible for free and reduce public transportation, but because of the bureaucratic hurdles they never get enrolled in the program.
That's why he wants to just make the bus free.
That's why he wants to just make the bus free.
December 18, 2025 at 10:34 PM
What's always bugged me about this is that bus-subway transfers are already free. Any commuter who takes the subway (which I'd assume are most, especially with lower income people who are more likely to be stuck with a long commute) sees no benefit from this policy?
Reposted by Coffee Stan
So, El Fasher looks like one of the worst single event atrocities to happen this century so far, but the evidence has come in such a trickle it seems to only now be getting verified
At least 60,000 murdered in Sudanese city, which resembles ‘a slaughterhouse’
Satellite evidence shows extent of paramilitary massacre in El Fasher
www.irishtimes.com
December 13, 2025 at 3:50 AM
So, El Fasher looks like one of the worst single event atrocities to happen this century so far, but the evidence has come in such a trickle it seems to only now be getting verified
This is bizarre, she has the most money in the race by far. Why cancel to get more?
It appears Kat Abughazaleh held a fundraiser dinner last night on the southwest side, per this video shared on IG by an organization and her campaign
She was slated to attend a Chicago DSA forum in Skokie but was a last-minute scratch with little explanation
She was slated to attend a Chicago DSA forum in Skokie but was a last-minute scratch with little explanation
December 6, 2025 at 10:23 PM
This is bizarre, she has the most money in the race by far. Why cancel to get more?
Reposted by Coffee Stan
My phone switched to dark mode at 4:34. Despair.
November 29, 2025 at 10:35 PM
My phone switched to dark mode at 4:34. Despair.
Reposted by Coffee Stan
An Old Wizard Just Gave Me An Evil Artifact - Now I And My Possibly Homosexual Best Friend Have to Throw It Into a Volcano?!
On the other hand I think it would be very funny to retitle literary fiction light novel style. “Oh No! This Author Stand-In is Unhappily Married”
This attitude is how you end up with light novel titles.
November 29, 2025 at 8:47 PM
An Old Wizard Just Gave Me An Evil Artifact - Now I And My Possibly Homosexual Best Friend Have to Throw It Into a Volcano?!
Reposted by Coffee Stan
Analysis of satellite data by Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab has found no evidence of civilian life in al-Fashir. It concludes that all 250k civilians who remained at the time of its fall to the RSF have either fled, are hiding, or have been killed.
files-profile.medicine.yale.edu/documents/24...
files-profile.medicine.yale.edu/documents/24...
files-profile.medicine.yale.edu
November 27, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Analysis of satellite data by Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab has found no evidence of civilian life in al-Fashir. It concludes that all 250k civilians who remained at the time of its fall to the RSF have either fled, are hiding, or have been killed.
files-profile.medicine.yale.edu/documents/24...
files-profile.medicine.yale.edu/documents/24...
Reposted by Coffee Stan
the dating pool for 30-something straight women is so bleak that some are willing to settle for geriatric ex-South Carolina governors who frequent the Appalachian trail
the dating pool for 30-something straight women is so bleak that some are willing to settle for geriatric Kennedys with worms-that-aren't-really-worms for brains
November 18, 2025 at 4:14 AM
the dating pool for 30-something straight women is so bleak that some are willing to settle for geriatric ex-South Carolina governors who frequent the Appalachian trail
Reposted by Coffee Stan
Don't want to unfairly dunk on this guy, because pro-Eisenhower propaganda has convinced people that he was George McGovern with an R next to his name, but Eisenhower was an awful President for anyone who considers themselves a friend of progress, and in this thread, I'll cover why. 🧵
November 12, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Don't want to unfairly dunk on this guy, because pro-Eisenhower propaganda has convinced people that he was George McGovern with an R next to his name, but Eisenhower was an awful President for anyone who considers themselves a friend of progress, and in this thread, I'll cover why. 🧵
I want to slide in your DMs like Larry Summers slid into Epstein's emails
November 12, 2025 at 10:44 PM
I want to slide in your DMs like Larry Summers slid into Epstein's emails
Reposted by Coffee Stan
Throughout this shutdown, Democrats have shown that we have the backbone to actually fight for what we believe in: lower costs, accessible healthcare, and a Congress that can be a check on Trump’s chaos.
Vague Republican promises are not enough — no deal without real progress on healthcare.
Vague Republican promises are not enough — no deal without real progress on healthcare.
November 10, 2025 at 12:08 AM
Throughout this shutdown, Democrats have shown that we have the backbone to actually fight for what we believe in: lower costs, accessible healthcare, and a Congress that can be a check on Trump’s chaos.
Vague Republican promises are not enough — no deal without real progress on healthcare.
Vague Republican promises are not enough — no deal without real progress on healthcare.
The funniest thing is this wouldn't stop the nuclear option, since the Senate has the authority on how to interpret this amendment.
November 7, 2025 at 6:25 PM
The funniest thing is this wouldn't stop the nuclear option, since the Senate has the authority on how to interpret this amendment.
Reposted by Coffee Stan
Oh, the neocons are gonna find some secret weapon to stop the groypers? Would this be the same one they used to stop Trump?
www.unpopularfront.news/p/who-will-w...
www.unpopularfront.news/p/who-will-w...
Who Will Win the GOP Civil War?
Hint: Not the Neocons.
www.unpopularfront.news
November 4, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Oh, the neocons are gonna find some secret weapon to stop the groypers? Would this be the same one they used to stop Trump?
www.unpopularfront.news/p/who-will-w...
www.unpopularfront.news/p/who-will-w...