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Paul Nadeau

@pauljnadeau.bsky.social

2.2K followers 430 following 5.9K posts

Trade, politics, and geoeconomics. Editor of Tokyo Review, adjunct professor with Temple University Japan, visiting research fellow with the Institute of Geoeconomics/Asia Pacific Initiative, should be GM of the Quebec Nordiques. Usual disclaimers.

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · Apr 4

If you know any international students in the United States, a colleague of mine made a flier to help students with finding an immigration lawyer. Please share and circulate among your networks:

I'm an international student! How do I find an immigration lawyer?

Where to look:
-Free: Check immigrationlawhelp.org and search by state.
-Paid: ALIA (the American Immigration Lawyers Association) and NIPNLG (the National Immigration Project) maintain directories of immigration attorneys.

What to prepare:
Bring any immigration documents you have (visas, letters from USCIS, etc.) to your first meeting with an attorney.

Avoid scams:
-Ask for proof that the provider is a licensed attorney or otherwise recognized or accredited by the Department of Justice
-Get a contract for legal services
-Never pay to access USCIS forms - they're free

Scan the code or visit https://linktr.ee/lawyerinfo for more resources + info

*this flyer is not legal advice*

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 4h

Damn, I've missed a good Fred reference

Reposted by Paul Nadeau

Amanda Marcotte @amandamarcotte.bsky.social · 18h

For those tempted to say Young Republicans have always been this way, they really have not. When I worked on campus and did bipartisan college events after, they were very much not like this.

That’s why groups like YCT and eventually TPUSA formed — because Young Republicans weren’t radical enough.

Politico @politico.com · 1d

EXCLUSIVE: Thousands of leaked messages show leaders of Young Republican groups joking about gas chambers, slavery and rape in a private Telegram chat.

Inside rising GOP leaders’ racist chats — obtained by POLITICO and spanning more than 7 months👇

‘I love Hitler’: Leaked messages expose Young Republicans’ racist chat

Thousands of private messages reveal young GOP leaders joking about gas chambers, slavery and rape.

www.politico.com

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 4h

(but some things are more possible than others)

Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 4h

Me, anytime someone tries to ask me what I think is going to happen with the PM election in Japan

a man in a green celtics shirt is holding a microphone in front of a crowd with the words anything is possible in red letters

Alt: a man in a green celtics shirt is holding a microphone in front of a crowd with the words anything is possible in red letters

media.tenor.com

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Reposted by Paul Nadeau

The Japan Times @japantimes.co.jp · 5h

Japan turns to anti-dumping measures as international trade gets complicated, with an uptick in the number of probes this year indicating an evolving strategy.

Japan turns to anti-dumping measures as international trade gets complicated

An uptick in number of probes this year indicates an evolving strategy.

ebx.sh

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 7h

Which is why Sanseito concerns me beyond their limited approval...in a situation where no one's really popular, seeing a media-oriented right wing party pick up a few seats because they're the latest fascination would give them more attention than they've earned and might solidify them in the field

Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 7h

Feels like it, honestly, and would track with media consumption patterns and patterns you see in other countries

Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 7h

Makes me respect Abe's ability to grab Japan by the ankles, turn it upside down, and shake out all the seats he could get out of there. I don't think Takaichi nor the people around her have the same skill, and none of the possible coalition parties have a strong vote-getting operation themselves

Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 7h

Spitballing now, but I wonder if this might encourage Takaichi to call an election if/when she's confirmed as PM since no one's really ascendant and you could catch Sanseito offguard before they'd build an electoral machine, though it would be high risk since Sanseito would get more seats regardless

Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 7h

While this isn't terribly helpful in terms of coalition-building (you count seats, not approval ratings), it still suggests the limitations to any coalition in trying to lock down public support; it's still very much the LDP and a bunch of guys

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 7h

And looking at the age breakdown in support reveals Sanseito as Japan's unc party; they're not really very strong with any other age bracket

Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 7h

Approval ratings for Japan's parties Saneito polling about as well as CDPJ, just behind DPFP, and ahead of Komeito and pretty solidly Ishin, but all still far behind the LDP (as long as you don't count "no preference", who could blow them all out of the water if they finally settled on a candidate)

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 11h

I don't think it's entirely an accident that you see that among one particular research focus

Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 18h

One of my personal rules for writing about another country is to never use the word "should", as in, "[country] should..." because it's not my place to tell them what they should do

Which I mention because way too many foreign commentators are comfortable telling Japan's parties what they should do

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 18h

Right? He seems made for this moment

Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 1d

Disagree...the guys in the picture accurately assessed the problems

Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah I started responding to your original question and then things got out of hand

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 1d

On one hand, yes. On the other hand, there's so many miscalculations going on (IMO) that I don't put anything past them anymore.

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 1d

But anyway, what was supposed to have been a bring-the-party together election turned into Aso and the conservatives spiking the football, driving out Komeito, and antagonizing the moderates.

It is, as they say Cotton, a bold strategy.

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 1d

I don't know how this would work, but it feels like every party would lose seats if the election was called tomorrow

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 1d

The whole mess is also not what the public wants, and they'll probably resent being called to vote again or anything that doesn't address kitchen table bread-and-butter issues that they're looking for action on.

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 1d

Maybe he thought they could collaborate with Ishin or DPFP, maybe he thought that the LDP could win more votes by becoming a true conservative party, but probably both. But losing Komeito will almost immediately cost the LDP numbers they can't afford to lose in the next election

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 1d

Komeito made the LDP more moderate, but their vote-getting operation, once an immaculate machine that help give the LDP is dominant majorities, isn't what it used to be, so Aso may have felt this was the time to boot Komeito and become a more ideologically coherent conservative party

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 1d

She and Aso badly misread the situation in front of them, which IMO is what precipitated the current situation. Not sure if reporting's confirmed this, but it feels like they pushed out Komeito or at least created a situation where Komeito would feel compelled to leave

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Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 1d

To go back to your immediate question, conservatives hate Ishiba but his status as a maverick within the party made it unlikely he'd ever unite the LDP. Koizumi would probably dampen the tensions but not really resolve them, while we're seeing how it's playing out with Takaichi.

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