Chris Warshaw
@chriswarshaw.bsky.social
Professor at Georgetown’s McCourt School of Public Policy. Focus on representation, elections, & public opinion. Co-Author: Dynamic Democracy, PlanScore.org, & TrueViews.org.
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
I wonder if the United States can learn anything from the last time a major industrialized country decided to isolate itself from the rest of the world?
Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)
Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)
November 11, 2025 at 3:35 PM
I wonder if the United States can learn anything from the last time a major industrialized country decided to isolate itself from the rest of the world?
Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)
Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
Love to have this all in one spot. The ANES truly is a gift.
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org
November 1, 2025 at 9:49 PM
Love to have this all in one spot. The ANES truly is a gift.
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
We’re adding this and other maps from this year’s fast-moving midcycle redistricting to our library of current plans:
- Ohio planscore.org/library/ohio/
- North Carolina planscore.org/library/nort...
- California planscore.org/library/cali...
- Texas planscore.org/library/texas/
- Ohio planscore.org/library/ohio/
- North Carolina planscore.org/library/nort...
- California planscore.org/library/cali...
- Texas planscore.org/library/texas/
Thanks to the invaluable @redistrictnet.bluesky.bot, @donnermaps.bsky.social has uploaded the Ohio redistricting commission’s new proposed congressional map to @davesredist.bsky.social
Screenshot shaded to 2024 presidential results.
davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap...
Screenshot shaded to 2024 presidential results.
davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap...
October 30, 2025 at 11:37 PM
We’re adding this and other maps from this year’s fast-moving midcycle redistricting to our library of current plans:
- Ohio planscore.org/library/ohio/
- North Carolina planscore.org/library/nort...
- California planscore.org/library/cali...
- Texas planscore.org/library/texas/
- Ohio planscore.org/library/ohio/
- North Carolina planscore.org/library/nort...
- California planscore.org/library/cali...
- Texas planscore.org/library/texas/
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
October 29, 2025 at 8:16 PM
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
My Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed w @chriswarshaw.bsky.social, "Gerrymandering is Bad. Expanding it is even worse," is out.
1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow.
www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...
1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow.
www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...
Gerrymandering is bad. Expanding it is even worse. | Opinion
Constant redistricting of electoral maps is likely to make congressional elections even less competitive.
www.inquirer.com
October 20, 2025 at 1:59 PM
My Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed w @chriswarshaw.bsky.social, "Gerrymandering is Bad. Expanding it is even worse," is out.
1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow.
www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...
1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow.
www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
Although the Callais case at SCOTUS involves a high-profile congressional redistricting dispute, important to remember that most Section 2 cases (2/3!) continue to involve local government bodies like city councils & school boards. - mostly challenges to at-large systems.
October 13, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Although the Callais case at SCOTUS involves a high-profile congressional redistricting dispute, important to remember that most Section 2 cases (2/3!) continue to involve local government bodies like city councils & school boards. - mostly challenges to at-large systems.
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
need Sunday reading? explore what's on the ballot next month!
I put together the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.
so explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
and let me highlight three under-radar races, in 🧵 below. ⬇️
I put together the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.
so explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
and let me highlight three under-radar races, in 🧵 below. ⬇️
October 12, 2025 at 4:06 PM
need Sunday reading? explore what's on the ballot next month!
I put together the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.
so explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
and let me highlight three under-radar races, in 🧵 below. ⬇️
I put together the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.
so explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
and let me highlight three under-radar races, in 🧵 below. ⬇️
This looks awesome.
we have been working on this new polling aggregation website for a few months now, and are excited to share it with the world! plenty more features and polls to come.
new polls website just dropped fiftyplusone.news
October 9, 2025 at 3:35 PM
This looks awesome.
In recent years, white turnout has spiked. But turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated. @devincaughey.bsky.social, Bernard Fraga, @rpgriffin.bsky.social & I have a summary in @goodauth.bsky.social of our work on turnout in U.S. elections. goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...
2024 brought high voter turnout – but a growing racial gap
New data shows that while white turnout has spiked, turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated.
goodauthority.org
October 7, 2025 at 4:39 PM
In recent years, white turnout has spiked. But turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated. @devincaughey.bsky.social, Bernard Fraga, @rpgriffin.bsky.social & I have a summary in @goodauth.bsky.social of our work on turnout in U.S. elections. goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
I think this is one of the more important articles I've written in my career. Draws on lots of research and data. I hope it can be a reference for people and that it will make a positive impact. Goes out to all Strength In Numbers readers tomorrow morning: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...
October 6, 2025 at 7:30 PM
I think this is one of the more important articles I've written in my career. Draws on lots of research and data. I hope it can be a reference for people and that it will make a positive impact. Goes out to all Strength In Numbers readers tomorrow morning: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
for the weekend crowd: take a moment today to explore what's on the ballot next month!
it's not all about NYC, VA, and NJ: i put together a guide of the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.
explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
it's not all about NYC, VA, and NJ: i put together a guide of the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.
explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
October 4, 2025 at 5:03 PM
for the weekend crowd: take a moment today to explore what's on the ballot next month!
it's not all about NYC, VA, and NJ: i put together a guide of the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.
explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
it's not all about NYC, VA, and NJ: i put together a guide of the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.
explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
I'm excited to share that we're running a junior faculty search in American politics. Proud to see GWU continue to invest in political science. Link: www.gwu.jobs/postings/122...
Assistant Professor of Political Science
The Department of Political Science invites applications for a tenure-track position in American Politics at the rank of assistant professor beginning as early as Fall 2026. This position is pending f...
www.gwu.jobs
September 30, 2025 at 12:21 AM
I'm excited to share that we're running a junior faculty search in American politics. Proud to see GWU continue to invest in political science. Link: www.gwu.jobs/postings/122...
Has someone done an analysis of whether there’s a correlation between the racial composition of districts and Dem’s relative performances vs 2024 in special elections? @the-downballot.com @gelliottmorris.com
September 24, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Has someone done an analysis of whether there’s a correlation between the racial composition of districts and Dem’s relative performances vs 2024 in special elections? @the-downballot.com @gelliottmorris.com
PlanScore now has 2024 precinct-level election data integrated into its analysis (mostly from official sources compiled by the NYT for its national map) for about 25 states. You can use it to check the fairness of maps in your state.
We're slowly integrating 2024 presidential vote into the
@planscore.org model for evaluating the fairness of new districting plans. You can now score maps using 2024 precinct data in CA, TX, and MO. More states coming soon. planscore.org
@planscore.org model for evaluating the fairness of new districting plans. You can now score maps using 2024 precinct data in CA, TX, and MO. More states coming soon. planscore.org
PlanScore
PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...
planscore.org
September 24, 2025 at 1:12 PM
PlanScore now has 2024 precinct-level election data integrated into its analysis (mostly from official sources compiled by the NYT for its national map) for about 25 states. You can use it to check the fairness of maps in your state.
@davesredist.bsky.social continues to be an invaluable resource for scholars and practitioners around redistricting.
We added 2024 election data for NC and MO, thanks to @redistdatahub.bsky.social !!
And 2024 election data for KS, thanks to @brianamos.com (IKE Lab, VEST).
And recently 2024 election data for MN, thanks to the MN State Government!!!
And 2024 election data for KS, thanks to @brianamos.com (IKE Lab, VEST).
And recently 2024 election data for MN, thanks to the MN State Government!!!
September 20, 2025 at 12:51 AM
@davesredist.bsky.social continues to be an invaluable resource for scholars and practitioners around redistricting.
Really enjoyed this discussion about the impacts of partisan redistricting and gerrymandering for control of Congress.
Will Partisan Redistricting Tip Congress?
New #ScienceOfPolitics with Eric McGhee and Daniel Kolliner
www.niskanencenter.org/will-partisa...
New #ScienceOfPolitics with Eric McGhee and Daniel Kolliner
www.niskanencenter.org/will-partisa...
Will partisan redistricting tip Congress? - Niskanen Center
Eric McGhee finds that both parties are increasingly extreme in gerrymandering but that prior mid-decade redistricting gains have been small. Daniel Kolliner finds that Republican control of redistric...
www.niskanencenter.org
September 18, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Really enjoyed this discussion about the impacts of partisan redistricting and gerrymandering for control of Congress.
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
I remain puzzled by people who think everything is at risk and conclude that we should do exactly what they already wanted www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/o...
Liberalism used to be obsessed with tradeoffs (the basis of all Slate pitches!) and would mock tradeoff denialism on the right. Not any more.
Liberalism used to be obsessed with tradeoffs (the basis of all Slate pitches!) and would mock tradeoff denialism on the right. Not any more.
September 18, 2025 at 5:46 PM
I remain puzzled by people who think everything is at risk and conclude that we should do exactly what they already wanted www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/o...
Liberalism used to be obsessed with tradeoffs (the basis of all Slate pitches!) and would mock tradeoff denialism on the right. Not any more.
Liberalism used to be obsessed with tradeoffs (the basis of all Slate pitches!) and would mock tradeoff denialism on the right. Not any more.
Hey DC-area friends - you should subscribe to the non-profit Banner's new Montgomery County vertical. They have 8 full-time journalists covering Montgomery County issues. Super exciting! www.thebanner.com/montgomery/
September 17, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Hey DC-area friends - you should subscribe to the non-profit Banner's new Montgomery County vertical. They have 8 full-time journalists covering Montgomery County issues. Super exciting! www.thebanner.com/montgomery/
We're slowly integrating 2024 presidential vote into the
@planscore.org model for evaluating the fairness of new districting plans. You can now score maps using 2024 precinct data in CA, TX, and MO. More states coming soon. planscore.org
@planscore.org model for evaluating the fairness of new districting plans. You can now score maps using 2024 precinct data in CA, TX, and MO. More states coming soon. planscore.org
PlanScore
PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...
planscore.org
September 16, 2025 at 12:45 PM
We're slowly integrating 2024 presidential vote into the
@planscore.org model for evaluating the fairness of new districting plans. You can now score maps using 2024 precinct data in CA, TX, and MO. More states coming soon. planscore.org
@planscore.org model for evaluating the fairness of new districting plans. You can now score maps using 2024 precinct data in CA, TX, and MO. More states coming soon. planscore.org
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
This is a paper I really care about. I feel the core message is very important for social scientists in general, and political scientists in particular.
"Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered."
(with A+ co-authors)
"Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered."
(with A+ co-authors)
September 11, 2025 at 2:29 AM
This is a paper I really care about. I feel the core message is very important for social scientists in general, and political scientists in particular.
"Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered."
(with A+ co-authors)
"Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered."
(with A+ co-authors)
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
This also means people should update their view of sentiment regarding Biden economy being all media effects.
Here's what that looks like graphically, still haven't seen a fully revised series for the impact of the birth-death adjustment yet. Multiple months of negative payrolls growth in 2024 after this revision.
September 9, 2025 at 2:44 PM
This also means people should update their view of sentiment regarding Biden economy being all media effects.
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
Disease prevalence in US states before & after vaccine introduction 🧪
From Edward Tufte & graphics.wsj.com/infectious-d...
From Edward Tufte & graphics.wsj.com/infectious-d...
September 4, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Disease prevalence in US states before & after vaccine introduction 🧪
From Edward Tufte & graphics.wsj.com/infectious-d...
From Edward Tufte & graphics.wsj.com/infectious-d...
August 24, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
The gerrymandering game has only just begun. The 2030s will be worse. Perhaps only then will we get serious about major reforms, such as instituting proportional representation for House seats in states with more than two or three legislators.
August 21, 2025 at 3:06 PM
The gerrymandering game has only just begun. The 2030s will be worse. Perhaps only then will we get serious about major reforms, such as instituting proportional representation for House seats in states with more than two or three legislators.
Reposted by Chris Warshaw
What would you say if you saw it in another country?
August 21, 2025 at 12:58 AM
What would you say if you saw it in another country?